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What will happen in 2016?
Never make predictions, especially about the future. So said Mark Twain, Yogi Berra or Niels Bohr – or possibly all three.
But if you must, there are really only two options: play safe and go for the obvious, or come up with forecasts so giddily optimistic that no one will take you seriously.
Using the former approach, 2016 will produce more tragedy in Syria and Yemen, an uninterrupted stream of refugees into Europe, another iteration of the Grexit crisis, deepening drought in the Chinese east and American west, and further hacking misadventure on both state and corporate levels. And an awful lot of summits to try to deal with all of the above.
Corruption will continue to excoriate three-quarters of the world’s polities – leaving the vast majority of humanity disillusioned and increasingly unlikely to vote. Ditto sport. The global economy is due another rout, probably starting in Asia.
But let’s leave room for a little optimism. There will actually be fewer wars in 2016 than for many years. And while the Koreas are unlikely to reunify, Cyprus might. Elections for two of the top jobs in the world – in the US and at the UN – could produce women in both for the first time. Science will tell us more than we ever knew about our ancestors, ourselves and our universe.
The powerful mixture of birth control and rising prosperity that levelled off birth rates in western societies in the postwar period will continue to take root in Africa, putting downward pressure on overall population levels. We might not get to 11 billion people after all.
And away from the headlines, the overwhelming majority of people will continue to lead decent, unremarkable lives undeflected by the pulses of pessimism that tend to pollute our overall sense of wellbeing. Who knows, perhaps we will even start to realise that happiness does not reside in social media, and 2015 will go down as the year of peak-share.
Or maybe that’s just too over-optimistic.
The US election
Predicting the course of US politics over the next 12 months is a mug’s game. The battle for the White House – which has already been raging in the media for months – will undoubtedly dominate. But it has barely begun in the minds of the electorate, who have until 4 November to make a choice that will reverberate around the world.
The Republican field has been led most recently by two improbable outsiders, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, who look as likely to eventually stumble as they ever have. So far, they continue to make fools of pundits who underestimate the anti-establishment groundswell.
Barack Obama’s natural heir in the Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, is a surer bet: safely ahead now of the leftwing challenger Bernie Sanders in the polls and showing more resilience in the face of once worrying email allegations. Her vulnerability to Sanders’ more authentic populism remains troubling, however, for a frontrunner who lost to Obama eight years ago and has yet to ignite the excitement that a potential first female president might expect.
But on the assumption that harsh political reality will eventually overcome the anger on the right and idealism on the left, it is possible to see a plausible narrative emerging for 2016.
The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in February will play their usual quirky role as starting bells rather than bellwethers in the long nomination contest to come.
The Tea Party champion Ted Cruz could upset Trump to win Iowa and begin the slow descent of the billionaire’s ego-inflated balloon. Marco Rubio stands a chance of beginning his ascent to the top of the polls by taking New Hampshire.
The Democratic race will be at its most competitive. Sanders may still take one or two early states before hitting the higher hurdle of Clinton’s “southern firewall” in March.
It is in these 10 Super Tuesday states that the Republican party machinery and money will begin to work its muscle too – rallying behind a candidate such as Rubio to appeal to the broader electorate.
Those months of fighting Trump will have taken their toll, though, and Rubio’s reputation as a pro-immigration unifier will have taken a severe pounding.
What is left of his youth and charisma will be pitted against Clinton’s experience and the chance to make history by electing both a woman and a tough commander-in-chief.
The best prediction is that these predictions will be wrong. My next best bet? Clinton pips Rubio in a squeaker.
Dan Roberts in Washington
China
According to the Chinese zodiac, 2016 heralds the year of the monkey, an auspicious time for expectant parents hoping for quick-witted sprogs.
For the Communist party chief, Xi Jinping, who completes three years as president in January, the omens are less promising. Thus far, Xi has built a reputation as one of China’s most dominant leaders in decades: a super-sized centraliser whom headline writers call Big Daddy Xi.
He has cemented his grip on power with a ferocious assault on political rivals that has dragged some of the party’s most feared and influential figures through the mud and into jail. He has set about restoring the Middle Kingdom to the centre of world affairs, pursuing an increasingly audacious foreign policy and attempting to reforge China’s role within the United Nations.
In September, the Chinese president celebrated his apparent supremacy by throwing a bombastic military parade at which nuclear missile launchers and thousands of troops paraded through Tiananmen Square.
