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Page added on May 22, 2016
Energy future in U.S. bright
Group predicts country to become net exporter for 1st time since ’50s
It’s just a projection, but the annual energy outlook for the United States looks bullish, with most sectors growing in the coming years and the nation well on its way to moving from being a net energy importer to a net exporter.
“That would be a big feather in the nation’s cap, definitely,” said Ed Hirs, energy economist at the University of Houston, regarding the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s annual energy outlook that came out earlier this week.
The EIA looked at the nation’s energy landscape through 2040 and made projections based on whether the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan is implemented or not.
The Clean Power Plan, also known as the CPP, which mandates cutting the nation’s carbon emissions by 32 percent from 2005 levels, has been challenged in federal court.
The EIA sees annual electricity-related carbon dioxide dropping between 1,550 and 1,560 million metric tons if the plan is adopted. But even if it is not, the agency projects emissions well below levels seen in 2005.
Perhaps the most dramatic finding is the anticipation of energy production outstripping consumption between 2025 and 2030, making the United States. a net energy exporter for the first time since the 1950s.
“In the ’50s we were just importing a whole lot less,” said EIA spokesman Jonathan Cogan, “We didn’t need to import much petroleum, which is the biggest source of our imports in energy.”
Those days are coming back as the nation’s oil and natural gas production levels have increased in recent years, combined with slowly growing or — in some cases — falling demand.
The primary reason for the shift from net importer to net exporter “is we know how to produce natural gas in a very inexpensive way,” Hirs said. “And we’re going to be exporting the natural gas out of the U.S. and potentially, we’ll be exporting electricity.”
The EIA report looked at a spectrum of energy sources:
Renewables
EIA projects a significant jump in solar and wind, thanks in large part to the extension late last year of federal tax credits for the renewable industry.
Solar grows nearly 12-fold between 2015 and 2040 if the Clean Power Plan goes through. Even without the CPP, anticipated reductions in the cost of solar see the sector grow by ninefold.
With the CPP, wind generation grows nearly 150 percent by 2040. Without the CPP, it still grows 110 percent, but EIA projects a slowdown after 2022 when tax credits taper off.
Natural gas
“Natural gas is the big winner” in the EIA projection, Hirs said.
The shale revolution continues, with production up 50 percent between 2015 and 2040 as natural gas becomes a bigger part of the nation’s energy mix.
Interestingly, even though natural gas is a fossil fuel, it is projected to grow even more should the CPP get implemented than if it doesn’t.
By 2040, EIA estimates natural gas will account for 38 percent of the country’s net electricity generation under the CPP, but that number declines to 34 percent without the CPP.
Why? Because under the CPP, a greater percentage of coal generation is replaced by natural gas-fired power plants, which burn cleaner than coal.
The EIA report also projects natural gas prices rising from its current price of just over $2 per million BTUs to above $4.40 by 2020, a steady rise of about 11 percent per year.
That likely means higher heating bills, but the EIA also anticipates almost 50 percent growth in net exports of liquefied natural gas by 2021.
If that holds true, it’s good news for San Diego-based Sempra Energy, which is making a multibillion dollar investment in LNG facilities in the Gulf Coast and is planning to upgrade its plant near Ensenada, Mexico, to export LNG.
“It continues to support our business model,” said Octavio Simões, Sempra’s president of LNG and midstream operations. “At the same time, it puts the U.S. in a very advantageous geopolitical position when it comes to becoming a major supplier of energy for the world and not … dependent on parts of the globe that may be complicated and problematic.”
Oil
After sinking below $27 a barrel in February, crude oil prices have climbed back to almost $50, but prices still remain about half of what they were in June 2014.
The EIA report anticipates prices to gradually come back to $77 a barrel around 2020.
Low global prices keep U.S. production projections below 9.5 million barrels per day through 2025, but then it is expected to grow to 11.3 million barrels by 2040.
Petroleum use is projected to grow by 4 percent by 2040, but transportation use will go down 10 percent because of greater fuel efficiency, especially among light-duty vehicles, that is, cars weighing 8,500 pounds or less.
