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Kunstler: The Uses of Disorder
Many thoughtful and patriotic citizens entering the Kubler-Ross free-fire zone of desperate bargaining with reality are at work attempting to chart an orderly course around the Godzilla-like figure of Trump looming outside the desecrated once-shining city of American democracy. I doubt there is such an orderly way through this political bad weather. When storms hit, things break up.
It can be argued endlessly whether times produce the man or vice versa, but except in the most schematic and wishful sense, is there any question that Donald Trump is unfit for the office he’s seeking? Personally, I am tortured by the question: why him? Why this vulgarian who can’t string together two sequentially coherent thoughts? Are there in this land of 320 million-plus people no other men or women with comfortable fortunes and better minds bold enough to take on the matrix of mafias running our affairs into the ground? Apparently not.
Then there is the question — only nascently theoretical at this point — of where such an orderly course of decision and action might lead this country. For Trump, it seems to be a restoration of the 1950s, when armies of “breadwinner” factory workers churned out cornucopias of Maytag washers and Zenith black-and-white televisions, and the less numerous Wogs of the outside world busied themselves with basket-weaving, and Atoms For Peace would make electric power “too cheap to meter,” and popular entertainment came in the chaste form of Dinah Shore urging the upward-aspiring masses to “see the USA in your Chevrolet!”
That was, of course, the time of Trump’s childhood (and my own), and if there is anything more certain than night following day, it is that America is not going back to that sunny moment. Trump and I are way past done growing up as human organisms and America is done growing as a techno-industrial political economy. People decline and die and are replaced by new people, and political economies wither and morph into sets of new activities and relations.
The forces of history want to take us to this new disposition of things, and just about everything on the American scene these days is a manifestation of resistance to that journey. The destination is a much re-scaled and down-scaled edition of daily life in a de-globalized economy, with far fewer luxuries and a greater demand for earnestness, purposeful work, generosity-of-spirit, and plain dealing. These are not qualities exhibited by Trump, who represents only the poorly-articulated and grandiose wish to “make America great again.”
The institutional collapse of the Republican Party is in full swing now thanks to Trump. By the way, it could easily be matched by an equally brutal collapse of the Democratic Party if the head of the FBI makes any criminal referrals in the matter of the Clinton Foundation’s entanglements in official State Department business via an email slime trail. It would be an awesome and wondrous event if the nation landed on November 8 with both parties in complete disarray and more than a couple of rump factions posting candidates with dubious legitimate credentials to stand for election. In over two hundred years we have not seen a national election postponed, or canceled.
I’ll repeat my assertion that professional observers on the political scene appear oblivious to the financial shit-storm gathering out-of-sight of land, and how it might affect electoral events at landfall. There’s a fair chance that six months from now, the USA may be in some kind economic emergency, with the banks either disabled or shuttered, and businesses unable to transact with one another, and the just-in-time supply lines to America’s Big Box merchandise depots badly interrupted, with the shelves bare. Americans at large, lost in the their cell phone app raptures and Kardashian masturbation fantasies have no idea how fragile the systems they depend on are.
America is going to learn something about the uses of disorder before this year is out. One of these is to compel the construction of a coherent consensus as to what is actually happening in the world, apart from our wishes and fantasies. That is, if we are not torn apart in the process of getting to that.
31 Comments on "Kunstler: The Uses of Disorder"
brianr on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 4:20 pm
” There’s a fair chance that six months from now, the USA may be in some kind economic emergency, with the banks either disabled or shuttered….etc”
This is quite a bold statement, and it makes me wonder how Mr. Kunstler has rationally come to this conclusion. I hope Winter was not too hard on him, resulting in depression. I would appreciate any rational supporting thoughts regarding this prediction.
Apneaman on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 4:36 pm
All Hollowed Out
The lonely poverty of America’s white working class
“But in the late ’90s—the beginning of the crisis period that Case and Deaton identify—the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. dropped dramatically. Intensified by free-trade deals such as NAFTA, the hollowing-out of American industry then was much greater, in terms of the absolute number of jobs lost, than what the country experienced during its first wave of deindustrialization.
Twenty years ago, union membership—in decline since the ’60s—fell to a level not seen since the Great Depression. For various reasons, it became much harder to pursue the sorts of collective action that unions once cultivated throughout the economy—that is, banding together to convince companies and governments to treat employees better. Free trade and automation undercut the bargaining positions of the working class. Political leaders, bankrolled by the wealthy, rolled back the interventionist policies of the New Deal and postwar period. Corporations, once relatively tolerant of unions, tapped a cottage industry of anti-union consultants and adopted unseemly tactics to crush any organizing drives in their workplaces.