Yet for all Xi’s swagger, there was mounting evidence in 2015 of his weaknesses and those of the 87 million-strong party he leads.
There was the mismanaged stock market rout, an affair so badly handled that Xi reputedly lambasted top financial officials when he was pictured on the cover of the Economist desperately attempting to prop up plummeting stocks.
“I didn’t want to be on that cover,” Xi fumed. “But thanks to you, I made the cover.”
There were the catastrophic Tianjin explosions – a tragedy some described as a Chinese Katrina – which devastated lives and exposed deep-rooted problems of government corruption and incompetence. All the while, lurking just beneath the surface, was the near constant rumbling of political intrigue that has long threatened to tear the Communist party apart.
Those rumblings will intensify in 2016 as rival factions step up their opposition to Xi’s anti-corruption campaign and his stewardship of a rapidly sagging economy.
Facing growing political pressure from within, Xi will look to foreign policy and his domestic security apparatus to ensure public support. He will stoke up nationalism by further ratcheting up tensions in the South China Sea, already the scene of a controversial island-building campaign that has put Beijing and Washington at loggerheads. He will continue to escalate his war on corrupt Communist party “tigers” – aiming to snare perhaps his biggest victim to date in the second half of the year.
And, with 2016 marking 50 years since the start of Chairman Mao’s tumultuous Cultural Revolution, the few who dare to speak out against China’s Big Daddy will face even harsher treatment as Beijing seeks to stifle any criticism of the party he leads.
Jubilant couples will pack maternity wards as China enters the year of the monkey. But for Xi it threatens to prove an annus horribilis.
Tom Phillips in Beijing
The digital world
For people with computers, which is most of us, 2015 wasn’t great. But next year is probably going to be much, much worse.
The catastrophic data breach of the extramarital dating site Ashley Madison is currently an outlier in the history of hacking: for perhaps the first time, the information that was leaked was extremely personal, and damaging in its own right. You can’t change your passwords, or warn your bank, to stop a marriage being wrecked by the fact that you were trying to have an affair.
But as we entrust ever more personal data to the cloud, breaches of this sort are inevitably going to increase. Connected home CCTV, direct message histories, chat transcripts or photo messages could all be devastating on a personal level if leaked.
So what good news, then, that the British government intends to force internet service providers to retain communications data for a full year. Because the experience of TalkTalk, which was allegedly hacked by a group of teenagers applying the 20-year-old technique of SQL injections, surely shows that there is no risk at all in doing so.
But not every hack is pranksters or criminal enterprise. The coming year will also be the year that cyberterrorism comes of age – sort of.
Experts have been warning about the lack of security around industrial control systems for years. The networks that control power plants, national grids and reservoirs rely heavily on obscurity to defend against attack: they aren’t directly connected to the internet, and use arcane coding. But that obscurity cannot be a long-term defence.
In the end, though, we perhaps have more to fear from sheer bad luck than we do from dedicated attack. As the pseudonymous security researcher the Grugq points out, no hacker in history has ever been as successful at disrupting power to American homes as the squirrel that scampered into a substation in California and caused a power cut for 45,000 people.
Alex Hern
Brexit
By this time next year, Britain may very well have voted to leave the EU. There is, of course, no certainty about this. But let us consider the evidence.
First, the timing of the vote. Most observers agree that David Cameron will not delay his long-promised referendum beyond next year, because he has nothing to gain from it. Neither France nor Germany will be making new concessions in 2017, because both will by then be embroiled in big elections. So best get it over with: in September, probably.
Next, the nature of the debate. The in and out campaigns will argue numbers – how many jobs might be saved by staying, how many immigrants kept out by leaving, what will be the impact on GDP – but for many voters, Europe is not about numbers. It’s a question of belief. This is a debate largely impervious to fact.
And those who believe Britain would be better off out are edging ahead. Look at the polls: a year ago, the stay camp was in front by margins of up to 25%. That gap has now narrowed to between two and four points, and three of the past eight polls have the leave camp ahead. The trend seems clear.
The unspoken assumption may be that most “don’t knows” will back the status quo, but precedent shows that when a vote is about the EU, voters lash out. Here, Ukip won last year’s European elections; on the continent, every recent referendum on an EU issue bar one has ended in a no.
