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Page added on June 9, 2017
Why Peak Oil Demand Is Still At Least 20 Years Away
Tesla Inc TSLA 3.43% eclipsed General Motors Company GM 0.67% and Ford Motor Company F 0.27% to become the largest auto company in the world this year in terms of market valuation. Tesla shares are up an incredible 72.3 percent in 2017, while GM and Ford shares are down 1.5 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively.
The Long Dawn Of The Electric Car Era
Investors’ reasoning is simple: electric cars are the future. It would be hard to find anyone reasonable who would argue any differently. But even though electric cars are the future, the world’s demand for oil will continue to grow for decades down the line.
Tesla may be the largest car company in the U.S., but most people don’t drive a Tesla car. In fact, nearly a decade after Tesla launched the first highway-legal, all-electric car in 2008, electric vehicles still account for only 0.2 percent of total light-duty vehicles being driven today, according to the International Energy Agency. In other words, more than nine years into the electric car era, only about 1 in 500 cars being driven today is electric.
Of course, that number is likely to rise quickly following the roll-out of the Model 3 and other competing vehicle models in coming years, but electric cars have a long way to go before they account for the majority of global automobiles.
Morgan Stanley recently predicted that electric vehicles will still only account for 50 to 60 percent of global light vehicle sales by 2040. So 23 years into the future, up to half of all vehicle sales could still be fossil fuel-powered.
But the statistic that long-term oil investors are banking on the most is that the total number of global miles traveled will triple by 2040, according to Morgan Stanley.
Tying It Back In To Global Oil Demand
If gasoline cars’ market share declines by 50 percent but total miles triples by 2040, it’s easy to see why Morgan Stanley is “surprisingly constructive” on global oil demand. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects that peak global oil demand won’t occur until around 2040.
Of course, with global oil production rising by the day, the fact that peak oil demand is at least another two decades away isn’t necessarily a case for investing in oil stocks. However, investors that are 45 years old or older will likely be retired by the time global oil demand stops growing.
In the meantime, the long-term oil investment story will continue to be tied to supply rather than demand. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) USO 0.64% is down 18.9 percent so far in 2017 on concerns over a persistent global crude oil supply glut.
13 Comments on "Why Peak Oil Demand Is Still At Least 20 Years Away"
____________________________________________ on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 3:48 pm
Peak negro demand?_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 4:04 pm
White Negros. Your capitalist overlords don’t need you anymore, so go suck on a fentanyl milkshake and take the dirt nap – useless eater.
Financial despair, addiction and the rise of suicide in white America
The death rate for white Americans aged 45 to 54 has risen sharply since 1999, but Montana officials wrestle to explain why the state has the highest rate of suicide in the US at nearly twice the national average – and it’s rising
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/07/suicide-rates-rise-butte-montana-princeton-study
The drug crisis is now pushing up death rates for almost all groups of Americans
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-drug-crisis-is-now-pushing-up-death-rates-for-almost-all-groups-of-americans/2017/06/09/971d8424-4aa1-11e7-a186-60c031eab644_story.html
rockman on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 4:18 pm
As long as 82,500,000 ICE’s are sold for 1,500,000 EV’s as happened in 2016 (or anything close) predicting the date of PD will be impossible IMHO. And it’s not just about sales ratio: there are 1.2 BILLION ICE’s on the road today that will have to replaced with EV’s.
Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 4:55 pm
Tesla is in no way the “largest” car company. It has the highest stock market capitalization.
This implies that investors believe things like:
1). Tesla MAY become the most profitable car company (perhaps by far) at some time in the future.
2). That future news on Tesla will be very good re things like it’s new EV’s, solar roofs, Gigafactory expansion, home battery business, etc.
3). That future profits in Tesla’s business will grow more quickly than the market expects.
4). That Tesla will be a large car company, and perhaps THE largest car company at some point (allowing room for lots of profit growth).
