Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on June 16, 2016
The Rise and Stall of the Commercial Solar Market
GTM Research recently released its report on the non-residential/commercial solar market, demonstrating relatively stagnant growth of the sector for the fourth straight year. According to the report, after a rise in installations from 2010 to 2012, commercial solar, consisting of projects where offtakers are neither homeowners nor utilities, has consistently hovered around a gigawatt (GW) of installed capacity in each year since. With a boom in residential installations and one million solar installations nationwide as of May 2016, what gives in the commercial space?
An Inefficient Standard
The commercial solar market faces inherent challenges given high transaction costs associated with relatively smaller project opportunities. Given high transaction costs, this market sector cannot afford to absorb inefficiencies associated with factors such as costly customer acquisition and long PPA negotiations, as well as other binary project-specific issues that may arise (these can be anything – you wouldn’t believe the stories we could tell…). As we have discussed before – and what GTM Research mentions in their report – the process for obtaining financing for these relatively smaller-scale deals is also largely inefficient. In our experience, many developers often auction projects to the highest bidder, a time-intensive process (that often leads to attrition, and then the stranded projects re-emerge later).
This is why repeat transactions are key to driving efficiency and scale.
These challenges lead to market fragmentation. GTM Research estimates that only 42 percent of installed capacity in the commercial market is developed by the top 10 players in the market (and that doesn’t include businesses with a model like Sol; we hovered around 30MW of commercial solar last year).
Given the obstacles associated with the commercial solar market, we have noticed a trend whereby developers and investors alike are prioritizing their efforts on larger-scale opportunities, especially after the extension of the investment tax credit (ITC) in December 2015. Although commercial-scale solar will remain a focus, Sol Systems is also expanding its utility-scale business, and have begun building out the team and product to do so.
The industry is also focused on new ways to meet commercial demand, including off-site solar projects. Off-site projects avoid many of the obstacles posed by building on-site, possessing more flexibility in project size and shorter contract terms. Additionally, off-site solar bypasses facility problems that tend to arise for on-site projects. Corporates are especially interested in off-site renewable projects, as 3.2GW of renewable energy was closed with corporate buyers in 2015, up from just over 1GW in 2014.
The commercial-scale solar market should naturally see a rise in installations due to the ITC, and the pathway to greater efficiencies that preserve returns will continue to be through ongoing relationships and repeat transactions.
33 Comments on "The Rise and Stall of the Commercial Solar Market"
yoshua on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 4:31 pm
If solar really worked then we would have gone solar long time ago.
ghung on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 4:43 pm
If yoshua had a brain then it would have stopped making idiotic comments long time ago.
yoshua on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 5:49 pm
Solar and ghung are subsidized projects… soon they’ll pull the plug on both.
ghung on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 6:13 pm
Still making idiotic comments, eh yosh? Funny thing is, nobody subsidises or pulls the plug on me. You’re the one who’ll have that problem soon enough. From now on I dub thee “got-it-back-asswards-yosh.” Anyway, I’m betting you are so helpless without BAU, you’ll be crying like a whelp when TSHTF; BEGGING for a handout. “Please Sir, can I have just a little more?”
It’s easy to spot those here with no real-world skills. What’s you mantra, yosh? “I can’t change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. I specialized in being an asshole.
yoshua on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 6:54 pm
Well… ghung… I can die like a coward when they pull the plug on me. I’ll be the useless anti-hero, despised by everyone.
makati1 on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 7:18 pm
America is the land of profit and greed.
‘IF’ solar was a profitable adventure it would be common, not the exception. After all, solar panels were first patented in 1894, 120 years ago.
They were installed on the White House in 1977 when Prez Carter told us this day was coming. That was 38 years ago.
But hydrocarbon energy is too ingrained now and will never be replaced by solar. Solar will be a temporary, “stand alone at your place”, system, but that too will go when no new systems are made to replace old. But, by then, there will be nothing to plug into them. Or, maybe none of us left to even care.
MSN Fanboy on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 7:44 pm
HEY KENZ, READ THE ARTICLE? Please tell me how solar and wind are growing every year ROLF
Deluded prick
Practicalmaina on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 8:20 pm
Makati, you know there is no such thing as a level playing field. We have scene the oldest and largest coal company pile up 10 billion in debt and file bankruptcy while being subsidized by the federal government. Nevada, one of our sunniest states, extremely vulnerable to lake mead essentially dissapearing, being hostile to home array owners is idiotic. But grid storage is coming, molten salt storage will be expanded significantly.
Harquebus on Thu, 16th Jun 2016 10:43 pm
Solar and wind energy collectors can not provide the “total” energy that was used to create them. They are an unsustainable energy sink.
Physics will trump economics. It is only a matter of time.
makati1 on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 12:40 am
Practical, do you read what you write? Salt storage is never going to be more than an idea that has a few takers, but not a major storage system. “There is no such thing as a level playing field.”
Do you think ‘they’ care if you have electric? Nope!
Do ‘they’ care if you die from freezing to death in the winter? Nope!
Do ‘they’ care if you starve to death? Nope!
And ‘They’ run the world. Their actual plan is to kill off most of the humans on this planet by as many ways as they can get away with.