As organized labor in this country has withered, an extreme individualism has stepped in as the alternative—a go-it-alone perspective narrowly focused on getting an education and becoming successful on one’s own merit. This works well for some, but for others—especially the two-thirds of Americans over the age of 25 who don’t have a bachelor’s degree—it often means getting mired in an economy of contract work, low pay, and few, if any, benefits. These prospects suggest that this is an age of diminished expectations for the working class.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/white-working-class-poverty/424341/
It’s kinda sad to see these people cling to Trump as if he is their daddy and they are scared little kids with a boo boo. He’s like a Christ figure to some of them. I have yet to hear any supporter question how exactly Trump is going to be able to force corporations to move their manufacturing plants back to the US. An idea that is totally absurd to any sane person with a basic understanding of capitalism. Yet many believe everything he says. This is a prime example of the ape brain needing hope any hope no matter how far fetched or they won’t get out of bed. Apes need stories and the stories can be pure bullshit as long as it’s hopeful bullshit millions are buying a ticket. These Trump supporters are legion and I have even heard some say they were formerly left leaning/voting. It comes down to the economics. If the majority of these people were making bank like a their parents and grand parents a guy like Trump wouldn’t get the time of day. When I call out marmi and boat or any of the corns these people are exactly what I’m talking about. They don’t appear on any of those FED charts and graphs and that’s intentional – they been statically disappeared. We all know they are there. You see them in your country and I see them in mine and as long as TPTB and their enablers (marmi, boat, MSM, bureaucrats, etc) keep pretending everything is normal the problem will continue to balloon and it will burst and when it does it will be bloody. Trump is an expected by product of the intentional impoverishment and abandonment of the former worker-middle class. A by product of neo liberal globalization.
J-Gav on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 4:47 pm
brianr – It is a bold statement – and one that I would not make – even if I did exactly that in 2007, and turned out to be right.
I didn’t have the horse-power to be listened to then (other than by a few of my students from multi-national companies who were engaged in negotiating with banks, investing corporate funds in derivatives, FX, etc). They didn’t call me crazy – my colleagues did. Some of them thanked me for my advice – and I was just their English teacher.
Well, I have even less horse-power today, but would nevertheless venture that there are some ‘rational supporting thoughts’ which point in the general direction of Mr Kunstler’s arguments. For example, when it comes to extractive industries, peak societal complexity or eco-system destruction (not to mention CO2 and CH4 emissions) what is unsustainable will not be sustained – punto e basta – à la Overshoot!
Putting a date on that is another matter entirely. In other words, it seems clear to me that humanity is ‘cruising for a bruising,’ but I don’t believe anyone can say : “It’s for this year, next year or the year after” with any degree of certainty. Of course it would still make sense to prepare for ‘eventualities’ before they’re upon us in full force. Unfortunately, ‘making sense’ does not appear to be the strong suit of our present polities/policies.
energy investor on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 4:54 pm
Yes J-Gav, the only thing bold is the forecast timing. But I predicted the GFC 12 months in advance and wasn’t the only one. I have already gone on record to estimate the chance of collapse by end 2016 at around 55% and if not this year, then a growing likelihood of collapse to 95% by 2020.
The idea of “cometh the hourm cometh the man” could be far more palatable if the man was someone credible… lol
Plantagenet on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 5:08 pm
Who is the Green Party nominating for President this year?
Cheers!
Anonymous on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 5:16 pm
You know Apneaman, it is entirely possible that americant FTA’s were expressely designed with the purpose of destroying unions in North America. FTA’s certainly have managed to undermine them in a major way haven’t they? A lot of discussion about FTA’s tend to focus on off-shoring, to exclusion of much else. But if (one) of the goals is to destroy unions and dismantle worker and environmental protections, I can think of few better ways to do this, in a way that does not lead mass protests among the general population, than though the use of FTA’s.
If you examine the neo-liberal rhetoric of ‘free-trade’, we find none the supposed claims and benefits materialize. In fact, the opposite occurs. Wages stagnate, jobs are lost-not gained. What actually happens under american FTA’s is so diametrically opposed to what its proponents claim *will* happen, it becomes hard to believe that any of it is by accident.
Apneaman on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 5:22 pm
Planty, is there a green party in the US? You a Trump admirer or still got the vapours over Justin?
It’s A Bird… It’s A Plane… It’s SuperTard….
Trump’s Presidential Campaign Is Straight Out of Hollywood
He starred in a TV reality show, but Donald Trump’s ascent is based on two classic movie archetypes.
