It’s A “Geopolitical Earthquake”: A Stunned World Responds After Saudi Alliance Cuts All Ties With Qatar

Virtually nobody saw it coming.

Late on Sunday night, the Saudi-led alliance of Gulf Arab states including Egypt, shocked the world when they announced they had severed ties and closed borders with one of the Gulf’s wealthiest, if smallest, neighbors Qatar, a (now former) member of the Gulf Cooperation Council in what we called a “geopolitical earthquake” and what Bloomberg dubbed “an unprecedented move designed to punish one of the region’s financial superpowers for its ties with Iran and Islamist groups in the region.”

As we noted first last night, just days after president Trump left the region, a “geopolitical earthquake” took place in the Middle East as the rift between Qatar and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council exploded with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar accusing it of “spreading chaos,” by funding terrorism and supporting Iran. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt all said they will suspend air and sea travel to and from the Gulf emirate. Saudi Arabia will also shut land crossings with its neighbor, potentially depriving the emirate of imports through its only land border.

Saudi Arabia cited Qatar’s support of “terrorist groups aiming to destabilize the region,” including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State and al-Qaeda. It accused Qatar of supporting “Iranian-backed terrorist groups” operating in the kingdom’s eastern province as well as Bahrain. Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain and the U.A.E., gave Qatari diplomats 48 hours to leave.

Donald Trump meets Qatar’s ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Riyadh in May

Qatar responded by saying it regrets the “unjustified” decision of the gulf nations to sever ties and called the accusations “baseless”, saying they were part of a plan to “impose guardianship on the state, which in itself is a violation of sovereignty.”

The first hints that not all is well emerged just three days after Trump left Riyadh as part of his first international trip in May – during which the US president and Saudi King Salman singled out Iran as the world’s main sponsor of terrorism – when the state-run Qatar News Agency carried comments by Qatari ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani criticizing mounting anti-Iran sentiment. Officials quickly deleted the comments, blamed them on hackers and appealed for calm, however it was too late and Saudi and U.A.E. media outlets then launched verbal assaults against Qatar, which intensified after Sheikh Tamim’s phone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the weekend in apparent defiance of Saudi criticism.

“Qatar is right in the middle of the GCC countries and it has tried to pursue an independent foreign policy,” said Peter Sluglett, director of the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore quoted by Bloomberg. “The idea is to bring Qatar to heel.”

Qatar’s geopolitical importance can not be underscored, not only for its vast wealth, but because Qatar is one of the biggest producer of liquefied natural gas (and arguably the source of the 6 year long Syrian proxy war, due to Qatar’s documented desires to pass a natgas pipeline into Europe through Syria), and also hosts the forward headquarters of CENTCOM, the U.S. military’s central command in the Middle East.

And speaking of Qatar’s wealth, while the country has a population smaller than Houston, it has one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds with over $335 billion investments in companies from Volkswagen, to Rosneft, Barclays, Credit Suisse and Tiffany’s.

What prompted the surprising move by the Gulf-states? According to some, emboldened by “warmer” ties with the US under President Trump, the Saudi-led alliance is seeking to stamp out any opposition to forming a united front against Shiite-ruled Iran. And while Monday’s escalation is unlikely to hurt energy exports from the Gulf, it threatens to have far-reaching effects on Qatar according to Bloomberg.

“There are going to be implications for people, for travelers, for business people. More than that, it brings the geopolitical risks into perspective,” Tarek Fadlallah, the chief executive officer of Nomura Asset Management Middle East, said in an interview to Bloomberg Television.

“Since this is an unprecedented move, it is very difficult to see how it plays out.”

The stunned confusion explains the sudden, adverse reaction in Qatar assets, which saw the Qatar QE Index of stocks plunge tumble 8%, the most since 2009 to the lowest since January 2016…

… while Dubai’s index fell 1.2%. Separately, Qatar bond yields surged in the worst day in 7 months as Qatar CDS spiked to 2 month highs.

There were also fireworks in the FX arena, where forward contracts for the Qatari riyal soared by over 200bps to 4.05%, suggesting a currency devaluation may be imminent as a result of the economic blockade.

While Brent initially rose as much as 1.6% to $50.74 a barrel, it has since pared all gains as concerns that the tenuous OPEC alliance may be about to collapse, resulting in a fresh flood of crude in the market. That said, keep an eye on the Straits of Hormuz: heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, and Iran typically draw market attention to the tight waterway through which about 30% of the seaborne oil trade passes.