Why do you think that war is now thew major growth industry in America? Fear of some 3rd world person in the ME attacking America? Nope! War is a very profitable business and a means to plunder the rest of the world’s resources as fast as possible. The US cannot live without that plunder.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 7:25 am
Makati, salt works very well at a solar plant for about 6 hours, from what I read about that Spanish company that is the world leader in development of it. War is a major growth industry, but alt power and energy efficiency are also, given fracked gas is slowing market growth. Harquebus that is why the dutch built windmills and sears and glass is an old tech. Because they were bored and had spare oil…wait
PracticalMaina on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 7:33 am
Tesla is already sold out for the next several years on grid sized batterys. There are ways of making a more intelligent home that can store energy without batterys during peak times, using thermal storage of domestic hot water and other things (ice for cooling for example) Commercial is a tough sell because a lot of space is leased, it will be a great market because the peak production time of solar ties into peak usage within the building, no delivery loss.
Kenz300 on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 7:54 am
Solar Added More New Capacity Than Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclear Combined
http://ecowatch.com/2016/06/09/solar-new-capacity/
Dubai Utility DEWA Said to Plan 1,000 MW of Solar Power Plants
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/06/dubai-utility-dewa-said-to-plan-1-000-mw-of-solar-power-plants.html
7 Charts Show How Renewables Broke Records Globally in 2015
http://ecowatch.com/2016/06/03/renewable-investment-broke-records/
makati1 on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 8:08 am
Practical, ain’t gonna happen. You believe all that bullshit? Do you know that at one time, nuclear electric was going to produce electric “too cheap to meter”? That was the ad. Never happened. A lot of “promises” have come and gone in my 70+ years. Ads are not reality. They are con jobs for suckers.
As for all the other “storage” ideas, none will be more than a small niche in the total. Not worth thinking about saving BAU in any form. The electric slaves are dying off. Adjust.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 8:31 am
Even if the grid is screwed, which I am not sure of anymore, the cost of making a doomstead have access to solar and cheap 12v lighting has plummeted. I have been reading hyper-miling forums from years ago, and they often get on the topic of how nice it would be to eliminate the loss of the alternator. They discuss led headlights, which were at the time several hundred dollars, lithium batterys, and solar. The price of all of these things has fallen very significantly since the last time oil was 4bucks, especially the led headlights, I just got some for about 10 bucks. Never doubt the drop in price of those semi-conductors, even if PV does require energy intensive materials. Boeing wants to make a solar powered aircraft to replace satellites. I told my father that I thought they should build solar powered aircraft almost 2 decades ago, he, an electrical engineer, said that panels would always be too heavy and not make the necessary power. I mean if the spruce goose can fly…
O and here is something interesting and disturbing. Apparently the FBI has no excuse…again
http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/06/gun_shop_owner_says_he_alerted.html#incart_most-commented_news_article
PracticalMaina on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 8:38 am
camera footage 2 grainy, isn’t it 2016??
Boat on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 10:46 am
mak,
“‘IF’ solar was a profitable adventure it would be common, not the exception. After all, solar panels were first patented in 1894, 120 years ago.”
Just like adult diapers were a mere strip of cloth oh have times changed. I bet yours fit nice and snug.
It takes an massive array but solar now beats out nuclear, coal and nat gas in areas. 8/kw was the winning bid on the last array I read about. Your 70 web sites a day left that out?
makati1 on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 7:43 pm
Boat, you should check your own. What ares does solar and wind beat out the others? I would bet that they still require backup power for the rainy days and the days the wind is not enough. You need to read things other than sales pitches for your dreams.
sunweb on Fri, 17th Jun 2016 9:07 pm
The whole picture needs to be included not just the installed devices. I am not a supporter of fossil fuels or nuclear. I am concerned about continuing business as usual and its devastation of the earth and humanities future.
Solar and wind energy collecting devices and their auxiliary equipment have an industrial history. They are an extension of the fossil fuel supply system and the global industrial infrastructure. It is important to understand the industrial infrastructure and the environmental results for the components of the solar energy collecting devices so we don’t designate them with false labels such as green, renewable or sustainable.
This is a challenge to ‘business as usual’. If we teach people that these solar devices are the future of energy without teaching the whole system, we mislead, misinform and create false hopes and beliefs. They are not made with magic wands.
These videos are primarily concerning solar energy collecting devices. These videos and charts are provided by the various industries themselves. I have posted both charts and videos for the solar cells, modules, aluminum from ore, aluminum from recycling, aluminum extrusion, inverters, batteries and copper.
Please note each piece of machinery you see in each of the videos has its own industrial interconnection and history.
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/solar-devices-industrial-infrastructure.html
This is about wind:
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2014/11/prove-this-wrong.html
Is this more elitist technology for the few. It seems to me all this promotion of solar and wind energy collecting devices are either envisioned as worldwide or it is simply more imperial colonizing of countries with resources and no power. Then think of the resources and energy required to meet global need for the global population.
