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Page added on July 1, 2017
Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).
Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources.
He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. From Tainter’s perspective, we are likely already past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet:
Sustainability requires that people have the ability and the inclination to think broadly in terms of time and space. In other words, to think broadly in a geographical sense about the world around them, as well as the state of the world as a whole. And also, to think broadly in time in terms of the near and distant future and what resources will be available to our children and our grandchildren and our great grandchildren.
One of the major problems in sustainability and in this whole question of resources and collapse is that we did not evolve as a species to have this ability to think broadly in time and space. Instead, our ancestors who lived as hunter-gatherers never confronted any challenges that required them to think beyond their locality and the near term(…)
We have developed the most complex society humanity has ever known. And we have maintained it up to this point. I have argued that technological innovation and other kinds of innovation evolve like any other aspect of complexity. The investments in research and development grow increasingly complex and reach diminishing returns. We cannot forever continue to spend more and more on technological innovation when we’ve reached the point of diminishing returns, which I argue we have reached.
Our system of innovation is going to change very significantly over the next twenty to thirty to fifty years or so. By the end of the century, our system of innovation will not be anything like what we know today. It will have to be very different. And it’s likely that innovation is not going to be able to solve our problems as readily as it has done to this point.
The technological optimists have assumed that the productivity of innovation is either constant or increasing. And in fact, what I think my colleagues and I can show is that the productivity of innovation is actually decreasing. What that means is that we will not forever be able to solve resource problems through innovation(…)
And so individuals need to take responsibility for their own ignorance. As I said, our species did not evolve to think broadly in terms of time and space and if we’re going to maintain our way of life, people have to learn to do so. People have to take responsibility for knowing and understanding the predicament that we’re facing. I have argued over the last few years that we need to start teaching early school age children in K to 12 to think differently, to think broadly in terms of time and space – to think historically, to think long-term about the future, to think broadly about what’s going on in the world around us instead of the narrow way – the narrow, local way – that most people live and think. So I put responsibility on individuals to broaden their knowledge.
25 Comments on "Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies"
penury on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 11:30 am
Too true, however the great majority will either choose to remain ignorant or lack the ability to understand the true predicament the humans are currently beginning to experience.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 12:18 pm
Collapse it will.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/109505/looming-energy-shock
Sissyfuss on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 12:44 pm
Limits to Growth won’t allow us the time needed for our species to evolve intellectually to the point that we alter our behavior. The majority of homo saps are not rational; in fact they take pride in their ignorance, (see deplorables). We must be forced to change by our circumstances, not our enlightenment.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 1:01 pm
“The majority of homo saps are not rational”
And a majority of homo saps won’t make it through the upcoming bottleneck.
Davy on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 1:46 pm
For most of us honest awakened people it is about the details not the if. I feel for the the young guys. Us pissed off old white guys might just get through the worst. Might is a big open ended word. Us pissed off old white guys deserve a good ass kicken. This is why I feel a responsibility to others. I feel I should face these issues instead of hiding out in affluence.
I dwell on these things in a surreal world of amazement. This weird world of contradictions could at anytime become brutally real. I live in the moment in many ways like someone given a terminal diagnosis. A terminal diagnosis that is not well understood. Sometimes I even pretend the techno optimist might be correct and there is happy endings. This is usually shattered by techno dumbass and behavioral dysfunctions that make me wonder how we even have a tomorrow. What a friggen bizarro world we live in.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 2:41 pm
What Sissyfuss said!
DerHundistlos on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 4:24 pm
Siss-
Right again, as usual. Facts are no longer facts in a world gone insane, particularly in the USA.
For example, in Colombia I have yet to encounter one person that denies the reality of Global Warming. Further, regardless of class, the population is well educated on the issues affecting the environment.
I believe there is a terminal sickness that has infected much of the American public and this bodes badly for not only the US, but the rest of the world.
Sissyfuss on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 4:34 pm
So how do the Columbian populace act in accordance with their knowledge, Derhund? Are they consuming less, procreating less,protecting habitat? It would be comforting to know some locale is trying to live sustainably on this beautiful but finite planet.
Davy on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 4:49 pm
There is no country on earth doing much about climate change. Der Hund’s story is just a good anti-American rag story. Yea, Americans are among worst especially the affluent and the deplorables but please look around the world and show me real people making real sacrifices. Pretending to be green as a fake green who thinks you can still be affluent and be green is just BS. Columbians are not doing shit about climate change because there is little that can be done. Real green embraces poverty as a monk would. I don’t see any of that going on anywhere except where nature is forcing it on populations. In that case it is because the populations are in failure not because they are embracing climate change ideas. You have to be wealthy to embrace ideas of climate change mitigation. It is the wealthy that are the biggest climate change hypocrites. They embrace climate change ideas in a win win way. You know high tech and without much financial sacrifice. Poor people do not have that luxury.
Apneaman on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 6:02 pm
Americans are procreating less, but it’s not to fight climate change (whatever that means).
Americans keep having fewer babies as U.S. birthrates hit some record lows
“The proportion of out-of-wedlock births varied a great deal according to race and ethnicity.
Women of Asian descent had the lowest proportion of births to unmarried women (12%), followed by whites (28.4%), Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (47.7%), American Indian or Alaska Natives (68.1%) and blacks (69.7%).
Among Latinas, 52.5% of births involved unmarried women.”
