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Page added on December 1, 2016
End Games Part I: There Aren’t Always Enough Fish in the Sea
The board game “Fleet” (Eagle-Gryphon Games) is a simple engine-building game with auction mechanics. Each player starts with limited financial resources that are then used to generate capacity for more resources by purchasing fishing licenses and hiring captains. The game ends when there are either no more fishing licenses to distribute or no more tokens of fish to extract from the ocean. Whomever has the most points from licenses, ships and fish, wins. The lost message in the end game is that, contrary to the adage, there are not plenty of fish in the sea. Fleet demonstrates the issue global overfishing, the potential for conflict over diminishing resources, and how non-state navies may have the answer to this security issue.
While nuclear weapons, cyberwarfare, conventional weapons and terrorisms are rightfully significant national security issues, food security – particularly with regard to marine protein – left unabated potentially poses an equally catastrophic threat to regional and global populations. World per capita fish consumption is at historically high levels according to the 2016 “State of World Fisheries and Agriculture” report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Fish consumption has doubled in the past fifty years. The impact of this growth is further amplified by population growth. The world’s population was five billion less than thirty years ago. In the next decade, it will reach eight billion. In short, a larger population will create an even higher demand for marine protein. Nor is it just human consumption that has increased. Fifteen to twenty percent of marine protein is converted to fishmeal for livestock.
Food consumption has affected the availability of marine protein. Paul Watson, founder of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, was raised in the fishing village of St. Andrews, New Brunswick, recalls lobster traps being lined up a half mile down roads where they are now largely absent. The local industry has been replaced by other sources. “Mussels were considered dirty when I was a kid,” he recalls in one of his homes. This change can be seen in other regions on the east coast of North America. The small village of Port Clyde, Maine may be better known as the home of the Marshall Point Lighthouse that Tom Hanks’ character runs to in the movie Forrest Gump or for artists such as the Wyeth family. Although a dozen or so lobster boats still get underway in the early morning hours nearly every day, they have faced a shortage of the once-plentiful herring which are used as bait in lobster traps. Further down the coast, oyster population in the Chesapeake Bay is at one percent of its historical levels. Where more than two thousand skipjacks – the sailboats of watermen used for oyster dredging – once dominated the Bay, today approximately only two dozen remain active. Further out, the once-rich Grand Banks struggles to yield fish; in 1992 the Canadian government banned fishing there when cod collapsed. In 2015, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration placed restrictions on cod fishing in the Gulf of Maine.
These local accounts are part of global trends. According to the World Wildlife Fund, “more than 85 percent of the world’s fisheries have been pushed to or beyond their biological limits and are in need of strict management plans to restore them.” FAO monitors 600 marine fish stocks and has reported that: “3% are underexploited 20% are moderately exploited 52% are fully exploited 17% are overexploited 7% are depleted.” One of the most dire reports came a decade ago from Dr. Boris Worm at Canada’s Dalhousie University in which he predicted that by 2048, there would be no more commercial fishing if no measures were taken to replenish stock.
The collapse of some fish and the decreased availability of others has an immediate economic impact on consumers who pay more for seafood. In addition, consumers are required to turn to previously underfished stocks. According to Watson, “as soon as we overfish one species, we target a previously uncommercial species and make them commercial. We adapt to diminishment.” One example he gave in a recent interview was pollock. “They’re tasteless and now they’ve developed a way of turning it into artificial crab. They add a chemical smell and a chemical dye.” Another example is the intentionally misnamed Chilean Sea Bass which is in actuality the less marketable toothfish.
The worst damage to fishing may be the illegal fishing trawlers. Watson, who has spent forty years with Sea Shepherd but spent a decade before that on the oceans, says that the biggest violators are Russia, China, Spain and Japan and estimates some forty percent of seafood is caught illegally. Scientists note the number is lower (13 to 31 percent) but no less significant. Other reports of Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing has varied based on regions. In the U.S., for example, 20 to 32 percent of imported wild-caught seafood is illegal; in other regions, it is as high as 50 percent. Globally, illegal fishing is an annual $23 billion industry which will likely rise as fish stock diminishes and consumer demand rises.