Politicians, largely behind the curve, chimed in and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said it’s important that the Gulf states remain unified and encouraged the various parties to address their differences. Speaking at a news conference in Sydney, he said the crisis won’t undermine the fight on terrorism. “What we’re seeing is a growing list of some irritants in the region that have been there for some time,” Tillerson said. “Obviously they’ve now bubbled up to a level that countries decided they needed to take action in an effort to have those differences addressed.”

Making the matter a particular headache for the US State Department is that all five countries involved in the dispute are U.S. allies, and Qatar has committed $35 billion to invest in American assets. The Qatar Investment Authority, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, plans to open an office in the Silicon Valley.

Not the First Time

As Bloomberg reminds us, this is not the first time Qatar has been singled out and disagreements among the six GCC members have flared in the past; tensions with Qatar could be traced to the mid-1990s when Al Jazeera television was launched from Doha, providing a platform for Arab dissidents to criticize autocratic governments in the region except Qatar’s.

The Gulf nation also played a key role in supporting anti-regime movements during the Arab Spring, acting against Saudi and U.A.E. interests by bankrolling the Muslim Brotherhood’s government in Egypt. Qatar also hosts members of Hamas’s exiled leadership and maintains ties with Iran.

In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Bahrain temporarily withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar. That dispute centered on Egypt following the army-led ouster of Islamist President Mohamed Mursi, a Muslim Brotherhood leader.

The crisis comes just weeks after Moody’s cut Qatar’s credit rating by one level to Aa3, the fourth-highest investment grade, citing uncertainty over its economic growth model.

“Qatar is economically and socially most vulnerable from food and other non-energy imports,” said Paul Sullivan, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University. “If there is a true blockade, this could be a big problem for them. Rules stopping citizens of the U.A.E., Saudi Arabia and Bahrain from even transiting via Qatar could cause significant disruptions.”

Iran also chimed in, with an official saying the Gulf crisis is a fallout from Trump Saudi visit: “Rift and crumbling of unity” among Gulf nations “first result of the sword dance in Riyadh,” Hamid Aboutalebi, a deputy chief of staff for political affairs, said on Twitter. The comments were a reference to Donald Trump’s Saudi visit last month, when he took part in a ceremonial sword dance with Saudi officials

“Time for sanctions has ended, cutting diplomatic ties, closing borders, blockading nations” is not the way to end crisis, the Iranian added and said that Saudi, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain need to choose “democracy at home and talks in the region.”

A Russian envoy in Vienna, Vladimir Voronkov, was cited by RIA saying that that tensions between Qatar, Middle Eastern nations are a sign of political destabilization in region.

Finally, with confusion still rampant over last night’s events, here courtesy of Bloomberg is a recap of key reactions by various analysts and investors who believe the damaged diplomatic ties will lead to increased volatility and pessimism toward Middle Eastern assets. Here are some views on the move by market participants:

Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive officer of Nomura Asset Management Middle East:

“Clearly this is going to rattle investors, mostly foreign investors, that have to play a key role in regulation reform and investment program.”
“Political uncertainty, particularly given recent headlines on Trump’s visit, make investors wary of investing not just in Qatar specifically, but in region more broadly”
Expect spike in volatility, followed by downward move in markets in general

Marwan Shurrab, head of high net worth and retail equities brokerage at Al Ramz in Dubai

Sees volatility increasing in the very short-term
Investors will watch for any kind of announcement, or further clarification coming from governments or companies
Investors will assess which companies have the biggest exposure to the region and therefore, have potential revenues at risk
Some long-term investors could find opportunities if any signal of potential recovery

Majd Dola, senior research analyst at Al Ramz Capital in Dubai

Many U.A.E. companies have operational exposure to Qatar ranging from mid- to-large size projects, sees some “negative economic impact on already struggling companies”
Notes Drake & Scull has 500m dirhams worth of projects in Qatar; Arabtec has two joint ventures, pending legal cases, and receivables; DAMAC announced a 500m-dirham tower in Doha recently
While hard to quantify the direct impact on those companies, it won’t be positive in short- term
“If we take this one step further, Qatar is set to host World Cup 2020, which created a massive potential pipeline for U.A.E. developers and contractors”
Qatar investment funds might also be under pressure to liquidate U.A.E. holdings
Companies like DXBE (11% owned by Qatar investment) might face further pressure if things moved further in negative direction

Abdul Kadir Hussain, head of fixed income asset management at Arqaam Capital Ltd.

