The Keystone XL Pipeline: A Risky Bet on Higher Oil Prices and Tight Oil
Opponents of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines hold a rally as they protest President Donald Trump’s executive orders advancing their construction, at Lafayette Park next to the White House in Washington, DC, on January 24. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
The Keystone XL Pipeline is a bet on much higher oil prices several years from now. It will take at least $85 oil prices to develop the new oil sand projects needed to fill the pipeline.
It is also a bet that U.S. tight oil output will continue to grow and will need heavy oil to blend for refining. Both bets are risky.
A Bet On Higher Oil Prices
KXL would add about 830,000 barrels per day (b/d) to the 1.3 million b/d already moving through the base Keystone Pipeline system completed in 3 phases between 2010 and 2014 (Figure 1) when oil prices were more than $90 per barrel.
Figure 1. Location map of Keystone XL and Base Keystone pipeline systems. Source: TransCanada and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
It was not until prices exceeded $70 per barrel in 2005 (December 2016 dollars) that oil sands expansion began to accelerate (Figure 2). Since then, production has almost doubled from 1.3 to 2.4 mmb/d and cumulative production has increased from 5.4 to 10 billion barrels.
Figure 2. Oil Sands Production Nearly Doubled After Oil Prices Exceeded $70 Per Barrel. Source: Statistics Canada and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
By comparison, the Bakken and Eagle Ford tight oil plays have each produced 2.4 billion barrels. The Permian horizontal tight oil plays–Spraberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Spring–have produced less than 1 billion barrels.*
Table 1. Comparison of Oil Sands and U.S. tight oil plays. Source: Statistics Canada, EIA, Drilling Info and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
In 2015, oil prices averaged only $43 per barrel. No new oil sand projects have been sanctioned since oil prices collapsed in 2014 although 3 pilot projects have been approved since prices moved into the $50 per barrel range. Approval is not the same as sanctioning and these 3 projects together would add only 35,000 b/d.
It seems unlikely that new greenfield projects will be sanctioned until oil prices move much higher (Canadian heavy oil (WCS) trades at a 25% discount to WTI). Assuming that prices stabilize in the $50 to $60 range, it is reasonable that pilots may evolve into brownfield expansion projects over the next year or two.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers estimates that annual oil sand production will grow 128,000 b/d until 2021 and then, grow more slowly at 59,000 b/d. If all of that new oil were going to KXL, it would not reach capacity for about 10 years. But other pipelines are already approved for expansion and will probably get much of the oil before KXL is completed.
TransCanada’s bet, therefore, is that oil prices will move much higher and more quickly than most forecasts anticipate and that the volumes will be there by the time that the pipeline is built.
Light Oil and Heavy Oil
U.S. tight oil plays produce ultra-light oil. Almost all of it is too light for refinery specifications. That means that it must be blended with heavy oil in order to be refined and that is why there is demand for Canadian heavy oil.
The Keystone XL Pipeline is, therefore, a bet that tight oil plays will continue for several decades.
Similarly, Canadian viscous, heavy oil must be diluted with ultra-light oil to move through pipelines. Because of that, Canada is the biggest importer of U.S. light oil.
The U.S. imports almost 3 times more oil from Canada than from Saudi Arabia (Figure 3). Imports from Canada are roughly equal to the amount from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia and Iraq combined.
Figure 3. The U.S. imports almost 3 times more oil from Canada than from Saudi Arabia. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
The average U.S. refinery is designed for 31° API gravity oil but 80% of domestic crude oil is more than 30° and 70% is more than 35° API gravity so it must be blended with heavier oil before it can be refined (Figure 4). The Keystone Pipeline carries oil that is approximately 22° API so the fit with lighter U.S. oil is perfect.
Figure 4. 80% of U.S. Crude Oil is greater than 30° API and 70% is greater than 35° API. Source: Drilling Info, EIA, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. and Crude Oil Peak.
The increasing percentage of ultra-light oil (>40° API) after 2011 shown in Figure 4 is because of the growth of tight oil plays. More than 95% of tight oil is greater than 30° API and these plays now account for more than half (52%) of U.S. output.
It is, therefore, no surprise that 98% of the oil imported by the U.S. is heavy that is, less than 35° API gravity (Figure 5). The biggest sources of heavy oil other than Canada are Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico.
Figure 5. 98% of U.S. Imports Less Than 35° API Gravity. Source: Drilling Info, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. and Crude Oil Peak.