…
I have no idea whether any of that will come true. But I do know that currently, Tesla is a TINY car company, in terms of both cars produced (compared to the big car companies) and in terms of profits (there are none yet).
Also, prices (like for oil and everything else) are determined by the balance of supply AND demand.
If you’re going to write an article and refer to financial instruments like stock — you need to have some grasp on what you’re talking about (and the right words to use) or you lose credibility on your overall message, IMO.
Cloggie on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 5:12 pm
Could the retard of the first post please stop f* up this thread with this juvenile pressing on the hyphen button?
Anonymouse on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 8:36 pm
LoL, It never ceases to amaze, how (some) amerikans keep pining their hopes on the suburban sprawl-and-gridlock-forever meme, but it is not just EVs they believe are coming to suburban sprawls rescue, but Elon Husks TESLA specifically.
Couple things.
If .2% of all vehicles are EVs, it means .2% shared by ALL manufacturers, not just tesla. THe writer seems convinced ‘tesla’ will flood the market with EV’s, despite the small problem that Tesla does not have a fraction of the capacity, or capital even, to do anything of the sort. Tesla has name recognition, which is of some value, but no industrial or distribution capacity to speak of.
That aside, what is tesla’s slice of that .2% I wonder…
The other thing is, tesla has never made a profit. Though in the bizzaro world of amerikan ‘free-for-all free-enterprise faux-capitalism’, you could likely find lots of other ‘successful’ uS corps that havent made a profit either, yet are chugging along just fine. The uS corporate welfare-state tends to muddy those waters a great deal.
Of course, musk has legions of fawn-boys who seem utterly convinced musk will leading amerika to both Mars, and the glorious all-electric car future to come, despite the fact he has never made a profit on any of his ventures besides selling his stake in pay-pal, his rockets tend to explode a lot and or fall over before reaching low earth orbit, let along Mars, and his cars are subsidized niche product for the very rich.
But hey, maybe he will toss in his hyper-loopy for free. Once we have tesla franchises on Mars, musk should be able to comp the uSofA his hyper-loop out of petty cash…
Sissyfuss on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 9:39 pm
________________, you’ve crossed the line again, line boy. Stop it or we’ll have Acidmold date your sister.
ALCIADA-MOLE on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 9:50 pm
@siss dear. I haven’t seen you said anything noteworthy. lack of vocabulary?
deadlykillerbeaz on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 10:24 am
Ford is the number one auto company. Toyota, two, GM, three, Honda, four, Nissan, five.
Tesla is far back in the pack.
Hasn’t the manufacturing capacity of top five, it’ll be awhile before they do.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ford_factories
baha on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 11:34 am
50% sales of EV’s by 2040 says nothing about miles driven by competing technologies. I may want a FF vehicle for now to visit my sister, but 95% of my miles could be PV powered.
Just sayin’
bobinget on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 12:37 pm
Like Fentanyl, EV’s are the white man’s DoC.
(drug of choice)
I’ve owned cars of every description for 67 years.
(“32 Ford, Chevy (2), Dodge, Hillman, MG/TC, Sprint, Lincoln (2), VW (5), Porche (2), Nissan. Haft-a say the car that has given me most pleasure continues to be my now one year old e.Golf.
Teslas are like $23,000 Rolex, keeps time as well as any $10 dollar digital but a better badge for middle aged rich men. Driving around an e.Golf attracts zero attention. Only the wheels give away my secret. e.Golfs handle far better than race cars of the fifties and sixties. (stopped SCCA racing when I turned 31)
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 12:50 pm
Hi Clogger, explain what the hyphens are doing?
It causes the comments to be too wide?
Is that the problem )
I often notice problems with the width of commenting
on peak oil. Nobody fixes it.
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 1:17 pm
Yeah Pipe Clogger is trying to stop the guy
who puts in the extra hyphens. It messes up the
chat board. But really isn’t that the fault
of the person who runs the chat board?
His software is busted. The name could
simply be truncated to a maximum number of
characters.
I don’t think there even is any website
manager for peakoil.