Expects some initial impact on Qatari bonds.
“A lot of them are held in hold-to-maturity books so I don’t expect a major pullback.”
Still, expects a small narrowing of bond spreads
Doesn’t expect move to affect bonds across the GCC at this point since they are “relatively cheap” for their ratings
Given the lull in market due to summer and Ramadan, technicals are probably supportive in terms of new issuance

Peter Sluglett, director of the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore

“Desire of the Trump administration is that nobody in that region should have any sort of relations with Iran. Qatar is right in the middle of the GCC countries and it has tried to pursue an independent foreign policy. So the idea is to bring Qatar to heel”

As for the biggest question of all: is Qatar’s ambition for a trans-Syrian nat gas pipeline now officially over, the jury is still out…

zerohedge

38 Comments on "It’s A “Geopolitical Earthquake”: A Stunned World Responds After Saudi Alliance Cuts All Ties With Qatar"

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 8:24 am

Qatar:

– 2 million inhabitants
– Highest per capita income in the world: $130k
– 3rd largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran
– Sunni majority, but not fanatical opponent of Iran like KSA
– Supports Muslim Brotherhood
– US base with 10,000 troops
– Qatar denies that it has praised Iran and says its sites have been hacked (#FakeNews)

Significantly, Qatar had already denied the comments shortly after they appeared:

http://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-and-uae-block-qatari-media-over-sheikhs-israel-and-iran-comments-615209

Timing move KSA obviously has to do with recent visit Trump and giant weapons deal. KSA Invasion of Qatar next?

As for the biggest question of all: is Qatar’s ambition for a trans-Syrian nat gas pipeline now officially over, the jury is still out…

No it isn’t, that pipeline is not going to happen.

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 9:19 am

Qatar has all the gas, gas is the future, oil is the past cause fracking is making oil a common commodity, Saudi is an evil Satanic nation of head chopper 9-11 causing isis camel fucker, ergo they will do anything to control energy so they will take over Qatar. I don’t really feel sorry for them though, they back al qeada. I just hope Qatar are smart enough to understand that Saudi is a satanic nation and now God will punish them by allowing Saudi to rape them hard. So goes Yemen, so goes Qatar maybe, then Saudi will collapse, then the US will collapse trying heroically to stop the entire system falling apart.

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 9:20 am

Cloggie, you just said the US has a Qatari base, so no there won’t be an invasion. What is significant is the direct threat of a US ally, by a US ally.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:12 am

I just hope Qatar are smart enough to understand that Saudi is a satanic nation and now God will punish them by allowing Saudi to rape them hard. So goes Yemen, so goes Qatar maybe, then Saudi will collapse, then the US will collapse trying heroically to stop the entire system falling apart.

…so Britain will rule the waves again and America will be again a UK colony, as expressed by the queen recently:

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/queen-offers-to-restore-british-rule-over-united-states

End good, all good.lol

I must confess that I absolutely did not see this coming, so I have to remain modest in my exegeses.

Perhaps KSA is busy with a power grab on the Arabian peninsula, after they intervened in Yemen first. Interesting will be the reaction of Turkey with which KSA has a “strategic partnership”.

Oh wait:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-turkey-idUSKBN18W19Z

As always Turkey hates to see Muslim disunity, even with Iran. Probably not planned with Turkey, this stunt by KSA.

bobinget on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:21 am

Z4 Research‏ @ZmansEnrgyBrain 5m5 minutes ago

Main fueling port for oil tankers in Persian Gulf shuttered to Qatar flag ships and to ships porting in Qatar.

Of course we won’t notice shortages for six weeks.
By which time, no one will remember who is who.
” I never knew there were so many branches of Muslim”

One demand I really admire: KSA demands Qatar shut down Aljazeera. Why? Because it’s unislamic?
No. Boring. KSA, Egypt, two countries unsafe for
Aljazeera journalists.

bobinget on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:29 am

Cloggie, Get a grip.
Andy Borowitz is a comic.

No one knows how this will turn out. My thinking.
So far, all US markets concern, regular oil and gas deliveries.