What’s more, in none of those countries were the press and governing party even remotely as Eurosceptic as in Britain. In the UK, the stay campaign is swimming against a decades-old tide of populist anti-EU sentiment relayed by an influential wing of the Conservative party and much of the media.
The prime minister has succeeded in reducing what he wants in the way of reform to a bare-bones list of demands, many of which the EU may even agree to. But the real issue is whether those demands will satisfy his own party, and succeed – even temporarily – in turning back that Eurosceptic tide.
With record numbers of EU citizens arriving in Britain, further Schengen zone terror possible, a second summer of refugee and migrant chaos probable, a well-funded out campaign gathering pace, and much of the media having made up their minds, it will be a tight vote.
Until Cameron, his cabinet and, perhaps more crucially, Boris Johnson say soon, often and unequivocally that Britain’s future depends on its remaining in the EU, I know where I’d put my money.
Jon Henley in London
Science
For all the uncertainty about the outer limits of scientific knowledge, some events and advances are firmly on the 2016 calendar.
In January, the UK’s fertility regulator will consider the first application from British scientists to use a gene editing procedure called Crispr-Cas9 on human embryos. The team, led by Kathy Niakan at the Francis Crick Institute in London, will manipulate the genes of embryos donated to research to learn more about embryo development.
Photograph: Demotix Live News/Corbis
In April 2015, Chinese scientists became the first in the world to announce they had used the tool to modify abnormal human embryos, to investigate whether they could correct faulty genes that cause a rare blood disorder, beta thalassemia. Expect gene editing to notch up some big successes in the year ahead, and become central to a debate on the ethics of genetically modifying human beings with changes that pass on to future generations.
The fourth rock from the sun provided one of the most exciting science stories of 2015, when Nasa discovered flowing water on Mars, or at least the regular formation of damp patches on crater walls and gullies. Where the water is coming from, and how much there is, are big questions for 2016. The mystery of Martian methane will also keep researchers busy. Nasa’s Curiosity rover has measured spikes in methane levels near the surface, but whether the gas is emanating from rocks or subterranean Martian bugs is unknown. In March, the European Space Agency’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter will blast off on a mission to help find the answer. It will sniff the atmosphere for minute levels of methane and other gases and, with luck, shed light on the source of Martian methane.
In September, the team behind Bloodhound, Britain’s 1,000mph rocket car, will ship the extraordinary vehicle to South Africa for test drives on an old lake bed called Hakskeen Pan. During the runs the driver, Andy Green, hopes to get Bloodhound up to 800mph over a 12-mile stretch using only one rocket. A cluster of three rockets will be used for the landspeed record attempt later on.
Just as genetics challenges our future, it unveils our past. Next year, researchers in Germany hope to study DNA from a 400,000-year-old human relative found in a cave in northern Spain. Their analysis, along with tests on other remains, could shed light on new forms of early humans that used to live alongside our direct ancestors.
The human story will be richer for it.
Ian Sample in London
Russia
Vladimir Putin’s 16th year in charge of Russia is perhaps the most unpredictable yet. The air force is engaged in an operation outside the borders of the Soviet Union for the first time in a generation, Russia’s proxies in Ukraine have been left in the uneasy limbo of a semi-ceasefire, and the Russian economy is creaking as oil prices stay low.
Here’s how Vladimir Vladimirovich might imagine a dream year as he’s drifting off to sleep in his palatial residence: Russian jets continue pounding all manner of rebel groups in Syria while the Kremlin vaunts its anti-Islamic State resolve. Irritation in the west turns to grudging respect and an agreement with Putin that Bashar al-Assad will remain in charge as the best of a set of bad options. In Kiev, infighting and corruption paralyse the government; the pro-rebel territories are pushed back into Ukraine but give Russia a permanent veto over Kiev’s policies; the west accepts this, forgets about Crimea and ends the sanctions. Oil prices go up, the rouble stabilises and sky-high approval ratings last through the autumn parliamentary elections.
Putin’s beleaguered foes would suggest a different scenario: a fragile international alliance over Syria breaks down over obviously disparate aims, and western sanctions over Crimea and Ukraine are extended. The economy continues to tank, real wages fall. The middle class, shorn of the weekends in Europe and consumer goods it was used to, becomes edgy, while workers pushed to economic dire straits begin serious protests – a flicker of which was visible at the end of 2015 as long-distance truckers went on strike.