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-us-birth-rate-20170630-htmlstory.html
Lucifer on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 7:43 pm
The truth is most of the population is screwed and will perish when the collapse does happen, as i said before only the wise and chosen will survive and maybe some of you who have prepped for survival.
Makati1 on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 8:19 pm
Lucifer, your favorite country (America) is NOT going to survive. Ignorance, sloth, drugs, guns, dependency on government and imports (plunder) from the rest of the world that has made their lifestyle possible, will insure their end.
Yes, the rest of the world will suffer, but not as much or as thoroughly. Some here want to believe that America’s “exceptionalism” will ease the pain, but I do not see that happening. I see it only increasing the speed of decline and the pain of adapting to a world they have never experienced but many others already inhabit because of America’s need to kill and destroy.
I would rather fall from the bottom rung on the ladder than the top rung. All I hope for is that the insane U$ does not cause a nuclear war. THAT would be the end of all of us, everywhere.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 8:33 pm
Simple really….when the world economy collapses everything shuts down…the end….were talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like flies in short order…
Lucifer on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 8:38 pm
Mak,i don’t have a favorite country, i have travelled to many places over the years and some are better equipped than others for people to survive. but overall you are all on the same path towards the destruction of the earth.
Makati1 on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 8:52 pm
Lucifer, but, but, if you are what you claim to be, the real Lucifer, then the U$ must be your favorite as it so thoroughly embodies your homeland, Hell. A murderous, avarice filled, wasteful, immoral, and hateful country, built on the blood of others. lol
dooma on Sun, 2nd Jul 2017 3:38 am
Davy, have you ever thought of trying Twitter rules to your posts? You really have a bad case of verbal diarrhoea.
Davy on Sun, 2nd Jul 2017 5:15 am
“Davy, have you ever thought of trying Twitter rules to your posts? You really have a bad case of verbal diarrhoea.”
This is wonderful. A stupid young Australian anti-American who is intellectually narrow compliments me. Yea, a negative from a dumbass is a positive. Yea, dumba that would sell on twitter.
Repent on Sun, 2nd Jul 2017 7:02 pm
Like we can wait a full generation and get the kids coming up to solve all the problems?! Great interview, completely bogus solution presented at the end:
https://youtu.be/ysR4OxSco-o?t=6m38s
DerHundistlos on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 12:22 am
Siss-
One American consumes an equivalent amount of energy as 19 Colombians.
I think this says it all.
DerHundistlos on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 12:30 am
Davy-
You don’t know one goddam thing about Colombia. You don’t speak Spanish. You never set foot in country.
The Colombians are beautiful, warm, caring people as opposed to the typical ugliness expressed by you and other entitled Americans. Your attitude explains why the world is turning against America.
DerHundistlos on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 12:34 am
dooma-
Perfectly expressed and my sentiments exactly. Davy is at war with the world. Everyone else is wrong, but Dear Leader, Jr. is right.
Apneaman on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 1:12 am
A new report has shown how global debt has grown by US$75 trillion to $217 trillion in the decade since the 2007-08 financial crisis – reaching $28,900 for every man, woman and child in the world – 327% of the world’s annual economic output (GDP)
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/discover/28900-find-out-why-we-think-this-is-a-figure-you-should-be-aware-of-795726.html
O hell ya, we can do this forever.
Makati1 on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 3:35 am
Derhund, Davy is an expert on everything. He claims to know all about Asia even though the closest he has ever been is the Asian made clothes he wears and the cheap electronics he owns. He knows more about the Philippines than someone (me) who has lived here for 9+ years. He discounts my 64 years of living in the FSofA because I now only visit it for a few weeks, once a year, and apparently I never talk to my family or friends there.
He is a perfect example of the typical brainwashed, propaganda guzzling, flag waving, American. He can make a Missouri Mule look good.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 5:20 am
Der hund are you getting emotional? I can see your face getting red with anger by the addition of profanity. How do you know what languages I speak? My daughter is Spanish dumbshit. Connect the dots on that one. I have never been to Columbia but I have been to Peru and Costa Rica. They are two very similar countries. Explain yourself der hund with this one:
“The Colombians are beautiful, warm, caring people as opposed to the typical ugliness expressed by you and other entitled Americans.” What attitudes do I express? List them please. I would like you to answer this:
“Sissyfuss on Sat, 1st Jul 2017 4:34 pm So how do the Columbian populace act in accordance with their knowledge, Derhund? Are they consuming less, procreating less,protecting habitat?”
Maybe you didn’t answer that because you don’t have a firm answer. Der hund you are talking out your ass and I called you out. If you are trying to be “real” green show it. Flitting down to Columbia in your jet plane then calling yourself “real” green is a contradiction. I admire what you are doing there but why not do something local and skip the travel. Localism is “real” green not being a global traveler.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Jul 2017 5:28 am
Makati, numbers don’t lie like you do. There is plenty I can know about Asia without being there. You have been to a handful of places in the world but comment on all of it like you have been everywhere. So are you saying you are talking out your ass? That sounds hypocritical to me. You act the expert on the Philippines but the reality is you are just a promoter. A real expert does not have an agenda complete with propaganda. I must be getting close to the truth because you, dumba, and der hoot are getting all hot and bothered. I think you guys have a failed message and that is the problem. Why else would I now been on the most commented on makati list. The ignore list didn’t work did it makati. LMFAO