It’s deja vu all over again, reading Alex Steffen’s The future of cars is slow in Medium. He is looking at the future of the self-driving car, or autonomous vehicle (AV) and makes some good points, concluding that The optimal speed for a self-driving car is slow.
This is a point discussed on TreeHugger years ago, long before AVs were much more than science fiction. At a time when people were talking about slow food and slow travel, I proposed slow cars very much like the post-war Isettas, (which kind of look like Google cars) suggesting that it would save fuel, that they would be smaller and lighter (lower impact standards), would reduce wear on bridges and infrastructure, and promote innovation in urban design. I wrote:
Isetta/ Slow cars can carry a family/via
Perhaps, like the slow food movement, we need a slow car movement, a radical lowering of the speed limit so that the private car can survive in an era of peak oil and global warming, simply by being smaller and slower. We don’t need hydrogen cars and new technology, we just need better, smaller designs, lower speed limits and no big SUVs on the road to squish them.
I did not anticipate the move to electric cars, and most importantly, the impact of the AV, which changes everything. As Alex notes, slow cars are a lot safer.
The danger drivers pose to pedestrians, other drivers and themselves is largely a function of how fast their vehicle is traveling. An eighteen wheeler nudging you gently at 1 foot per minute is an inconvenience; one hitting you at 45 miles per hour is probably a death sentence.
© Brian Tefft AAA
I wouldn’t have used the 18 wheeler as an example; research by Brian Tefft of the AAA foundation for traffic Safety shows the direct correlation between speed and death rate. On Pro-Publica they built a great interactive graph that shows the difference a few MPH can make. And the effect of speed is far more pronounced among older people.
© Alex also mentions reaction time and stopping distance, as TreeHugger did in More reasons why twenty is plenty (or 30 is enough for metric types).
He digs up some interesting research in favour of slow speeds:
It’s been demonstrated that lowering speed limits in urban areas can actually move more vehicles more smoothly through a city’s streets. Slow-moving cars can actually increase capacity.
This is due to reaction times; slow cars can follow the car in front more closely. His linked study notes that “The capacity of a given lane depends on the time-intervals between successive vehicles. The slower the leading car drives in front of a queue, the closer follows the next car.”
AVs can follow even more closely, moving even more cars. And since it is likely that they will not need stop signs or perhaps even traffic lights, they will get you there in less time even though they are slower.
Slow cars can mix it up with bikes and pedestrians/via
I have perhaps two points of disagreement with Alex; He suggests that driverless cars are best in compact cities noting “The travel-time difference between 20 and 45 m.p.h. doesn’t really matter much when you’re going a mile.” In fact, studies show that in the UK, 78 percent of trips of less than a mile are done by walking, and a third of trips less than five miles. So perhaps investment in making walking safer and easier would be wiser, and perhaps AVs are not really needed in a compact urban environment. (But slower cars sure would be nice for that)
Isetta/ Slow cars can go long distances/via
He also suggests that “driverless cars will disadvantage the suburbs, not save them.” I really disagree with that; if you can sit back in your AV with an iPad and a martini, who cares if it is slow. And the average commute in the San Fernando Valley now travels at 17 MPH; it won’t take any longer in a slow car.
But I totally concur with his conclusion:
Smart streets in future cities — it looks to me — will likely be built not for hurtling suburban SUVs but for happy people and the slow robots that take them where they want to go.
makati1 on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 7:19 pm
Another dreaming tree huger….lol.
onlooker on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 7:21 pm
The Green Scam has fooled many a fool
Davy on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 7:22 pm
How about just don’t drive. Let’s quit car advertisements on TV. We should tax cars. Car are the problem with modern man. There is no way to localize without effective controls on cars. If you want to be green don’t drive. If you want to do a green thing for the day don’t drive. Forget driving to the recycling drop off or to the Green consumer store. We can’t even begin to be green if a car is involved.
Plantagenet on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 7:43 pm
I once had a 66 VW microbus that was slow, especially going up hills.
I put a bed in the back and it was great for camping trips in the desert, or for climbing trips to Yosemite.
Cheers!
Revi on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 8:26 pm
I drive one of these “slow cars”, and it works fine. So far…
GregT on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 8:49 pm
“I put a bed in the back and it was great for camping trips in the desert, or for climbing trips to Yosemite.”
Bet you picked up lots of unsuspecting young lads in your day planter.
Cheers! 🙂
Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 9:42 pm
As long as they’re fast enough to ensure safe getaway from the zombies!
