Peak Oil is You
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Page added on March 1, 2016
Get Set for the 2023 Oil Glut
Another global oil glut could occur as early as 2023, but it will have nothing to do with overzealous Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production; instead, it will be triggered by the next generation of electric cars.
The argument put forth by BloombergBusiness corroborates those made by peak-oil theorists, who favour scrutinizing demand instead of supply and have long held that consumers will ultimately abandon oil for alternate forms of energy, including electric cars.
Despite OPEC in a recent report noting that electric vehicles presently account for only 1/10 of 1 percent of the world’s one billion cars and will only account for 1 percent in 2040, automobile manufacturers are aggressively pushing development, to the point where Tesla and Chevrolet plan to release electric cars that can travel over 200 miles on a single charge and sell in the affordable $30,000 range.
Every year that follows will bring more electric cars to the road, and less demand for oil
Tom Randall, BloombergBusiness
BloombergBusiness writer Tom Randall states, “Even amid low gasoline prices last year, electric car sales jumped 60 percent worldwide; if that level of growth continues, the crash-triggering benchmark of 2 million barrels [per day] of reduced demand could come as early as 2023.”
He adds that by 2040, long-range electric cars will cost less than $22,000 and 35 percent of new cars worldwide will have a plug: “This isn’t something oil markets are planning for.”
However, Randall concedes that “Rising oil demand from developing countries could outweigh the impact of electric cars, especially if crude prices fall to $20 a barrel and stay there.”
Still, he believes the oil crash will come, and “it will be only the beginning: every year that follows will bring more electric cars to the road, and less demand for oil.”
For its part, OPEC in its World Oil Outlook for last December didn’t seem worried about alternative energy usurping oil’s dominance: it predicted that oil and gas will supply around 53 percent of the global energy mix by 2040, while gains in renewable alternative energy – mainly wind, solar, and geothermal – will amount to only a 4.3 percent share.
15 Comments on "Get Set for the 2023 Oil Glut"
onlooker on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 11:58 am
haha, read the title and right away I yawned. Dream on. But if they’re is a glut it will because the world wide economy crashed.
dave thompson on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 12:07 pm
What truly boggles my mind is that the world consumes about 93-96 million bbls per day. So on any given day, there is 93-96 million bbls being pumped at the well head, 93-96 million bbls being shipped/moved to refineries, 93-96 million bbls per day being refined, 93-96 million bbls of refined product shipped to consumers/users to replace the 93-96million bbls being consumed/used as we speak now. How much oil per day is the whole process for one day then? by my calculation there is 465-480 MILLION bbls per day to keep the whole shebang going, oil glut my ass.
Mark on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 12:10 pm
The “electric car saves the day” myth simply won’t die.
rockman on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 12:20 pm
And they convenient forget that the average age of the current rolling stock in the US is 10+ years. And no doubt Americans swap out vehicles more frequently then the rest of the world. No one is going to dump their X year old car, which is paid off and cost nothing but fuel and maintenance, and pay $30k (if it really gets that cheap) for a new car. And they also make the assinine assumption that someone driving a large vehicle would/could swap out for a much smaller ride.
Yeah: I can see a lot of Texans giving up their red neck pickup truck mentality. LOL.
twocats on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 12:43 pm
This article clearly didn’t get the revised propaganda memo – they didn’t mention the Paris Climate Agreement a single time. Get it together… ship and bunker?
Practicalmaina on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 1:13 pm
Could would should, every car should be incorporating carbon fiber. Every car should have dimples like a golf ball for aerodynamics. Motorcycles, scooters bikes should be encouraged.
Pure ev may be 1/10 of a percent (probably already out of datr) but there are a shitload of hybrids. Many of which could have additional EV range added.
If we want the most workable sustainable solution it would be light weight electric rail, with lightweight pv on the roof.
Another large impact that is less cutting edge and trendy. Small ice motors such as those in motorcycles have been getting way better longevity, making it far more practical as a less carbon intensive form of transportation.
Pennsyguy on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 1:41 pm
There are no limits to what humans may accomplish if you ignore math, physics, anthropology and history.
