It will continue to fall to 2:1 in developed economies by 2050, as fewer new workers are entering the workforce.
For some economies, this year is an especially critical time. The absolute number of people 15 to 64 in those countries will decrease for the first time since 1950.
Countries such as Italy, Germany and Japan have already started to see their labor supply shrinking. Japan could see its workforce shrink by as much as one-third by 2050.
China’s workforce likely began shrinking last year after doubling in size since 1970.
Global GDP grew by about 500% from 1964 to 2014, mainly because of large increases in productivity and rapid growth in the labor pool.
But as the workforce shrinks and productivity growth declines, global GDP will struggle.
Global GDP growth has averaged 3.5% for the past 50 years. In that time, contributions from growth in the labor supply and productivity were about equal.
Management consultant McKinsey thinks that average global GDP growth could decrease to 2.1% over the next 50 years. It anticipates labor growth will almost disappear as a source of economic growth (see the figure below).
And thinking that productivity growth will make up the difference is very optimistic, especially considering recent trends.
Is there an economic silver lining to this huge demographic shift? A small one.
Supporting more old people will cause a larger burden on the workforce, but it will be reduced by having to support fewer children. Additionally, there may be more opportunities for investment as savings build up.
Also, slowing labor and productivity growth may drive companies and governments to be more innovative. New policies, new approaches and new technology, such as improvements in robotics and artificial intelligence, may further improve economic growth and quality of life.
But these benefits are still small by comparison. It is simply a reality: Lower economic growth will become the new normal in coming years.
JuanP on Thu, 21st Jul 2016 10:11 pm
I am obviously not going to read this crap, but I can definitely understand that the same fools who believe that economic growth is good would also believe that having more kids is good, too. It is because of fucktards like these that I had a Vasectomy and no children. Humanity doesn’t stand a chance because most humans are irredeemably stupid and ignorant. People are going to continue breeding unsustainably until we have made the whole planet uninhabitable and we go extinct. Unfortunately, we will take most of the other species with us, too.
Boat on Thu, 21st Jul 2016 10:11 pm
This is all great news for an overpopulated world with shrinking land mass and water shortage. You want more money and security in a declining economy? Burn less energy, eat healthy and exercise. Become efficient.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 12:02 am
7.4 billion heading towards 10 billion soon to be followed by 0 billion.
onlooker on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 12:46 am
“7.4 billion heading towards 10 billion soon to be followed by 0 billion.” I nominate this as the quote of the day. So so true. This article is garbage.
Davy on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 5:58 am
Overpopulation and overconsumption is killing the world. Yes, murder, rape, and wanton destruction are the only words to describe it. We are supposed to be an intelligent species. In this respect we deserve to be called murders. This is not only nature and her creatures murdered it is ourselves. We are committing suicide little different than an alcoholic destroys others’ lives and their own lives.
Alcoholism has a degree of chemical dependence and so do humans. Our reptilian impulses drive us to procreate and consume more if available. We kill ourselves with consumption with obesity, harmful unneeded chemicals, and destructive social arrangements that go against reality. We could use a big dose of the reality that comes with humility in this respect. This article is neither. It is promoting of both destructive impulses. It represents that apathy in all of us that comes with the individual seeking his own ends and the tragedy of the commons. It represents the “prisoner’s dilemma” for some individuals who know what this destructive behavior is doing but they realize it is a problem beyond their scope. In this respect there are few that will make the sacrifice and without the many changing attitudes and lifestyles it is of little consequence to actually do what is right.
Some will change for spiritual reasons and their connection to nature. I am doing this but mind you I am not saying I am better than others. This is just a personal inward sense of value. I connect to nature and I find happiness in trying to hurt her less by being a modern human. Since I am western and not poor I am still doing much more damage than the majority of the world population. I am trying to practice relative sacrifice at the same time I try to build up a modern day monastery of succession. I am trying to build up something that may be of use if and when a collapse comes. I have no illusions I may find safety for more than a few months if a collapse goes the wrong way for me and my local. Since we have little clue how things will come apart I may buy more time than others by being organized for a collapse. In this respect I am still consuming more than I would like per the respect I should be giving to nature.
In another sense what is happening with humans is above humans. We want to think we are exceptional and in control but it is clear we are part of and following natural law of ecosystem succession found in the process of evolution and extinction. It is likely this is a universal law so wherever there is life in the universe other complex life may becoming self-aware and going into the same type of overshoot we are. It is possible they have been more intelligent and more efficient with their place in succession but since this is a universal law they too will meet their end. We “ALL” are just part of a greater process.
We humans are less exceptional and less civilized than we think we are. What we need is a big dose of humility which is coming soon to all of us. Places like the US that want to make America great again with the same attitudes and lifestyles that brought on this overshoot will experience a destructive change that will eventually break through the veneer of manifest destiny that is a fraud. The rest of the world is part of this also they just were not allowed to develop this insanity to the degree the Americans and Europeans have. China is realizing it again after destroying a once relatively sustainable society.
We will soon experience destructive change beyond what can be denied as a collapse process. Our hopes and dreams will be dashed. Some will until the very end be in denial but most will get the hint once they themselves are in adversity and experiencing death and privation. The pie is shrinking and the deck chairs rearranging and a steady flow of chairs are falling off the sinking ship.
This is a greater process but among ourselves we should stop the insane exceptionalism if for no other reason than to make for less pain and suffering and a death that comes later instead of sooner. Life is delicious why destroy it sooner than we could. This means less with less but still with dignity. There are simple pleasures that can be enjoyed that are not excessive. We can still live descent lives but without excess of the “excesses” that characterize modern life. We are modern humans so we can’t help excesses but we can avoid the excess “excesses”. Change now for yourself, for others, and most of all in respect for our mother who is Nature.
Kenz300 on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 7:42 am
Too many people that can not provide for themselves are having children that they can not provide for……. a recipe for disaster
Too many people demand too many resources……yet the worlds population grows by 80 million every year…..
How many charities are dealing with the same problems they were dealing with 10 or 20 years ago with no end in sight. Every problem is made worse by the worlds growing population.
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
Kenz300 on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 7:45 am
Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….
China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages, unemployment and poverty all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
bs on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 7:58 am
Best way to incease the gdp and improve the enviroment is to convert to islam or pagan fagism and learn about the benefits of 72 virgin goats and boys and abort those ugly females.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 11:13 am
So join the RNC?
http://nypost.com/2016/07/21/male-escorts-are-making-crazy-money-at-the-rnc/