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EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff thumbnail

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The scenario above shows an Oil Shock Model with a URR of 3600 Gb and EIA data from 1970 to 2015 and the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016 early release reference projection from 2016 to 2040. The oil shock model was originally developed by Webhubbletelescope and presented at his blog Mobjectivist and in a free book The Oil Conundrum.

The World extraction rate from producing reserves must rise to 15% in 2040 to accomplish this for this “high” URR scenario. This high scenario is 100 Gb lower than my earlier high scenario because I reduced my estimate of extra heavy oil URR (API gravity<10) to 500 Gb. The annual decline rate rises to 5% from 2043 to 2047 creating a “Seneca cliff”, the decline rate is reduced to 2% by 2060.

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The scenario presented above uses BP’s Energy Outlook 2035, published in Feb 2016. This outlook does not extend to 2040, maximum output is 88 Mb/d in 2035 at the end of the scenario. This scenario is still optimistic, but is more reasonable than the EIA AEO 2016. Extraction rates rise to 10.6% and the annual decline rate rises to 2.5% in 2042 and is reduced to under 2% by 2053.

A problem with the BP Outlook is the expectation that US light tight oil (LTO) output will rise to 7.5 Mb/d from 2030 to 2035, the BP forecast for US LTO from 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 is shown below.

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A more realistic forecast would be a peak of 6 Mb/d in 2022 with output declining to 3 Mb/d by 2035. The scenario below shows roughly what World output might be with this more realistic, but still optimistic scenario. There is a plateau in output at 85 Mb/d from 2025 to 2030 with annual decline rate peaking at 2.1% in 2044 and then falling under 2% per year from 2048 to 2070.

blogchart/

A discussion with Ron Patterson about reserve growth led me to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) website where I found a study of reserve growth outside the US published in December 2015.

The USGS estimates World non-continuous resources outside the US of 3300 Gb (this includes oil already produced.) Non-continuous resources excludes extra heavy oil (Orinico belt and Canadian oil sands) and LTO resources. The US URR is about 285 Gb when LTO is included and about 255 Gb without LTO. The total World non-continuous URR is about 3560 Gb based on the USGS estimate of 3300 Gb plus my US estimate of 255 Gb rounded to 3 significant digits.

I believe the USGS has overestimated OPEC 2P reserves by 200 Gb and that world LTO URR will be about 80 Gb, thus World C+C less extra heavy oil (XH) URR will be about 3400 Gb. Leaving my XH estimate at 500 Gb, World C+C URR might be as high as 3900 Gb, if the recent USGS estimate of reserve growth and undiscovered resources is correct.

The scenario below uses the AEO 2016 projection with the (very optimistic) World C+C URR of 3900 Gb, the Seneca Cliff is avoided, if we define a Seneca Cliff as an annual decline rate of more than a 4%/year average rate of decline for 4 years or more. Generally a Seneca cliff is not precisely defined in this way, but just indicates a prolonged “steep” decline. I do not consider this scenario remotely realistic, but was interested in the decline rate after the peak and this scenario has an extremely high peak output rate.

blogchart/

The scenario below uses the optimistic URR of 3900 Gb, but the more reasonable BP Energy Outlook published in 2016, annual decline rates are 1% or less from 2035 to 2050 and rise to 2% from 2058 to 2068, the peak decline rate is 2.1% in 2070 and decline rates fall to about 1.7% by 2085 and remain around that level long term if extraction rates remain at the 2070 level of 9.6% over the long term.
The scenario below remains too optimistic due to the unrealistic US tight oil forecast as well as the very high URR.

blogchart/

A final scenario with a plateau in output at 85 Mb/d from 2025 to 2050 is presented below with the very high URR of 3900 Gb. Annual decline rates are 1% or less until 2050 and 1.5% or less from 2051 to 2070.

blogchart/

This scenario seems plausible if the URR estimate is correct, but the USGS may be mistaken in assuming that US reserve growth is a good analog for the rest of the world. For that reason the plateau scenario with a C+C URR of 3600 Gb (fourth chart of the post) is the most reasonable scenario presented in this post.