Both of these scenarios are eminently possible; what actually happens will probably be somewhere in the middle. How Russia makes it through 2016 and beyond, until the 2018 presidential election when Putin is expected to stand again, will depend on so many things – from the oil price, to the prevailing international mood and Putin’s personal health.
Making predictions about Putin’s Russia is hard because the system is brittle and unpredictable. Events such as the revolution in Ukraine or the Turkish shooting down of a Russian jet can completely change policy vectors and outcomes.
Putin’s system, lauded by Kremlin strategists for its stability, is in fact remarkably unpredictable, partly because it is entirely dependent on the one man at the top of the pyramid. Putin’s disappearance for a week in spring, and his aides’ refusal to admit that he had a bout of flu, caused unease and speculation that provided a glimpse into what could happen if the leader were ever seriously indisposed.
Shaun Walker in Moscow
Sport
In 2009, when Rio won the right to stage the Olympics, it was sold as a feelgood coming out party for a nation fast becoming one of the world’s powerhouses. The rhetoric ran that South America’s first ever Games would turbocharge redevelopment of Rio de Janeiro’s creaking infrastructure and tap into Brazil’s booming economy. It hasn’t quite turned out like that.
As the Olympics approach, nervousness over whether the venues will be ready in time has decreased but has been replaced by worries over everything from police brutality to an ever widening corruption scandal and an economic slump that has led to fears over ticket sales.
Budgets have been trimmed and the sense of optimism that pervaded the bid has been replaced by something close to foreboding. Yet there is not the same level of public outrage that was directed at the World Cup in Brazil, and the likelihood is that the city’s famous vitality will see it through.
Whether the promised improvements to Rio’s infrastructure materialise as billed is another question entirely. And it is one that should worry the International Olympic Committee as it contemplates a landscape in which cities are no longer queuing up in quite the same way to host their showpiece event.
The other big question is whether Russian athletes will line up on the athletics track, after being banned for an indefinite period over systemic state-sponsored doping. They almost certainly will, given the wider politics at play, but the taint of the scandal will not go away.
In France, football’s European Championship – expanded from 16 to 24 teams for the first time – was supposed to be a feelgood celebration but will now take place under a heavy security blanket after the Paris attacks. Yet the signs are that fans are more likely to travel and party in defiance than stay away in fear.
Meanwhile, the fallout at Fifa and the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) from 12 months of jaw-dropping developments will continue as criminal investigations into deep-seated corruption progress.
The currently suspended Sepp Blatter will formally relinquish his hold over Fifa in February but it remains to be seen if any of the unimpressive cast of potential replacements offers the prospect of real reform, while the embattled IAAF president, Sebastian Coe, faces the hardest race of his life in resurrecting his crisis-hit sport.
Owen Gibson
Cyprus
It’s been dubbed a graveyard for peacemakers, the Rubik’s Cube of diplomacy, but despite the odds Cyprus may well defy naysayers in 2016 by solving its decades-long division. The strategic Mediterranean island, home of Europe’s last partitioned capital, is facing what seasoned Cyprus watchers are calling a historic window of opportunity.
In an unprecedented meeting of minds, Greek and Turkish Cypriots regard the year ahead as the last best chance to end the ethnic divide. Greek Cypriots, emerging from their worst economic crisis since an attempt at union with Athens prompted Ankara to invade in 1974, have increasingly come round to seeing the benefits of reunification. “They know that if they don’t do a deal now there is a very good chance that partition will be cemented and Turkey will annex the north,” says James Ker-Lindsay, a Cyprus expert at the London School of Economics. “That would mean not only bordering Turkey, but an unpredictable and potentially disturbing Turkey.”
Photograph: Neil Hall/Reuters
For the minority Turkish Cypriots, the rationale is not dissimilar. A reunited Cyprus would, they say, not only offer a better and brighter future in an EU member state but in a country that, in sharp contrast to Turkey, is avowedly secular.
Reflecting the optimism, both communities are led by doughty pro-union moderates – Greek Nicos Anastasiades and his Turkish counterpart Mustafa Akinci – who have made reunification in a loose “bi-zonal, bi-communal federation” their central goal.
“If you can’t settle it with these two guys, you’ll never settle it,” says Ker-Lindsay, who puts the chances of success “at six or higher” on a scale of one to 10.