Nuclear
Total capacity is virtually unchanged from 2015 levels, with any additions to the sector offset by retirements of older facilities by 2020.
Higher construction costs prevent nuclear expansion from being competitive even with the Clean Power Plan, the EIA report said.
“The real problem is the dirtiness of the fission process and what to do with the waste,” said Hirs, who is also the managing director of Hillhouse Resources, an oil and gas company based in Houston.
Coal
The question is not whether coal will decline as part of the U.S. energy mix, but how much it will fall off.
With the CPP in place, coal drops 32 percent in net electricity generation between 2015 and 2040. Without the CPP, coal’s numbers are flat as fewer coal-fired units are retired. But coal’s share of total generation still declines and virtually no new capacity is added.
The EIA emphasized that the outlook is not a prediction of what will happen, citing the complexity of energy markets, but Hirs said the agency’s number looked solid.
“None of us are going to make any plans based on this,” Hirs said, but “they’ve got some sharp people there.”
34 Comments on "Energy future in U.S. bright"
makati1 on Sun, 22nd May 2016 7:21 am
“It’s just a projection, but the annual energy outlook for the United States looks bullish, with most sectors growing in the coming years and the nation well on its way to moving from being a net energy importer to a net exporter.
“That would be a big feather in the nation’s cap, definitely,” said Ed Hirs, energy economist at the University of Houston, regarding the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s annual energy outlook that came out earlier this week.”
ROFLMAO! More bullshit from the Big hat – no cattle Texan economists and the Imperial Ministry of Propaganda, the EIA.
Bob Owens on Sun, 22nd May 2016 9:44 am
The legacy wells in our world produce the bulk of our energy and are declining 4-6% a year. Project this forward 20 years and what will you have? Hint: It won’t be the all-the-oil-you-want world of this article.
penury on Sun, 22nd May 2016 11:18 am
It would be a wonderful thing for me if for just one day I could accept the religious devotion of these people and revel in the glory of the marvelous universe we are creating her on earth.
shortonoil on Sun, 22nd May 2016 11:30 am
“and the nation well on its way to moving from being a net energy importer to a net exporter.”
That explains why the US is importing more foreign crude today than it was 5 years ago. Obviously, it is moving toward energy independence in a major way —
Who writes this stuff? It must be some hybrid variety of Alfred E. Neuman, and Santa Clause.
onlooker on Sun, 22nd May 2016 11:43 am
What a cornucopian bunch of bull.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sun, 22nd May 2016 11:48 am
this is a good article but be warned there are a couple charts so some of the retards might not be able to grasp the data
http://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.ca/2016/05/this-is-peak-oil.html
marmico on Sun, 22nd May 2016 12:31 pm
That explains why the US is importing more foreign crude today than it was 5 years ago.
You are a fuctard.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=M
rockman on Sun, 22nd May 2016 12:49 pm
As much as it bothers me I haver to back mark up. In 2015 US imported the lowest percentage of our oil consumption since 1970. And we’re still (by a tiny amount) a NG importer. Perhaps shorty was thinking about a different metric.
Of course that’s today. Those folks can fantasize about alts etc all they want but until it happens it’s not real.
Dustin Hoffman on Sun, 22nd May 2016 4:40 pm
Depends on how measures crude, does it not? You like to use %, short might use barrels (volume) or BTUs, which the BW Hill group likes to stress.
Bahamas Ed on Sun, 22nd May 2016 7:35 pm
the second week of this month was down 900,000bpd from the same week 5 years ago.
But 5 years ago we where short of crude in the US, now we have so much we can’t use it all so I would expect even less.
Boat on Sun, 22nd May 2016 8:53 pm
short loves to cherry pick data to support some wild ass claim like shrills and politicians do.
GregT on Sun, 22nd May 2016 9:11 pm
Short is intelligent Boat, you are not.
Boat on Sun, 22nd May 2016 9:35 pm
greggiet,
You of all people cannot judge intelligence. The US is up over 4 mbpd which is down from 5 from fracking. Quart shy was implying something different.