Increased competition for marine protein is already manifesting in the South China Sea which may be on the verge of collapse. Given China’s population it is expected that it is the country that catches and consumes the most fish, but it has taken unexpected action against illegal fishing. For example, earlier this year Sea Shepherd’s Operation DRIFTNET documented and chased the Chinese Fu Yuan Yu fleet. As a result, the ships were required to remain in port, the captains were suspended and each received a reported $300,000 fine.
Not all incidents are as benign. Incidents between fishing fleets and national coast guard vessels are increasing in the Far East as nations claiming various territorial rights have rammed other fishing vessels or fired upon one another. Recently a South Korean Coast Guard ship fired at a Chinese fishing vessel.
While it is possible that diplomatic negotiations may deescalate potential incidents, it is unlikely. States will respond to hungry citizens before implementing change that may ensure future replenishment of resources, particularly regarding marine protein. One of Paul Watson’s oft-repeated adages is, “if the oceans die, we die.” It is a truism that if marine life is depleted beyond recover, the cascade effect will be detrimental but competition for diminishing resources may well spark a broader conflict before that occurs.
Coming Soon:
Part II: All Roads and Shipping Lanes Lead to…
Part III: The Ocean’s Realist
Part IV: Ocean Warriors – Sea Shepherd’s Fleet
Claude Berube has taught in the Political Science and History Departments at the Naval Academy. He has co-authored three non-fiction books and writes the Connor Stark novels (Naval Institute Press.) The views expressed are his own and not those of the Naval Academy or Navy. @cgberube
Image: U.S. Coast Guard
26 Comments on "End Games Part I: There Aren’t Always Enough Fish in the Sea"
penury on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 8:28 pm
I do not know why more people are not worried about the oceans, the mass extinction in the Pacific should have caused some alarm,
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 8:35 pm
Warmer oceans shift fish schools north. Kill oyster beds. Lobsters move north also.
Acidification kills off the coral reefs where many species breed or which supplies their food.
Over fishing kills off the breeders. Pollution weakens all.
The oceans are dying. Too late to save them. Another reason that humans will not make it past 2100.
dave thompson on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 8:58 pm
Never eat fish. Methyl mercury is really bad for you.https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwju-9rcwdTQAhXs44MKHfJbA7QQFggaMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FMethylmercury&usg=AFQjCNGvODT3RALMK4dt_ZyaVKM52Bxtng&bvm=bv.139782543,d.amc
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 9:42 pm
dsve, you have no idea what is in the food you eat. Even if you grow your own, it is likely to be contaminated with lead from decades of car exhaust fumes from leaded gasoline. Contaminates in the rain/snow. The water you drink. Etc.. If you use aluminum cooking pots, utensils, foil, you are consuming aluminum. If you use Teflon, you are consuming chemicals. If you use plastic containers, Saran Wrap, etc., you are consuming chemicals. And what is in the lining of cans of veggies, meats, fish and fruits is anyone’s guess.
I eat fish 4-5 times a week. I will continue to do so as long as I can. It is good for you and cheap. We will probably raise tilapia on the farm. The farm is 5 miles from a fishing port here in the Ps. Lots of fresh fish, most still alive, from the Pacific.
If I stopped eating everything that “experts” claimed was not good for me, there would be nothing left to eat. LOL
dave thompson on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 10:42 pm
I agree Mak our food in this industrialized world has many dangers. I should restate then; “I choose not to eat any type of fish due to methyl mercury”. Oh and micro plastics too.https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiq75nq2NTQAhUU0IMKHQ_mCa0QFgg-MAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fscience-environment-36435288&usg=AFQjCNEo7LMp_WWZAYmhh6WhiXYYAq97rw&bvm=bv.139782543,d.amc
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 10:52 pm
dave, thanks for your clarification. I thought you meant that no one should eat fish. Probably, no one should eat fish, but there is not much left to eat that is not dangerous or poisonous in quantity. And we do have to eat in quantity. Some ton or so per year for each of us.
Apneaman on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:08 pm
Mak, I eat 8-10 cans of no name tuna a week. I’m not worried. 35 years of smoking cigarettes have given my innards a protective coating (similar to under coating on a vehicle) and it’s made me impervious to toxins. I luvs me some meat byproducts too. I bought a 12 pack of no name chicken dogs for a $1 and a few had bones in them -kinda like crunchy peanutbutter. All sorts of stuff in the frankenfood.
Who knows what one will find?????