Production from Venezuela and Mexico is declining (Figure 6). Canada, Iraq and Saudi Arabia have strong production histories and are, therefore, more reliable long-term providers of heavy oil to the U.S. Canada has many advantages over other providers because of geographic proximity, supply security and price.
Figure 6. Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola Have Declining Incremental Production. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Venezuela has enormous reserves of heavy oil and declining production is mostly because of political and social instability. This could change but it is more likely that Venezuela’s problems will continue. Mexico’s production decline is more systemic because the country has not made a significant new discovery since 1980.
A Bet on Tight Oil
So far, so good for the Keystone XL Pipeline but what about the longevity of the tight oil plays?
Production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford plays is in marked decline and Permian tight oil production growth has slowed (Figure 7). This is despite record high numbers of producing wells in all 3 plays.
Figure 7. Bakken and Eagle Ford production are declining and Permian basin tight oil production growth has slowed. Source: Drilling Info, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. and Crude Oil Peak.
The Bakken and Eagle Ford plays have probably peaked based on remaining core area locations, generally poorer performance from recently drilled wells compared to older wells, and current rig activity. Assuming that oil prices recover to the $70 range in coming years, production should increase as more marginal locations become economically viable–just not to peak levels reached in 2015.
The Permian basin, on the other hand, should continue to grow for several years for all of the reasons that the Bakken and Eagle Ford will not. There are substantial areas in the Permian core that have not been fully developed. Well performance continues to improve and the horizontal rig count has increased 70% since mid-August to 243.
Most forecasts are optimistic about tight oil output. The EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2017 anticipates that tight oil production will decline in 2017 but recover to 2015 peak levels by 2019 (Figure 8). WTI oil prices are expected to be $64 per barrel then and slowly increase to $80 by 2025. Tight oil production will rise to 6 mmb/d by 2026.
Figure 8. EIA Forecast: Tight Oil Will Not Recover to 2015 Levels Until 2019 and Then Increase to 6 mmb/d by 2026. Source: EIA AEO 2017 and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Although the forecast seems reasonable, it assumes that 2016 was the oil-price floor and that prices will continue to increase. It also suggests that prices will not reach the $70 threshold for new oil sand projects for 5 years. Other forecasts like HSBC are more aggressive and anticipate mid-$70 WTI prices as early as 2018.
The Big Long
If the last few years since the oil-price collapse have taught us anything it is that prices are unlikely to move in one direction. Nor are they likely to conform to mainstream analyst views.
Markets have been driven partly by an expectation that prices must inevitably return to levels of at least $70 to $80 per barrel sooner than later. This belief has endured despite a persistent global supply surplus and outsized inventories. The long-anticipated OPEC deus ex machina was lowered onto the stage in late 2016 and markets responded enthusiastically. Yet WTI prices have not crossed $55 per barrel so far.
It is difficult to find supply-demand fundamentals support even for the limited price rally that began with the OPEC announcement. There may already be an expectation premium of $10-12 per barrel built into current prices. Yet markets don’t always follow fundamentals in the short term although they return to them eventually.
U.S. ultra-light oil production is a central component of the global supply dilemma. Permian basin companies are adding rigs like the boom days of 2011 to 2014 have already returned. When tight oil output is high, some fraction can neither be refined nor exported and simply adds to inventories. This occurs despite the best efforts of Canadian oil sand producers to bring as much heavy oil to the party as they can.
Oil consumption remains relatively weak in the U.S. This is disturbing against the backdrop of surging tight oil rig counts.
Consumption increased with very low oil prices in 2015 and early 2016 but not to the levels before the Financial Collapse of 2007-2008 (Figure 9). Most of the increase was from greater gasoline use and more refined products exports. Modestly increasing prices in 2016 dampened consumption suggesting that demand is highly price-sensitive.
Figure 9. Consumption fell >2 mmb/d after 2005 but recovered 1 mmb/d with increased refined product exports, lower oil prices & increased gasoline use. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
This does not represent peak demand. All credible forecast anticipate oil-demand growth over the next decade or so, albeit at a slower rate. Instead, it reflects an economy weakened by excessive debt and changes in Federal Reserve Bank monetary policy after mid-2014.
These rather gloomy observations may explain TransCanada’s motivation to complete the Keystone XL Pipeline now. I’m talking about a long bet on oil prices.
