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Page added on November 4, 2016
Shell Warns ‘Peak Oil Demand’ Could Be Reached In 2021
A senior executive for Royal Dutch Shell claimed demand could reach its peak as early as 2021, which is much sooner than anticipated by other analysts.
“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” said Shell Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry, in a Tuesday conference call.
“And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport,” Henry added.
Other major oil providers have estimated that peak demand is farther down the line. Exxon Mobil in its annual outlook said “global demand for oil and other liquids is projected to rise by about 20 percent from 2014 to 2040.”
The government of Saudi Arabia claimed oil demand would continue to grow based on increasing consumption in emerging markets.
Meanwhile, the World Energy Council believes peak demand will arrive in 2030 should renewable energy and other technologies such as electric cars keep their fast level of growth. Yet Henry noted that Shell is in a prime position to adapt to the increased popularity of clean energy options.
“Even if oil demand declines, its replacements will be in products that we are very well placed to supply one way or the other, so we need to be the energy major of the 2050s,” Henry said.
“That underpins our strategic thinking. It’s part of the switch to gas, it’s part of what we do in biofuels, both now and in the future.”
Indeed, Shell will be one of seven international oil and gas firms including BP, Statoil, and Saudi Aramco that will collaborate in a renewable energy investment fund expected to be officially unveiled this Friday. The companies, which are also participants in the United Nations-backed Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, will also announce the next step of their plan to reduce the oil sector’s emissions.
Shell on Tuesday reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits of US$2.8 billion yet warned that the company’s outlook continues to be uncertain.
19 Comments on "Shell Warns ‘Peak Oil Demand’ Could Be Reached In 2021"
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 4th Nov 2016 10:20 pm
Israel military support for al Qaeda
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-war-israel-al-nusra-golan-heights-allies-a7398246.html
The same group that did 9/11 is supported by USA and Israeli military and intelligence apparat.
Al Qaeda was supported in this way prior to 9/11 and since 9/11
Only a fool would think there was a brief interlude in the support during which time they did 9/11
Mr. Pockets on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 1:48 am
interesting that its been shown the oil giants spend $115 million every year obstructing and distorting climate advocacy… then turn around and vow to link arms and form an investment vehicle for renewbles development…. gosh, what changed? … or is this just all the small price to pay for the appearance of being on board with the Paris Agreement?
Mr. Pockets on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 1:50 am
as for peak demand, im still not buying it… since Kopitz’ presentation at Columbia 2 years ago, im still convinced this ultimately remains a supply problem… no one else?
joe on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 1:56 am
Truth, such things should be of no suprise at all. Back when Russia backed both Egypt and Syria they tried to wipe out Israel during Yom Kippur, Israel has a long memory about. After the US helped Israel defeat the Arab coalition a plan was hatched to divide and rule the muslims by flipping Egypt to US support and isolating Syria and denying them Lebanaon to operate in as an alternative easier entry to Israel other then Golan. Since that decision yet another plan is no in progress to totally destroy Syria and put very weak (human rights etc not important) states onto the border of Israel and Jordan, this plan is an obvious extension of the Balkanization of Lebanaon which has no chance of challenging Israel ever. So support for al qaeda on Jewish borders is needed though because Sunni muslim extremists dont have any natural allies in or near Golan. Remeber, the west views Sunnis as united in belief but diffuse politically, thats why they think they can control it, and Saudi Arabia/Pakistan is jihads true master both now staunch western allies. The mistake the west and Israel is making is its belief that it can itself resist the impact of the inclusion of jihadism in it arsenal of statecraft. Also this idea is not new, during ww1 the Germans followed this idea as well to hurt the British by paying for jihadists to attack India, the British answer was do a better job of it, they paid the Hashimites in Mecca to call a jihad against Turkey and betrayed them with Sykes/Pichot thus creating both the causes of todays troubles (Israel and Syria). The western leaders are so aloof that they see no danger of importing thousands of people per day from the troubled regions they created.
So what is it that Israel is doing differently from Germany, Britain or the US? Nothing of course, its just not allowed when its not us thats doing it. Sadly all we are doing is kicking the can of the day of reckoning down the road, and before we reach the end there will be allot more Charlie Hebdos and Nice’s and 9-11s.
peakyeast on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 8:26 am
Entertaining thought…
Its Jevons paradox in reverse: Fossil fuels is becomming more expensive with more externalities thus becomming less efficient (even when taking tech advances into consideration) leading to less usage.