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_m3vU6P68U
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:16 pm
Don’t want to eat contaminated fish?
“The Nordic Food Lab wants you to eat blood, insects and brains to save the world”
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/the-nordic-food-lab-wants-you-to-eat-blood-insects-and-brains-to-save-the-world-a7446876.html
Sorry, I’ll take my chances with fish.
Apneaman on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:27 pm
U.S. daily record highs beat record lows by a staggering 51-to-1 ratio in November
http://mashable.com/2016/12/01/temperature-records-ratio-november/#BLALtKIIiaq1
Apneaman on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:34 pm
Liquified aluminum rims dramatically display power of Tennessee wildfires
THE MELTING POINT OF ALUMINUM IS 1,221 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT …
http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/tennessee-forest-fires-liquefy-aluminum-rims#ixzz4RcdnoXUt
I can hear the deniers now… there’s no way a forest fire can do that – them evil doing climate scientists planted Thermite in the rims when no one was looking. Yep, climate scientists brought down the rims cause they wants to control the world N stuff. Another environment false flag.
Apneaman on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:39 pm
Global Sea Ice Area – Jan 2016 to Nov 30 2016
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc_global_area_byyear_b.png
Damn!!
dave thompson on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:48 pm
One more reason the oceans are dying. http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/newsjunkiepost/cIWy/~3/T7e4i1vXo3g/
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:50 pm
Funny isn’t it? The world’s religions believe that Hell is someplace you go to AFTER you die. Now, mankind is bringing Hell on earth so we can enjoy it BEFORE we die. LOL
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:57 pm
If you go to this web site and look at the North and South polar regions, even though it is now summer in the South pole and winter in the north pole, but the temps are about the same.
https://earth.nullschool.net/
You can look at a lot of different real time weather and air movement by clicking on the word EARTH at the bottom left.
makati1 on Thu, 1st Dec 2016 11:59 pm
BTW: You can spin the globe to any position by clicking on it and holding the button down while you move it around.
Davy on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 5:00 am
One issue little discussed is how global fishing is destroying the structure of the food chain causing a variety of consequences and unintended consequences. Take away high level predators and the whole ecosystem suffers as an example. It is not only the subspecies that are being fished out. Asian’s taste for shark fins is an example. Man is not a substitute for these higher predators. Man mainly drains the sea of life not enhancing it through diversity and cleansing of sick and dying.
Sustainable fish culture with captive fish ponds is not going to mitigate the global need for fish protein. These farms are supplied with feed that is generally derived from the ocean. This will just further disrupt the whole ocean ecosystem. Fish farm areas will have issues with concentrated waste no different from animal confinement operations on land. They are generally located close to land and will have adverse local effect. This waste also along with acidification and dead zones will leave the oceans among the first ecosystems on a wide scale to die. Since they are so big they will likely also harbor the seeds of new life after the extinction event.
Apneaman on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 12:01 pm
Fall 2016 Was Record Warmest For Dozens of Cities from Northeast to West
“Fall 2016 was the warmest on record for dozens of U.S. cities from southern New England to the Great Lakes, Southeast, central and southern Plains and Desert Southwest.
At least 73 locations with a period of record dating at least to 1950 tied or broke their previous warmest September through November period in 2016, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Among the cities setting records, Atlanta, Dallas, St. Louis and even Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, crushed their previous fall records from 1931 – a Dust Bowl year.
September – November 2016 departure from average temperatures (degrees Fahrenheit) through November 29, 2016 (the latest data available at time of this article). (NOAA/CPC)
Salt Lake City set a record warm fall for the second year in a row. The top three warmest falls in that city have now occurred in the last five years.
Despite colder weather in November, America’s northernmost town, Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow), about 320 miles north of the Arctic Circle, also had their record warmest fall.
One of America’s southernmost cities, Brownsville, Texas, also easily soared past their previous record warmest fall from 2004.
Three prominent heat waves contributed to this record-setting fall.”
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/record-warm-fall-2016-us-cities
Apneaman on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 12:07 pm
Increasing Frequency and Severity of Floods
“The report points to an alarming trend of flood disasters affecting ever wider areas, while at the same time becoming more severe. Furthermore, flooding has taken its toll on agriculture and food supplies, exacerbating malnutrition problems in poorer areas of the world.