An even more reasonable scenario would use the USGS F95 estimate for reserve growth and undiscovered resources outside the US, this reduces the URR by 200 Gb to 3400 Gb, fairly close to my Medium scenario. That scenario is below, but it needs some future revision of the extra heavy oil scenario which is too optimistic based on recent cutbacks in investment and the situation in Venezuela.

This affects all scenarios in this post, which all have included a scenario for extra heavy oil that is too optimistic. That will be revised in June when the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers releases their forecast.

blogchart/

peak oil barrel



47 Comments on "EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff"

  1. Apneaman on Fri, 20th May 2016 6:07 pm 

    Every time I turn around there is yet another report on how the Rockmen of merica are fucking over the little guy. Poisoned water, earthquakes, spills, busting up town folks infrastructure, air pollution – methane leaks galore effecting pregnant women’s unborn babies, intimidation, regulatory capture, infiltrating colleges and universities, gag orders and part of a AGW dis-information and denial campaign that at the very least has brought on climate change about as fast as possible and now they are cashing in via tax breaks while the workingman taxpayer’s school children get the shaft. And they act so fucking prideful and full of swagger except of course when they get exposed like their #1 hero, hot shot Aubrey McClendon, and show their true cowardice by committing suicide cause they cowards who can’t face the music. Fucking sub human cancer monkey’s killing their own kids as fast as fast can. Rant out.

    When the oil boom went bust, Oklahoma protected drillers and squeezed schools

    Oilmen won a big victory when legislators made permanent one of the juiciest tax breaks in the United States. Schools, meanwhile, are having to cut classes, administrators and teachers to make up a growing revenue shortfall.

    “NEWCASTLE, Oklahoma – After intense lobbying, Oklahoma’s oilmen scored a victory two years ago. State lawmakers voted to keep in place some of the lowest taxes on oil and gas production in the United States – a break worth $470 million in fiscal year 2015 alone. ”

    http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-oklahoma-bust/

  2. makati1 on Fri, 20th May 2016 8:04 pm 

    First chart told me to not waste my time reading. Bullshit piled high.

  3. Davy on Fri, 20th May 2016 8:35 pm 

    The problem with these charts is the smooth backside. The backside is where things get vicious.

  4. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 20th May 2016 9:00 pm 

    I’d explain it to you but I don’t have the time or the crayons. Lol idiots! I find the scenarios presented in the charts to be interesting. It is likely that the future reality will fall somewhere inbetween the minimum and maximum parameters. I find it enlightening. I suppose if you’re some minimum wage retard basement dweller it’s a little overwhelming to be confronted with data but I have a lot of skin in the game and positioning my resources appropriately at the right time will be very lucrative. My survival may well depend on it. All you anti-science doom porn losers should stick to the comic books.

  5. makati1 on Fri, 20th May 2016 9:13 pm 

    Truth.

    Oil is dying.

    Capitalism is dying.

    Western civilization is dying.

    You are playing a losing game.

  6. Davy on Fri, 20th May 2016 9:28 pm 

    Liberal bias, you are a great example of a psychopathic attitude in action.

  7. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 20th May 2016 10:52 pm 

    Yet I seem to be happy. Perhaps I should be a dead beat loser who feels unvalued by my community and prays for collapse so I can feel better about myself.. Naw, I’ll stick with being a winner. I didn’t invent the world. I didn’t make the rules. I’m looking out for number one. These charts/scenarios are great. The one with the best information usually wins. Good luck losers. You need it if you can’t read a chart. Stick to your comic books and doom porn. Losers.

  8. dave thompson on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:05 pm 

    Truth you should run for vice president with Trump.

