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Page added on September 15, 2017
Scientists warning of sand scarcity
f you’re looking for a way to express something that’s staggeringly hard to count, you won’t find a more reliable metaphor than grains of sand.
There is indeed quite a bit of it – about 7.5 quintillion grains on Earth’s beaches and deserts, according to one estimate. But if you think that this would be sufficient to supply an ever-expanding global economy with all the concrete, asphalt, glass, and semiconductors it could possibly desire, think again.
Our consumption of sand is outpacing our understanding of the economics and environmental impacts of extracting, transporting, and consuming it, finds research published last Thursday in the journal Science. Out of the complexity of the global sand trade has emerged something of a butterfly effect, in which an economic decision in one place can wreak social and environmental havoc on the other side of the world. Using a holistic, interdisciplinary approach called telecoupling, the researchers’ analysis of the global sand trade opens a window into the global interconnection of human and natural systems.
“The demand is skyrocketing, and the supply is increasingly limited. And also the consequences, both the environmental and the socioeconomic impact, are enormous,” says Jianguo “Jack” Liu, director of Michigan State University’s Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability and a co-author of the paper.
Sand mafias and vanishing islands
Modern society is literally built on sand. Most of our buildings and bridges are made with concrete, which consists mostly of sand and gravel. The same is true for the asphalt that covers our roads and parking lots. Glass, from window panes to eyeglass lenses to smartphone screens, is made by melting sand, and the semiconductors in our electronics come from heating silica sand. Another type of sand is increasingly used in hydraulic fracturing, where it is used to prop open cracks deep in the Earth for fossil fuel extraction. After air and water, sand is humankind’s most consumed natural resource.
The profits of this easy-to-get, hard-to-regulate material, whose trade is valued at $70 billion annually, have lured organized crime. In India and Bangladesh, “sand mafias” have been implicated in the murder of hundreds of people in recent years. In Indonesia, more than 20 islands have vanished since 2005 because of illegal sand mining for developments in Singapore. Illegal sand mining in Sri Lanka is thought to have worsened the effects of the 2004 tsunami. In addition to coastal erosion, sand mining is also fueling habitat destruction, water scarcity, and crop failures.
“This over-exploitation makes the local communities more vulnerable to natural hazards,” says Aurora Torres, a research fellow at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research and at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and the paper’s co-author. Dr. Torres cites storm surges, food and water shortages, and other events that she says could “increase or create sociopolitical conflicts, and eventually displace entire populations.”
She notes that she is amazed at how little attention this issue receives from the international research community.
In the past, most sand was mined locally, but regional shortages and rising demand, driven in part by a construction boom in Asia, have transformed it into a global commodity. Singapore, for instance, imports its sand from Indonesia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. India imports sand from Indonesia and the Philippines. And even the United Arab Emirates, having exhausted its sand resources on Dubai’s artificial islands, now buys its sand from Australia.
In February, members of Florida’s congressional delegation from both parties introduced a bill to repeal a law prohibiting the Sunshine State from importing sand from the Bahamas and other foreign sources.
A 2014 report from the United Nations Environment Programme found that the mining of sand and gravel “greatly exceeds natural renewal rates.”
“A large discrepancy exists between the magnitude of the problem and public awareness of it,” the report concludes. “The absence of global monitoring of [sand and gravel] extraction undoubtedly contributes to the gap in knowledge, which translates into a lack of action.”
A tragedy of the commons
Telecoupling, a way of looking at the interactions between human systems and natural systems and their effects around the globe, aims to fill this gap. Developed over the past decade by Dr. Liu, it examines and quantifies five interconnected components – systems, agents, flows, causes, and effects – so that it can address the socioeconomic and ecological impacts all at once. It has been used to gain insight into a number of complex issues related to sustainability, from explaining how increased demand for meat in Asia drives deforestation in Brazil, to how goat farming in the Bahamas can affect populations of Kirtland’s warblers, North America’s rarest songbird.
“What telecoupling is really about is human beings are becoming a major force in the world,” says Paul Ehrlich, the Stanford biologist whose 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” sounded the alarm about humanity’s impact on limited natural resources. “Can you imagine we’ve gotten to the point where really serious scientists are worrying about the supply of sand? I mean, give me a break.”
Telecoupling research also reveals what Liu sees as a vicious cycle in our resource consumption and development. “The more you consume, the more you want to develop even in distant places, until there is nothing left,” he adds in an email. “That leads to the tragedy of the commons.”
Sand may be a metaphor for abundance, but it is an equally powerful symbol of impermanence. Even Dr. Ehrlich, who has been warning of a population-driven societal collapse for the past five decades, sees potential alternatives to an economic mode of production that demands unrelenting growth.
“The world has had a very successful economic system for a couple hundred years. But we modern human beings have been around for 200,000 years,” he says. “We need to design a different economic system.”
“[Whoever] thought we’d run out of sand?” Ehrlich asks. “It’s just nuts.”
20 Comments on "Scientists warning of sand scarcity"
MASTERMIND on Fri, 15th Sep 2017 2:21 pm
Once the permanent oil shortages hit. Everything collapses. Everything..God help us all!!
