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Page added on October 10, 2016
Doing the Energy Maths
In a recent Guardian article, columnist George Monbiot takes on the Governments who have signed and are in the process of bringing the Paris Agreement into force, arguing that their actions are not aligned with limiting warming of the climate system to the extent the agreement requires. The argument presented revolves around the ongoing development of fossil fuel resources.
Like many commentators in this space, the climate maths used is completely aligned with our current knowledge of the science, as presented by the IPCC in their 5th Assessment Report. This maths is a simple subtraction of current cumulative emissions (about 600 billion tonnes of carbon since the start of the Industrial Revolution) from the level which corresponds to 1.5°C (about 750 billion tonnes) or 2°C (about 1 trillion tonnes). That difference, when compared with currently producing coal mines and oil / gas wells argues against developing further such resources as this will take us past the Paris goals, assuming the current mines and wells are produced to depletion.
But this discussion, along with many similar presentations, presents only half the story. As well as recognising the important climate maths, we also have to do the energy maths. This then becomes a more complex narrative, in that it requires both an analysis of current and future energy demand and a view on the expected rate of deployment of a new energy system to replace it. It means meeting demand so as to cater for an increasing population, raising current global living standards and driving economic growth as underpinning realities; i.e. delivering not just the 500 EJ we currently use each year, but the likely 1000 EJ we will collectively use each year later in the century.
George Monbiot places no expectation on the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), which implies that the energy system he proposes must actually be zero emitting so as to limit the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and meet the Paris objectives. But the industrial world we live in is built on processes such as iron ore smelting and cement manufacture, both of which are inherently carbon dioxide emitting. There is also no line of sight to technologies that could replace hydrocarbons in services such as aviation; so we need to be able manage carbon dioxide directly. Deploying carbon capture and storage in the energy system therefore becomes a critical part of the solution set. It can be attached to industrial processes directly or used indirectly to offset the emissions that might come from a source such as aviation.
CCS is a reality today, even though deployment remains limited. The technology isn’t vapour ware as claimed by George Monbiot; in fact it has been proven at scale. One example is the Shell Quest facility in Canada, which was built within budget in just three years after the final investment decision was taken. It has now celebrated a year of operation at design capacity and stored 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide some 2-3 kilometres down in the Basal Cambrian Sandstone formations found under large parts of Alberta. The issue with CCS is not the technology or the ability to construct a single facility at scale, but the development of a suitable set of economic support mechanisms to support further large scale demonstration and infrastructure development so that CCS can be ready to be deployed as required. That requires real policy work.
Climate science, future energy demand, likely energy system technologies, the reality of CCS and overall energy infrastructure deployment rates are just some of the factors that must be brought together to attempt a full analysis of the climate issue that confronts us. In recent months I have worked with colleagues in the Shell Scenario Team to do just that and we have published a new report which I have posted blogs about a number of times over the summer period.
“A better life with a healthy planet: Pathways to net-zero emissions” attempts to answer the tough questions which George Monbiot has rather glossed over. It pictures an energy system that does reach net-zero emissions, even as some fossil fuel production continues, but to meet the demand from sectors such as aviation, shipping, petrochemicals manufacture and heavy industry where renewable energy alternatives either don’t exist or are unlikely to be effective. The solution is more complex than “replacement with renewable energy and low-carbon infrastructure” as suggested by George Monbiot, simply because of the broad range of goods and services that come from oil, gas and coal. An end picture of the emissions outcome is presented in the publication and shown below – sitting alongside this will be an electricity system several time larger than today, largely powered by wind, solar, nuclear, hydro and various other technologies. It is likely to take much of this century to get there.
“The New Lens Scenarios” and “A Better Life with a Healthy Planet” are part of an ongoing process – scenario-building – used in Shell for more than 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. We base them on plausible assumptions and quantification, and they are designed to stretch management thinking and even to consider events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
It is important to note that Shell’s existing portfolio has been decades in development. While we believe our portfolio is resilient under a wide range of outlooks, including the IEA’s 450 scenario, it includes assets across a spectrum of energy intensities including some with above –average intensity. While we seek to enhance our operations’ average energy intensity through both the development of new projects and divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a net-zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years.