Floods Increasing Across the World
According to the report, floods strike in Asia and Africa more than other continents, but pose an increasing danger elsewhere. In South America, for example, 560,000 people were affected by floods on average each year between 1995 and 2004. By the following decade (2005-2014) that number had risen to 2.2 million people, nearly a four-fold increase. In the first eight months of 2015, another 820,000 people were affected by floods in the region.
This trend has continued into late 2015 where overflowing rivers forced over 100,000 from their homes in Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay.”
http://floodlist.com/dealing-with-floods/flood-disaster-figures-1995-2015
Apneaman on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 1:08 pm
WHY WILDFIRES ARE SUDDENLY RAVAGING THE SOUTHEAST
GET USED TO FIRES IN THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS
“The humid Southeast isn’t supposed to be prime fire territory. “Wildfires in the southeastern United States are usually small and do not produce much smoke…”
“This year, scores of weather stations throughout the South recorded record-breaking temperatures. Adding a huge drought and high-speed winds to the mix has made the region particularly vulnerable to fire.”
“According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 41 percent of the Southeast is experiencing severe drought. More than 31 percent of drought-stricken areas are classified as “extreme”—conditions that can lead to major crop and pasture losses and widespread water shortages.”
http://www.popsci.com/why-wildfires-are-ravaging-southeast-this-fall
Death toll from Tennessee wildfire climbs to 11
“Investigators have determined the so-called Chimney Tops 2 fire, which laid waste to whole neighborhoods in the resort town of Gatlinburg earlier this week, was caused by unspecified human activity, officials said.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fires-tennessee-idUSKBN13Q5U1
“was caused by unspecified human activity”
Really? Let me specify it for y’all. It’s 250 years of fossil fuel burning and thoughtless land use/abuse that have radically altered the atmospheric chemistry of the planet leading to human caused global warming. Throw in overpopulation and overdevelopment and the rest of the cancer.
Lawfish1964 on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 1:16 pm
Mak, I’m also a huge fish eater. In fact, I’ve eaten mullet every day for the last 6 weeks. They’re running pretty thick right now due to spawning season. Plus my son is an amazing fisherman. Whenever we catch surplus mullet or mackerel, I pressure-can it and eat it like tuna. And the shrimp are thick too. I have about 40 pounds in the freezer, along with about 5 bags of redfish and trout. All for the cost of tackle and some fun labor.
And for what it’s worth, in Florida, the fish have never been more plentiful. I’ve been fishing there since about 1970 and it’s gotten better every year since 1995, when the constitutional net ban was enacted.
Apneaman on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 2:15 pm
Destruction of the Amazon was supposed to be slowing down. Instead, it’s speeding back up
“From August of 2015 through July of this year, the enormous forest lost nearly 8,000 square kilometers of area to clear cutting, representing a 29 percent increase over a year earlier (when 6,207 square kilometers were lost). That’s an area considerably larger than the state of Delaware.”
http://wapo.st/2gVVHml
Ripping out one of the lungs of the planet.
makati1 on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 7:34 pm
Lawfish, I used to do a lot of fishing. Mostly fresh water. Not much left in the rivers of PA except carp, suckers and catfish. Most of the rivers and streams there are polluted with industrial chemicals and improper sewage processing from towns and cities. Not much left in the mountain streams either as they are way over fished.
The river running by our farm here in the Ps is clean, clear, fast flowing, but not many fish. Over fished for food, not sport. However, I look forward to fishing in the Pacific, where the river empties into the ocean. It is a very relaxing sport. Good luck in the future. ^_^
Hubert on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 9:14 pm
Chinese should become cannibals and learn to eat their own like Hillary. This might be the only way of saving the World.
makati1 on Fri, 2nd Dec 2016 11:02 pm
Hubert, or maybe Americans could only eat what they need and not what they want? Obesity will take out 1/3 of the U$ population when the SHTF. Hard to run from the zombies if you are carrying an extra 100 pounds of fat and never walked more than 50 feet at one time in the last decade. Lots of energy to burn in that fat. Makes a lot of candles. LMAO
peakyeast on Sat, 3rd Dec 2016 6:47 am
@mak: The less fish – the more relaxing?
makati1 on Sat, 3rd Dec 2016 7:44 am
peaky, some times my ‘best’ day of fishing was when I never got a bite. Just the quiet beauty of nature to absorb and enjoy.