Sissyfuss on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 11:28 pm
My dad bought a used Isetta in the mid 70s and on the big hill just outside of town it would do 40 going up and 50 going down but at 50 it shook so bad you thought it was going to come apart at any moment.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 2nd Jun 2016 11:29 pm
Oops, meant going 50 in the mid 60s. Huh?
Anonymous on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 1:53 am
How about no-cars, period….
‘Slow’ cars, are still cars, and still carry all the same baggage and destruction around with them that their ‘fast’ counterparts do.
Stuifzand on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 5:34 am
Great article. I know that most peakers here can’t wait for the moment that the car will be abolished. But since the graying frequenters of this forum are probably massively “over the hill”, have it made in life, most will still drive a car, if not two. Abolishing cars that’s for others.
The pictures in the article give me fond memories, most have a licence plate starting with “M”, meaning Munich, the capital of Bavaria and headquarters of BMW (Bavarian Motor Works). I had such a a license plate for many years, when I was working in Germany.
Abolishing the car over night is not going to happen, society would collapse. The slow, self-driving car could be a nice transitional device during the time that society will move away from fossil fuels. The major feat of this vehicle will be that it will eliminate the need for car ownership. Instead if you need a car, order one from the pool, using your mobile device. This will vastly increase the occupation rate of the average car. Where every bus, train or aviation company will ensure that its vehicle will operate as many hours as possible, the average car owner lets his car rot away by the way side, unused most of the time. This pool approach doesn’t necessarily decrease the number of miles driven, but it will reduce the amount of “embedded energy” to build these cars.
You don’t need fossil fuel to drive a car over 700 km/day, average speed 77 kmh (reference: Solar Challenge 2013), in sunny territories like Australia, southern US, Spain, north-Africa, etc.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Nl2tBWuLk
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 6:24 am
“But since the graying frequenters of this forum are probably massively “over the hill”, have it made in life, most will still drive a car, if not two. Abolishing cars that’s for others.” Nope, sorry, the point is attitudes. I don’t expect cars to be abolished but we need to understand that the car culture is the primary reason for the evil of our modern way of life. This term evil is in regards to Nature and her ecosystem being destroyed in the mechanization of extinction by one species in overshoot (WE HUMANS). Cars allowed hyper consumerism and mobility that has allowed the rape and pillage of the world. So when I talk of the evils of the car it is without malice it is just negative evolution.
Cars will go away in the position they play in our society because for economic and resource reasons but this process will happen over time and mirroring the collapse of globalism. I will keep using a car until I can’t as well as my farm equipment. I am using BAU to leave BAU. I am investing in alternatives and getting educated on how to deal with a transport constrained world. A world going local by force of nature.
If I mention the evils of cars it is so people reflect on where we were and where we are now. This modern journey of our species is one of destruction and extreme exploitation. Our species is wrong at a macro level and cars are wrong as allowing us the ability to project our species into every nook and cranny of this small beautiful world with our destructiveness. Anyone who promotes cars now within that understanding is insane.
This is especially true of the hypocritical denialist greens promoting green versions of the cars culture. This insanity is on two levels. One level is the fallacy of EV’s and solar power ever scaling to run enough cars to make any kind of difference other than a niche. I am not saying EV’s are bad. I am thinking about a used Volt that I can power by my solar system. I am talking about the mentality greens have of this transition to alternatives that is just plain crazy. It shows a blind faith like we see with people lost in religion. It is a denial of the coming of existential pain, suffering, and loss that none of us want to deal with but what we are facing. The other level is EV’s and solar being clean and free of carbon. EV’s and solar have a nasty waste stream and only have existence because of a complex production and distribution networks of a fossil fuel driven globalized world.
If you are calling me over the hill thanks because it represent maturity of view, experience, and acceptance instead of the naiveté of youth. The young today are plain stupid to what is coming and in terrible denial. The old are not much better to be fair but it is the youth that are the future so looking at them we have no future. Our deterioration as a species can be seen most fully in our young who are a dead end. OH, yea I am partly to blame being the older generation if you want to finger point and blame and complain but the reality is this is just a process of a species heading into an evolutionary dead end. We want to deny we are part of evolution and extinction. We are not exceptional and we are flirting with extinction. Cars are one of the primary reasons for this.
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 6:36 am
Stuifzahnd,
That is great and maybe possible but the idea has a hurdle or two. The price has to be cheaper, the wait time short and the service extremely dependable.
