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Page added on May 9, 2016
M. King Hubbert: The Limits To Oil
M. King Hubbert did more to raise awareness of the finite nature of global oil reserves than any other person, living or dead. He was a larger-than-life figure, who fought tirelessly to insert the limits of nature into the national dialog regarding the strategic use of resources. Yet surprisingly little has been publicly documented about the man, even though we are hurdling ever faster into a future shaped by the very limits he warned about.
In today’s podcast, Chris talks with Mason Inman about his new book The Oracle Of Oil, the first in-depth biography of M. King Hubbert, to learn more about the genesis of the Peak Oil theory:
Hubbert was in a much higher position within the oil industry than I had realized. He was Head of Research at Shell Oil (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) with the research for exploration and production of oil. At the time – this was in the 40s through the 60s when he was there – Shell’s lab was the most advanced in the industry, so he was really a leader within the industry.
Also, it turned out there wasn’t a job for trying to forecast the future of oil. Basically, nobody was really doing anything rigorous. It had been growing quickly and they just kind of assumed that this would continue. He was doing this on his own, going against the grain in the industry to try to make forecasts that were rigorous. When he came out with bad news where he was saying that it looks like the oil production in the US will peak around the late 60s or early 70s, this was not a message that the industry wanted to hear. He had to fight to try to get people to take it seriously even though he had this really important position within the industry(…)
He was very stubborn, which had some good sides to it and some bad sides to it. Even when people weren’t listening to him, he still kept hammering away at these issues about that growth can’t continue forever, that we’ll run into limits with oil production and that the economy is often shaped by forces that aren’t the best for common people necessarily. Even when people weren’t listening, he still kept trying to get these messages across for decades because he believed that education and rational discussion was the best way to try to change society.
I really came to appreciate his persistence in his and it was remarkable how he never seemed to get bitter that it was difficult to get these messages across. Sometimes when other people did start to get attention for similar ideas, he wasn’t bitter that they were getting a lot of attention rather than he was. For example, in the early 1970s, there’s this report, The Limits to Growth that came out that got a lot of attention and in his talks Hubbert pointed out this was essentially what he had been talking about for years and the people who were behind The Limits to Growth report, these MIT researchers, they actually said that they got a lot of inspiration from Hubbert. I have a letter that I ran across in Hubbert’s papers from Dennis Meadows, who was one of the leaders of The Limits to Growth report and he was suggesting a collaboration with Hubbert and it never came about, but it’s kind of amazing to think about What if they had? (…)
It’s important for people to realize that conventional oil production did peak a decade ago in 2006. Conventional oil makes up about 90% of the oil that we consume now and it’s from the kind of fields where you drill a hole in the ground and oil comes out. The unconventional oil that we hear a lot more about – like from fracking, where you have to pump all this fluid in to create fractures in the rocks in order to get any oil out, or tar sands where you have to dig things up and cook them down in order to get oil out – those unconventional sources get a lot of attention because they’re the marginal source that have a lot of influence on what the price of oil is. But, they actually make up a very small part of what we consume, so people have generated a lot of hype around fracking but it’s a relatively small player in the overall oil market – though it can have a big influence on prices, as we’ve seen lately. Fracking is not the only reason why the price of oil has dropped lately. It’s also because the world economy is not doing well and the growth forecasts keep getting revised downward, but it definitely played a role that oil production in the US was able to increase so rapidly. But that’s tied up with a whole bunch of stuff like cheap credit being available to these companies so that they could boost production without really having to worry about the normal things that businesses worry about.
That’s a big reason why we’re not seeing the death of peak oil I think, because we’ve hit this limit with conventional oil production. Companies have had every reason to try to boost production of conventional oil if they could, and so far it seems like they haven’t been able to. And now major forecasters like the International Energy Agency or Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) or BP (NYSE:BP): they all say that conventional oil production isn’t going to go any higher than it is now. But those forecasters have also generally been overly optimistic about how much conventional oil production there would be. They didn’t foresee this peak coming so I’m inclined to think that their latest forecasts are probably also overly optimistic. If they’re saying it’s just going to be flat from here on for the next quarter century, that’s probably too high. We’re probably looking at a decline in conventional oil production coming.
I’ve definitely found a lot of reports from the military in the US and other countries that are raising concerns about peak oil or about limits to the oil that might be available to the military and the cost of that oil. They’re definitely thinking about these issues.
