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Page added on May 24, 2016
Oil discoveries sink to lowest since 1952
Oil discoveries in 2015 fell to their lowest since 1952 as energy companies slashed exploration budgets in the wake of the oil price fall, creating a gap for meeting future demand, analysts at Morgan Stanley said on Monday.
The oil and gas industry discovered 2.8 billion barrels of oil outside the United States last year, the equivalent of one month of global consumption, the U.S. bank said, quoting data from consultancy Rystad Energy.
Including the United States, where the rapid expansion of the onshore shale industry unlocked major resources over the past decade, global discoveries rose to 12.1 billion figure – but still the lowest since 1952, when the oil industry was one-seventh of its current size.
Oil discoveries are vital to replace resources, meet still-growing demand and offset the depletion of existing fields.
The sharp drop in oil prices over the past two years has led companies including Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) to sharply reduce budgets, particularly for exploration, where spending fell in 2015 to around 95 billion from $168 billion two years earlier, according to Morgan Stanley.
Despite a big increase in exploration spending since the start of the decade, when oil demand rapidly rose, there have been few major hydrocarbon discoveries, such as Statoil’s (STL.OL) Johan Sverdrup field off Norway’s coast or Eni’s (ENI.MI) giant Zohr gas field off Egypt.
BP last week announced the surprise departure of its exploration boss, and a shift in its oil search strategy that is focusing mainly on expanding existing fields rather than venturing expensively into the unknown.
SHORTAGE
A big increase in new oil fields in recent years and the ramp up of Iran’s production following the lifting of international sanctions mean that in the short term, the impact of the low exploration record will be limited.
But even under the most modest demand forecasts, driven by a drive to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, where consumption will decline to around 86 million barrels per day in 2030, only around two thirds of the demand can be met by currently producing fields or resources under development, Morgan Stanley said.
“Building this capacity over the next 25 years will require ongoing investment. Our strong suspicion is that this will be higher than what companies are currently spending, even relative to the 2 Degrees scenario under which demand is falling.”
The outlook for exploration remains challenged, the bank said.
“The return on exploration dollars spent has clearly deteriorated in recent years. On top of this, oil companies increasingly need to consider scenarios for oil demand in which there may not be much need for further exploration.”
23 Comments on "Oil discoveries sink to lowest since 1952"
shortonoil on Tue, 24th May 2016 7:26 am
“The return on exploration dollars spent has clearly deteriorated in recent years. On top of this, oil companies increasingly need to consider scenarios for oil demand in which there may not be much need for further exploration.”
It’s called DEPLETION; a 2000 year old concept. It has always moved faster than any technological advancement to counter it. We hate to break it to Reuters, but there is also this thing called GRAVITY.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Boat on Tue, 24th May 2016 9:21 am
short,
I suppose depletion caused the Iraq war, Libya war, Syria war, Yemen war, Nigeria war, Iran sanctions and the greatest known glut since the dawn of man. Not to mention 4,000 DUCTs and over 1,000 drilling rigs ready to pounce when the price is right.
Have you read about how Brazil, Venezuela and Mexico are talking to those capitalist companies about a little help with their oil? I suppose depletion caused their mismanagement.
This is why the Saudi and the rest pump their ass off as much as they
can. They know about all that oil potential is out there and no matter the price they’re gonna sell theirs.
Dustin Hoffman on Tue, 24th May 2016 9:33 am
The Dick Cheney “Energy Task Force” findings caused the Iraq war, along with Sadly Insane, mean Saddam Hussein, refusal to accept the petrodollar as payment. See Boat, simple, even you can understand.
twocats on Tue, 24th May 2016 10:12 am
Boat are you claiming that discoveries are low because of war? iraq production is high. Syria and yemen are minor producers. Your comment really doesn’t make any sense. As far as brazil and venezuela etc i havent read a single article that discoveries are suffering due to mismanagement, though i will grant you that might be true. Can you please post an article to back your claims?
rockman on Tue, 24th May 2016 10:13 am
“I suppose depletion caused the Iraq war, Libya war, Syria war, Yemen war, Nigeria war, Iran sanctions and the greatest known glut since the dawn of man.” Actually yes…both directly and indirectly.