Iran has won Every Single Battle in this 1000 year Islamic war. If Trump decides to lecture KSA on Islam, we are truly in for it.

bobinget on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:40 am

KSA can’t bomb Qatar. Too many US troops. But, Qatar can mess with:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=Ras+Tanura&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiEi7uHgafUAhVm5oMKHXYrA_0QsAQIMg&biw=1366&bih=638

BTW: The embargo KSA is attempting may work on the poorest Gulf nation, Yemen, but not the richest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:41 am

Andy Borowitz is a comic.

I see your point. But the original story I got from this source:

https://www.rt.com/uk/378513-commonwealth-us-farage-trump/

Commonwealth membership is admittedly not colonial, but it would put Britain, not the US, in the center. I trust the US has so much self-respect to laugh this possibility away.

If Trump decides to lecture KSA on Islam, we are truly in for it.

Some speculation… perhaps did Iran-hater Trump gave the green light to KSA, just like Bush, via ambassador April Glaspie, gave the green light to Saddam for the Kuwait invasion… in order to let him walk in the trap and provoke the Gulf War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_Glaspie

This time Trump could NOT intend to let KSA walk in a trap but instead strengthen KSA by letting them acquire money bag Qatar… from which 330 billion worth of weapons could be bought… from the US.

Trump and the Art of the Deal.

Ghung on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:52 am

Some folks give Trump far too much credit. The Donald is in the deep end now; way over his head.
This ain’t no real estate deal, at least, not the kind he’s equipped to deal with.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 10:56 am

This could give a whole new interpretation to that mysterious “dance of the sword”, trump conducted with his Saudi hosts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=runYPf4Q2g8

Interesting that Egypt’s president was also involved:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/05/saudi-arabias-power-play-leaves-qatar-with-little-room-for-manouvre#img-2

He now backs KSA.

Land-grab could be next.

The waiting is now for the latest messages from TNN (Trump News Network aka Twitter) to see if the old fox is in on the game.

bobinget on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 11:43 am

I agree with GeeHung. Far too much borscht on The Donald’s plate already. NY and VA
are looking into DJT’s hot Russian money laundering. This would be viewed more as a criminal investigation, not political. So far, his loyal followers are ignoring ‘all this Russian business’. Will they ignore a grand jury?

I really believe KSA did get green-lighted, by DJT, to close down Aljazeera once and for all.
Of course, that’s not the entire story. Looks like
throwing Qatar into the arms of Iran ok.

bobinget on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 11:49 am

KSA keeps throwing money at Egypt for fear the Muslim Brotherhood might regain power if Egypt runs out of oil. (and food and water and gas)

In fact KSA has spent more supporting Egypt’s military dictatorship then murder of Yemen and Syria combined.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 12:39 pm

Germany contemplating moving from airbase Incirlik-Turkey to Jordan:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/tuerkei-bundeswehr-arbeitet-bereits-an-verlegung-nach-jordanien-a-1150733.html

Something big is brewing. The Turks want to get rid of the Germans and hence NATO.

Perhaps Turkey, KSA and Egypt are preparing an Islamic sort of EU, or “Caliphate” as it is known in the region. Trump helps sabotaging the NWO/West/NATO by delivering enormous amounts of weapons to KSA (and implicitly to Turkey and Egypt). Next Qatar, Jordan and Western pieces of Eyeraq and Eastern pieces of Syria are “mopped up” by Turkey, KSA and Egypt.

Grandiose.

rockman on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 1:11 pm

I liked Aljazeera when working in Africa. Better then any American network IMHO. And very different then crappy
Aljazeera America.

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 2:45 pm

It’s far worse than people think re: the UK. If Corbyn wins its Old Labour, not new, its the confirmation of the death of Blairism in England, the confirmation of UK first, and the END of UK middle east involvement, the US and even NATO will lose another ally if May is not Prime Minister next weekend. Corbyn has openly supported the IRA and his party allows antisemitic attitudes in its ranks. The EU will follow shortly after, France is always last to get the point and always the first to blow its own trumpet that’s why it loses so many wars.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 3:17 pm

It’s far worse than people think re: the UK. If Corbyn wins its Old Labour, not new, its the confirmation of the death of Blairism in England

Yeah, Arthur Scargill time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhjxuCMBemA

Corbyn has openly supported the IRA and his party allows antisemitic attitudes in its ranks.

shocked, Shocked, SHOCKED!

the US and even NATO will lose another ally if May is not Prime Minister next weekend.