“And when Trump poses as the strongman who can solve any problem and defeat any foe through the force of his personality, he fits the mold of the superhero for whom politics is a messy obstacle. This is the authoritarian appeal that analysts have found in Trump: He will get things done. He’ll build a wall. He’ll deport undocumented immigrants. He’ll destroy ISIS. He’ll tell China where to get off. That’s not a political platform. It’s the plot of a Marvel movie.”
http://billmoyers.com/story/trumps-presidential-campaign-is-straight-out-of-hollywood/
Bart on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 6:08 pm
Trump is Batman fighting the evil vampiric squid that has taken over the whole world. I say good riddance. He is the manifestation of poverty of white people who have had enough. Run! Run! lol
GregT on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 7:01 pm
Planter,
Could it be Jill Stein?
“We are being battered by unemployment, inequality, poverty, injustice, endless war, impending climate catastrophe, and a broken, corrupt political system.
There are solutions for all these problems, but they’re being blocked by political parties that serve the corporate elite, not the people.
We need a new way forward that puts people, planet and peace over profit.
My campaign is dedicated to empowering the American people to make real the promise of democracy, and set our own course toward a brighter future.”
http://www.jill2016.com
No true blooded American patriot would ever vote for a platform like that. She sounds like a pinko commie.
makati1 on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 7:11 pm
“I am growing convinced by the day that Donald Trump’s pursuit of the Presidency will likely be the spark that brings on martial law and ends with civil war. George Soros and his criminal organizations, such as Moveon.org and Black Lives Matter, et al., have demonstrated that they will go to any lengths to stop Donald Trump. Soros’ tactics, on behalf of the criminal elite have not worked. If anything, Soros has driven even more American citizens into the Trump camp with their reprehensible tactics predicated on violence.
If Trump has the nomination stolen from him, there will be, as Trump himself has stated, riots! If Donald Trump is assassinated, there will be riots in every major American city. The coming GOP convention is promising to make the 1968 Democratic Convention look like an elementary school recess in comparison.”
http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2016/03/20/will-donald-trumps-candidacy-be-the-catalyst-for-civil-war-the-establishment-is-preparing/
Food for thought…
paulo1 on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 7:31 pm
Well said Apneaman re: attacks on Unions.
People need to remind themselves how far the workingman has come, thanks to Unions. Where I live, in the early 1900’s they used steam trains to haul logs out of the bush. The old grades are everywhere. If someone was killed on the job, they placed the body behind a stump and then carried it out with the men on the last run down. When I see how Weyerhauser and Western treat contract workers today, they are taking two steps back towards those same conditions. If they could, they would do anything to increase profits.
Battles fought 50+ years ago are having to be fought all over again. “Don’t like to do your job the way we tell you, then we’ll move the fucking plant to Thailaand or Mexico.”
Just recently in Vancouver a contractor got off his criminal charges on a technicality for knowingly exposing his renovation workers to asbestos, over and over again despite previous directions from Worksafe BC. Unbelieveable.
What chance does a family supporter have against a Bain Capital that rapes and pillages his company, finally shutting it down after bleeding it dry? None, of course, just they way Wall Street likes it.
bug on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 7:56 pm
Paulo, I bet that family still voted for
Mitt. Remember, he was told unions are bad and communistic, pull your self up, Obama is mean and dems are the party of blacks and gimme.
Well, they voted for it, they got it.
Josh on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 8:27 pm
Hey all… I just stumbled onto this site after watching the “Collapse” documentary. All I can say is that I’m disturbed. I realize that the wasteful society we’ve built is unsustainable, but do you guys see any positive path forward in terms of proposed alterations to our socioeconomic constructs? Is solar and wind viable, or a band aid on a gaping wound? Just looking for realistic, positive points of view from people who know what they’re talking about.
Davy on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 8:54 pm
Josh, there are paths forward less negative that is the positive. Alternative energy is only a Band-Aid but a necessary one. We are facing a catch 22 predicament that is an existential trap of our own construction. The question is how long, how hard and when the break will occur. This is more or less important depending on your age. Stick around and you will learn many things from many competent people that visit our board.