David Hone serves as the Chief Climate Change Advisor for Royal Dutch Shell. He combines his work with his responsibilities as a board member of the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) and Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES). After graduating as a chemical engineer, Hone started his career as a refinery engineer in Australia during another period of very high oil prices when energy efficiency was paramount. He spent a period in the Netherlands, before returning to Australia to become involved with another side of the oil industry, energy economics and supply. This led to a move to London as an oil trader for Shell followed by a time managing the global trading and chartering of Shell’s crude oil tanker fleet. In 2001 he took up his current role and has not looked back since.
23 Comments on "Doing the Energy Maths"
Apneaman on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 6:59 pm
The IPCC is an outdated joke.
For fucks sakes. What, are there only like 5 other people besides me who understand the scale of what we’ve done?
‘We’d have to finish one new facility every working day for the next 70 years’—Why carbon capture is no panacea
https://goo.gl/Deh4oC
Apneaman on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 7:03 pm
More maths. That exponential deal man fails to comprehend, says Prof B.
Climate change has doubled western US forest fires
“No matter how hard we try, the fires are going to keep getting bigger, and the reason is really clear,”
http://phys.org/news/2016-10-climate-western-forest.html
makati1 on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 7:28 pm
Ap, Reality is a bitch most Westerners want to ignore. Deep down in their genes, they know we are screwed but cannot bring themselves to face it as rational adults. They cling to every lie and promise they hear and read as a ‘safety blanket’ pulled up around them, protecting them from a scary world they don’t want to see.
Most here are uneducated in the science areas necessary to understand the big picture. It is obvious. It is also obvious that they are totally brainwashed by their government, which they may never be able to break.
That brainwashing began over 70 years ago when TPTB realized that they would not hold onto their power if the rest of the world was allowed to share the world’s resources equally. Then the dumbing down of the population began in earnest. The overall story is way too long to go into here. You either see it or you don’t. Most don’t or won’t.
We can discuss how much oil is left, whose money is more important or whose military is the best, but the bottom line is what is happening in nature.
How many tripping points have we passed?
How fast is the temperature going to rise?
Will disease or famine kill off most of us first?
Climate Change is the Godzilla in the room that most want to ignore. Keep posting the signs of the times Mother Nature is sending to the ‘intelligent’ ape. You might get through to some eventually, but I doubt it.
Davy on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 7:30 pm
The games we play in our collective minds. CCS is a joke. The carbon math is beyond human capabilities. We are screwed, blued, and tattooed. What can we do? Make the best of a sinking ship. We might have some time left but it won’t be clean and green. In the meantime I am going to laugh at the greenies and their elaborate plans.
shortonoil on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 7:44 pm
The problem is that the Temperature/CO2 graph (according to their data) is not linear. It is a curve, and sloping upward. It will take 1350 billion tons to bring the temperature to 2.5° C. 3.0° C is almost off the chart. It is taking an increasing amount of carbon to raise the temperature.
Maybe the data is bad?
Anyone interested could check for themselves.
John Kintree on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 8:29 pm
The Shell Quest carbon capture project captures about a third of the CO2 emissions. The project cost about $1.85 billion to construct, with most of the money coming from the Canadian and Alberta governments. The annual operating cost is about $41 million.
John Kintree on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 8:33 pm
Sorry, typo. The project cost was $1.35 billion.
https://sequestration.mit.edu/tools/projects/quest.html
Apneaman on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 8:34 pm
It’s a carbon planet and there is more than enough locked up in permafrost to fry the humans and many others. The permafrost is already in meltdown. Positive self reinforcing feedback loops they call them. This is not being accounted for in most models. Same with forests. The Amazon was a major carbon sink and is now a carbon source. Plenty of carbon locked up in trees – anyone been paying attention to the very obvious increase in length and severity of wildfires? I have only provided about 300 links on all this stuff ffs. It’s a carbon planet. All the predictions are coming true and faster than previously expected. Don’t anyone say they weren’t warned……………repeatedly.
makati1 on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 8:54 pm
Ap, I think we have reached the hockey stick part of the carbon/temperature increase graph. We are in uncharted territory.
rockman on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 9:43 pm
“That difference, when compared with currently producing coal mines and oil / gas wells argues against developing further such resources…”. And once more the devious approach used to not anger the villagers (voters). PRODUCING coal, oil and NG creates relatively little GHG. The vast majority of CO2 entering the atmosphere DIRECTLY is coming from the ff CONSUMERS. Obvious such folks as this writer and most others involved in the CC issue know this obvious fact. Just as they and the vast majority of politians know that voicing policies aimed DIRECTLY at the consumers is a certain non-starter to the conversation.