Future supply constraints will become greater the longer new E&P project investments are deferred. At the same time, the decline of production from developed fields will be more pronounced. Improved production efficiency will further accelerate reserve depletion. Meanwhile, new field discoveries are at the lowest level in decades and the average reserve size of those discoveries has gotten smaller.
Oil prices will increase dramatically at some time in the next several years. That should lead to the next oil boom and the Keystone XL Pipeline will be there to provide heavy oil to U.S. tight oil plays.
There is little doubt that a supply crunch lurks in the future. The risk for the Keystone XL is that much higher prices will collapse the global economy before new projects can fill the pipeline and pay out the investment.
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*EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report estimate of 4.8 billion barrels includes all conventional production in the counties in which the tight oil plays are located
Matt Mushalik contributed to the research on light oil.
Art Berman, Forbes
rockman on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 7:27 pm
So much bullshit in this story I can only hit the the big piles. LOL.
First, no one is going to make a “bet” by investing $billions building the northern leg of Keystone XL. That isn’t done. As explained numerous times such pipelines projects use the “subscription process” to GUARENTEE the future revenue which would justify the investment. It fixes a minimum volume of oil thru-put at a set price. Difficult to confirm since it’s considered a trade secret but the original subscription target may have never been reached. The hint comes from TransCanada announcing extensions of the cut off date of the subscription window as President Obama delayed the border crossing permit.
So the BIG ? whether any companies will subscribe to the leg of KXL…or any other new pipeline for that matter. Currently there is ZERO NEED for additional pipeline capacity given that Canadian oil imports peaked in Jan 2016. Just a rough estimate but there is probably 10% to 20% excess capacity today. And that will significantly increase when the almost completed Dakota Access is ready.
What? How does the Dakota Access fit into the story? Since the MSM didn’t think it was important (and didn’t want to steal some of President Obama’s thunder) they didn’t point out that the DA Pipeline is effectively a substitute for KXL. Wait a second, that doesn’t make any f*cking sense: the DA doesn’t cross the Canadian border. No it doesn’t. But look at the map in the article: see what they call the “Base Keystone”. It’s actually just the Keystone Pipeline. The KP is obviously different then KXLP…look at the map.
Now follow closely. Even after the Obama approved permits to expand capacity on the EXISTING border crossing KP there still wasn’t room for the Bakken production in the Dakotas. No problamo…just build another pipeline to haul the Canadian oil which would free up capacity on the KP to haul Bakken oil instead of doing so by the more environmentally risky rail system. And what to call that new pipeline: KXL. Too bad they didn’t bother to put the DA line on the map: it parallels the KP in the Dakotas. Yes: all those additional pipeline crossings of “sacred lands” and watersheds would not have happened if the KXL had been built. IOW the “success” of the environmentallists getting President Obama to not approve KXL was the cause of the DA pipeline being built.
Now one more big issue. The northern leg of KXL will not add one bbl of pipeline capacity between Cushing and the Gulf Coast refineries. As seen below that capacity was expanded long ago. The big add-on was the southern leg of KXL that President Obama pronounced as critical to the US economy and ordered all federal agencies to do anything to expedite its completion. The pipeline was finished a bit ahead of schedule.
“The Seaway Twin line will run parallel to the existing, reversed Seaway pipeline from Cushing, the delivery point for the U.S. oil futures contract, to Jones Creek, Texas. It is one of a handful of pipelines that oil firms are building to move crude from Cushing to the Gulf Coast after oil from U.S. shale boom and Canadian oil-sand fields was left bottled up in the Midwest over the past few years.
TransCanada also commissioned the southern leg of Keystone XL, now known as the Gulf Coast pipeline. The line carries 700,000 bopd from Cushing to Port Arthur, Texas.
Together, the Seaway Twin and the Gulf Coast line add 1.2 million bopd of crude takeaway capacity at Cushing. It was this bottleneck at Cushing that inhibited Canadian oil imports…not the delay of KXL.
Additionally a 65-mile, 36-inch diameter lateral from Jones Creek to Enterprise’s ECHO terminal in Houston allowed the reversed, older Seaway line to run closer to its 400,000 bopd capacity. Another 30-inch diameter pipeline will connect the ECHO terminal to refineries in Beaumont and Port Arthur Texas by mid-next year.
OK, one last big pile of bull shit to deal with: the idea that condensate is of little value:
“…ultra-light oil production is a central component of the global supply dilemma. When tight oil output is high, some fraction can neither be refined nor exported and simply adds to inventories. This occurs despite the best efforts of Canadian oil sand producers to bring as much heavy oil to the party as they can.”