geopressure on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 9:04 pm
Interesting documentary “Collapse”… He says the same stuff about Iraq that I’ve been saying for the last two years (the Kurdish Reserves)…
The guy does not understand geology though… just because the Saudis hare drilling offshore does not mean that they are out of new reserves on land… Offshore wells have higher flow rates (or usually do) due to the nature of basins & the youngest rocks being in the middle & often underwater…
Young, unconsolidated sediments mean that the pore fluids support a portion of the overburden, not to mention the astronomical permeabilities…
Look at the Miocene of the GoM: 150′ feet of Net Pay can make a 30,000 BOPD Well… Whereas 150′ feet of Net Pay in Jurassic or Cretaceous Sediments of the Onshore Gulf Coast will only make 1/10th of that rate at the absolute max – the state regulatory agencies would never allow that though…
That’s why the Saudi’s moved offshore… because they can routinely drill 10,000+ BOPD Wells…
geopressure on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 9:06 pm
I agree with the guy on a lot of his points in the Documentary, but we are running out of oil… Global Production is no where near the peak…
This summer, however, Demand will be greater than supply & this might confuse a lot of people…
Most people will believe whatever the media tells them to believe though…
But we are no where near peak global production rates…
onlooker on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 9:44 pm
Josh, good for you that you are wishing to awaken to the predicament of all of us humans on Earth. As for positive outlooks, here is what I offer. Humanity is on a fast track to a huge correction meaning die-off. The size of the world population combined with worsening environmental factors points unequivocally to this. However, if you and your descendants are lucky enough to pass this bottleneck, it may be that the the remaining humans will be a much more united, sane, spiritual people and that you or your descendants life will have a meaning that most currently in this world can scarcely appreciate or contemplate. You will be a truly important part of a supporting group.
GregT on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 10:22 pm
Josh,
Our current socioeconomic model is not sustainable. How long it takes to break down or how bad it will get, is anyone’s guess. Consider the time right now to be an opportunity to better position yourself towards a sustainable future. That opportunity is not going to be available forever. Listen to, watch, and read everything that you can, so that you can make an informed decision as to what you think makes the most sense for you. Above all, keep your head up. You are already miles ahead of the vast majority of people. Most will be completely blindsided and totally unprepared when things really start to go south.
salinsky on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 10:27 pm
The Kuntmeister has been making his living writing about the end of civilization, and is now tortured at the thought of Trump leading us to ruin? Who does he want to lead us there? That POS Sanders? A man who calls himself a non-practicing jew. What the hell is a non-practicing jew?
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 11:51 pm
Good think JHK isn’t paying too much attention to Israeli politics. That shit’ll fuck you up.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 12:39 am
I need help visualizing the looming Bubba Trump riots. They will break Coors Beer Bottles over each other’s heads? They will drive monster trucks thru the Starbux plate glass? Their militia will shoot into the air? They will fumigate city hall with their ‘rolling coal’ modified diesels? Make Molotov cocktails out of Fireball bottles? Burn their welfare checks? Demand the government stay out of their unemployment checks? Will they burn down the local Discount Auto Parts? Will they throw old couches by the side of the road?
I just don’t know how this redneck riot will appear in practice. Help me understand.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 12:46 am
Non practicing jew? Goes to Bentley dealer, negotiates the price down to wholesale. Then abruptly pays full list price and drives it home.
bug on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 5:11 am
Go, I think you explained it perfectly.
They will also take breaks to go to all you can eat buffets. Rioting needs calories to burn.
Cloud9 on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 9:12 am
I agree with much of what Kunstler writes. I do take exception to the never ending prattle about the United States being a democracy. We were never a democracy. The founders loathed the idea of democracy because they were wise enough to know that democracy is mob rule. It is the dictatorship of the majority. The unfettered majority is the tool of the tyrant. A mob is an emotional construct with an overwhelming strength in numbers. It destroys whomever its handlers paint as the appropriate scapegoats. By utilizing fear and rage, the tyrant plays the mob to put himself at the pinnacle of absolute power. The sad truth is that we are closer to being a democracy than we have ever been in our history.
We were designed to be a democratic republic. Contrary to the popular propaganda the mob does not elect the president. The president is elected by the Electoral College. The popular election is simply to inform the College of the will of the mob. The actual selection was to be made by the College whose members were made up of electors representing their home states. The Senate as originally designed was to be selected by the various state legislatures. This provision kept the Senate as a representative body for the state legislatures. It was assumed that the self-interest of the individual states would temper the demands of a popular national mob. The House of Representatives was the only truly democratic body in national federal system. It was subjected to rapid turnover having to stand for election every two years. It was assumed that the self-interests of the local state mobs would temper the interests of the national mob.
The Supreme Court was set up as the final arbiter of national power. As part of the grand agreement, the Bill of Rights were to serve the court as the bright line limit on the overreach of mob rule. The Bill of Rights were to protect the ever changing minority from the unlimited demands of an ever changing majority. Regrettably we live in a post Constitutional America. The court has been captured by the oligarchs. Elections are now the tools of the moneyed interests. Propagandists control the national narrative selling the mob the select political tool of the moment. The war on crime and the war on terror have successfully suspended the Constitutional Protections that protected the minority from the majority. Federal judges now embrace this loss of rights by asserting that the Constitution is not a suicide pact. In so doing, the courts no longer serve a purpose beyond maintaining a façade designed to persuade those not impacted that the rule of law still prevails. The courts have by default given the Executive and his minions the authority to summarily execute anyone anywhere to include American Citizens. We are no longer citizens, we are subjects. Our very lives depend on the whims of faceless bureaucrats who have a license to kill. The only reason any of us are alive is that we have not garnished the appropriate bureaucrat’s attention.