I know your dumb ass can’t keep up with a changing market but your trust in that phd was a bad choice. You need somebody new to read those numbers for you.
GregT on Sun, 22nd May 2016 10:00 pm
You are without a doubt the most stupid person that I’ve ever had correspondence with Boat. I stand by what I said before, your IQ is likely below 80. You’re giving handicapped people a bad rap Kevin.
Anonymous on Sun, 22nd May 2016 10:16 pm
Group predicts country to become net exporter for 1st time since ’50s.
And in a related story, the chocolate ration is being increased from 30 grams to 25 grams per week.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 23rd May 2016 1:50 am
Up 4 mbpd. Down 5. Implying something different? Whatever.
Let’s nitpick over minor details and ignore the elephant(s) sitting in the room.
Global trade plunging.
Transportation plunging.
Pensions going bust or on the verge, courtesy of ZIRP and QE funny money, the dynamic duo without which fracking in America would never have got off the ground.
Epic wealth transfer.
Chinese “global growth engine” demand sinking like a rock.
Corporate stock buybacks (in lieu of investment in future profit generating initiatives) now arriving at the end of the road.
Where there is smoke there is fire. That’s obvious.
And where there is global financial instability and threatening meltdown, there is a conspicuous lack of economic growth and a certainty that the old paradigm of constant growth has reached its logical end. The resources are all used up. There’s nothing left to fuel future growth, and all but the smartest folks in the room fail to recognize that DOOM DRIVEN fact.
Of course companies like IBM and Apple and all the rest would rather invest in future profit-driven initiatives rather than put everything they’ve got into keeping their stock price artificially elevated. But guess what. There is NO FUTURE to invest in. The CEOs and board members of the big corporations get that. But they aren’t saying so, not publicly.
On a clear day, all one needs to do is look around in a 360-degree sweep of the global economic landscape to see that the world is being crushed by debt, with bonfires burning in numerous places around the globe where not that long ago there was “significant investment opportunity”.
What is well hidden from the ignorant masses, and diligently obscured by purposeful propaganda, lies and a Mordor-like host of shills and trolls, is that modern high-tech civilization is dying from lack of energy and other key resources.
Most people will never understand the real causes of the pain, suffering, hardship and catastrophe that they are either living through right now, or will soon be forced to deal with.
But hey, let’s debate whether or not America is importing more oil today than at some prior point in time. Doing so keeps us from focusing on the real issues, and gives some of us an opportunity to pretend to be real damn smart.
sidzepp on Mon, 23rd May 2016 5:47 am
Excellent points NWR;
Currently there are 67 nations fighting 714 armed groups and that doesn’t include the homicides in the US.
http://www.warsintheworld.com/?page=static1258254223
As population continues to increase, resources continue to depleted, and the climate becomes more extreme the next few years will be very interesting.
rockman on Mon, 23rd May 2016 6:56 am
Dustin – OK, if you want bbls here you go. According to the EIS the US was importing 229,140 thousand bopd in Feb 2011…5 years ago. And the latest numbers from Feb 2016: the US imported 229,402 thousand bopd.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrimus1&f=m
So if you want to count bbl we’re importing a tiny bit more today then we were 5 years ago. If you have a data base you’ll feel is more reliable then the EIA please share.
As a side note have you noticed how many folks on both sides of debates will toss out numbers but almost never show the source backing up their statements? Except, of course, for the Rockman. LOL.
marmico on Mon, 23rd May 2016 7:29 am
Leap year in 2016. Use daily bopd.
It’s net imports of oil and product that determine petroleum self-sufficiency.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M
PracticalMaina on Mon, 23rd May 2016 8:08 am
Forecast changed from sunny to hazy, 100% chance of smog.
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 8:53 am
Penury “It would be a wonderful thing for me if for just one day I could accept the religious devotion of these people and revel in the glory of the marvelous universe we are creating her on earth.”
