Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on November 13, 2016
Global oil demand could peak by 2020, says Shell
The world’s second-largest energy company by market value is less confident than others that the majority of vehicles on the world’s roads will continue to be powered by fossil fuels for the next few decades.
The rise of electric cars has led many analysts to make predictions about the future of the oil industry.
ExxonMobil and OPEC have both made statements indicating confidence that the majority of vehicles on the world’s roads will continue to be powered by fossil fuels for the next few decades.
But Shell recently made a prediction that is a bit less confident.
The world’s second-largest energy company by market value, Shell believes oil demand could peak by 2020, Bloomberg reports.
“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” Shell CFO Simon Henry said in a conference call last week.
That peak could occur “somewhere between five and 15 years hence,” Henry said, and will be driven by “efficiency and substitution.”
Shell’s vision puts it at odds with ExxonMobil which, in its annual outlook, said it expects oil demand to increase 20 percent between 2014 and 2040.
The company previously said that electric cars would account for less than 10 percent of global new-car sales in 2040.
OPEC has also said that 6 percent of cars on the world’s roads in 2040 would be powered by anything other than gasoline or diesel.
Among its members, Saudi Arabia believes its oil reserves will last 70 years, and that demand will grow, primarily from increased consumption in emerging markets.
However, the country is also pursuing an alternative economic strategy that would see it shift to investment as a source of revenue, in order to protect against a collapse of the oil industry.
Even if oil demand peaks fairly soon, as Shell predicts, it may not decline into oblivion immediately.
Oil could very well remain a part of the transportation-fuel and energy-generating mix for some time.
Shell also expects to remain in business by shifting to production of natural gas, as well as biofuels and hydrogen.
Natural gas is already a major factor in the impending death of coal as a power source for electricity generation in the U.S.
That’s largely because natural-gas reserves accessed through the controversial process of hydraulic fracturing (known as “fracking”) have made the fuel cheap and abundant.
Natural gas produces lower carbon emissions than coal, but is still not as clean as renewable-energy sources such as solar and wind.
13 Comments on "Global oil demand could peak by 2020, says Shell"
Davy on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 7:52 am
We may not have cars by 2040. We may have some kind of mad-max salvaged version minus the Hollywood special effects. Demand is clearly unstable and dysfunctional today. This is evident from all the bad debt from years of mal-investment. You don’t build a future with poor economic, social and environmental decisions. You don’t build a growing future when you hit a brick wall of growth from the end of an energy transitions that represents man’s final modern development. Energy is civilization for man. We follow energy not the other way around.
Renewables and their inadequate storage devises will ride the depleting energy gradient of fossil fuels down no different than the rest of man’s social and economic arrangements. Real demand that is healthy and represent good decisions that invest in a future that is a solid human living arrangement is evaporating. Good decisions are evaporating because man is in macro denial of a collapse of his modern global civilization.
EV’s may play a role in the next few years shrinking oil demand but not much. They represent such a low base now as to be almost insignificant. People have to forecast out 25 years with generous assumptions to show an impact. It is more likely a collapsing “real” economy is the reason oil growth is stagnating and set to go into actual decline not EV’s.
In the next few years or months until the economy is truly in depression like circumstances these false predictions will be rampant. The human hopium crowd will still see technology, efficiency, and the innovation of the two propelling man in progressive growth and intellectual advancement despite a harsh reality of collapse. Like Baghdad Bob the tanks will be in the central square as the hopium crowd is trumpeting victory. This article is a fine example of the dead end of human sapience. We can’t even acknowledge and accept there is a brick wall directly in front of us. Our large brain is great for fantasy and very poor with reality.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 9:40 am
Shell is so brilliant.
They figured out that by 2020, fat cigarette smoking tattoo’d USA rednecks, would rather push their lifted
black monster trucks, than put gasoline in the tank.
Still another approach, is they can lower the tailgate and sit on it, point a shotgun rearwards, fire it regularly, and the recoil will propel the truck forwards. This would be impractical in the city, but most dumb rednecks live in the country where they could propel their trucks
that way.
Thanks Shell for the brilliant wisdom that by 2020 people
don’t want gasoline anymore, LOL.
So can a wizard like Rockman, explain me why the gasoline prices are so high on the left coast? $3.19 a gallon for premium. Is the oil already running out? I
think Trump will refill the oil reservoirs, once he is in office?
penury on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 10:05 am
I agree, demand destruction will be stronger than depletion in the short run. So how long is the short run? Who knows? What difference does it make? Why are “gasoline prices higher on the “left” coast?” Try checking your taxes on the product, then check and see if you have local sales tax, subtract the tax from the price and then compare,and do not forget that it costs money to transport the fuel, so how far are you from the refinery? Now is your gasoline expensive? Compare the cost of a gallon to the price of your favorite latte, then call H. Shultz and complain,
Shortend on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 10:12 am
On state is preparing for 2020 Israel
The scooter will cost between $3000 and $5000 depending on the type of battery. The target market is Tel Aviv, where traffic is snarled much of the day. He said that almost 50 percent of the world’s population lives in cities, and traffic in almost all of them wastes time and resources.
There were dozens of new smart products on offer at the Fuel Choices Summit. The summit is meant to spark a “dialogue about the world’s most forward-thinking approaches to transportation, cutting edge technologies and future business models, and to promote Israel’s ambitious goal of reducing 60% of the country’s oil consumption by 2025.”