Americans are productive. We can’t afford to waste much time sitting around waiting.
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 6:55 am
Davy,
Kids today are just fine. The bigger problem is your generation and those before you didn’t pay their bills to society. As retirees they will continue to rack up debt they can’t pay.
Don’t feed me waste stream problems with net green products. They are simply a better choice if the cost is equal. Drop the talking points. Being exceptional is a politician spin or a racist rant.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 7:00 am
I want to make something clear with my severe criticism of humans in regards to our nature and that nature within nature. My point is we need to know our place in nature. I am not putting a blame of damnation on our species because we cannot help having a large brain with reptilian emotions and desires. Nature made us what we are.
My point is there is an overwhelming cultural narrative of optimism bias. We have this mistaken optimism even within the understanding of so many dangerous existential threats. The real and present dangers of climate, economy, and social decay are real but surreal in the human collective psyche.
We think we are exceptional and will overcome these existential threats through innovation and technology from knowledge and development. This mistaken optimism makes these ever present dangers ahead of us not here and now. These dangers are most certainly here and now. This mistaken optimism and confidence will be our undoing.
We have this species defect called hubris. My severity of criticism is primarily so we practice more humility. We must live within our limitations. We must know what our limitations are. We cannot know our limitations if we are in denial of our basic nature and nature herself. If society can’t undo this cloak of denial you can as an individual.
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 7:50 am
Davy,
I don’t know what percentage of the world believe in climate change. Last I read it was over 60 percent. You doomers have predicted collapse very soon for over a decade. I think humans are in deep shyt and there is little we can do about it.
People I know, discuss the dangers and conjure up nasty scenarios. Some of them are preppers like you. I know nobody that has quit their jobs, pulled up roots and moved.
At the end of the day one acts to his/her conviction. For me I will not obsess over any fear or get into any blame game. That will change nothing.
Blame is for the weak.
oracle on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 7:58 am
The advent of cars and highways destroyed something of great value that most people today have no clue about — that of a more ambling form of travel that allows for experiencing small towns. Small towns today at most enter the consciousness of travelers only through highway exit signs. Deliberately choosing to stay off of highways and to take more time to travel on local roads, I’ve found many delightful places and people. Try it, you might like it! And you’ll be supporting local economies rather than the corporate chains that prey on the modern stressed out highway traveler.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 8:35 am
So what is your point boat? Spit it out. You talk out of both sides of the mouth complaining about blame but also blaming which is it?
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 8:41 am
I am not complaining Davy. Why do you.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 8:45 am
“Americans are productive. We can’t afford to waste much time sitting around waiting.”
America has become mainly a service sector economy Boat, reaping the benefits of cheap labor from other more productive nations. The amount of time spent ‘sitting around waiting’, is very apparent. All one needs to observe is the obesity epidemic.
Stuifzand on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 8:59 am
“That is great and maybe possible but the idea has a hurdle or two. The price has to be cheaper, the wait time short and the service extremely dependable. Americans are productive. We can’t afford to waste much time sitting around waiting.”
Americans (and Swedes like you) will stop being productive once cheap fossil fuel will run out.
I started my professional career in the beginning of the eighties programming a Burroughs mainframe computer to simulate wind turbines and used an Apple Lisa to sample rpm and torque data to build my thesis upon.
Today my 650 euro iPhone 6+ has more memory and computing power than that 1980 mainframe that costed many millions at the time.
Morale: technological progress is real, provided of course that you don’t give your country away to those who can’t sustain an advanced technological society, as ‘productive’ Sweden and the US are currently doing at breakneck speed. Currently rapid progress is achieved with battery and solar panel technology. And electro-motors simply are indestructible and function for decades without maintenance.
Davy is right: we should use BAU to overcome BAU, but the key “to go forward”, as natural-born progressive Americans love to say, is sustainable technology (you can begin to throw stones at me now). And slow self-driving cars could be useful to achieve that renewable energy nirvana.
Talking about Sweden, what a wonderful Eurovision song contest they organized this year, an event that now has global reach, with even China and the US able to watch live to these lily white artists, 210 million watched globally, where the Superbowl “only” has 150 million, US only.
Poor America can only attempt to make fun of it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTP17rWuUMo
Tiny Sweden was able to make fun of Eurovision much more professionally than Stephen Colbert could:
youtube lXcrj6cUiik
Europe is back, thanks Sweden! 😉
PracticalMaina on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:02 am
GregT, in traffic sometimes people watch funny cat videos, very productive.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:06 am
“For me I will not obsess over any fear or get into any blame game. That will change nothing.