But a concept difficult for many too understand. Or accept. The POD lives and grows everyday like a cancer.
shortonoil on Tue, 24th May 2016 10:48 am
“I suppose depletion caused the Iraq war, Libya war, Syria war, Yemen war, Nigeria war, Iran sanctions and the greatest known glut since the dawn of man.”
No Boat, those wars were about maintaining US hegemony in the Middle East. The world’s largest remaining reserve of high quality crude. You see – Western industrial society is an oil based civilization. Whomever controls the oil controls the world. When the US won WWII, it sort of went to its head, and it has been playing a stupid bunch of power games since then. It believed a bunch of idiots who kept saying that oil was an inexhaustible resource, and the US (as then top dog) should control it. After about $50 trillion, it appears that they were wrong. If they had known as much about depletion as the Romans did, they could have saved a lot of money and lives. Now — see where really stupid ideas can take you?
rockman on Tue, 24th May 2016 11:15 am
“Including the United States, where the rapid expansion of the onshore shale industry unlocked major resources over the past decade, global discoveries rose to 12.1 billion figure…” I doubt that 12.1 billion bbl stat is still valid. IOW I don’t think the US added 77% of the global increased due to our shale plays as those reserves are measured TODAY. The number might have been that high when originally developed using $90+/bbl. But those “proved” (yet undeveloped) reserve numbers have to be recalculated using current pricing. If they aren’t commercial to develop now they aren’t even “reserves” any more but are now “resources”.
Once again the problem with articles like this: they don’t explain/document the numbers they toss out.
marmico on Tue, 24th May 2016 11:36 am
they don’t explain/document the numbers they toss out.
Fuck you. I’m still waiting for the 250 word POD abstract with supporting citations.
Apneaman on Tue, 24th May 2016 12:31 pm
“When the US won WWII”?
I remember the good ole days when history books about the war, including ones written by Americans, described how the “allies” won WWII, but that started to get rewritten lickety split. As soon as WWII ended the western allies started downplaying and ignoring the USSR’s major contribution (they broke the Germans back) and then after Reagan was elected and the neo conservatives gained power there has been another ongoing rewrite, ignoring the western allies. Propaganda and mythology are what empires do, at great expense on a grand scale, so no one should be surprised. Empires are full of swagger, but it’s rooted in deep insecurities. I recall learning about D-Day way back in the day – 5 beaches at the landing at Normandy. The US had three, the British one, and the little Canadians had one – Juno beach. They teach that in merican history class?
American bullshit goes back to their “war of independence” which when viewed from the world stage was really a proxy war between Britain and France. Without tons of money, supplies, troops provided by the French and the French navy there would have been no independence or at least not then (not that those who fought or did their part don’t deserve their credit). Kinda like that proxy war known as the Vietnam war(the Vietnamese call it the American war).
The 5 Most Widely Believed WWII Facts (That Are Bullshit)
“There are two radically different histories of WW II, the one that was actually fought, and the one where the US kicked everyone’s assess. Guess which one Cold War-era classrooms were allowed to teach? Here’s a hint: It’s the same one Hollywood chose to film.
World War II wasn’t just a clever name. It was a global conflict that included epic acts of heroism by non-Americans like the storming of Madagascar, the Battle of Westerplatte, the Battle of Moscow, the Battle of Kursk, the epically badass Kokoda Track, the pilots of the Polish Underground State, the details of El Alamein or the HMS Bulldog. Of course, Americans never hear about any of those unless, as in the case of the classic submarine film U 571, the characters are just straight up switched to Americans. To quote George S. Patton: “Americans love a winner,” which you know because you saw Patton, the film that portrayed Field Marshal Bernard “Rommel-killer” Montgomery like a buffoon simply because he was British”
“However, there is one Zangief-sized elephant in the room that America loved to leave out of conversation until the end of the Cold War: the Soviet Union. The “Great Patriotic War” as they called it was the single largest military operation in history, and home to perhaps the biggest turning-point of the war: the Battle of Stalingrad.