  9. GregT on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:13 pm 

    “I suppose if you’re some minimum wage retard basement dweller it’s a little overwhelming to be confronted with data but I have a lot of skin in the game and positioning my resources appropriately at the right time will be very lucrative. My survival may well depend on it.”

    It may very well THALB. May Lady Luck smile on you!

  10. Apneaman on Sat, 21st May 2016 1:02 am 

    Truth anti-science? What “science” are you speaking of? Statistics? Not science, a tool and so is all maths. Awhile back I told you your future would be decided by what is happening in the arctic right now and you did not have a fucking clue what I was talking about – cause you don’t know shit about science. Houston last month, Fort McMurray and surrounding area recently and climate disasters are happening all over the planet as I write. These are multi billion dollar events and once that Arctic blue ocean happens, within a year the shit you’re seeing now will be fondly remembered as the good ole days. It’s gonna break industrial civilizations back bone or rather finish breaking it. Nothing gets put back the way it was anymore after these disasters. Can’t afford it. The cumulative effect will be too much. Still thinking climate science from 10 years ago – by 2100 and all that bullshit? Sorry the order of the day is “faster than previously expected”. I guess like most you need to pretend you actually have some influence of how your future will turn out – you don’t. Want to play last man standing eh? The last ones standing will be the ones who formed a tribe and cooperated, not lone wolf survivalist retards whose brains have been filled with Holly Wood fantasy bullshit perpetrating the American myth of the tough loner – SHANE SHANE COME BACK SHANE – rides off into the sunset. Even worse are those prepper shows. A childish fantasy. If your such a loner why are you here and on other blogs? Cause your a talking social monkey in need of interaction with others of your species, albeit an impoverished cyber version. How do you know you can stand to be alone with no contact? Ever test yourself? Isolate yourself – no people, phone, internet, radio, news paper? Ever kill anything with those guns and ammo? Do you think you might have been flagged on a CSIS server somewhere for claiming to have all that ammo and guns and ready to rumble? Smooth move. Maybe you will get bailed in and maybe when tshtf it won’t be anything like you imagined. Maybe you won’t need any of them bullets or maybe just one.

  11. makati1 on Sat, 21st May 2016 1:19 am 

    Ap, kick him when he is down….lol. But then, those who happen on him after, are likely to do just that.

    A tribe/neighborhood group/gang is the only semi-safe way to live after. No one person or family will be able to survive the hordes of roving scavengers who will be better armed and more ruthless than any armchair general can ever be.

    You are likely to never see the shooter of the bullet that kills you or the one who throws the burning torch on your roof at 3 AM. and his buddies waiting for you to run outside.

    I laugh at those ‘armed’ preppers that think a few guns and some ammo is security. There will never be security again. It is fast disappearing even now.

  12. onlooker on Sat, 21st May 2016 4:22 am 

    Yes, I always laughed at the whole prepper thing. Just another manifestation of our less than benign and antisocial attitudes especially in the good ol US of A. Always intended to be part of a sane somewhat caring community. Do not even see that very feasible now as time is getting late and people with attitudes like Truth still prevail. Oh well, fitting. I like AP am just getting mentally prepared. So when the time comes I will be ready to take me and my loved ones OUT before anyone else does. Or maybe we will be spared that and just be one of the casualties of War or Pandemic.

  13. theedrich on Sat, 21st May 2016 5:01 am 

    Quite apart from projections about the timing of cliffs (which are rarely accurate to the last decimal point), there is no question but that the planet is approaching the most deadly crisis of human existence.  The anti-White movement of Western bribe-ocracies to import the entire mud world and its human sewage into Europe and America makes that certain.  The more sludge we import, the more sludge we need to import to support the increased burden.  It’s called “growth.”  And the underlying theology can be summed up in the old aphorism that he who dies with the most toys wins.

