North Dakota data from the NDIC is out. Bakken Three/Forks data shown in chart above (NDIC Data) with a Red Queen Model (based on Rune Likvern’s original work) using data gathered from the NDIC by Enno Peters to develop well profiles.
The model uses an estimate of the well profiles based on the NDIC well data. For Feb 2016 ND Bakken/Three Forks output fell by 3 kb/d to 1064 kb/d, Lynn Helms estimates that 63 wells were completed in February. North Dakota output fell 4 kb/d to 1118 kb/d.
Clearly the model has been underestimating output since Sept 2016, I do not have a good explanation, it may be due to variation in the monthly well profiles.
If we assume 63 wells per month are completed each month from March 2016 through Jan 2017 we get the following scenario, output is 840 kb/d in Jan 2017, or 160 kb/d less than the model output in Jan 2016 (1000 kb/d).
A few excerpts from the Director’s cut:
Oil Production
January 34,796,333 barrels = 1,122,462 barrels/day
February 32,431,669 barrels = 1,118,333 barrels/day (preliminary)(all-time high was Dec 2014 at 1,227,483 barrels/day)
1,064,108 barrels per day or 95% from Bakken and Three Forks
54,225 barrels per day or 5% from legacy conventional pools
Producing Wells
January 13,141
February 13,012 (preliminary)(all-time high was Oct 2015 13,190)
10,898 wells or 84% are now unconventional Bakken – Three forks wells
2,114 wells or 16% produce from legacy conventional pools
Permitting
January 78 drilling and 0 seismic
February 70 drilling and 1 seismic
March 56 drilling and 4 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)
ND Sweet Crude Price
January $21.13/barrel
February $18.07/barrel
March $26.62/barrel
Today $31.25/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
Rig Count
January 52
February 40
March 32
Today’s rig count is 29 (lowest since October 2005 when it was 29)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
Comments:
The drilling rig count fell 12 from January to February, 8 from February to March, and 3 more from March to today. Operators are committed to running the minimum number of rigs while oil prices remain at current low levels. The number of well completions fell from 71(final) in January to 63(preliminary) in February. Oil price weakness is the primary reason for the slow-down and is now anticipated to last into at least the third quarter of this year and perhaps into the second quarter of 2017. There was 1 significant precipitation event, 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and 0 days with temperatures below -10F.
Over 98% of drilling now targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.
The estimated number of wells waiting on completion services is 9072, down 38 from the end of January.
The estimated inactive well count is 1,439.
Plantagenet on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 5:30 pm
Interesting to see how well Bakken production is holding up, in spite of the collapse in oil prices due to the oil glut. I would’ve guessed that Bakken production would collapse very quickly at the current price of oil.
Cheers!
geopressure on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 6:05 pm
As of February 2016, Crude-by-Rail volumes exiting the Bakken Play had fallen by 42% from the peak in late 2015 – early 2015…
geopressure on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 6:08 pm
Here’s the disclaimer from the “Director’s Cut” cited above:
The number of wells waiting on completions is an estimate on the part of the director based on idle well count and a typical five year average. Neither the State of North Dakota, nor any agency officer, or employee of the State of North Dakota warrants the accuracy or reliability of this product and shall not be held responsible for any losses caused by this product. Portions of the information may be incorrect or out of date. Any person or entity that relies on any information obtained from this product does so at his or her own risk.
Apneaman on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 6:30 pm
Hooray for the cancer!
Frackers are true patriots!
Frackers are the most generous cancer monkeys around
They share their cancer both locally and globally.
Poison air, poison water, poison foetuses and tons of heat trapping methane (can always use more of that) and more earthquakes than you can shake a stick at.
Hooray for the cancer!
MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE! MORE!
Fracking wells released over 5 billion pounds of methane in one year
“Being in close proximity to fracking operations could screw up your sexual health, cause developmental defects and cancer, induce seismic activity around you, and the list goes on.
Does all that doom and gloom seem, well, a little vague? An Environment America report released Thursday offers raw numbers, based on a set of industry-reported data going back for more than decade.
Frackers, the report concludes, have used billions of pounds of cancer-causing chemicals in at least 137,000 wells from 2005 to 2015, including:
• 5 billion pounds of hydrochloric acid, a caustic acid
• 1.2 billion pounds of petroleum distillates, which can irritate the throat, lungs and eyes; cause dizziness and nausea; and can include toxic and cancer-causing agents
• 445 million pounds of methanol, which is suspected of causing birth defects
Remember, that’s according to the industry’s own numbers. Not necessarily all of this is affecting drinking water, but some chemicals have made their way into private wells. For example, Pennsylvania officials found 260 instances of private well contamination from fracking in the past decade — a “severe” underestimation, says Environment America.”
http://grist.org/article/fracking-wells-released-over-5-billion-pounds-of-methane-in-one-year/
Fracking’s Total Environmental Impact Is Staggering, Report Finds
“Fracking, a form of extraction that injects large volumes of chemical-laced water into shale, releasing pockets of oil and gas, has been on the rise in the United States for the past decade, and the sheer numbers are staggering. Environment America reports that at least 239 billion gallons of water — an average of three million gallons per well — has been used for fracking. In 2014 alone, fracking created 15 billion gallons of wastewater. This water generally cannot be reused, and is often toxic. Fracking operators reinject the water underground, where it can leach into drinking water sources. The chemicals can include formaldehyde, benzene, and hydrochloric acid.