25 Comments on "M. King Hubbert: The Limits To Oil"
Dredd on Mon, 9th May 2016 2:42 pm
Strange that some people do not believe him.
Kinda like Newton (The Warming Science Commentariat – 3).
Plantagenet on Mon, 9th May 2016 3:20 pm
Everyone believes that oil production will peak sometime in the future. The real question is when will oil production peak. Hubbert did a good job predicting when conventional oil will peak, but he underestimated the rate at which oil could be produced from unconventional oil sources. I’m sure Hubbert would be just amazed to see the world in an oil glut today, at production levels far higher then he predicted global oil production would ever get to.
Cheers!
Boat on Mon, 9th May 2016 3:39 pm
When nat gas heavy trucks and electric cars along with efficiency equal new demand, bingo, the last peak. 2030 looks good.
Plantagenet on Mon, 9th May 2016 3:57 pm
2030 for the peak? Switch the economy to NG and EVs?
Could be, boat, could be.
Cheers!
Boat on Mon, 9th May 2016 4:14 pm
plant,
No plant, all you need is a 1 mbpd or so switch.
HARM on Mon, 9th May 2016 4:14 pm
What Planter said.
Davy on Mon, 9th May 2016 4:44 pm
You better get started with that transition because you are running out of time. You are actually out of time but I want you to continue to have hope so I am giving you encouragement.
Plantagenet on Mon, 9th May 2016 6:09 pm
@Davy
Sounds like we need more Hope! and Change!—- but for real this time.
Cheers!
dave thompson on Mon, 9th May 2016 6:27 pm
Great info on this pod cast. To sum it up, we are past peak conventional oil, shale gas and fracking do not amount to shit, anyone not hip to the notion of the limits to growth and what we now face on the planet is an idiot. Electric cars amount to nothing but wishful thinking. Time to face facts there is no known replacement for FF energy density and power delivery that allow for industrial civilization as we live and know it.
Davy on Mon, 9th May 2016 7:07 pm
Planter, some of us will make it for a time. It is a big world. Many won’t no matter what we do. It is just the way the numbers fall. None of us is getting out of here alive anyway so let’s live to die another day. Good luck with your hope and change.
Boat on Mon, 9th May 2016 7:22 pm
dave,
You talk it now walk it. Whats your doomer story.
Davy on Mon, 9th May 2016 7:31 pm
Come again boater? Doomer story? There is no story it is called reality.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Mon, 9th May 2016 8:10 pm
“High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a6c6032-1521-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html#ixzz48D8pqpSX
Discoveries of new oil reserves have dropped to their lowest level for more than 60 years, pointing to potential supply shortages in the next decade.
Oil explorers found 2.8bn barrels of crude and related liquids last year, according to IHS, a consultancy. This is the lowest annual volume recorded since 1954, reflecting a slowdown in exploration activity as hard-pressed oil companies seek to conserve cash. High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a6c6032-1521-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html#ixzz48D8wdCpJ
Most of the new reserves that have been found are offshore in deep water, where oilfields take an of average seven years to bring into production, so the declining rate of exploration success points to reduced supplies from the mid-2020s.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a6c6032-1521-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html#axzz48D8LwGGx
dave thompson on Mon, 9th May 2016 10:02 pm
Boat, my story is to take it easy, enjoy life and consume as little as possible in a modern consumer kind of way. I spend only on what I need, food, shelter ect. I am not a doomer so much as realist and enjoy keeping up with the latest end of growth news. Tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, who knows what the future holds. The cracks in capitalism and our current state of affairs is showing. How quickly things go south is most likely dependent on abrupt climate change that is rearing its ugly head now, and proving to get worse as every year for the past 20 years is showing. The arctic blue ocean event will be a real show stopper. This year or in the next few? It is inevitable. The climate shift of global average temps rising is unstoppable.
GregT on Mon, 9th May 2016 11:17 pm
“The climate shift of global average temps rising is unstoppable.”