    Oil is only one of the links in the chain of civilization’s existence, and not necessarily the weakest one, as Gail Tverberg has shown.  Moreover, given the megalomaniac policies of U.S. demigods ever since Honest Abe, we may even have a WMD showdown at the OK Corral.  Since the White man has been hypnotized by his religions into believing that he should commit suicide and let darkies take over, the apocalypse could happen at any time.

  14. Davy on Sat, 21st May 2016 6:27 am 

    Wow, we get some prepper criticism and the usual don’t try to defend yourself because “they are going to get yooou”attitude. This is bullshit and represent laziness. Prepping is about life. We prep to live in this insane status quo why not prep to live in the post status quo? The very basics are not that different nor that difficult. Much of it is attitude and lifestyle that is good even without a crisis. It is about different lifestyles and attitudes that represent resilience and sustainability.

    Mental prepping is important but if you use the excuse that you are mentally prepping to die and despair than you are just lazy and don’t want to go the extra step to action. You may not have family and friends to defend. My attitude is I am the patriarch of my family and a leader. It is my duty and my nature to defend my family and friends. Action takes energy, time, and resources and most people don’t want to make tradeoffs between their status quo life now and more safety latter. Some would rather bitch, moan, and complain than do anything about it.

    The individuals here that claim you can’t defend yourself are full of shit. How do they know how this collapse is going to unfold? We can be sure that at a minimum we are going to have increased insecurity from desperate people and break down of social order but how much, time frame, and where? You make security efforts because of the unknown knowns. Guns and ammo along with a security plan that includes monitoring is a sure fire way to increase your safety. Community and neighbors who work together is a must. Anyone who cuts down prepping and personal defense is suffering cognitive dissonance mainly because they are too lazy to change or helpless to change. It is an excuse to be lazy and procrastinate or it is helplessness.

  15. shortonoil on Sat, 21st May 2016 7:02 am 

    This is the guy that sent us an email that stated that the Etp Model wasn’t any good, and wasn’t worth anything. Then, I found out, he hadn’t even read it! He then said that you couldn’t put a “value” on energy. When I asked him why the power company sends out bills every month, since a Kw-hr is an energy unit, he ignored it. Our advise to him still stands, buy a thermodynamics text book and stop wasting your time creating stupid charts based on stupid information. URR 3900 Gb, is so ridiculously absurd that it goes without stating.

  16. Cloud9 on Sat, 21st May 2016 8:04 am 

    So, it holds together for another decade unless the failure to grow triggers margin calls in the debt.

  17. Davy on Sat, 21st May 2016 9:00 am 

    Cloud, yes, or should I say it appears so. Peak oil dynamics and climate change appear to have a good possibility of a decadal threshold. Remember though that it is the approach to critical threshold that are usually the triggers but then again sometimes their is stickiness.

    The economy and its ability to support 7Bil people and the high complexity needed for support of all local is a different story. It may fail at anytime but it will surely fail when the thresholds of climate change and peak oil dynamics are breached.

    10 years is a good prep period so now is the time for individuals and communities to take steps to improve resilience and sustainability in the face of the coming existential storm. Forget nations and the global community changing. If they can’t take meaningful steps on the climate then there is no hope for any other change. I say with an exception of a serious crisis like nothing the world has ever experienced may allow meaningful change but by then it may be too late.

  18. onlooker on Sat, 21st May 2016 11:01 am 

    “So, it holds together for another decade unless the failure to grow triggers margin calls in the debt.” That is Cloud what appears quite near on the horizon. In fact by real measures we are not growing anymore. Debt is being increased to sustain the semblance of business as usual. At some point somebody is going to blink and then the whole House of Cards will come down.

  19. Northwest Resident on Sat, 21st May 2016 11:10 am 

    The consortium of elites (PTB) that rule this world are playing the global economy like a fiddle. Which is the ONLY reason that we have not yet plunged into chaos and socio-economic disintegration. Picture in your mind a devilish virtuoso in his ivory tower as he feverishly grinds out the notes on his red-hot fiddle, and as the bonfires spread from treetop to housetop burning everything below. Still, the mad man plays on, putting every ounce of his failing energy into this one last monstrous performance, fully aware that the strings of his instrument will snap at any moment and that THAT will be the moment when the curtain finally comes down on this incredibly wasteful rendition of human civilization.