Practicalmaina on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 2:17 pm
If you look at history, our society will move forward as people starve, same as it ever was. Profit margins are falling for those who have been fighting to keep this corrupt system in place. When peak oil causes producers to not be able to maintain low operating and exploration costs, they can no longer fund as much bad science.
We sell coal from us federal land for 1 dollar a ton and then allow that coal company to spend it’s profit on corrupting our political system so it can keep poisoning us. The reason the 1% does not like renewables is not because they dont work it is because the Koch brothers can run a strip mine with a small workforce. Solar panels need to be installed and maintained by large numbers of people. We all know the assholes on top do not share well.
Apneaman on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 3:16 pm
Why we should beware the dawn of cheap petrol
“In the summer of 2014, as prices began to slide, Saudi Arabia reduced its output to balance the market, but soon it had a rethink. Between 1980 and 1985 it reduced supply – from 10.5m to 2.5m barrels a day – to keep prices high, but suffered serious economic consequences. So in September 2014, Saudi drew a proverbial line in the sand, deciding not to protect the price but to prioritise defence of its market share.
The conspiracy theorists had a field day: this was obviously a political attack targeted at Russia, at Iran, at Iraq, at the US, they said. The reality was much simpler. Saudi Arabia aimed to marginalise the high-cost producers to the benefit of low-cost producers – like Saudi Arabia. The fact that these high-cost producers were for the most part also American was purely coincidental.”
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/29/beware-cheap-petrol-crash-oil-prices-climate-change-pensions
dooma on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 5:33 pm
The article failed to mention the most important fact: these new planet saving cars will also be flying cars..
makati1 on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 8:05 pm
Practical, this time is different. The system will NOT move forward to ever better lifestyles. The party is over. Retrogression is the future, not progression. Penury said it best in his comment above.
dissident on Tue, 1st Mar 2016 11:09 pm
This trash is beyond retarded. Cheap gasoline will suppress the purchase of electrics and hybrids which are way overpriced. Take the Toyota RAV4 hybrid as an example, the base price is $9000 higher than the regular version. Other than some sort of “look at me I am saving the environment” show off factor, there is no economic justification for this markup. Any oil “glut” would make the markup even more absurd.
tita on Wed, 2nd Mar 2016 2:10 am
Car sales (any kind) increased by 10% in 2015 (quite huge!). Not that I disrespect the EV sales, but this 60% figure is linked to this global sales increase.
Kenz300 on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 9:30 am
Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….
China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem
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ERRATA on Fri, 4th Mar 2016 10:00 am
Be very careful to the vision of the development of electric motoring.
Are these visions are advertising?
Electric cars were built a long time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car
The disadvantage of such a car was fast depletion of the battery.
Electric cars attempted to promote (recommend) during the first and second oil crisis.
Always, however, it was a small, poor stroller, who could not compete with internal combustion vehicles (I.C.E.)
I still do not know whether the problem was solved, adequate capacity battery, with its sufficient internal stability.
This problem is related to the issue that really tank of gasoline contains no internal energy.
“- ??”
Yes, yes – under anaerobic conditions petrol can hit and try to burn. It will not happen absolutely nothing wrong.
Combustion heat produced (separated) only in the presence of oxygen.
It is different from the electric battery. He actually contains the energy in the internal structure.
Please take a look here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline
44.4 MJ / kg (external energy)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinitrotoluene
The heat of detonation utilized by NIST is 4,184 MJ / kg (internal energy)
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As the density increases the energy content of the battery, it becomes explosive:
On the Internet you can find a lot of sites that illustrate the problem:
https://www.quora.com/What-happens-when-a-Tesla-car-crashes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-07/stolen-tesla-car-chase-ends-flaming-car-wreck-so-violent-it-confused-fireworks
http://www.techlicious.com/blog/the-risk-of-exploding-lithium-ion-batteries/
http://www.livescience.com/50643-watch-lithium-battery-explode.html
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2442392/New-blow-Tesla-Fire-worlds-safest-electric-car-began-vehicles-battery.html