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Page added on April 13, 2016
‘Peak Oil’ Not Until 2035
The world will begin to wean itself off its reliance on oil starting in about 20 more years. According to Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge, the world will hit peak oil in 2035.
The global crude oil supply glut, as well as the rise of electric vehicles, slowing growth in China and increases in fuel efficiency have some investors turning permanently bearish on oil. However, Beveridge believes oil demand could soon begin heading in the opposite direction.
“Despite these uncertainties, a key conclusion from our analysis is that demand growth through 2020 could well be stronger than the previous decade with growth of 1.4% CAGR,” Beveridge explains.
Related Link: Oil Prices Jump 6% On Surprise U.S. Drawdown, But World Bank Sees Limited Upside In 2016
While Beveridge acknowledges peak oil demand will likely hit up to five years before peak supply, both events are far enough into the future that they are insignificant compared to the near-term opportunities for oil investors.
“Peak oil” was once a hot topic on Wall Street during the days of the oil boom, but Google Trends data indicates the idea is no longer on the public’s radar.
So far in 2016, the United States Oil Fund LP
USO 0.19%
is down another 4.9 percent.
Bernstein sees North American E&P stocks as the biggest beneficiaries to rising oil prices in the next several years and names ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy Corp among its top Outperform-rated oil picks.
9 Comments on "‘Peak Oil’ Not Until 2035"
Pennsyguy on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 3:16 pm
By 2035 the average American will weigh 400 pounds (men will be heavier) and drive a 12 cylinder car.
geopressure on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 3:35 pm
Peak oil has yet to arrive, that is for sure… 2035 is probably a pretty good guess…
Davy on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 3:53 pm
By 2035 Ethiopians of today will weigh more than Americans of 2035. The cars that are around in 2035 will be stripped versions adapted to be pulled by horses and or people (slaves).
Apneaman on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 4:12 pm
How Bad Is Canada’s Oil Bust? Try the Worst Spending Drop in 70 Years
http://www.fool.ca/2016/04/13/how-bad-is-canadas-oil-bust-try-the-worst-spending-drop-in-70-years/
Denial on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 7:12 pm
Peak oil has already happened….we are on a slow downward trajectory….wake up!!
Azurean on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 7:46 pm
Its look like we’re back on the political trajectory towards the bad old days of nationalism/tribalism instead of the brief bit of cosmopolitanism caused by globalism.
During our lives we get to experience the transition from a information age economy back to something only moderately more advanced than the Amish due to energy constraints; or at least technology that is utterly dependent on large inputs of energy will get phased out.
Except for very small numbers of people, you will be inherently tied to the agricultural land you were born on.
At the very least we won’t really have to worry about what happens in Asia or Europe ever again because the interlocking global system will break down into regionalism.
makati1 on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 8:16 pm
2035:
1. The Us will not exist as a country or even 50 separate states.
2. Europe will be a lot of small countries again, or maybe 100s of small tribes.
3. The Saudis will all be riding camels and trying to find water.
4. The cities will be decaying hulks, abandoned years before as unlivable.
5. The human population will be back under one billion and maybe only a few million.
6. There will be large radioactive areas due to reactor meltdowns/huge stockpiles of radioactive materials.
Etc.
This is based on the chance that the nukes didn’t fly. At this point a very small chance.
THERE! I can predict 20 years in the future as well as any author or economist. Send my check, please.
LMAO
Rick Bronson on Wed, 13th Apr 2016 9:45 pm
As the American Shale production goes down, the Iran/Iraq conventional crude oil production goes up.
But how long will their conventional crude sustain is a big question.
Someday OPEC will officially accept that the conventional crude has PEAKED.
Kenz300 on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 8:25 am
100% electric transportation and 100% solar by 2030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k