So far this May, we have routinely seen temperature anomalies of 8-12ºC above normal average temperatures. The first couple of days of May we experienced temperatures as high as 17ºC above the norm. Some scientists say that we have already gone non-linear. If this is true, we’re in serious trouble here on the Planet Earth much sooner than most realize. In that event I give us less than a decade before TSHT proverbial fan. Maybe less. Time will tell.
makati1 on Tue, 10th May 2016 12:11 am
GregT, here in Manila, we have seen 4 straight weeks with temps in the 35C to 37C (95F to 98F) range and only a few brief showers. That is about 3C to 4C above normal, even with an El nino weather pattern. I think we have hit the hockey stick on the temperature rise chart.
dave thompson on Tue, 10th May 2016 12:24 am
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/climatecentral/djOO/~3/wJ0xbopyzWE/see-earths-temperature-spiral-toward-2c-20332
GregT on Tue, 10th May 2016 12:27 am
“The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for March 2016 was the highest for this month in the 1880–2016 record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.32°C / (0.58°F), and marks the highest monthly temperature departure among all 1,635 months on record, surpassing the previous all-time record set just last month by 0.01°C (0.02°F). Overall, the nine highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred in the past nine months. March 2016 also marks the 11th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken, the longest such streak in NOAA’s 137 years of record keeping.”
“The mean March temperature for Australia was the highest in the country’s 107-year period of record, at 1.70°C (3.06°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average.”
“March was warm for Denmark as well, with the monthly temperature 1.7°C (3.1°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average and 0.8°C (1.4°F) higher than the average for 2001–2010.”
“March in Sweden was also warmer than average, with temperatures as much as 3–4°C above the 1961–1990 average in northern Värmland and Dalarna and in Lapland and Västerbotten.”
“In the Arctic, several stations saw March temperatures well above their average, according to Meteorologisk institutt. Jan Mayen and Bear Island were the mildest stations reported here: 3.8°C (6.8°F) and 5.3°C (9.8°F) above normal, respectively. Sveagruva was the coldest station reported here, at -10.0°C (14°F) but was 6.2°C (11.2°F) above normal. Other large departures from average include: Hopen +9.3°C (+16.7°F); Svalbard Airport +8.8°C (15.8°F); and Barentsburg +8.0°C; (+14.4°F). Based on reanalyses by NCEP/NCAR, the March Arctic temperature over land for 66°–90°N overall was 3.34°C (6.01°F) higher than the 1981‐2010 average.”
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603
energyskeptic on Tue, 10th May 2016 12:43 am
This is a really entertaining, interesting, great book, I highly recommend it! I have read so much about these issues for about 16 years now, but there was an amazing amount of material about the history of Hubbert and energy I’d never seen before, Inman really did a lot of research, hope he isn’t dizzy from the microfiche he must have had to read to get some of the information from….
GregT on Tue, 10th May 2016 1:01 am
Worth repeating.
“The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for March 2016 was the highest for this month in the 1880–2016 record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.32°C / (0.58°F)”
At current rates, global mean land and ocean surface temperatures will exceed 1.5ºC by the end of 2016.
And to think that there are still some idiots among us that continue to cheerlead cheap gasoline. (even though it isn’t really cheap at all)
The human race is going to get exactly what we collectively deserve. Sadly.
Apneaman on Tue, 10th May 2016 1:20 am
Fort McMurray wildfire cuts production by a million barrels a day — and oil prices drop?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oilsands-shutdows-oil-market-1.3573863
Apneaman on Tue, 10th May 2016 1:35 am
Chris Martenson has had many highly intelligent guests, so why does he talk to his listeners like they are in grade 3?
Kids, the magic black juice comes from the earth and it makes the shiny car go vroom vroom. Isn’t that amazing? Yes it is yes it is.
dooma on Tue, 10th May 2016 4:04 am
GregT, here down under we continue to receive less than average rainfall and the catchments in my area are around 59.6% full (or empty) and the temperature is still quite warm for this time of year.
There is talk of turning on our large desalination plant if things get worse. As you can imagine, this will require a heap of extra brown coal to be burned releasing a great deal of CO2,NOX,SOX etc into the atmosphere.
AliH on Tue, 10th May 2016 6:19 am
I’m about half way through reading this book and it is really, really good. Easy to read and very interesting.
As energyskeptic says above, Mason Inman has done a lot of research. Many congratulations to him. And of course, Hubbert was one hell of a guy.
I’d highly recommend it!
Sissyfuss on Tue, 10th May 2016 11:33 am
“March Arctic temperature over land for 66-90 degrees N overall was 3.34C (6.01F)
higher than the 1981-2010 average”.Can you say exponential?