Fracking is also bad news for the climate. Natural gas is 80 percent methane, which traps heat 86 times more effectively than CO2 over a 20-year period. Newly fracked wells released 2.4 million metric tons of methane in 2014 — equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of 22 coal-fired power plants.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/14/3768993/environment-america-fracking-report/
Fracking by the Numbers
The Damage to Our Water, Land and Climate
from a Decade of Dirty Drilling
http://environmentamerica.org/sites/environment/files/reports/Fracking%20by%20the%20Numbers%20vUS.pdf
onlooker on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 6:48 pm
In any planet with a semblance of sanity, we would have never chosen fracking and its marginal utility to society considering all the environmental ills it has ushered in and is ushering in. But of course this planet is far far from sane.
geopressure on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 6:53 pm
It would be nice if they would ban fracking… nice for me at least, I don’t know about the rest of America…
Boat on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 9:52 pm
geo,
Don’t look for N Dakota to track DUCTs because they……wait for it ……. they don’t.
You have to google for a site that does.
Anonymous on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 12:49 am
7.5% decline since July is about 12% per year. For the first year after peak that is not ‘little’, it would be a cause for panic in a conventional field.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:29 am
Anonymous,
Fracking isnt dropping production for lack of oil. Frackers just can’t compete with Iraq, Iran and many other cheaper producers. Lets say they went to war and their production dropped. at $150 oil fracking would roar once again. Just the way it is.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:29 am
Anonymous,
Fracking isnt dropping production for lack of oil. Frackers just can’t compete with Iraq, Iran and many other cheaper producers. Lets say they went to war and their production dropped. at $150 oil fracking would roar once again. Just the way it is.
GregT on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:41 am
At $150/bbl oil Kevin, modern industrial society goes bye bye. Much faster than it already is.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 2:10 am
” modern industrial society goes bye bye”
Where have I heard that before. What is that a $1,000 more a year? $2,000? No Problem.
makati1 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 2:16 am
Boat, no, it is deciding whether to eat or use oil products. What would YOU chose? Your narrow minded ignorance is showing again.
GregT on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 2:20 am
That’s right Kevin. Oil prices at five times what they are today equates to $1000 or $2000 more per year.
Amazing how we always end up back at the same place. Fuck are you ever stupid.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 2:32 am
mak,
http://www.hybridcars.com/40-percent-of-ford-models-to-be-electrified-by-2020/
If oil does jump for whatever reason there will be choices. Consumers will choose the over all cheapest product over the life of the car. It aint rocket science.
GregT on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 2:38 am
If oil does jump for whatever reason, all products made from oil will also jump in price, including those ‘cars’ that are already more expensive than ICE vehicles.
It ain’t rocket science, it’s grade school arithmetic.
makati1 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 5:43 am
Boat, why do you insist that they will even HAVE a car? Millions don’t and never will. Millions more are not able to afford to replace the one they have when it quits or even repair it. And, I am speaking of the Us, not China.
Consider that there are about ~1 billion cars in the world. There are 7+ billion people. Obviously a car is NOT a necessity to live.
I have three American friends ages 30s to 40s, who never owned or ever will own a car. It is an unnecessary expense that they cannot afford or prefer to spend their money on other better investments. A car is a depreciation asset, just like a home, but at least you can live in a home that the bank and government is renting to you.
makati1 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 5:47 am
BTW: Ford may not even exist in 2020. There are very dark days ahead, my young learner. Electric 40%? LMAO
Davy on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 6:15 am
“Saudi Prince Says He Could Add a Million Barrels Immediately”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-16/saudi-prince-says-he-could-add-a-million-barrels-immediately
“The world’s largest oil exporter could increase output to 11.5 million barrels a day immediately and go to 12.5 million in six to nine months “if we wanted to,” Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also Chairman of the Supreme Council of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said in an interview Thursday. The country pumped 10.2 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
JuanP on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 7:59 am
Russia does not expect an oil price rise after Doha meeting
https://www.rt.com/business/339712-russia-oil-prices-opec/
makati1 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 8:27 am
JuanP, I don’t think any of them do. There will be no freeze on oil selling or production. It’s a race to the bottom.
Kenz300 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 9:53 am
Frackers are going broke…….slowly……..
Canadian tar sands production continues backed by deep pockets……..
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 10:39 am
mak,
Millions live without electricity and always have. There is plenty of oil. What is the relevance of those without cars.
denial on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 12:15 pm
If oil goes to those prices would we then have an inflation of currencies instead of the opposite that we are having now? Aren’t we actually playing monopoly without the rules right now anyway…the FED gave trillions of dollars to europe in 09 and then it was just written off…talking about oil in relation to the US dollar is like talking about..peak beards..shit I don’t know it is so ephemeral …
denial on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 12:17 pm
my point is we have no idea how this game is played because we are not in the game…they are doing whatever they want and you….we are trying to analyze it by the rules we know….but they PTB are playing by there own rules….
FloridaGirl on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 12:49 pm
I’ve seen Rockman say it takes about 6 months after well completion before production starts. So if you take the Bakken Scenario graph above, and shift the # of new wells line about 7 months to the right, it pretty well lines up with the production line as far as the bumps go. So February’s flat spot appears to reflect the increase from about 120 wells to about 135 7 months earlier. Now consider what happens 6 months later when we have only about 1/3 as many new wells countering the decline of existing wells.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:00 pm
FloridaGirl,
Iran is ramping up oil production as fast as the frackers shut down. No end to the glut in sight.
Kenz300 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 2:42 pm
Canadian tar sands are the dirtiest and most environmentally damaging fuels……….. yet the Koch brothers keep producing more…………
farmboy on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 9:38 pm
If Kenz and all the other blamers would have quit using petroleum derived products and services years ago the Koch Brothers would have no market for that goo.
Same goes for pesticides and all the other chemicals used in food production. As long as people keep buying that poisoned grub, it will be produced.