Blame is for the weak.”
It isn’t called blame Boat. It is called taking personal responsibility for one’s own actions. Ignorance and inaction will change nothing, and will only lead to a more dire outcome down the road.
onlooker on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:10 am
Yes Boat it is about changing your ways to better prepare for the future while setting an example for others. All this may delay the worst of what is to come.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:29 am
Stuifzand, I hope the best for renewables. If we can we need to do everything possible to build as much as we can along with changed attitudes and lifestyles.
I personally feel this is an end game so we must have the humility to say this ship is sinking and a mass die off is in the offing. There is no way to know how this process will unfold in scale of timing, degree, and duration but we are now locked into a collapse process.
Let’s live life fully and chose to advance spiritually. Some of the most profound spiritual periods are during the most troubled of times. Emulate nature in every way and she will fight for you. You cannot lose by being yourself and your deepest self is a reflection of nature.
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:33 am
No Greg, there is dire outcome and that is it.
There is action going on all over the world. The ignorance is yours for not recognizing it.
Besides isn’t it impossible to overcome the jews and international banking cartel? The blame for every thing.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:43 am
I am one of those who have taken action Boat. I have vastly reduced my carbon footprint, I have opted out of the debt slavery system, and I am learning to become as self sufficient as possible. It is you who is ignorant Boat, as well as being a complete moron.
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:58 am
Stuifzand,
Americans (and Swedes like you) will stop being productive once cheap fossil fuel will run out.
First of all there is a lot of oil left. 2nd, nat gas is plentiful and will continue to eat into oils market. In fact in the US nat gas is pushing out coal. International nat gas prices are dramatically lower.
I am a fan of tech and in spite of low FF prices wind is taking hold around the world. Solar should take off soon.
1/2 breed Swede. Daddy jumped the fence.
Boat on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 9:58 am
Stuifzand,
Americans (and Swedes like you) will stop being productive once cheap fossil fuel will run out.
First of all there is a lot of oil left. 2nd, nat gas is plentiful and will continue to eat into oils market. In fact in the US nat gas is pushing out coal. International nat gas prices are dramatically lower.
I am a fan of tech and in spite of low FF prices wind is taking hold around the world. Solar should take off soon.
1/2 breed Swede. Daddy jumped the fence.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 10:11 am
“Americans (and Swedes like you) will stop being productive once cheap fossil fuel will run out.”
Americans, and people throughout the world, will be dying en masse once cheap fossil fuels run out. There are far more known reserves of carbon based energy, than we can afford to burn, if we have any hope of stopping a catastrophic runaway greenhouse event.
If you are a fan of tech Boat, then put your money where your mouth is. Stop relying on fossil fuels for everything in your life, and then report back to us all as to how your life has ‘taken off’.
joe on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 10:22 am
Cars are not going anywhere. Its taken governments 40 years to get this far with smoking, guess what, i can still buy cigarettes.
Many people are missing the fundamental ethics of moderl liberal governments, which is choice counts, not effects.
They live by one rule, freedom of coice makes you rich. Thats it. The call it, liberalism which means that even if tbey tell you the dangers and you still want to do somthing stupid, they will let you, because you are free.
So to make it clear, SUVs will be around as long as they’re sold. Oil will be around as long as there is a buyer, and yes they know GW will destroy the earth but they dont care.
Go tell a working mom that she will have to make 5 shopping trips in a car that cant take her kids instead of in one big car once a week. Granted, drones and tech and AVs will help, some people will drive smaller cars, but when AVs become common enough and their problems become obvious then people will still do some trips themselves, and they wont want to do it in little cars as long as they can choose.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 10:33 am
“Go tell a working mom that she will have to make 5 shopping trips in a car that cant take her kids instead of in one big car once a week.”
Unless that working mom has more than 4 kids joe, there is no need for an SUV. My Honda Fit has seatbelts for five, with plenty of room left over for more than enough groceries to last a week.
Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 10:55 am
Boat it don’t matter how much fossil fuels are left, since the the beginning of the end of civilization (and the species IMO) has started. This should be most apparent for those who live in ground zero towns, like Houston. Well apparent to non retards.
Boat, exactly what I told you, many times, was going to happen to cancer town N state (coincidence of geography, but fitting.
Even the BIG BAD, FUCK YEAH, US military is powerless in the face of the new abnormal AGW consequences and so is your precious economy and cheap gas.