Some of the products on offer seem more far-fetched than others. Omer Bar-Yohay, the CEO of EViation, introduced an all-electric six-person air taxi with a 600-mile range.
http://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-pioneering-green-transport-hopes-to-cut-oil-use-by-60-percent-472447#article=6020QzExOEZFMzg3NDEyMzUxQTgzMkQ0M0I5NTVDQzlDNzQ=
rockman on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 11:34 am
“So can a wizard like Rockman, explain me why the gasoline prices are so high on the left coast? $3.19 a gallon for premium.” Very easy answer…for a variety of reasons:
“Special fuel formulas – California’s tough environmental rules mandate that gasoline sold within the state be produced according to strict formulas that reduce pollution. But the gas is more expensive and difficult to produce than dirtier fuel sold elsewhere. Few refineries outside the state are equipped to produce it. What’s more, the state gasoline formula changes twice a year, from a winter recipe to a summer blend designed to retard evaporation during warm-weather months. The summer blend is even more expensive and trickier to make, increasing the chance of refinery mishaps. In addition, refiners try to use up inventories of one type of fuel before the switch to the other type, increasing the risk of price volatility.
Disappearing refineries – The number of refineries in California has plunged during decades of consolidation. Others were weeded out by the expensive investments required to comply with clean-air standards. In 1982, the state was home to 30 gasoline-producing refineries; now there are 11. Chevron Corp. and Tesoro Corp. control more than 50% of the state’s refining capacity.
[Which has allowed Washington state (the 5th largest refiner) to f*ck their neighbors over]
Few independent retailers – Of the approximately 10,000 service stations in California, less than 15% are independent and not affiliated with a well-known brand. That means less competition than in many other states that have higher proportions of independents. What’s more, in California, there are no independent refiners to supply independent retailers. As a result, the no-name stations have to buy their fuel from big refining companies that already have contracts with their branded stations. When supplies run short, the unbranded stations may have difficulty getting gasoline, which causes their prices to soar higher than those at branded stations.
No interstate pipelines – Interstate pipelines, like those that flow out of Gulf Coast refineries, could carry gasoline quickly and cheaply to California. But no such pipelines exist into the Golden State from other refining regions. Instead, fuel must come by ship or truck. Only when pump prices are soaring inside California is it worth it to pay those transportation costs for the few out-of-state refiners capable of producing California’s gasoline formula. In addition, California refineries also tend to keep inventories tighter than the national average, federal energy statistics show. As a result, prices surge quickly when a disruption occurs from events such as machinery breakdowns, power outages or labror problems.
High taxes – California drivers pay a hefty toll at the pump in federal, state and local taxes and fees. In all, about 60 cents a gallon goes to those costs, which is one of the nation’s highest tabs for gasoline taxes and fees. The tax total for California motorists is constantly changing because one of the taxes — the sales tax — is figured as a percentage of the whole. As a result, when there’s an increase in the underlying price of gasoline, the sales tax also increases.
Lots of driving – California has far more licensed drivers — 24.4 million in 2013 — than any other state, Many drivers and a robust tourism industry means that the amount of driving within California easily tops that in other states, an estimate expressed in “vehicle-miles” measured at official monitoring stations. In April, 2014, motorists cruised through 31.1 billion vehicle-miles on California roads. Today that number has increased.”
[There you go…a lot of good reasons. All one has to do is understand the facts. For the most part representing the policies of its citizens. As a result they are getting exactyly what they should be: high motor fuel prices.]
rockman on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 11:47 am
CA – $3.19/gal for premium
In Rockman’s neighborhood in E Houston: lowest price for premium: $2.09/gal
But the Rockman lives in the same town as the second largest refinery in the western hemisphere and 70 miles from the largest refinery in this half of the world. And, oh yeah, in the state producing more oil then any other. And, oh yeah, the largest oil import facility in the country. And, oh yeah, our motors fuel tax is 1/3 that of CA.
As I said earlier: folks usually get what they should get.
Anonymous on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 2:27 pm
Shell also expects to remain in business by shifting to production of natural gas, as well as biofuels and hydrogen.
LOL
-NatGas. Shell likely means frack-gas. Unless they plan on stealing Russia’s or the ME’s natgas, western oilcos have already extracted most of the ‘real’ NG in areas they have access to.
-Bio-fools. Yea sure. Produces little?, if any?, new net energy after production costs are factored in. Expensive, time-consuming, subsidized. *May* be an energy sink. Sounds right up shells alley.
-Hydrogen. LoL. Sure, for what and who? H2 production requires Natgas as a feedstock, otherwise, H2 is actually an energy SINK in most instances. Delivers less net energy at higher costs than even bio-fools. I presume these idiots are referring to using H2 to power cars? Good luck with that.
Boat on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 5:47 pm
Rock,
N Houston around Spring gas is around $1.89.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 13th Nov 2016 6:25 pm
Thx for explanation guys.
I will move to Houston.
Live next door to refinery.
Drill hole in the pipe, and get gasoline for free.
;O)
Hubbert on Mon, 14th Nov 2016 4:13 pm
Even oil companies are admitting?
Kenz300 on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:41 pm
You can’t out run Climate Change.
It will impact all of us and all future generations.
Adapt or die. Oil company business models will change.
onlooker on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:49 pm
Tough to adapt to this
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien … 07881.html
Climate change may be escalating so fast it could be ‘game over’, scientists warn
New research suggests the Earth’s climate could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than thought, raising the spectre of an ‘apocalyptic side of bad’ temperature rise of more than 7C within a lifetime
onlooker on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:52 pm
Seems like every day now some new finding or article is coming out showing how screwed we are relative to climate and climatic changes. As they say all that remains now is for the fat lady to sing. Its all over for the smart monkey and other creatures