They also know they can cloak their efforts against energy producers just so far. If it becomes obvious to the consumers that such efforts will significantly impact them negatively those politicians will replaced. So the goal of many of TPTB of this dynamic will be to satisfy the situation with words much more so then actions. Thus allowing them to continue their careers through to retirement IMHO.
Apneaman on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 10:37 pm
Check out this aerial picture of a neighbourhood in Delhi. There are many more like it and not just in India. Everyone of those people are striving and in some sense expecting for their their material lives to continue to improve. They want what we have and their prime minister has promised it to them. Think the environment is a big concern to the billions of asian’s just starting to get a taste? Who could blame them? Everybody wants some.
https://imgur.com/1uiUTkv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk2J4RrB35c
JuanP on Mon, 10th Oct 2016 10:53 pm
Since they claim their math is based on the IPCC and I consider the IPCC a political rather than a scientific institution I skipped this one. The IPCC forecasts are like the IEA’s, systematically wrong and hopelessly optimistic. I would have to be a fool to believe in their crap so I refuse to read anything based on them. I have better things to do with my time!
Cloggie on Tue, 11th Oct 2016 2:10 am
The IPCC is an outdated joke.
It is better than nothing.
We might have some time left but it won’t be clean and green. In the meantime I am going to laugh at the greenies and their elaborate plans.
Nihilistic attitude. Whining about collapse all day and at the same time making fun of people who are doing something about it.
http://tinyurl.com/z2jzmj3
Click on column header for 2011 for latest data:
CO2/ton/capita:
USA——17
Canada—14
Russia—13
Germany—9
EU——–9
Life in the EU is pretty good, that’s why millions would like to live here. North-America wouldn’t suffer if they reduced their carbon consumption to current European levels, while Europe is working on eliminating CO2 emission altogether. Just drive smaller cars and switch on the airconditioner only during the hottest days.
brough on Tue, 11th Oct 2016 3:35 am
I’m not sure why Shell Oil are involved in the carbon capture game, I think it’s a PR exercise funded by national governments. Here in the UK, when the government cancelled their grant in the Peterhead CCS, Shell immediately cancelled the project. It may be that Shell are trying to deflect attention from the real issue, that of ICE activity. To which there is no real answer.
After all, carbon free electricity generation is achieveable where as with transportation there is a whole lot of technical and social obstacles to overcome if we are to get anywhere near finding a solution.
Davy on Tue, 11th Oct 2016 7:04 am
Clog, per capita is a poor indicator in a world of nations in economic proximity. People use per capita as part of their agenda of who is good or bad. In relation to reality your EU is not far below the US in aggregate. The US and EU together are right there with China. The bellow percentages are in relation to each other.
China 10,540,000 54%
United States 5,334,000 28%
European Union 3,415,000 18%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
Carbon equals economic activity roughly and any drop in economic activity will be devastating to the current global Ponzi. It takes only a relatively small drop in economic activity to get to hard times or worse. Green efforts are insignificant in relation to total activity. If we found a way to scrub carbon it would likely takes as much energy to scrub it as is generated by normal activity. That means there would be no improvement. That may sound extreme but that is a taste of the inconvenience of an energy and carbon trap. Modern life cannot be reformed. When everything you do generates carbon trail you can never get ahead. Even if by a miracle we get a handle on carbon we have initiated feedback loops in the environment that will not be stopped. This all becomes an activity of chasing your tail. Let’s quit that and start building life boats.
You want to feel smug in your greenness but you are dirty and stuck with being dirty. Cars are essential to your economy as anywhere else. The EU green efforts are insignificant in scale being too little too late. While I admire your optimism and focused action they are rooted in denial. Reality and its corresponding actions would be much more effective. There is much we can do if we would leave our make-believe world.
Sissyfuss on Tue, 11th Oct 2016 8:45 am
“It’s likely to take most of this century to get there.” Some scientists say we have 10 to 20 yrs to get our act together, some say it’s already too late. We will know within the next 5 yrs who is working off the correct schedule.
And serving as Chief Climate Change Advisor for Dutch Shell; is that not akin to being music director on the Titanic?
Dredd on Tue, 11th Oct 2016 10:19 am
“Chief Climate Change
AdvisorDenier/Liar for Royal Dutch Shell”Do the math (UQx DENIAL101x).