But it is the stance of Turkey itself that gives the biggest hope. A confluence of events – ranging from Ankara’s recent run-in with Russia to the re-energising of its EU accession process – has put the need for a Cyprus settlement centre stage. A solution would afford Turkey a badly needed foreign policy success, allow it to diversify its energy supplies – with the island’s subsequent transformation into a regional transport hub for oil and gas reserves – and boost its chances of joining the EU. It would also free up Turkish funds: the island’s breakaway north is utterly dependent on Turkey bankrolling it.
“For years, Ankara viewed Cyprus as strategic territory reconquered,” notes Hubert Faustmann, who teaches history and political science at the University of Nicosia. “Now, it’s a loss it seems willing to accept for higher benefit.”
Both sides are engaged in intense negotiations with a view to holding referendums once an agreement is clinched. But they have yet to discuss the issues of property, security and territory, all potential deal breakers. Parliamentary elections in the south loom, another spoiler if hardline rejectionists have their way. “I am hopeful we’ll have an agreement, but getting a double yes in the referendums may be as difficult as reaching a deal,” says Faustmann. “But the stars are aligned; we have a perfect storm for a solution to happen.”
Helena Smith in Athens
UN secretary general
By the end of 2016, there will be a new UN secretary general and there is a better than even chance it will be a woman, for the first time. Whether this will make any real difference to the world is unclear. The job has been described as the “world’s chief diplomat” or even the “secular pope”, though in reality it is more akin to the manager of a posh restaurant. You get to rub shoulders with a lot of powerful people, but rarely on equal terms.
The incumbent, Ban Ki-moon, was chosen in 2006 in part because he appeared sufficiently unthreatening to the world’s major powers. If the rules of the game remain unchanged, with the permanent five members of the security council choosing his successor in secret and presenting the result to the rest of the world as a fait accompli, we can expect a similar outcome.
There is a growing drive, however, to change the rules and throw the contest open to the light of public scrutiny. The 1 for 7 Billion campaign, backed by hundreds of NGOs, is proposing an official shortlist of candidates who will have to publish broad manifestos and subject themselves to questions. The security council would still present a shortlist, but it would have to be a list of more than one. More than 170 million people around the world have signalled their support. The idea is to produce someone who is less secretary and more general, with a broad power base and an independent mandate, rather than to be beholden to some murky backroom deal.
There are signs that the security council is beginning to take heed of the groundswell. In an initiative pushed by the UK, a letter is to be sent to the 193 delegations in the general assembly in the New Year inviting candidates and setting a timetable and format for the election.
Until then, the campaign among aspiring secretary generals continues to be a discreet affair, mostly played out in private by unannounced candidates behind closed doors in midtown Manhattan. At this early stage, the conventional wisdom favours someone from eastern Europe (a region yet to take a turn in providing a secretary general) and a woman (all eight holders of the position thus far have been men).
There are a handful of names who fulfil both criteria, including two Bulgarians – the Unesco chief, Irina Bokova, and the EU’s budget commissioner, Kristalina Georgieva – as well as the former Croatian foreign minister Vesna Pusić.
Also thought to be in the running are Helen Clark, the former New Zealand prime minister who now runs the UN Development Programme, and Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister.
Not even the idealists in the 1 for 7 Billion campaign believe the permanent five are going to give up the veto and throw the vote open completely. But the hope is that the major powers hit deadlock over their own favourites and find themselves unable to resist a genuinely popular choice thrown up by the general assembly. Whichever way it goes, it will be a critical year in UN history.
Julian Borger in London
50 Comments on "What will happen in 2016?"
joe on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 7:36 am
My predictions 2016.
Interest rate rises, locking in a revaluation of the stock market, downward.
War, lots more war, isis to begin fighting season by throwing everything it has at Syria to drive the max number of refugees to Europe.
Isis migrates to Europe not Libya, in order to divide Europe forever along faith lines, even if they all get killed, the violence will be enough to break Europe.
Banksters to force EU closer together. Brexit is a laughable dream.
More GW disasters.
Credit markets to dry up as the contagion from high risk debt spreads into to general economy, as has already begun in peripheral markets just like 07.
Turkey to cut isis loose after helping it with its last push.
Al Baghdadi to be dragged through the streets by Arab tribes.
Lone wolf attacks to increase as islamist preachers increase, not decrease the hate.
Tech to continue to cause wonder and awe as we put on v.r. goggles and hide further from reality and watch star wars and think ‘jedi’ could one day be real.