I was just telling my wife yesterday that I would very willingly give my arms, legs, tongue, eyes, ears, nuts, and dick to experience life like normal people do for just one hour to know what it feels like. I have been a seriously depressed realist since I have a memory. My first memory of my life is of leaning against a tree alone in my kindergarten’s playground looking at all the other kids playing, thinking how stupid their behavior was, and wondering why I wasn’t like them.
I basically don’t interact with normal people anymore. They have nothing to offer me and I don’t want to give them anything. My exception to this rule is my food gardening activities.
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 9:03 am
Short “That explains why the US is importing more foreign crude today than it was 5 years ago.”
Short, can you expand on this? Did you mean to say five months instead of years? I thought that the shale boom had reduced US oil imports more than they’ve increased in the last few months in the previous years. Are we really importing more crude than five years ago?
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 9:13 am
Rock, That February 2011 to February 2016 data comparison is correct, but I don’t think Short was referring to that since that was just a one month anomalous production in 2011. The rest of 2011’s production numbers are significantly higher. I admit that if that was the data Short was referring to he is technically correct, but it does look like some non representative one off thing that lasted only one month.
Davy on Mon, 23rd May 2016 9:30 am
Juan, I can relate to your inability to connect with most people. I just live two lives. I have one persona with the sheeple and then another with a very narrow group who understand the deeper meaning in life.
This does not necessarily depend on smarts. Many if not most really smart people I know or read are oblivious to a deeper reality. It is almost like smarts tend me towards specialize and it is this specialization that clouds their overall vision.
We can’t rely on are best minds for help in this coming great collapse. In fact they are the problem as much as he sheeples who can’t understand even the basics. This is really a cultural thAng created by mass consumption of globalism and techno-modernism. We are adrift as a species disconnected from our all giving Mother Nature. We will come back to her beaten and nearly dead if we even survive.
Davy on Mon, 23rd May 2016 9:34 am
I love auto fill on Iphon’s which is another bizarre modern thing when words come out you didn’t write ” I meant ” it is almost like smarts tends to specialize”
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 10:04 am
Davy, You and I are alike in many ways. I know you can relate to my experiences because I can relate to yours. I think that this is not exclusively about our intelligence or elitist education, it is also about the way our brains are wired and the way we grew up. You and I have many of the same virtues and flaws.
Most intelligent people are nothing but specialist morons. What a waste!
rockman on Mon, 23rd May 2016 12:37 pm
Juan – True but I didn’t pick the time period…shorty did. But look at shorty’s error based upon yearly numbers: it’s actually been about 19 years since we imported less oil then we did in 2015.
I don’t have a dog in this fight. LOL.I just fact check and put the numbers out there.
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 1:29 pm
Rock, I am just trying to learn. LOL! Thanks!
Lyndee on Sat, 1st Oct 2016 12:36 am
Until I found this I thghout I’d have to spend the day inside.
http://www./ on Sun, 5th Feb 2017 9:52 pm
toniAugust 2, 2012 at 6:50 amNigeria’s main exports are not scammers tho.Painful conclusion.On the up side,hope this turns out to be our best season in years.I LOVE THIS CLUB
http://www./ on Wed, 8th Feb 2017 11:18 pm
It’s always a relief when someone with obvious expertise answers. Thanks!
Dayana on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 8:39 pm
Great hammer of Thor, that is poluwfelry helpful!
http://www.kreditrechnerco.info/ on Fri, 12th Oct 2018 3:21 pm
más de 5 meses-1 dijo: dijo: dijo:Ahora si, falta un billete con la cara de "Él" y se completo la kirchnerización de Argentina.evita es kirchnerista? evita es un simbolo nacional, reconocida internacionalmente, simbolo del voto femenino y de las politicas socialesTambién es el sÃmbolo del ultrapopulismo que alimentó al peronismo durante toda su historia, que parece que vuelve una vez más con Cristina a la cabeza.populismo es un insulto?
Marni on Fri, 2nd Nov 2018 8:34 pm
It’s a real plreause to find someone who can think like that