Without exporting US condensate to Canada we would loose about 40% of the oil sands imports. They use 350,000 bopd of our condensate to make dilbit. Canada has only 450,000 bopd it requires. And the reason we import a higher % of heavy crude then we once did is because of the shale boom. Previous we also had to import a lot of condensate to blend with the heavy oil to create the 31° to 33° API blends that run more efficiently in our refineries. The same reason eastern Canadian refineries have paid a premium to import hundreds of millions of bbls of Eagle Ford condensate.
And the Canadians don’t export “heavy oil” to the US. They export dilbit: a mixture of bitumen and condensate (about 40% from the US) with a gravity in the low 20’s API.
Midnight Oil on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 8:33 pm
A fine tribute to the human species is digging up a landmass the size of Florida so they can ride on California freeways a bit longer…while toasting the climate.
Plantagenet on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 8:49 pm
The protestors don’t realize the oil trains we have now are pulled by huge diesel engines and emit more CO2 then the pipeline will emit. If the protestors get their way we’ll have MORE CO2 emissions and MORE Greenhouse warming in the future.
Cheers!
Ty on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 9:04 pm
Rock – I really appreciate your detailed information. I read your comments every time.
Thank you.
Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 9:45 pm
Planty, where you been? Christ you had me worried. I thought maybe you went extinct with a bunch of the other plants we rubbed out last week. Don’tcha know how much I miss your scholarly and insightful comments? Who you blaming everything on these days now that the brown bama bomber is gone away to work on his legacy? Ooh, I hope it’s somebody I hate too. Don’t make me wait too long sugar britches.
Nony on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 10:25 pm
It’s a complicated topic and the article has a lot of good content. But I have to agree with Rock, that it has issues. The following are mine:
1. KXL will not be built on spec. They will sign up shippers. If they don’t get them anymore, they won’t build it. (Like an LNG project that gets passed by another terminal or that has less demand after world LNG prices drop.) But in any case, the risk/decision on finances is in the midstream companies hands. We don’t have to cry for them if they build it and don’t make money, because they get the upside if there is good demand.
2. I don’t know the exact numbers but there are several hundred thousands of bpd flowing on trains from the Bakken and from the sands. This article should have discussed that as it is obvious current volume which could go onto another pipe. (I’m not even arguing a position, just saying this is important to framing the discussion.)
3. Sands have close to a $20 basis difference and Bakken has close to $10 (for the marginal barrel). These will drop in half with sufficient pipelines to get off Mr. Buffet’s trains. (Numbers inexact but close, concept is the main thing.) Dropping your basis differential means more money for producers and means some marginal projects can go forward now (more volume). You can argue about how much. But this article doesn’t even mention the concept.
4. I agree that world prices are likely to linger low (futures strip is in the $50s. Not certainty but “casino betting odds”) and this will affect shale production
5. It does look like the Bakken decline is moderating a little bit with price now moving into the 40s and then the 50s.
6. Discussion of EF and Permian volumes is irrelevant to this topic.
7. Yes, America has refineries configured for heavy oil. But that is because they MAKE MORE MONEY by doing so. Because heavy oil (despite all the “cat piss” whining) still costs LESS than WTI. Also, it is possible to run a refinery with cokers and visbreakers (designed for heavy oil) on lighter oil. This was done in Atlantic Canada for a couple years when buying Eagle Ford was like free money.
rockman on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 11:53 pm
Ty – You’re welcome. Part of the reason for all the details is to just plant a big “I told you so” on the folks who refused a few years ago to see the future playing out infrront of them. Granted it takes a bit to understand the dynamics of the BIG PICTURE. But it wasn’t like the various companies were doing this in secret. Dozens of published reports explain in detail how every bbl of oil sands production was going to make it across the border whether President Obama approved the KXL permit or not.
It was bizarre: the fossil fuel hunter, Rockman, explaining how it was going to happen and a variety of greernies bragging how it wasn’t going to happen. It was if the greenies were intentionally providing cover for the pipeline companies by filling the MSM with stories about how they were stopping those exports. IOW the Rockman was the whistle blowing activist and the “environmentalalists” were oil industry shills.
And something else the MSM continues to ignore:
“TransCanada is moving forward with its attempt to seek more than $15 billion compensation under the North American Free Trade Agreement following the U.S. government’s rejection of the company’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline.”