🙂
Kenz300 on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 11:02 am
The oil companies and the auto companies need to get their collective heads out of the sand and realize that the world is changing with or without them.
Climate Change is real it will impact all of us.
It is time to move away from fossil fuels and embrace alternative energy sources like wind, solar, wave energy, geothermal and second generation biofuels made from algae, cellulose and waste.
They need to change their business models and move from being OIL companies to ENERGY companies. The auto industry needs to move from just building compliance vehicles to embracing electric vehicles and start putting development and advertising behind them.
Plantagenet on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 11:14 am
The population of the earth is still on track to grow by several billion people, with most of the new population growth occurring in Africa and other undeveloped regions. Its hard to believe that oil demand will peak in 2021 even even as more and more people live on the earth.
Cheers!
peakyeast on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 11:22 am
@mr.pockets: It is both a supply and demand problem.
0.1$ per barrel oil = much more demand
100$ per barrel oil = much less demand
And it does looks like it is difficult for the market to value oil correctly. Either one party is going bankrupt or the other party is.
Goldilocks is soon to be deprived of satisfactory bed and porridge.
peakyeast on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 11:23 am
Forgot two lines:
0.1$ per barrel oil = much fewer viable resources
100$ per barrel oil = even old roads are good chop up to burn !
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 12:56 pm
What a scam. Repackaging peak oil
depletion into ‘demand has peaked’.
Yeah right. So oil consumption went down
because nobody wants oil anymore.
That kind of word manipulation, is as sick as
Hillary calling illegal aliens the
‘undocumented immigrants’.
Also known as ‘undocumented democrats’.
Vote Trump. Burn it all down, man.
kanon on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 2:52 pm
Consider that “demand” can be managed effectively for a while by improving public transportation, passenger rail, and the like; and raising fuel taxes. The inference is peak oil will be branded as peak demand due to the public “preference” for reducing fossil fuel usage.
Boat on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 4:18 pm
kanon,
If I remember correctly the last peak for oil was close to 3
Boat on Sat, 5th Nov 2016 4:20 pm
3 mbpd more than demand. The next peak will be less than 1 mbpd.
shortonoil on Sun, 6th Nov 2016 8:19 am
All of the demand increase that is now being seen is coming from the petroleum industry itself. It amounts to 1.3% of total production, or 1.2 mb/d. Considering that the industry is now losing $2.5 trillion per year on its full life cycle production cost, 2021 may be a little optimistic?
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
mx on Sun, 6th Nov 2016 8:31 am
Get a Grip people.
1900 Streets of New York, Filled with Horses and 1 Car.
1910 Streets of New Your, Filled with CARS, and 1 Horse.
Shell has stopped predicting Linear Growth, based on this years growth in the EV population, and is now predicting the more realistic Near-Geometric growth.
Indian Oil, is now building 2.7 GIGAWATTS of Solar.
Come On People, Do you want Exxon to be come the next Marathon Coal?
mx on Sun, 6th Nov 2016 8:36 am
Sorry, thought Marathon went bankrupt.
Peabody Coal
Mark Ziegler on Sun, 6th Nov 2016 9:19 am
Create a new market for the stock investors. Other than that nothing will change as we pump down to the bottom of the energy pyramid. Down into the irrecoverable oil. Electric cars will simply consume other fossil fuels for power plants. The road to the most efficient transport is a comprehensive rail system.
Kenz300 on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 5:36 am
Buy a bicycle, walk or use public transportation.
Electric cars, electric trucks, bicycles and mass transit are the future. Fossil fuel ICE cars are the past.
Every major auto maker has announced that they will produce all electric vehicles in the next few years. Even diesel gate VW has plans to produce a number of all electric vehicles.
NO EMISSIONS. Climate change is real..
Total Continues to Diversify, Takes Strategic Stake in AutoGrid
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/09/total-continues-to-diversify-takes-strategic-stake-in-autogrid.html
Boat on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 7:39 am
Kenz300 on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 5:36 am
Don’t forget the e-bike, China has 200 million of them and growing.