Understand, the Russia versus Germany part of the war wasn’t just a little more important than the part the USA was involved in. It was “four times the scale” of the whole Western front, larger than all other phases of the war put together. The Soviet military suffered eight million soldiers dead, more than 20 freaking times the number of U.S. casualties.”
http://www.cracked.com/article_18389_the-5-most-widely-believed-wwii-facts-that-are-bullshit.html
Here is a funny and entertaining HBO special by American actor and comedian Robert Wuhl on historical bullshit – mostly American bullshit.
Assume the Position 101 + 201
http://www.veoh.com/watch/v16706342cB97DkDJ
5 Myths About the Revolutionary War Everyone Believes
“The Reality
In the centuries since the Revolutionary War, French contributions have been criminally downplayed. Somewhere between the real Yorktown and Mel Gibson’s rather less accurate version, The Patriot, the monumental French war effort during the birth of America got forgotten, buried in the sand, and pissed on.
The truth is, the 13 colonies would never have earned their freedom without French intervention — the whole battle for American independence was essentially a proxy war between Britain and France. To the French, America was nothing but another theater in their grand blood feud against Britain. They were all about making the Englishmen eat every last available dick, and since they noticed they could use the colonists’ struggle for independence as a handy feeding pen, that’s exactly what they did.”
http://www.cracked.com/article_20306_5-myths-about-revolutionary-war-everyone-believes.html
That wide spread American hate of the French has it’s roots in the truth of the American revolutionary war.
For the myth to live, the truth must die.
Apparently most of the humans need their stories.
The story telling ape.
rockman on Tue, 24th May 2016 12:44 pm
“I’m still waiting for the 250 word POD abstract with supporting citations.” Sorry for the delay. Turns out it didn’t take 250 words…only took 5 words.
POD abstract: It is f*cking common sense.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
rockman on Tue, 24th May 2016 12:46 pm
Which, as I failed to point out, isn’t as common as we would hope.
JuanP on Tue, 24th May 2016 12:49 pm
Marmico, There is no amount of words that could possibly ever be enough to make YOU understand this issue. Unfortunately, we can’t fix stupid and that is what you are. The POD idea is very simple: as we use the best resources available first, those resources left are of a lower quality. The lower quality resources lead to a lower quality of life for all of us. This phenomenon manifests itself in a variety of ways everywhere around us. If you were a smart or perceptive person we wouldn’t need to explain this to you over and over again.
The fact that you don’t get this pretty obvious phenomenon even after it has been explained to you multiple times is proof of your incredible stupidity.
Davy on Tue, 24th May 2016 12:53 pm
There never would have been a WWII if Stalin would not have had his head up his ass and been such a shitty military leader. He gutted his military for political reasons and he massively misjudged Hitler. His Army was drunk on the job and not ready to fight. Stalin could have stopped the Germans at the get go. Instead we had 60 MIL dead a few years later. Yea the history re-writing is in full swing everywhere including our little board. Why even fucking talk about WWII it is such a distant memory and has nothing to do with what is right in front of us and that is an existential war on humans by Nature because, well, we deserve it. Oh, I know we can use WWII as a metric to say sometime during the coming collapse “look here we just passed the cumulative WWII death rate this year”.
PracticalMaina on Tue, 24th May 2016 12:56 pm
Davy, that was probably right around the time military leadership started staying up at night dreaming about conquering an oil producing region to fuel the hungry war machine.
Davy on Tue, 24th May 2016 1:06 pm
PM, Americans had their head up their ass too look what happened at Pearl Harbor. Although many believe that was a conspiracy to enter the war but I doubt it. It was pure stupidity on the Americans part and a brilliant attack by the Japanese.