{Understand this wouldn’t be decided in court: under NAFTA it would be decided by arbitration. IOW the US govt would be legally bound to comply. This is one of the aspects of NAFTA that President Trump has been critical. It also may explain why he issued that exec order: to save $15 billion tax dollars – from a few days ago:}
“Pesident Donald Trump revived the stalled project last week when he invited TransCanada to reapply for a permit to cross the border, something Barack Obama rejected late 2015. Judge Hoyt has given TransCanada three months to secure a decision from the Trump administration on whether it will grant the company a permit for the $8-billion project. The Department of State’s decision has the potential to render the matter moot.”
DerHundistlos on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 2:35 am
Trump’s first overseas military action was a disaster, and of course Trumpie tries to blame it on Obama.
News flash and shocker………..Trump lies?????
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 6:00 am
We are seeing desperation in the Cheetos whiners who can’t see the whole edifice is croaking, creaking and cracking and “yours truly” groups are part of it. Trump is the poison pill and we all have a new world to look forward to soon. The social issues are not the key part of this change although this is leading to a “cold” civil war which will make it worse. What will do us in as far as the status quo is economic nationalism. This WILL, I assure you, drop economic output at a time of economic stagflation and instability. Unfortunately it is likely what we need to curb globalism and its extremes that are now killing us. Nationalist don’t understand this but they are doing “God’s” work or the “Devil’s”. Whoever they are. LOL.
We are close to minimum operating levels for this drop. How far this will go is a whole other question. I don’t think we know much like we didn’t realize the post 08 “new normal”. We didn’t think that was in us but we should have known moral hazard and pretend are uniquely human. This is an adapting and self-organizing system following human nature. Trump may or may not take global conflict off the table or he will just reshape it with less Russian conflict and more Chinese. This means war is still an issue but I am looking towards economics as the known end game for the status quo with war is still an unknown.
It is too early to blame Trump. Obama and his failed groups who shape the country for the last 8 years are. Bush was responsible for ensuring the American empire would fail with the Iraq invasion and overseeing the 08 fiasco that Clinton initiated with Glass Steagall repeal. As you see this is just a slippery slope of one common thread and that is increasing moral hazard of following the unsustainable and rejecting the wisdom to say “NO”. The wisdom that says we are nearing limits and we are destroying good things for greed. Trump is what we all get for this including the global menagerie of Anglosphere, Euros, China men, and the many other useless places called countries. These places willingly followed or had no backbone to say “NO”. Now they whine their anti-American song and it is pathetic. Only the poorest can whine that song. The rest feasted on greed.
This is a human failure under the banner of Pax Americana. We are ending this Empire of failure and soon to leave the post 08 new normal of failed market based capitalism on global steroids. The next phase is surely going to revolve around something with an underlying futile drive to growth in an environment of decay and decline. That is an incongruous juxtaposition and will end badly. All this will be in a continued environment of ecological failure and climate instability. If you add up all these abstracts the equation is really quite dreadful. It can be made less dreadful with honesty and wisdom. Wisdom in this case is NO and LESS. No one should think we are getting out of this whole. We are screwed, blued, and tattooed says the sailor after a hard night of leave.
I am not sure wisdom is possible except through a purge of population and artificial affluence in a sobering crisis and we may not survive crisis. This artificial affluence is currently wealth transfer and economic extend and pretend. We are saying we are fine. We are telling people who are being milked of their livelihood they are alright. We are not addressing overpopulation by saying that will work itself out or that it is all fine. There have elaborate narratives that explain all this from a completely corrupted academia and media that the failed industrial/political arena then use to justify more exploitation. It is a vicious circle of unreality now and the kind that end civilizations. The insanity of the established religions and cultural narratives that have no interest in talking against increased population. The religion of economics supports them by say more people means more growth. Meanwhile all metrics are in decline and systematically chaos is entering our networks and social fabric. This while our techno optimist claim we have a budding energy transition ahead. Others talk about robots and smart everything. AI is talked about by people with no real intelligence.
This macro evolution is a recipe for crisis in the guise of catch 22 traps of no exit. Normal people are keying into the story society is selling us is not right. The problem is those we trust have lied to us. The media has no integrity. Politicians as seen from Wiki tell us one thing and do another. Academia, the media, and liberal/capitalism is teaching us this macro un-holiness so the population is now insane. We are no longer a society we are a dysfunction. If Clinton did anything good that was to inadvertently show us just how bad everything is at the top and everywhere. Moral hazard and corruption is in our foundations. When cancer is in the lymph system and bones you a dead man walking.
