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Page added on April 17, 2016
No Deal: Doha Talks End Without Agreement
The most anticlimiatic culmination to the most farcical “agreement” of 2016, one which could have been seen a mile away by any carbon-based trader not housed in a collocated, supercooled facility in Secaucus, has taken place and here is the “shocking” result:
- OPEC, NON-OPEC MINISTERS FINISH OIL TALKS IN DOHA, NO AGREEMENT – RTRS
- OIL PRODUCERS END DOHA TALKS: OMAN MINISTER – BBG
- DOHA OIL TALKS FINISH WITHOUT FREEZE DEAL: NIGERIAN MINISTER – BBG
- OMAN MINISTER SAYS OIL PRODUCERS NEED MORE TIME TO REACH DEAL
Bloomberg has some additional details, even if the endgame had been clear for weeks in advance:
Negotiations between 16 oil producers in Doha ended without any agreement on limiting supplies, a diplomatic failure that threatens to renew the rout in prices.
The summit in the Qatari capital, which dragged on for more than ten hours beyond its initially scheduled conclusion, finished with no final accord, Nigeria’s Petroleum Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu told reporters. Discussions stumbled over whether the agreement should extend to other producers such as Iran, which wasn’t present, according to a person familiar with the matter. The inability to reach consensus will lead to a “severe” drop in prices, Citigroup Inc. predicted before the meeting.
“The Doha meeting was an opportunity for OPEC to polish its tarnished image,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London, said on April 15. “After the failure of OPEC’s December meeting, the market was uneasy about its cohesion and Doha was a chance for the group to reassert its relevance and build a circle of trust.”
The Saudis – which are about to drink everyone’s milkshake – win again, despite so much optimism for a deal ahead of the meeting…
Of course, one has to keep the dream alive, and sure enough the strawman for more headlines is set:
- OIL-PRODUCING NATIONS WILL MEET AGAIN, PROBABLY JUNE: NIGERIA – BBG
Will it once again work to fool the idiot algos, with recurring headlines of another “imminent certain deal”, which will ram the shorts for another 2 months of stop hunts? Probably. The only question is whether Venezuela’s regime will survive for another two months.
What happens next? Again here is Citi’s Ed Morse with the obvious next steps:
If there is no agreement, then expect a sharp oil market sell-off on Monday.
And now we begin counting down the hours until oil opens for trading, pardon, selling unless the BOJ decides it will soak up every last drop on offer.
34 Comments on "No Deal: Doha Talks End Without Agreement"
JuanP on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 1:53 pm
No freeze, https://www.rt.com/news/339979-oil-opec-meeting-qatar/
geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 2:55 pm
Even if their had been a freeze, then the media would have used that against them… So it’s 6 in one hand, half-dozen in the other…
The Media had them set up from the start…
But Russia & Saudi made their points: They are producing at high rates & the coming energy shortage is NOT their fault…
Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 4:57 pm
Gee, I’m shocked, SHOCKED that zerohedge would have a negative, even cynical view of something.
Meanwhile, low oil prices continue to be good for the vast majority of the global economy, even if energy producers don’t like them.
Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 5:01 pm
geo,
What energy shortage. The world is in a oil glut. As always the lowest cost producer will pump the oil.
geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 5:41 pm
Boat; This conversation is a bit over your head…
Makati1 on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:23 pm
“No Deal: Doha Talks End Without Agreement”
No surprise. It was an exercise in futility from the start. If the two biggest suppliers need the cash, the little guys are not going to allow themselves to pay for it by reducing their incomes.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:31 pm
No agreement, as scripted.
This whole production freeze façade never was anything more than a well planned PR stunt.
TPTB would much prefer to be able to continue laying the blame on Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members for “over producing” and “driving the price of oil down” than to admit to the REAL fact: that price is falling because demand is dropping like a rock.
That tends to happen when you severely deplete your resources and add insult to injury by institutionalizing epic wealth transfer on a global scale.
The price of oil is going to drop anyway, and would already be at a much lower price if China hadn’t printed up another trillion$ in credit/debt in Q1/2016, and if this “freeze” PR stunt and an assortment of FED/central bank maneuvers coming out of the G20 meeting hadn’t combined to temporarily drive oil prices up a notch.
Now that this latest burst of financial engineering and accompanying propaganda blast has nearly run its course, oil — and stocks — will no doubt resume their rapid fall from January 2016 that was only temporarily pushed out a little further by coordinated efforts coming out of the G20 meeting.