We’ll get over it. NATO is dead anyway. This is the future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU24SlktnME

Continental Confederation Paris-Berlin-Moscow replacing the EU. We are interested in Scotland though. And Gibraltar is toast.

It’s far worse than people think re: the UK.

Yep, England the new Al-Andalus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Andalus

Apneaman on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 3:21 pm

Joe where’s this list of all the wars “The French” have lost? Good thing they won that one some refer to the American war of independence eh?

Let’s take a look at the record shall we?

War Nerd: Glory to The French

“The new big thing on the web is all these sites with names like “I Hate France,” with supposed datelines of French military history, supposedly proving how the French are total cowards.”

“Well, I’m going to tell you guys something you probably don’t want to hear: these sites are total bullshit, the notion that the French are cowards is total bullshit, and anybody who knows anything about European military history knows damn well that over the past thousand years, the French have the most glorious military history in Europe, maybe the world.”

http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-glory-to-the-french/

rockman on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 3:47 pm

Always amazing to see how the MSM can take a long standing situation and then present it a suddenly developed new dynamic. Maybe its a slow news week. From 2014:

“The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) had not fully recovered from last November’s disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Oman when it was hit by a deeper rift involving Qatar.

The latest diplomatic spat pits Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain against Qatar over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, a group labeled a “terrorist organisation” by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

On March 5, the trio announced the withdrawal of their ambassadors from Qatar, accusing it of breaching the organisation’s security agreement and violating its principles of “unified destiny”, according to a joint statement issued by the official Saudi news agency.

They also accused Qatar of failing to commit to promises it had made to not interfere in the internal affairs of its fellow GCC states, not to support organisations and individuals jeopardising their security and stability, and not to harbour “hostile media”, referring to Qatar-based Al Jazeera Media Network.”

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 3:52 pm

The English merely conquered Zulus, the French overran entire Europe, including Moscow, where the Germans were stuck in the mud 50 miles outside.

And it were indeed the French who kicked the British out of America.

And the French had little trouble with Vietnam (or the rest of Indo-China), they simply walked in and took it. No need for napalm or other uncivilized stuff.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Indochina

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 3:57 pm

Yup, and guess what, the party’s over france, uncle Sam ain’t doing it for your assistance any more, you got a problem, spend your own billions fixing it, see if socialism still works then. Corbyn knows he can either have and NHS or an army, but not both, pity it will take the EUSSR another generation before it collapses to learn that lesson. As for French military glory, let’s see, the so called French army had lots of Algerians, Germans, Austrians, Irish, and was commanded by a Corsican whoes father famously hated France and his EU fell apart faster than this one will, so much for the usefulness of armies…..

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 3:59 pm

As I told you before smokey, the world has weapons and a memory, that won’t be repeated idiot.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 4:03 pm

Yup, and guess what, the party’s over france, uncle Sam ain’t doing it for your assistance any more

Uncle Sam never did anything for our assistance, they allied themselves to the Soviets and together divided the European loot, that’s all.

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 4:03 pm

Rockman, its obvious what going on. Qatar has been helping the Saudis in Yemen, the genocide by famine of those people comes at a cost, a blood money cost. The Saudis won’t pay it. So far the young Saudi rulers behind the throne have done nothing but make horrendous errors of judgement, there’s no reason to think this is not another one.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 4:11 pm

As I told you before smokey, the world has weapons and a memory, that won’t be repeated idiot.

The world has indeed a memory, it’s called archives and the time isn’t very far until Vlad will open his war archives and not necessarily to the advantage of either Britain or the US.

Sneak preview:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/5445161/Russia-accuses-Poland-of-starting-Second-World-War.html

WW1: British design

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Review_(London)
(Germania est delenda)

WW2: American Jews design

http://tinyurl.com/y9dok6qt

And then there is the holocaust.

It ain’t going to be pretty.

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 4:19 pm

Does anyone seriously think this rift will end the funding and spreading of wahabbist ideology and violent terrorist atrocities?

joe on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 4:20 pm

Smokey, zzzzzz nobody cares dude, go have a dooby at a cafe man.