We are blindly walking into some kind of crisis. Is this a reshaping without too much suffering or is this the “Mother of All Ass Whoop-ins”. I see it as both and over a time in a process but WTF do I know or anyone else know for that matter. Life is getting back to what it was when it was local before it became modern. We knew less then. We know so much now we in effect know less. We rode a wave of development in an obsessed drive to progress ripping up anything standing in the way by efficiency and more potency. Now that we are near the end of that drive as is the case with all projectiles we are losing velocity and beginning to sink. We now have no basis to fall back to and are in effect staring into the abyss of a bottleneck. This is the inconvenient reality of growth at all cost. Now we have to grow or die. Good luck figuring that one out with solar robots and artificial stupidity that is masquerading as intelligence. Turn to nature because the only truth I can find any more is with her. “Nature enjoys nature and only nature can overcome” was an idea given to us by the Egyptians who themselves reached for the sky only to fall back to earth.
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 7:00 am
The Doors of Deception:
“Exposing The Left’s War Against Ordinary Americans”
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/02/01/war-ordinary-americans-paul-craig-roberts/
“The Saker is a level-headed person. I take it seriously when he spells out the threat to Trump’s presidency presented by the paradoxical alliance of the ruling oligarchs with what purports to be the “liberal/progressive/left.” It is amazing that the “liberal/progressive/left” are aligned with war and not with peace and are aligned with the OnePercent against the working class, whom they despise as “Trump deplorables.” The Saker believes that Trump is under serious threat of being overthrown and that he must strike first or go down. As my readers are highly intelligent, I am not surprised that some of them have arrived at the same conclusion as The Saker.”
“Readers share my amazement that there are large numbers of people so stupid as to think that a ban on Muslim immigrants is far worse than murdering Muslims in seven countries for fifteen years. Bush and Obama conducted genocide against Muslims over the course of four presidential terms, and no protesters sought their impeachment for what are most certainly war crimes and crimes against humanity. But Trump’s perfectly legal immigration action is alleged to be grounds for impeachment!”
“But not to the protesters. It wasn’t the killing of their families and destruction of their homes and countries that might make Muslims into terrorists. It is banning them from entry as refugees that turns them into terrorists! Try to imagine the absurdity of political leadership in the US and Europe during the 21st century. Western governments inflicted so much death and destruction that they created millions of Muslim refugees in order to accept as immigrants peoples who might harbor thoughts of revenge.”
“Are we to conclude that there is no such thing in the US and Europe as a liberal/progressive/left, only Soros-funded protesters for hire, as in the orchestrated Maiden protests in Kiev and today in Macedonia and Hungary? Correct or not, this is the conclusion of many. Illegitimate protests discredit all protests. Could we be witnessing the ruling oligarchy using its pawns to discredit in advance valid protests at the time when they move to reassert their control?”
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 7:20 am
IT IS THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT AND I FEEL FINE. REFERENCE MY FINGER ESTANISHMENTARIANS. Trump may be eliminated but the lies have been exposed. Life will never be the same and you are to blame for it and you are to blame for why your lies have been exposed.
“World Leaders “Stunned” By Trump’s Bluntness”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-03/world-leaders-stunned-trumps-bluntness
“As President Trump drops tape (and tweet) bombs left, right, and center; often saying exactly what he is thinking, it appears the world’s leaders (and establishmentarians) are “shocked” at his inconvenient truthiness. As Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, said, reflecting on Brexit concerns, “…our reliance on the United States, in normal times, wouldn’t worry too many people… But Donald Trump doesn’t seem to be a normal president.” Which seemed to sum things up nicely.”
“The troubling thing for allies is this kind of hard-edged, transactional approach, where longstanding relationships and all that shared history and shared military sacrifices going back to World War I just doesn’t seem to count for anything,” said Andrew Shearer, who served as national-security adviser to two Australian prime ministers. “Every deal is a struggle between a winner and a loser,” he said of Mr. Trump’s style. “That approach might work in business, but as someone who’s been around foreign policy for a long time, I just don’t see how it’s going to work internationally.” “In the short run everyone is trying to get a handle on the new administration,” Mr. Haass said. “But in the medium and long run, whether governments like or loathe what they’re seeing, I believe what every government will do is essentially rethink its relationship with the United States.” “Worrying declarations by the new American administration all make our future highly unpredictable,” European Council President Donald Tusk, who represents the governments of the EU’s 28 member states, wrote in a letter to EU leaders this week. He stressed the need to maintain a united Europe “whether we are talking to Russia, China, the U.S., or Turkey.” “We had hoped for a more nuanced, sophisticated version of Trump after inauguration,” said a senior European diplomat. “Alas, that was not to be.”