The oligarchs now find themselves on the wrong side of history. With a collapsing empire and a contracting economy their control mechanisms are failing. The oligarchs have preached the dogma of democracy so long that it is now part of the national narrative. Now that the Constitutional Republic has collapsed, the demand for democracy is overwhelming. The mob is clamoring for a messiah to deliver us into the hands of the dictatorship of the majority. The oligarchs are terrified that the rabble they have roused may actually gain control. They know that they will be the first targets of the mob’s unrestrained rage. The sad thing is that the rage will not be satiated with the shredding of oligarchs. It will institute a reign of terror unleashed to ferret out all those not like the dictatorship of the majority. Our only hope is that in this ongoing devolution, the dictatorship of the majority will fracture before in its effort to purge the country, it runs up against the second amendment and civil war breaks out.
joe on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 9:32 am
Kunstler, big on poetics, bad on facts. Cant see into his crystal ball, but im sure that the physical collapse of retail banking is not imminent, though internet banking could be what he means. Ive not heard Trump try to trick anyone with 1950s dreams, ive heard himsay he will build a fence that works, just like southern Europe did, he will throw out illegal immigrants who should have stayed home and made their own countries better if they wanted a better life.
Liberals/Globalists have tricked people into thinking that global problems are YOUR problems and only letting millions of illiterates into your country can solve world problems.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 10:15 am
Cloud9,
Excellent post.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 10:22 am
joe,
Sadly, global problems are your problems. Human imaginary lines drawn in the sand are not going to help any of us, anywhere. We’re all in this together, and we’re all going down together. There are no solutions. Get used to it.
Cloud9 on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 5:48 pm
Thanks GT
ennui2 on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 4:56 pm
Another bold prediction From the doomersphere, pretty much pulled out of his ass, and is quite likely to turn out wrong. But as has been stated, his schtick is to be in perma-doom-land and that’s what his readers want to hear, who will then conveniently forget the bad calls, lather, rinse, and repeat.
Welch on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 10:38 pm
Kuntsy predicting economic collapse six months away. What a shocker!
Well, he’s done it for ten years he’s bound to be right eventually.
Davy on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 6:44 am
Kunstler has the problem of predicting a collapse event instead of just highlighting a collapse process. Yes, it is likely we are going to have some crisis events that are part of the collapse process. We could have a “big one” that is a marker event like 2008. We are so quick to forget that 2008 was a “precipice event” that would have taken us to much lower economic levels if QE and ZIRP would not have been applied. We were in uncharted waters. We were also at a crossroads. We chose to extended and pretend instead of bad debt reckoning. The collapse process was pushed out by delaying the rebalance of consumption levels that are unsustainable and destructive.
The 2008 emergency financial efforts were right in the immediate to keep the system going but the open ended nature of those actions were nothing more than extend and pretending away limits and diminishing returns. We created moral hazard and disregard for basic laws. We empowered financial psychopaths both individuals and groups to legally use their greed to gut our basic economic system as parasites do a host. We extended out the bad debt reckoning for their benefit.
Our financial system has fundamentals that eventually must be met. Debt is debt. There are productive assets and activities and those that are not. These fundamentals can be ignored for a time but not indefinitely without wealth transfer and wealth destruction. We know what the wealth transfer is as we watch the middle and lower classes gutted. The wealth destruction is the public domain being gutted for private profit. It is the malinvestment in search of growth and abstract yield at the expense of the real and physical that feeds and shelters all of us.
I challenge anybody to come on here and tell me we are not in a collapse process. I will acknowledge the “big one” collapse event may not happen for years and only after multiple smaller events. Death can come quickly or by a thousand cuts. We can Stair step, tumble down a hill, and or fall off a cliff. All these conditions are descent conditions not growth. We have isolated growth everywhere but that does not mean healthy growth. We have a lot of cancerous growth. Cancer is a killer that grows.
Humans are conditioned creatures. We need crisis to change our routine especially at the macro level. We discount the future for immediate satisfaction. We can rationalize away reality. We have a creative fantasy. All these skills that are so enjoyable in some ways are probably part of our evolutionary dead end. Combine fantasy with deadly technology and what do you get? Modern man.