US shale oil peak in 2015

12 Comments on "US shale oil peak in 2015"

Rick Bronson on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 8:51 pm 



Last week the US Oil production dipped below 9 million barrels / day mark.

Mainly because of the dip in shale oil where the depletion rates exceed 40 %.

OPEC has achieved what they want. But still a long way to go.

Ralph on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 10:59 pm 



The (slightly) premature death of US shale oil was entirely self-inflicted. It is some of the most expensive oil on the planet to extract, of relatively low energy content, and funded on massive amounts of cheap debt, which will never be repaid. In a couple of years, when global stocks have fallen back to normal levels, $100 oil will be back and SA will be able to charge what they like for their declining supply, secure in the knowledge that shale oil will never flood the market again.

rockman on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 6:15 am 



Yes: the KSA achieved its goal. If that goal was to see a revenue decrease of $200 BILLION PER YEAR. LOL. I still find it amazing that so many hang the situation of “market share” without explaining what the primary goal of gaining market share would be: improving income by taking sales away from other producers. Selling ones inventory below replacement costs is NOT going after market share…it’s liquidating assets for the sake of generating a minimum income level. Somehow many folks think it’s worth $200 BILLION PER YEAR for the KSA to have bragging rights about market share.

And no: the KSA will never able to charge what they like for oil…they’ve never had the ability and never will. The buyers (the refineries) estimate what they can sell their products for and still make an acceptable profit. Based upon those projections they set the price of oil. The refineries cannot force consumers to pay more than they are willing/able to pay. The only effect the KSA can have on oil pricing is how much oil they are willing to sell. And what will happen when prices recover? The shales will be drilled again and the development of the oil sands will continue. Why wouldn’t they: both plays developed from a pricing period identical to the one we’re currently going thru.

Kenz300 on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 9:55 am 



Climate Change is real….. we will all be impacted by it.

Oil Giants Spend $115 Million A Year To Oppose Climate Policy

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/oil-companies-climate-policy_us_570bb841e4b0142232496d97

New Documents Show Oil Industry Even More Evil Than We Thought

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/oil-cover-up-climate_us_570e98bbe4b0ffa5937df6ce

Kenz300 on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 9:58 am 



High cost producers like shale and tar sands can not compete with the low cost of production from KSA……..

The tar sands in Canada have the deep pockets of the Koch brothers supporting them so they can hang on for a long time……… tar sands are the highest cost producers and should have left the market a long time ago………..

twocats on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 11:01 am 



Also Kenz, we are finding that a lot of these officially bankruptcy-filed companies are continuing to operations. Or are otherwise being run by the creditors that have taken over, who can wipe out non-secured or minor creditors and simply extract any remaining profits from existing and active wells.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-14/more-energy-defaults-energy-xxi-files-chapter-11-gulf-keystone-delays-bond-payment

Granted they probably aren’t developing a lot of new wells, so at some point depletion will set in, but I think people keep expecting the bottom to fall out of shale producers, but if BANKRUPTCY can’t even stop production, I really fail to see how we will have a production rate falling more than 30k to 100k (depending on the area) month over month going forward. Which means we are probably talking another year or so of oversupply. I wouldn’t be surprised if oil goes to $10/barrel before the summer is out.

Darian S on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 12:24 pm 



“The refineries cannot force consumers to pay more than they are willing/able to pay.”

There is a clear limit, but if the market doesn’t provide sources at reasonable prices, it is not like the world’s consumers can just say no to oil. Unless the price is so high that it collapses the economy, the consumers will be forced to pay a price however high they can afford even if unwilling.

twocats on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 1:27 pm 



so rock, if the fields were developed during “a similar pricing scheme” why are bankruptcies at record highs? to talk about rising oil prices (or what the consumer will be forced to pay blah blah blah), or shale becoming “profitable” (again? for the first time?) at this point is laughable. Yes in 2020 this might be an issue. but for now, it’s all zombie all the time.

Apneaman on Thu, 14th Apr 2016 10:34 pm 



Oh the irony.

Scientists Find Trigger That Cracks Lakes

Fast-draining lakes atop Greenland ice sheet could accelerate sea level rise

“Thousands of these supraglacial lakes form on the ice sheet each spring as sunlight returns to Greenland after long dark winters and begins to melt snow and ice. The water streams into depressions in the ice sheet, filling them up to create the lakes. As Earth’s changing climate warms the region and creates more lakes, would that lead to more cracks, faster-flowing ice sheets, and faster-rising sea levels?

But in 2008, the scientists found only that these cracks, called hydrofractures, did occur. How they formed remained a mystery. Before scientists could predict more precisely how supraglacial lakes might affect sea level rise as climate conditions shift in the future, they needed to uncover the mechanisms that triggered the cracks.”

https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/scientists-find-trigger-that-cracks-lakes

shortonoil on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 6:53 am 



“so rock, if the fields were developed during “a similar pricing scheme” why are bankruptcies at record highs?”

It doesn’t appear that they did develop during a similar pricing scheme. The cost of crude as a percentage of GDP has risen by 61%:

Output from EtpPro-Production:

1960 – 2005
Total 46 years
Crude cost as % of GDP – 2.02
GDP/ $ of crude – 56.13
2005 – 2014
Total 10 years
Crude cost as % of GDP – 3.26
GDP / $ of crude – 30.76

The world is now expending a much larger portion of its entire output than it ever has to produce petroleum. Relative costs have increased substantially.

peakyeast on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 9:03 am 



Shale shows its true face: A last resort resource with all of the downside and little of the upside.

Kenz300 on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:36 am 



Trying to Put a Price on Big Oil’s ‘Climate Obstruction’ Efforts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-07/trying-to-put-a-price-on-big-oil-s-climate-obstruction-efforts