Cloggie on Mon, 5th Jun 2017 11:59 pm

http://www.thedailybeast.com/where-does-the-saudi-qatar-death-match-leave-trumps-troops

Cloggie on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 12:07 am

Trump, KSA, Egypt, Bahrein and Yemen all in bed together: Qatar is going to be invaded and looted:

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706061054344186-saudi-arabia-qatar-invasion/

“Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut off all ties with the Persian Gulf state of Qatar may be a prelude to invading the small and wealthy emirate and seizing its wealth, Institute for Gulf Affairs Founder and Director Professor Ali al-Ahmed told Sputnik.”

“”I project the invasion of Qatar… I have received reports of Saudi military movements near the Qatari border,” al-Ahmed said on Monday. “The Saudis: They are preparing””

“President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who had close ties with the Saudi royal family during his 15 years as Chairman and CEO of Exxon, would both tacitly support the Saudi invasion of Qatar, al-Ahmed claimed.”

Cloggie on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 12:27 am

Iranian air bridge to Qatar next?

Israel also supports KSA in Qatar standoff.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-gcc-states-led-by-saudi-arabia-will-collapse-into-oblivion/5593551

Davy on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 5:20 am

Yea, sure they would, lol. Talk about some extremist news cloggie. You are getting desperate lately. I think most people including Trump and Tillerson understand such a war in the ME would be catastrophic except maybe someone like you who has a fanciful fictional view of geopolitical gaming. It would sure screw up your Europe with its half-baked alternative future. You all need another 20-30 years before you are ready for such disruption and even them how are you going to keep the desperate masses out from a failed ME?

Davy on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 6:35 am

“The Qatar Turmoil Fallout: Flights, Food, Football And More”
http://tinyurl.com/y8vy2x6f

“MUFJ notes a rapprochement between Iran and Qatar would be a vast security risk to the U.S. military” while closure of land/sea/air contacts could have adverse “implications for the airlines, shipping and road freight industries.”

“Flights As reported overnight, Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways and Dubai’s Emirates are suspending all flights to and from Doha, starting from Tuesday morning. Both carriers operate four daily return flights to Doha. Budget carriers FlyDubai and Air Arabia are also cancelling routes to Doha, with other airlines, including Bahrain’s Gulf Air and Egyptair expected to follow suit. It comes after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt all said they would stop flights in and out of Qatar, and close their airspace to the country’s airline, Qatar Airways. But a bigger, if not existential threat, to Qatar Airways is being banned from large chunks of airspace: according to a report by CAPA — Center for Aviation, “losing Saudi, Bahrain and UAE airspace would effectively ground Qatar Airways,” CAPA. That’s because Qatar actually has very little airspace relative to the size of the country.”

“Food While desert states in general struggle to grow food, food security is a particular issue for Qatar given the only way into the country is a single border with Saudi Arabia. Every day hundreds of trucks cross the border, and food is one of the main supplies. About 40% of Qatar’s food is believed to come via this route. That may no longer be an option after Saudi Arabia said it will close that border and when the trucks shipments end, Qatar will become reliant on air and sea freight. “It will immediately cause inflation and that will directly affect normal Qatari people,” says Nuseibeh. “If things start costing significantly more, then you’re going to see the Qatari people putting increasing political pressure on the ruling family for either a change of leadership or a change of direction.” The Cornerstone analyst also pointed out that many poorer Qataris make daily or weekly trips to Saudi to do their grocery shopping as it is cheaper. Clearly a closed border means this will no longer be possible.”

“People More significant though would be if Egypt issued a similar ban. According to one recent report about 180,000 Egyptians live in Qatar – with many involved in engineering, medicine and law as well as construction. A loss of that workforce would pose a problem for both local and international firms operating in the Gulf state.”

“Trade and business Nervousness over the unprecedented situation left Qatar’s main share index more than 7% lower on Monday – its biggest drop in nearly a decade – amid worries about the investment climate. Many Gulf firms have a presence in Qatar, including in retail. Those stores are likely to close, at least temporarily, believes Nuseibeh.”

joe on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 7:16 am

Is it racist if Saudi Arabia bans muslims, or only when Trump does it?

Cloggie on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 7:53 am

They all backed the invasion with Yemen, so why not Qatar?

The clear purpose of the measures is to turn Qatar in a KSA client state.

Interestingly no word from Trump yet. This action is absolutely no surprise for him.

Davy on Tue, 6th Jun 2017 8:58 am