We’re at the end of the road and all TPTB have left are PR stunts and more debt. Those tricks have done miracles to get us this far since 2008/9, but they aren’t working any more. The illusion has been shattered. That means Big Trouble.
Rick Bronson on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:46 pm
Saudis, Russians and Iranians are all showing their Oil might and this is leaving the Shale in squeeze.
Last week the rig count fell to 351.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/04/15/the-oil-rig-count-downward-trend-continues-in-texas-u-s/
Oil production is declining at the rate of 1% / week which means there should be 50% cut in 1 year.
Rick Bronson on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:07 pm
When and where is the next big meeting.
Next time, please invite the Top-10 multinational oil companies like Shell, Exxon, BP.
And they will happily agree to production cuts because they cannot produce at $40/barrel.
And they can announce big cuts and make the meeting a big success.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:13 pm
Russia disappointed with talks. https://www.rt.com/business/339990-doha-oil-freeze-novak/
Plantagenet on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 8:33 pm
I’m amazed that there are still people who don’t understand that the world is in an oil glut.
Lets try to understand the oil glut concept using math. Lets say the world is consuming X barrels of oil each day. All the airplanes, cars, trucks, heating stoves, etc. use X barrels.
Now lets that the global oil production, taken all together, adds up to X + 1,000,000 barrels per day. Now —do the math. How many extra barrels of oil have to go into storage each day? How many per month? How many bbls over six months?
Thats how an oil glut works—more oil is being produced than can be consumed, so its being put into storage.
Get it now?
Cheers!
Makati1 on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 8:54 pm
Gut, smut. Who gives a damn? Most people don’t know or care how much oil is left or recovered or costs. Only the money obsessed and the BAU forever crowd even think about it. Waste of time, with this being the 6th month in a row of record high temps, famine, floods, droughts and earthquakes splitting an island in Japan. Oil is the least of our worries people.
Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 9:52 pm
mak,
This is an oil discussion site. Some of us prefer to discuss and learn about oil. Start a Peak Doom site. I will drop by and say hi.
Rick Bronson on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 9:53 pm
Yes March 2016 smashed records to become the warmest March month on record.
Many who are concerned will be buying more fuel efficient vehicles to cut down the fuel consumption and yes the Glut will persist.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/record-warmest-march-global-2016
Makati1 on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 10:09 pm
Boat, have you noticed that many of the articles are NOT about oil but about the coming extinction event? Oil is the least of our worries. Who cars what they call the site? If you don’t like the comments/discussions find another place to talk trash.
Rick Bronson on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 10:14 pm
The big question now is if all the 5 million b/d of Shale Oil supply is stopped, what will happen.
Will the OPEC + Russia be able to supply that much on their own. Or that part of supply will be taken over by alternative fuels like Natgas, Biofuels, Electricity, etc.
Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 10:43 pm
rick,
I would think short term prices would spike but long term electricity will rule.
Apneaman on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 11:06 pm
Boat, this is a multi topic peak oil related site.
I have already pointed this out to you before. You know the drop down box on the home page with the various topics. Look in your address bar – see where it says –
peakoil.com/publicpolicy/no-deal-doha-talks-end-without-agreement/
The
/publicpolicy/ means that “public policy” is the topic the article falls under.
If all you want to do is count barrels why not start your own site?
http://www.barrelcounters.tard
Apneaman on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 11:21 pm
Mexico forced to rescue drowning oil giant Pemex
“Pemex, as the oil giant is known, is suffering from a steep decline in production that has been exacerbated by the crash in crude. Years of losses have left Pemex with huge unfunded pension liabilities and on the hook for billions to suppliers.
Things are so bad that this week the Mexican government had to come to the rescue with $4.4 billion in aid for its former cash cow. More financial assistance could be needed soon. That’s not good considering the government relies on Pemex to pay for about a fifth of its budget.”
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/14/investing/mexico-rescue-oil-company-pemex/
twocats on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 11:25 pm
Northwest resident has the truth of it. Its pretty much all you need to know as far as doha and oil prices are concerned.
GregT on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:04 am
@ Boat,
“I would think short term prices would spike but long term electricity will rule.”
You probably ‘would think’ if you had the capacity to do so. You have been provided with more than enough information here to come to informed and rational conclusions.
The fact that you continue to ignore reality, and that you continue to spout total and complete nonsense, is proof positive that you are incapable of intelligent, cognizant, thought.