PracticalMaina on Tue, 24th May 2016 1:15 pm
Davy, I often wonder, I was just about to rebuttal Apneaman by pointing out that we kept the Japanese busy threw ought the war, the Soviets and Japan had signed a non aggression agreement, but had within recent years been fighting bloody battles over territory. I doubt the Japanese would have honored that if they had not been busy.
It was a very successful attack, but they were really essentially attacking an outpost of the most industrial capable country in the world and the only power not consumed in the war, in fact a country that was having an industrial boom from selling to both sides. There were a lot of pro Nazi individuals in the US and it took an extreme situation to cause our entry.
PracticalMaina on Tue, 24th May 2016 1:21 pm
You would have thought that another Japanese fleet or Uboats would have attacked Naval outpost elsewhere at the same time, if they wanted to ultimately dominate the Pacific theater. I guess both of the Axis powers were too busy trying to carry out genocide, no one seems to talk about the Nanjing massacre much, or what we did to Dresden. These things should be taught more to teach the horror of war, and how insulated the ones who decide to start it are.
Anonymous on Tue, 24th May 2016 2:51 pm
Well, according the resident militant exceptionalist, we can pin WWII…. on Putin, err Russia too! That sure is handy. Seems even WW2 was Putin… Russias doing, it was all Putins…errr Russia’s fault. According to the exceptionalist history book(Large-Font Double spaced with full page colored pictures), if that bastard Putin, err Stalin, hadn’t been such an evil mustache-twirling inept bastard, we could have avoided that whole ww2 thang.
Who knew?
But not to fear, the uS quickly, well, sorta quickly, dispatched George C Scott, Tom Hanks, and Ben Affleck to save the world from Putin’s military incompetence. Even ‘allowing’ President Putin and his incompetent troops, all million plus of them, to ‘take’ Berlin as a gesture of merikan good-will and generosity.
Physical destruction inside Russia, WWII
Outright Destroyed or Severely Damaged.
1,710 cities and towns…
70,000 villages and hamlets…
2,508 church buildings…
31,850 industrial factories…
40,000 miles of railroad…
4,100 railroad stations…
40,000 hospitals…
84,000 schools…
43,000 public libraries…
Countless homes, apartments, markets, stores…..
96,500 tanks…
106,400 aircraft…
7 million horses and 17 million sheep and goats were also slaughtered or driven off.
And the americants still harp on about a couple thousand sacrificial sun-tanning lambs, err sailors,and a handful of obsolete rust-bucket battleships they lost as an excuse to get the uS ‘into’ WW2. Had to roll back those slant-eyes with real force, since sanctions and an economic blockade weren’t doing the job…
I think it would have been great to see amerikca lose 1700 towns and cities, 70k villages and be forced to relocate all its industry 100s of miles, just to survive. And you know what? IF merica keeps goading and encircling Russia with troops and missile bases, all while screaming ‘Russian aggression’ at the top of their lungs, amerika just might their christo-jew end-times wish after all.
Davy on Tue, 24th May 2016 3:09 pm
Anonymous, I sure kicked you in the teeth good. Love it!
Anonymous on Tue, 24th May 2016 3:27 pm
ROLF, sure. Keep telling yourself that. Now go back to your coloring book. Here’s some crayons for you. Don’t waste them now.
Davy on Tue, 24th May 2016 3:38 pm
Anonymous, you are fun. I am glad you finally opened up. Now if you could just get a brain and learn how to talk and spell properly. The secret language you use is childish. You have all that testosterone but no brain.
Sissyfuss on Tue, 24th May 2016 4:24 pm
Nice to see smarmy Marmi dropped in to regale us with his scatological exclamations and obfuscating obscenities per usual. Forgive him, Short for he knows not who he is.
frankthetank on Thu, 26th May 2016 11:32 am
You guys are all very funny. I love you.