    Ten more years of this screeching noise? That’s a lot more than trends seem to indicate. Ten weeks or months would be a better guess, IMO. But I thought it would all unravel in 2015, so what do I know.

  20. onlooker on Sat, 21st May 2016 11:13 am 

    Agree North, I give it max about 5 years.

  21. Northwest Resident on Sat, 21st May 2016 11:34 am 

    “I believe historians (and many others) will look back at this period and struggle to comprehend how such Unambiguous Signals were Disregarded: Declining equities and commodities prices in the face of massive QE; out-of-control debt growth in China; EM financial and economic travails; competitive devaluations and wild currency market volatility; unfathomable global bond yields; sinking global bank stocks; hedge fund struggles in the face of aggressive monetary stimulus; U.S. political upheaval (deep divisions, Trump, Bernie, etc.); rising geopolitical pressure across the globe; and tensions between the U.S. and China heading to the boiling point.”

    The strings are getting ready to snap!!

    http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/

  22. Apneaman on Sat, 21st May 2016 11:53 am 

    Davy, my criticism of preppers is only of the guns N ammo, lone wolf, movie types. It doesn’t include y’all “farm boy” types.

    “Farm boy… fetch me that pitcher.”

    “as you wish”

    Hollywood does have it right in one instance. The Walking Dead. Not the zombies, they just there because no one is allowed to name the real issues for the inevitable collapse. The humans always use stories to try and deal with their problems – peculiar little monkeys they are. If you pay attention to the walking dead it’s really about tribes forming/cooperation after collapse – not lone guns & ammo preppers – they all dead or gone insane from isolation.

    No more gun& ammo talk and I mean it!

    Anybody want a peanut?

  23. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:15 pm 

    Apneaman, please spare us the melodrama. If you put 1/2 the energy into improving your life as you put into reposting doomer porn you might not be living paycheck to paycheck. You’re a socially retarded moron who prays for collapse as it’s the only revenge you’ll ever perceive against a society that views you as useless.

  24. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:18 pm 

    Oh yeah and CSIS did knock on my door once. I could care less; some fat loser with a cheap suit and a rolly-polly physique. Oh no CSIS is gonna get me lol. Fucking booger eaters. All you losers are fucking retarded. I didn’t invent the game but I sure no how to play it. Industrial civilization is doomed. Excuse me while I make a few bucks off it on the way down. It’s not hard to do if you have a fucking brain.

  25. Apneaman on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:25 pm 

    onlooker, on the decade plus time frame we could just as easily go through a series of crashes, like 2008, and put band aids on it and stagger on with ever more people doing with less and more homeless, hungry, suicides, addictions, etc. I find human systems harder to predict. Physics, chemistry and biologly we have a much firmer grasp of where that’s going or rather taking us. Unlike, say 1929, the ptb know with greater certainty that a crash is inevitable, so even while they push on with BAU they are also expending greater amounts of energy and resources to kick the can. Most of that is to try and maintain the faith of a majority of the sheep. No human social construct can continue without enough people believing in the story. There used to be this story in Europe called the divine right of kings and the infallibility of the church/god. In France, some intellectuals, Robespierre & Co, came along during bad times and told a new story that said the old story is fucked. The suffering sheeple believed him and they had an orgy of gore and blood rewriting the new story. Hitler told a new story and so did Mao Zedong et al. In America today, Trump is the new story teller – good luck with that.

  26. onlooker on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:25 pm 

    Great summary of the economic and financial turmoils North. Forgot two more though. PEAK OIL. The peak oil dynamic is ready to take down the economy a few more notches as Unconventionals become even less economically viable even while at some point the inflexibility of Oil demand will make itself known with higher prices. And the death of the dollar as China, Russia and Brazil dump dollar denominated Debt. Oh yes a Perfect storm is brewing.