GregT on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:18 am
Yes twocats, NWR has hit the nail on the head. Once again.
onlooker on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 4:20 am
“Oil is the least of our worries people.”
Yep, in fact with its effect on climate the sooner human civilization can get off its drug of choice the better for all life going into the future.
Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 5:46 am
“Oil is the least of our worries people.” How uninformed can we get. Does someone forget where 7BIL people derive their food calories? Of the 7BIL a portion some romantically think are subsistent farmers and off the grid. These romanticist and apologist forget that subsistence farmers are indirectly supported by oil by being left alone by the others that are fed. These subsistence farmers are a dying breed because of corporate agriculture and corrupt local governments which is fossil fuel driven. These subsistence farmers have the insurance of finding food and work if their crops fail or they lose their land.
In the meantime ALL other humans on this earth rely on oil for food so it is as important as all other issues including climate change. BTW, the biggest issue of climate change is not all the worries about climate change we see greenies discuss it is a failure of the food chain. It is the inability to deliver monoculture crops that have widespread failure because of unstable climate events. It is the failure of the ocean ecosystem to provide fish protein and fish meal for aquaculture. Combine a failing climate with peak oil dynamics and you get a perfect die off storm brewing. So, now do you think oil is the least of our worries?
JuanP on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:24 am
Price of oil drops after Doha, https://www.rt.com/business/340023-oil-talks-doha-prices/
JuanP on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:29 am
I, personally, have never been too concerned with Peak Oil as I have said many times before. This reflects the fact that I am more concerned with the biosphere’s destruction than with people starving. I am of the opinion that if the majority of humans started starving to death now, it would be a blessing for life on Earth.
Anyone particularly concerned with Peak Oil rather than overpopulation, Climate Change, and environmental destruction is a fool who is missing the big picture. Peak Oil is completely irrelevant.
dissident on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:45 am
All of this is just theater until we reach the physical shortages stage. For now the global recession has created a “glut” in supply. But the supply is falling and the global population and long-term energy demand is growing every year. Current oil prices do not reflect the reality of oil production and the long term demand. These prices are manipulated with the aid of mass media propaganda about some “glut” that does not exist. And the myth that the Saudis are pumping “lots more oil” without a shred of evidence to support it. This merry go round of BS will stop once the “glut” evapourates, which is sooner rather than later.
Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:53 am
Fools come in all shapes and sizes. Those who cannot connect the dots and or differentiate the separateness with the biosphere issues and industrial man issues are narrowly focused.
The question was not which is worse for the biosphere. The question was does peak oil dynamics matter more or less for humans. It is a no brained what matters for the biosphere..da. Yet even the biosphere doesn’t care except for the living element. Of course the living element wills a healthy biosphere in some Gaia sense. The geologic element is just seeking balance which it will find eventually with or without humans.
Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:58 am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/russia-frustrated-after-doha-breakdown-how-can-iran-be-reason-failure-when-it-wasnt-
onlooker on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:58 am
I separate it a simpler way. What matter now for humans most is peak oil what will matter the most for humans in 100 years or so will be climate change. That is if they’re are any humans around who it will matter too.
Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 8:31 am
I will buy into that looker but isn’t 100 years too much with all we see unfolding. How about 30 years or less?
Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 10:04 am
So, at 11:00 AM Eastern, oil is down roughly by a whopping dollar.
Given that despite the (usual) doomy panic shown by the ever-wrong zerohedge, it would seem that the markets were largely aware and prepared for this. So we’re not having the giant, wrenching fall in oil prices predicted — at least apparently, since prices were meaningfully lower last night.
As I said, producers don’t like low oil prices, but most of the global economy benefits from them in the short term (it’s bad for AGW and pollution long term).
onlooker on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 10:36 am
I will buy into that Davy, looks closer to 30 years than 100 years.
Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 19th Apr 2016 5:21 pm
SO once again, the constant short term doom meme from zerohedge is wrong. At the close on Tuesday 4/20, both Brent and WTI are higher than they were on Friday.
It seems the markets are paying more attention to news of a Kuwaiti strike than the “failure” at Doha zerohedge is so busy wringing its hands about.
And their specific call of a “sharp sell off” on Monday failed to be realized.
Why is it that anyone pays attention to these guys again? Oh yeah, they tout the constant doom mantra that so many hear love to hear.
Funny how markets like to look at actual events and things like long term supply and projected demand (from credible sources).