“Trump has often remarked he prefers to be unpredictable and it seems that is exactly his approach, and Richard Haass, the chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Mr. Trump has introduced uncertainty into the role the U.S. plays in the world.”
Apneaman on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 8:14 am
Davy, I’m seeing desperation all around. The libtards may be desperately freaking out, but a buffoon like Cheeto and his repulsive cancer crew only come to power in desperate times, but nothing new under the sun eh? What I’m seeing is a battle between competing factions of elites with no benefit for the masses either way. Again, not new. Your own revolution was both a proxy war between France and England elites and a battle between, the colonies elites and England’s. Many regular folks and their descendants obviously gained too, but there was still abundant low hanging fruit to go around – the better part of a half a continent. It was a beginning of a new and exciting human project (for whitey) and the potential was real. What’s the potential with the current scenario? A gang of rich climate deniers who want more and either deny or do not even acknowledge declining energy. The mass extinction under way, ocean acidification and every problem and predicament relating to overshoot is either never mentioned or denied/minimized. What is the potential? When the dems were in, you talked a great deal about overshoot being the main culprit and the politics secondary at best, but suddenly Cheeto gets in and 90% + of your discussion reverts to rabid monkey politics and saying liberals every third word. Where did that come from? How about right wing think tanks and media. For three years the root cause is decades in the making and systemic then out of the blue it’s all on liberals. The left big club members are evil, but the right big club members are pure as the driven snow. Sounds like a right think tank meme to me.
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 8:25 am
Sound wisdom to me Ape. We both see the absurdity of our civilization plain as day. Neither of us can stand lies even though we can’t help being caught up in it because it is called life or increasingly in our collective cases death. How did that McCarthy song go…
When you were young
And your heart was an open book
You used to say live and let live
You know you did You know you did You know you did
But if this ever changin’ world
In which we live in
Makes you give in and cry
Say live and let die (live and let die) Live and let die (live and let die)
What does it matter to ya
When you got a job to do you got to do it well
You got to give the other fella hell
You used to say live and let live
You know…
Apneaman on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 9:57 am
I know it well, Davy. When I was a kid, I had a paper route and collected bottles and cans (Canadian deposit law) and started buying records. Beatles and Paul McCartney and Wings were the very first ones.
Won’t be long until the humans, in unison, start singing this one……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCGvZgDvtkU
JuanP on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 11:13 am
Apneaman “What’s the potential with the current scenario?”
I agree, Ap. The situation is completely hopeless. Left and right are but two sides of the same rusted coin. I admit that I am having fun with Trump, though, and with the reactions against him. Trump’s election victory was a huge wake up call for many denialists. His being elected makes it that much harder to believe in falsehoods like democratic ideals and human progress.
Keith McClary on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 1:34 pm
Will the “American workers and American steel” requirement significantly affect the economics of the project?
paulo1 on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 2:50 pm
Good comment, Apneaman. Well said. (You sound almost positive, today. 🙂 (Are you voting this May?)
Juan, your statement: “His being elected makes it that much harder to believe in falsehoods like democratic ideals and human progress.” Why, because he is simply truthful/obvious in what he is doing? One of the last signed ‘decrees’ was to remove protection of individual(s) retirement investments from the squid bankers. He actually smiled as he signed it. This is not good. It is akin to smiling while he authorizes an economic drone strike, on fellow citizens.
I was surprised at your cynicism, to be honest. It is unusual.
What are the answers, then? Inevitable collapse with the .1% grabbing a few more handfuls on the way down? Or revolution after collapse speeds up in earnest.
I actually miss GW, to be honest. He was actually a nice guy while he held the world down for his buddies. Obama only pretended to be, and cheeto-head is just plain out-of-control stupid and nasty.