  27. onlooker on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:34 pm 

    Yes, AP, the average US citizen is a tough nut to crack in terms of their delusional thinking. I suspect we need some more Shock and Awe to get dumb Americans to really react and say WTF. haha. Then, well maybe people will stop spending and hide their money waiting for Collapse. Who knows? As you said individual and Herd mentality in people are tough to predict. At some point though the fear that the Elite try and keep us in will backfire and we will fear the status quo more than radical change. Then the floodgates will be open. So perception and real events will work in synergy .

  28. Davy on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:38 pm 

    This is going to become more common as the unintended consequences of low interest rates bites into the pension and insurance industry.

    “Rejected: Central States Fund Proposes 60% Pension Cuts, Treasury Dept Says “Not Enough”; 407,000 Affected”
    https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/20/rejected-central-states-fund-proposes-60-pension-cuts-treasury-dept-says-not-enough-407000-affected/

    “407,000 private sector workers are about to lose most of their pensions. I first wrote about this on April 21, in One of Nation’s Largest Pension Funds (Truckers) Will Reduce Benefits or Go Broke by 2025. The Central States Pension Fund, which handles the retirement benefits for current and former Teamster union truck drivers across various states applied for reductions under that law. Currently the plan pays out $3.46 in pension benefits for every $1 it receives from employers. That’s a drain of $2 billion annually. The plan filed for 60% cuts in pensions. The Treasury Department has the final say. The verdict came in today: “cuts not deep enough”.”

  29. Apneaman on Sat, 21st May 2016 12:57 pm 

    If one follows up after these new and ever more frequent and destructive AGW jacked weather disasters, it becomes obvious that industrial civilization cannot afford to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. For now they can still keep him staggering along, but he’s looking more raggedy by the day. Major infrastructure and the rich man’s property (taxpayer funded beach sand) are at the top of the repairs list, but many are getting shut out for bail outs.

    South Carolina, 6 months after floods: ‘Rough road ahead’

    “COLUMBIA, SC
    In a flood, nature can steal everything: lives and homes, delicate Christmas ornaments, a favorite flannel shirt, a special fishing hole.

    The historic rains and floods that battered South Carolina in October claimed 19 lives, destroyed more than $1 billion in homes and property, and left thousands struggling to recoup.

    Many in the region are still trying to regain their balance. Here are a few of their stories.”

    http://www.thestate.com/news/local/article72241982.html

  30. shortonoil on Sat, 21st May 2016 1:03 pm 

    “I believe historians (and many others) will look back at this period and struggle to comprehend how such Unambiguous Signals were Disregarded:”

    It is really no different than the 2008 crash, or the dot com bust. Many people saw it coming but the main stream did not want to believe it. 1929 was the same; pundits were saying that the market was going up forever the day before it collapsed. The present situation is not any different, except that it will undoubtedly to be bigger, and last for a very long time.

    We have talked about the cannibalization process that is now taking place to keep petroleum flowing. This is the most obvious in petroleum itself; producers are no longer coming anywhere near close to replacing their reserves. They are now feeding off their own assets to stay in business. That is not only taking place in petroleum, but also everywhere else. Roads aren’t being replaced, and the US airline industry has a fleet that is almost 60 years old. That is the low hanging fruit, and we are rapidly coming to the end of it.

    Next will be pension funds, and corporations have already borrowed 100s of $ billions to pay dividends, and buy their own stock back. They are consuming their own assets to keep their book values elevated. The economy we now have is like a mirage in the dessert. It can look very real until it flickers out of existence. When that moment will come no one can say!