Apneaman on Tue, 11th Oct 2016 2:32 pm
Brazilians Flee Drought-Ravaged Land Once Touted as Frontier
“It was advertised as Brazil’s “new frontier,” the vast savanna running alongside the Amazon jungle that would help meet China’s insatiable demand for food. The farmers of Brazil heeded that call, razing trees, plowing virgin land and planting soybeans at a frenetic pace for much of the past decade.”
“Agrifirma Brasil Agropecuaria Ltda., backed by financier Jacob Rothschild, spearheaded the soybean boom in Matopiba by cultivating 18,000 hectares (44,500 acres).”
http://www.agweb.com/article/brazilians-flee-drought-ravaged-land-once-touted-as-frontier-blmg/
Climate change worsens NE Brazil’s drought
http://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-change-worsens-ne-brazils-drought/
Apneaman on Wed, 12th Oct 2016 12:05 pm
Total Human Failure On Climate
“In the context of the Paris agreement, it boils down to this observation, repeated from above.
So we say 2 degrees is unacceptable. But we don’t act like it is.
In short, and in political terms, humans are saying one thing and doing another.
Why anyone would be surprised by this is beyond me.”
“We are talking about unalterable human behaviors here (see below). And in so far as attitudes and beliefs also arise in the unconscious, these are almost always unalterable as well (there are rare exceptions).”
“In keeping with how the human animal works, it becomes necessary to put a positive, optimistic spin on future behaviors (on our future “intentions”). Thus we resolve our “cognitive dissonance”, but we do so to no effect. Humans can pretend they control their destiny and effectively defuse (filter) the threat. In short, they have successfully deceived themselves. That’s what the Paris Agreement accomplished psychologically, and that’s all it accomplished. ”
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/10/total-human-failure-on-climate.html
Apneaman on Wed, 12th Oct 2016 1:04 pm
New permafrost map shows regions vulnerable to thaw, carbon release
“Northern permafrost soils store twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere. When permafrost thaws, the organic matter in the previously frozen soil begins to decay, releasing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane.”
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-10-permafrost-regions-vulnerable-carbon.html#jCp
Davy on Wed, 12th Oct 2016 6:06 pm
“Four Thousand Mile Long River of Moisture Could Dump 2 Feet of Rain on The Pacific Northwest”
http://tinyurl.com/hahea6h
“Conditions in the Context of Climate Change — Here We Go Again. Over the past year, a record hot atmosphere has helped to generate extreme moisture levels aloft. Such record to near record moisture levels have helped to produce 500 to 1,000 year flood events in places like Louisiana, Texas, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia and in other parts of the US and around the world. This week, record high moisture levels contributed to flooding rains falling over Virginia and North Carolina in association with Hurricane Matthew. Now, a similar extreme moisture pattern is taking aim at the Pacific Northwest.”
makati1 on Wed, 12th Oct 2016 6:34 pm
Food surplus? Not for long…
”
North America’s wettest harvest in about five years is hiking farmers’ costs as they dry crops to avoid spoilage and forcing them to take price discounts that are pinching incomes already under stress.
One-fifth of the United States and Canadian crop belts were soaked by abnormally high precipitation during the last month, said Drew Lerner, meteorologist at commodity weather forecaster World Weather Inc. There could be more rain next week, he added, while some areas of Canada have already seen snow.”
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wet-north-america-harvest-adds-pressure-for-farmers/
Climate change is more than temperatures.
Apneaman on Wed, 12th Oct 2016 11:15 pm
Yes, Climate Change Helped Matthew Produce a Massive Swath of Destruction Extending From Haiti to Southeastern Virginia
“Conditions in Context — Climate Change is Making Storms Like Matthew More Powerful and Devastating
Matthew was an extraordinarily powerful storm whose devastating toll will continue to be counted during the coming weeks and months along its broad and wide-ranging swath. But as we pick up the pieces, respond to the still ongoing disasters in North Carolina and Haiti, and begin to rebuild try return to semi-normalcy, we should also seriously consider the conditions that helped to spawn Matthew and to bring about its record October intensity. For Matthew emerged over near-record hot waters, formed a record hot world, and produced its damaging storm surges out of seas that are rising due to human-forced climate change.”
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/12/yes-climate-change-helped-matthew-produce-a-massive-swath-of-destruction-extending-from-haiti-to-southeastern-virginia/