Five soldiers dead after truck overturns near Fort Hood, four still missing
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/06/02/three-soldiers-dead-after-truck-overturns-near-fort-hood-six-still-missing/
Stuifzand on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 11:36 am
“Boat it don’t matter how much fossil fuels are left, since the the beginning of the end of civilization (and the species IMO) has started. This should be most apparent for those who live in ground zero towns, like Houston.”
Relax ap, more than enough Lebensraum on this planet, particularly in case of runaway climate change.
Quick planetary audit:
Africa 30m km2 1000m
Russia 20m km2 empty
Antarctica 14m km2 empty
Canada 10m km2 empty
USA 10m km2 330m
China 10m km2 1300m
Australia 8m km2 empty
EU 4m km2 500m
Greenland 3m km2 empty
India 3m km2 1500m
Argentina 3m km2 empty
If all the ice in the world would melt, Canada, Siberia and Antarctica are going to be nice places, climatewise that is. Greenland can be given to India, that likely is going to be the largest victim of climate change.
So far, climate change is working out fine for Europe: low heating fuel bills, lots of rainwater.
A pity though that favorite Dutch national past-time “Elfstedentocht” (Eleven towns tour) will be a thing of the past:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENSqWlF9OnI
The last one happened in 1997 and few expect ever to experience one again.
tagio on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 12:45 pm
Slow cars, huh? Well I suppose this is a revelation or possibly revolutionary thought well worth sharing along our society’s path to final death or enlightment, whichever comes first, but some of us are old enough to know that Ivan Illich had this all figured out back during the energy crisis in the early 1970s, when he published his famous (but of course ignored, because why change when there’s lots of $$$$$ to be made and it all feels sooooo good?) essay, “Energy and Equity.”
There, after analyzing the increasing disutilty of travel by car, showing how increased car usage reduced effective travel speeds to little better than walking or bicycle speeds but with huge resource, health and other costs, and the destructive effect of car travel on human equality, he made the case that highest and best form of human travel balancing speed with community, human scale and human needs was the bicycle, with trucks and trains devoted to transport.
Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 1:37 pm
Stuifzand, that’s a very soothing story. The moon is empty too.
Yeah all looks fine in Europe and Russia
From Paris to Bavaria, Heavy Rains Cause Deadly Floods
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/03/world/europe/france-germany-floods-rain.html
Europe floods: Seine could peak at 6.5 metres as Louvre closes doors
At least 12 people killed across northern Europe in week of storms that have flooded villages and wrecked roads
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/02/deaths-as-flash-floods-hit-france-germany-and-austria
The Rains of Climate Change, Voracious Locust Swarms Wreck Crops in Russia
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/02/the-rains-of-climate-change-voracious-locust-swarms-wreck-crops-in-russia/
Stuifzand on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 1:55 pm
“Yeah all looks fine in Europe and Russia”
Needed to empty my wheelbarrow from 20 cm water assembled of the last few days. And I have 30 plant containers of 90 cm wide with strawberries that all needed to be reverted to get rid of many liters of water.
But the garden is humming with life, potatoes, beans, carrots, beets, onions, cabbage, leek, tomatoes, the lot. So I can leave for a long vacation with peace of mind; no need to worry about my plants drying out.
After the season I will install an already bought greenhouse of 4 m * 2.5 m to extend the growing season and have place for exotics like citron and herbs.
When additionally have a solar heating system I am done with prepping. Large freezer and generator I already have.
Next task will be to persuade my neighbors to pick up gardening as well, because it doesn’t make sense to have a lot of food if the rest of the street doesn’t in case of bad times. It could even shorten your life expectancy rather than prolong it.
Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 2:06 pm
Tell yourself it will always be. Oh and keep emptying that standing water because Zika, dengue and a bunch of other mosquito borne diseases are heading north thanks to the new abnormal climate. Florida already knows all about dengue.
Dengue fever presence in Florida at a ‘pretty serious level’
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/12/dengue-fever-presenceinfloridaataprettyseriouslevel.html
onlooker on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 2:25 pm
Yes the US is already immersed in third world standards and welcoming more in a diversity of ways. The planet itself pretty much is now be debased into third world standards.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Jun 2016 2:27 pm
“If all the ice in the world would melt, Canada, Siberia and Antarctica are going to be nice places, climatewise that is.”
Um, OK. Whatever you say…….
BTW, we get most of our water in Canada from glaciers. AKA ice.
http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/12/amaps.png.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.png