  31. onlooker on Sat, 21st May 2016 2:29 pm 

    Too little too late but some Americans are waking up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atSWC89ylTo

  32. Sissyfuss on Sat, 21st May 2016 2:32 pm 

    Dear Toot has a liberally big ass,you are one selfish piece of shyst! I’m sure that Trumph is not facist enough for you and do you still jerk to that poster of McCarthy and Hoover dancing the Tango?

  33. Apneaman on Sat, 21st May 2016 3:24 pm 

    Truth

    “doomer porn”? Maybe to someone like you who can’t tell the difference. I don’t post articles from the economic collapse/rapture blogs or any hyper macho (insecure) fantasy survivalist sites. Most of what I post are AGW jacked events, science explainer articles and sometimes the studies themselves when not linked in the explainer article. I almost never post articles about model predictions except the ones that proved many were off by 50 – 75 years. Don’t have to; disasters are happening almost every day. I also post evidence of cultural and societal breakdown. Course you know all this stuff being so scientific and all eh? Truth the scientific prepper – locked and loaded. Tell yourself.

    BTW, I’m more than satisfied being considered a socially retarded moron. The last thing I want is to be consider one of them. Anyone who is considered normal in this society is a twisted and lost IMO. Unlike you I’m not overly concerned with what anyone outside my circle of family and friends thinks about me and it’s not like I print off articles of AGW events and hand them out on the street corner while wearing a “THE END IS NEIGH!” sandwich board. (Although I’ve thought about it)

    Also, my pay cheque comes from my long time investment partner who collects the money from our fine tenants in Burnaby. He even raised the rent on them last year due to the hongcouver bubble. I haven’t punched the clock since 2008 and even then I owned the clock. 2005 was the last time I had a wage boss. I guess I’m good-to-go dooming my days away until collapse eh? See, while you need to spend your time day trading and panicking about ammo stocks, I don’t “have” to do fuck all. I do small repair jobs for cash cause I like fixing shit and it keeps my skills sharp and lets me continue studying the humans.

    Like me, Greg, Davy, Ghung and others out there are also middle age “doomers” of different flavors and it doesn’t appear that they are punching the clock and answering to the boss man either, so if extracting ones self as much as possible from the wage slave, cubicle, factory, commuter traffic world populated by idiots and retards makes me a loser then, I’m ok with being labeled as such.

    If knowledge is so all important then why do you give away your plans so freely? Sounds like you need to constantly brag. Assuming CISI did send an agent, he was a spy – an information gather. When the shit hits the fan and if the government sends someone to your door they won’t be wearing suits, they’ll be wearing military uniforms or cops tactical gear and they will have you out gunned. Try reading a history book. The pattern is crystal clear. Weapons, means of commutation and anyone they deem influential or potentially violent is the first thing TPTB go for when they start getting nervous. Thanks for letting us know say’s big gov. Who’s the retard? And if it’s the worse case scenario (unlikely at first) – total anarchy – your moneys gone. Whatcha gonna do then? Go hide out in your hill top fortress and play solitaire by candlelight until the ravages of AGW get ya? You don’t have a plan, you have a movie script.

  34. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 21st May 2016 4:43 pm 

    lol Short doesn’t know the difference between Cost vs Price vs Worth vs Value

    what a fucking retard. The utility bill I get each month for my bill is not based on value. Get a fucking brain retard.

    http://humancond.org/analysis/economics/price_vs_worth_vs_value

  35. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 21st May 2016 4:45 pm 

    apneaman, you’re a fucking idiot. This site is just one big doomer porn circle jerk. You guys obviously don’t get laid much.

  36. sidzepp on Sat, 21st May 2016 5:54 pm 

    Growing up outside Chicago in the early sixties the fall out shelter became the prep choice. All you had to do was enclose a portion of the basement with cinder blocks, horde some canned food and bottled water, and rest in repose while the USSR and the US threw their missiles at each other and enjoy the light show. Asked my dad why he wasn’t building one and he basically said that they didn’t make one bit of difference and he would rather be at ground zero if the Armageddon were to come. People that are prepping for the upcoming show don’t have a clue to what they are about to face.