Kenz300 on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 7:20 am
the transition to safer, cleaner and cheaper alternative energy sources continues………
Germany Achieves Milestone – Renewables Supply Nearly 100 Percent Energy for a Day
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/05/germany-achieves-milestone-renewables-supply-nearly-100-percent-energy-for-a-day.html
Portugal ran entirely on renewable energy for 4 consecutive days last week | Electrek
http://electrek.co/2016/05/16/portugal-ran-entirely-on-renewable-energy-for-4-consecutive-days-last-week/
Britain Gets No Power From Coal for First Time Ever, UK EV Drivers Soon to Sell Electricity Back to Grid
http://ecowatch.com/2016/05/11/britain-no-coal/
rockman on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 9:20 am
H – “They are an unsustainable energy sink. Physics will trump economics. It is only a matter of time.” There certainly are some overly optimistic expectation over the alts. But you need to be cautious painting with too broad a brush: the Texas experienced with wind power completely negates your comment.
But again I’ll remind why it is working so well here: very strong cooperation between govt and private enterprise. From what I’ve seen most mediocre effects resulted from each side trying to go it alone: it appears working separately is not very sustainable.
Boat on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 12:01 pm
Renewables have an approximate 20 year life span. With tech you can expect a much more efficient, longer life span and cheaper product with every cycle.
Davy on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 12:06 pm
“With tech you can expect a much more efficient, longer life span and cheaper product with every cycle.” So Boat you are implying diminishing returns does not apply to Tech? What do you mean by cheaper as in quality or price and relative to what? What cycle are you talking? I think you are talking out your ass.
Boat on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 2:01 pm
Davy,
If you want to play stupid, go for it.
Davy on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 2:23 pm
I am playing stupid because I am playing you stupid.
onlooker on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 2:31 pm
Except Boat tech relies heavily on energy for production, transportation and use. How will that work in a world fast drawing its limited usable energy supply
Boat on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 3:31 pm
onlooker,
Yes renewables rely on oil, coal, and nat gas but it’s only doomers that think supplies are limited. Only idiots think that. The natgas world market has been growing strong for a decade and prices are very low. Coal is cheap. Oil is the highest FF priced commodity going but still cheap enough to grow the market 1.5 mbpd in 2016.
GregT on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 7:45 pm
“Yes renewables rely on oil, coal, and nat gas but it’s only doomers that think supplies are limited. Only idiots think that.”
That’s right Boat, only smart people like yourself know that finite resources are not limited. You have achieved a level of intelligence that very few people enjoy.
Boat on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 10:13 pm
Renewables will keep us from the fear and worry of finite resources. At least those of with a little vision think so.
makati1 on Sat, 18th Jun 2016 10:39 pm
There are about six or eight intelligent people on this comment board. A few others are getting there because they have an open mind. Some are hopeless. The indoctrination is too deep.
I comment on the statements of the intelligent ones. Try to share my experience with the learners and ignore the rest.
The articles here are getting more varied as how much can you say about one subject’s price or value? The Chinese burp and oily price goes up or down. The Us teleprompter reader makes a statement and the oily price goes up or down. Nothing connected to reality. The variety of new topics all connect to oil so I usually read those and comment.
We live in a very exciting and dangerous time. Buckle up!
Harquebus on Sun, 19th Jun 2016 2:23 am
ERoEI analysis of renewables never factors “all” of the energy inputs.
They can still be economically viable whilst fossil fuels remain relatively cheap.
Without a functioning fossil fueled society, the renewable energy industry can not survive. There will be no functioning renewable fueled society because, renewable energy collectors do not collect enough energy to replicate themselves.
Davy on Sun, 19th Jun 2016 5:35 am
“There are about six or eight intelligent people on this comment board. A few others are getting there because they have an open mind. Some are hopeless. The indoctrination is too deep.” Makati Bill, come, where do you draw your authority to base your intelligence? Being an ex-Mormon high priestess. A jobsite manager probably because you could not hit a nail straight. A college dropout and or a low level army tank driver. I don’t see any indication of authority. Not to say anything in particular is wrong with these occupations just that for some reason you think you are special because of them.
Anti-Western, anti-American, anti-religious is all I see out of you. I see a closed mind with pathetic prejudices. You talk yourself up constantly as the smart and right one at the same time you bash and diminish others. I too bash and diminish other but those others are like you that think their shit don’t stink and they are a gift to mankind.
I know you don’t ignore what others say you just play that game so you can act like you are above it. I have caught you so many times cheating on that game. You are a pathetic old man who lives a deadly serious passion of hate, resentment and self-importance. You are the example of multiple pathologies and some board sheeples who call you a friend do so because they like indulging in those pathological activities but not necessarily living them like you do. You are the type of human that causes revulsion for me. You could have your opinions and apply them to comment feeds in a supportive and intelligent manner but you instead you chose narcissistic pathologies of the worst of what is human.
Kenz300 on Sun, 19th Jun 2016 9:01 am
5 Huge Climate Success Stories 10 Years After the Release of Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Truth’
http://ecowatch.com/2016/05/24/al-gore-inconvenient-truth/
Big Oil Could Have Cut CO2 Emissions In 1970s — But Did Nothing
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/big-oil-emissions_us_573c9d81e4b0aee7b8e8a046