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s – ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg
Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are already declining as group – CSM-HOOK 2009
https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0412/The-decline-of-the-world-s-major-oil-fields
Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-Wikileaks
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows-WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead– WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/
Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom– FOX NEWS/REUTERS
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR
Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cuts -BLOOMBERG
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion
Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment & new discoveries
http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je-suis-convaincu-qu-on-va-manquer-de-petrole-selon-le-pdg-de-total-patrick-pouyanne-9b2d911a65572f5f989a74319b68d296
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude-NBC NEWS
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb
UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html
IEA Forecasts worldwide Oil Shortages and Sharp Price Rise by 2020 -NASDAQ
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/iea-forecasts-oil-shortages-and-sharp-price-rise-by-2020-cm757712
Energy watchdog warns oil and electricity shortages could develop as investment falls –NBC NEWS
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/watchdog-warns-of-oil-and-electricity-shortages-as-investment-falls.html
Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead –BLOOMBERG
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead
Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020-OILPRICE
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html
Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020-MARKETWATCH
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-brace-for-a-devastating-oil-shock-ahead-2017-07-03
German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments/democracies
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. ~ Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani
Dredd on Fri, 15th Sep 2017 4:34 pm
That means the sands of time … are … well … haaarrrdddd wwwweeeeerrrrrkkkkk to measure (On Thermal Expansion &Thermal Contraction – 23).
bobinget on Fri, 15th Sep 2017 6:06 pm
Sand proppant ?
Sand for concrete ?
Sand paper ?
Sand castles ?
Sand which?
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 15th Sep 2017 9:03 pm
Everybody recycle your sandpaper.
If that’s not enough, let’s make synthetic
sand, out of plastic particles.
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 1:02 am
Can we blow up North Korea now?
Can’t we can’t we puhleeeeze?
Awww c’mon why cant we blow up North Korea
you already said we could, aww
can’t we can’t we
can’t we blow them up, now now now now!
now now now now now !
Aren’t we there yet? Haven’t we already
blown them up yet? Awww gee why not?
When do we get to blow up North Korea?
It will be wayyyy better than a sofa fire.
Boat on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 1:33 am
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 15th Sep 2017 9:03 pm
“let’s make synthetic
sand, out of plastic particles”.
Good idea but to late. Sanding sponges have been around for awhile.
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 2:46 am
OK. Boat. Perfect name.
Just found the perfect boat, for Boat.
Check it out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epFPiO4WLdY
It puts out a rooster tail of black smoke. Probly runs on old sofa cushions.
Mick on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 4:26 am
Hey speed I’ve been burning my old sofas for awhile now hut im always left with a pile of springs that won’t burn any ideas to get rid of them
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 5:14 am
Absolutely happy to help. It’s all about saving the
Environment. Get yourself a plastic 5 gallon bucket,
but don’t set it in fire. Wait til fire out and everything
cold. Scoop up all the metal nails wires and springs,
and then find a scrap metal dealer or a scrap metal
bin. Even many transfer stations have a metal
collection bin.
Your sofa parts will go back to the smelter.
Melted into rebar for the next big stadium or
Wal-mart that’s going in.
That’s how your sofa fire is good for
the environment. And don’t forget
La-Z-Boy recliners. There’s a big iron
mechanism in there, lotta metal for scrap.
Do your part for the environment, and start a
furniture bonfire in your backyard today!
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 5:16 am
The problem with making beach sand out of plastic,
is the campfires would set the whole beach on fire.
Repent on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 8:17 am
Near total bullshit. Maybe Africa could actually become part of the economic world by exporting sand from the vast Sahara desert to the rest of the world. The Sahara alone could keep things at bay for sand supplies for centuries…and people in Africa would have a cash cow to earn $$
Cloggie on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 8:32 am
Um Repent…
http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/what-is-the-reason-for-not-using-sea-and-desert-sand-for-construction/article7489192.ece
The solution is in recycling concrete and brics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-H6r2SAY9I
(Dutch language video but pictures speak for themselves)
Mick on Sat, 16th Sep 2017 1:44 pm
Thanks for that speed .will do ,
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 17th Sep 2017 2:59 am
don’t forget Mick,
The American Institute for Furniture Fire Studies
has many courses.
Here is a graduate level course on the
correct way to dispose of a Console TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncHVb9jpeY4
Also here are two of their professors
providing a 12 minute lecture on correct
technique for burning a sofa, two mattresses,
old cushions, and a La-Z-Boy Recliner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncHVb9jpeY4
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 17th Sep 2017 3:06 am
UH OH, gotta fix that last link,
2 Doctorate Professors of American
Institute for Furniture Fire Studies
demonstrating correct technique
for burning a sofa, two mattresses,
old cushions, and a La-Z-Boy Recliner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H5BUaiHjz4&t=26s
Mick on Sun, 17th Sep 2017 5:07 am
Hey speed do I start the Bon fire with the tires first then add the sofa or the other way around ? I want it to burn thick black smoke to annoy my neighbours
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 17th Sep 2017 6:38 am
Start things up with cardboard boxes and pallets.
Add half a dozen pallets so then you got
red hot coals, after its burned down for
awhile. This could be a good moment to be
Tossing on styrofoam and household
garbage. But once the red coals and
heat is all set, now add 1 sofa and
2 or 3 tires on top.
Black smoke like crazy. the neighbors
will come out of their front doors
with their hands at their own throat
collapse like hornets tumbling out of
a hive ua just bombed.
You will love it.
Keep a pack of hot dogs and sticks
handy so if the fire Marshall shows
up say your just having a picnic.
Works every time.
But remember this isn’t about smoking
out your neighbors. This is about
saving the environment by burning
all the trash, to keep it out of landfills.
Have fun!
Mick on Sun, 17th Sep 2017 8:01 am
Lol fu&@ink funny
Dooma on Mon, 18th Sep 2017 1:21 am
Speed. Another typical armchair expert.
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 18th Sep 2017 9:36 pm
Dooma the doomer, if took me 2 days to
figure out your humor.
“Armchair Expert”
Bwaaa Haaa Haaa!! LOL !
Taking a bow.
But I didn’t get it for long time.
(O;