  37. Davy on Sat, 21st May 2016 8:25 pm 

    Sid, you don’t have a clue with what is coming, where, and when. There are so many possibilities. I agree someday really bad shit is going down but between then and now it is worth your while to prep. If you are not prepping you are an idiot for relying on the status quo establishment to take care of you. Besides, prepping is fun and a learning experience.

  38. makati1 on Sat, 21st May 2016 8:35 pm 

    sidzepp, your dad was one smart man. If the nukes fly (and it seems to be more and more likely) being on ground zero will be the best place. Instant death. If you survive the exchange, only hell will lay ahead for you and yours. If starvation or the “zombies” don’t get you, the radiation will. Slow death by cancer or just a breakdown of your body’s systems. I’ll take vaporization.

  39. GregT on Sat, 21st May 2016 9:33 pm 

    “This site is just one big doomer porn circle jerk. You guys obviously don’t get laid much.”

    Most of the guys here are married THALB, and many have been for quite some time. Getting laid isn’t as important as it was when we were back in our teens. Give it time, you’ll figure it all out eventually.

  40. makati1 on Sat, 21st May 2016 10:42 pm 

    GregT. some men, as you mentioned, think with their balls, and don’t realize that those are some of the least important parts of their body. The real important one is at the top, not middle. The Ozark farmer accused me of moving to the Ps for sex. As if at 70+, that was important. Or even at 50 or 40. I grew out of that lust in my 20s.

    I’m not dead, but there are many other more important interests besides boobs and bottoms. Not that I do not look at or cannot appreciate a good pair or a nice butt on a shapely figure. Just not as important as when I was a teen. ^_^

  41. onlooker on Sun, 22nd May 2016 3:07 am 

    Well, I am 54 and yes sex is superficial. I am married so I have sex and I also look at porn. I am faithful to my wife. So, I do not have a problem with sex haha.

  42. Kenz300 on Sun, 22nd May 2016 4:42 am 

    Big Oil Could Have Cut CO2 Emissions In 1970s — But Did Nothing

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/big-oil-emissions_us_573c9d81e4b0aee7b8e8a046

    Climate Change is real….. we will all be impacted by it……

    Exxon’s Climate Change Cover-Up Is ‘Unparalleled Evil,’ Says Activist

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/exxon-evil-bill-mckibben_561e7362e4b028dd7ea5f45f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green&section=green

  43. makati1 on Sun, 22nd May 2016 5:22 am 

    onlooker, give it another 10-15 years and come back with how many times you XXX in a year. LOL I bet it is less than the number of fingers you have on one hand.

  44. onlooker on Sun, 22nd May 2016 6:38 am 

    Your right about that biologically speaking Mak haha. But of course all our frivolous talk and plans now seem totally irrelevant as Consequences come barreling towards us. I have always wondered if sex exists on the other side hehe.

  45. Davy on Sun, 22nd May 2016 7:05 am 

    “The Ozark farmer accused me of moving to the Ps for sex.” Makati Bill since you are calling me out I said you moved to the P’s because you are a coward and can’t face a failed life in the US and or afraid of what is ahead. You deserted your big family to save your own skin although I find saving your skin in the P’s to be a particularly bad choice considering it is in extreme overshoot and ranked near the top of environmentally in danger places:
    http://www.worldriskreport.org/

  46. peakyeast on Sun, 22nd May 2016 7:53 am 

    Been married for 16 years now. First marriage. Sex never meant anything to me at any age. I have absolutely hated parties, concerts and similar noisy social events.

    But I get the sex I want and always have. Actually my experience is that its far more difficult avoiding women that getting “caught” by one.

  47. shortonoil on Sun, 22nd May 2016 9:23 am 

    “The utility bill I get each month for my bill is not based on value. Get a fucking brain retard.”

    If the power company based their bill on the size of your brain, you’d get money back every month.

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