I had a success I wish to share. This morning I phoned my sister down in WA. We spoke for 1/2 hour. For the entire conversation we did not mention cheeto-head, once. As we said our goodbyes I remarked (without explaining), “I did it on purpose, did you”? She replied with a simple, “Yes”. The elephant was in the room and it was so bad we did not talk about it. Couldn’t. What could I say? “This is what a collapsing Empire looks like. How’s the ride going for you and the family”?
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 3:08 pm
Paulo, you are lost with your left right divide. (Thanks survivalist). Your side is disgusting but you can’t even see it. I agree with you on many point with Trump. If you guys had some objectivity I could actually find a reason to agree with some of your whining. Until you can look in the mirror it is a lost cause. Can’t change someone who doesn’t want to change. You guys will likely never recover from this. I have not seen any of you acknowledge any of your failures. It is that hubris that got you to this point and now you are doubling down. Talk about an elephant in a movement.
Apneaman on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 4:53 pm
Davy, WTF?
Paulo said, “I actually miss GW, to be honest. He was actually a nice guy while he held the world down for his buddies. Obama only pretended to be, and cheeto-head is just plain out-of-control stupid and nasty.”
Davy said “Your side is disgusting but you can’t even see it.”
Davy, he complimented one conservative POTUS and dissed 1 Dem POTUS and dissed a different conservative POTUS.
I’m confused as to what “side” that puts him on. What’s the formula for that anyway?
Oh right, I forgot. Anyone who displays even the slightest bit of criticism towards the saviour is by default a heretic. Kinda reminds me of GW. Either you’re with Cheeto, or you’re with the terrorists. There is no other option allowed. Spoken like a true zealot.
“Manichean or Manichaean. PRONUNCIATION: (man-i-KEE-uhn) MEANING: adjective: Of or relating to a dualistic view of the world, dividing things into either good or evil, light or dark, black or white, involving no shades of gray.”
Cheeto is the light of the world……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b07-yKnKRMQ
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 5:02 pm
Are we talking presidents are issues? Or maybe your point is protect “mi amigo” and trash the “bad hombre”.
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 5:05 pm
“I’m confused as to what “side” that puts him on.” Definitely your side.
makati1 on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 5:07 pm
Ap, a certain redneck wannabee refuses to see that Trump is just the gasoline on the collapse fire storm. He is so into “patriotic” flag waving and defending the sinking ship America that he cannot, or will not, accept that there are better places to be now. Too bad.
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 5:13 pm
“Makatichean . PRONUNCIATION: (mak-ka-ti-uhn) MEANING: adjective: Of or relating to a dualistic view of the world mercia-bad, Asia-good, dividing things into either good-Asia or evil-mercia, light-Asia or dark-U$A, black-America or white-Asia, involving being old and gray.”
Nony on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 6:06 pm
Just because I agree with you on something, doesn’t mean I agree on all. Saying the tar sands oil will “make it over the border” is not the same thing as saying it will make it across in a cost effective manner. Differentials for railbit are huge. I have worked with the guys who built the rail unloading facility at Beaumont. You can see an Exxon coker in the distance if you look east.
Apneaman on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 6:35 pm
Davy, the intertubes dun confused me. There are more sides than a decagon. Can pick a different one each month? Since I’m pro cancer, which side does that put me on?????
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDSN1F72QU4
We’ll all be on the same side within a human lifetime. One happy group. The newest members of the Fermi’s Paradox club.
Apneaman on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 6:41 pm
It’s Time to Get Real: Trump’s a Symptom, Not the Problem
Lower and middle class citizens around the world are angry for good reasons:
Their incomes have been stagnant or falling despite governments telling them the economy is strong.
T
heir cost of living for things that matter has been rising despite governments telling them inflation is low.
They see the upper class getting richer and not being punished for crimes.
They carry a high debt load and see that interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
For the first time in a long time they worry that the future may be worse than the present.
They sense that something is broken and that leaders are not speaking the truth.
Their anger has resulted in:
Brexit
Trump
blame of others
extreme parties gaining power around the world
social unrest in many countries
war drums
The economic stresses experienced by many citizens (and by most countries) are real and have been caused by the depletion of low-cost oil.
https://un-denial.com/2017/02/03/its-time-to-get-real-trumps-a-symptom-not-the-problem/
Dats what I been saying.
Cheeto’s just a symptom. Same as a pus filled buboes is a symptom of the bubonic plague. All natural. All good.
Davy on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 6:48 pm
Ape, what other boards have you been on? You are not here as much. I am not trying to be cute or tricky just curious.