Oil will continue to be ignored as a serious threat to our existence, unlike crack, we can’t do without it…
onlooker on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 7:54 am
I predict even more extreme denial even as things get progressively worse.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 8:23 am
More BAU … until it isn’t.
onlooker on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 8:36 am
James H. Kunstler said something like that “We will continue doing what we are doing until we cannot, then we will not”
Anonymous on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 9:05 am
Egypt implodes because of loss of both tourist money and grants from KSA and increasing need for energy and food imports. Turkey dissolves into civil war and a full police state. Isis make inroads in both countries. European refugees increase five to ten fold over 2015. EU collapses under the strain. No need for a Brexit vote as there won’t be anything to exit from.
JuanP on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:30 am
This article is a big load of smelly WMSM propaganda!
JN2 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:40 am
Here’s Ghung’s prediction in 2013:
>> Ghung at July 10, 2013 10:39 am
US WTI jumped above $105 this morning, and Brent is above $108 (US), while US production seems to be flatlining lately. Expect another petroleum smackdown of economies as EOR accelerates decline rates, ANE nibbles away at importability, and economies sink closer to their minimum operating levels re. oil consumption. <<
Didn't work out that way…
ghung on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 1:29 pm
Alright, JN2, what were your predictions? Did you predict that ZIRP would continue, and that investors would continue to pump billions into junk bonds?
onlooker on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 2:28 pm
I predict we will continue to go up in CO2 emissions and levels even though the world may try and perhaps achieve slight cut backs. This is because now we are beginning to see natural feedbacks like in the Arctic with methane escaping and also in the humongous wildfires that now have become a staple of the climate system it seems. Like in Siberia, Indonesia, the Amazon.
onlooker on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 2:30 pm
Also, humanitarian disasters related to food shortages appear ready to rear their ugly head in 2016 in regions like Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Courtesy of the large El Nino event happening.
curlyq3 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 4:19 pm
Jerome Lester Horwitz (October 22, 1903 – January 18, 1952), better known by his stage name Curly Howard
“If at first you don’t succeed, keep on suckin’ till you do succeed.”
curlyq3
Pete Bauer on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 10:29 pm
In Science section, they should have shown Tesla Model-X a fast / flamboyant SUV with falcon wings and electric drive that has 0 pollution or Model-S which has sold 100,000 units and proved that electric vehicles does sell, instead of some rocket car which no one are going to use.
Similarly for China, they should shown a picture of 1000’s of Electric vehicles that they are selling instead of military parade.
For Russia, they should have shown their BN-800 the world’s first fast reactor that is connected to the grid instead of Putin’s picture.
Lets look at the positive side.
In Year 2016, Electric vehicles will storm into the mainstream with many models set to be launched this year.
danny on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:27 pm
Pete I just gotta say……. Huh???? Have you even seen what is going on in North America? electric car sales are plummeting and massive truck and suv sales are out the roof….China is selling them too in large numbers.
JuanP on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:44 pm
Pete, In the year 2016 you will be extremely disappointed. I have already explained this, but hereI go again: the global automobile fleet has around a billion vehicles, 100,000 Teslas make up a 0.01% of that. Teslas are very cool. My wife’s boss has one and I took it for a drive about two months ago. If I were a millionaire I would probably buy one, but they will NOT save civilization or prevent economic collapse. The world isn’t just running out of cheap oil, we are running out of soil, forests, aquifers, fish, and a climate that allows as to grow food predictably. Oil is the least of my worries.
Boat on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:52 pm
Just in American debt there is over 17 billion supporting it at extremely low interest rates. No shortage of money for any business that can make profit. Solar, wind, and electric will continue to erode fossil fuel growth in developed countries. As tech reaches price tipping points energy pricing will become more stable.
theedrich on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 12:25 am
Affluenza America is evolution gone wrong. Starting during the Enlightenment with pie-in-the-sky convictions about being divinely elected to transform the planet, the United States has become a dagger in its heart. Due to historical accident, this nation now has a death grip on the rest of the West, and is hell-bent on destroying the race that birthed America. Our political system, often referred to as “liberal democracy,” is in fact a bribe-ocracy ruled by the superrich through political bribery and their control of the ministries of propaganda. The prime mechanism used to maintain the plutocrats’ power is a sick sewage composed of Christian religious drivel and subliminal commercial appeals to primate instincts such as greed, aggression, envy and, above all, sex.
Whites are menacingly instructed to avoid the slightest hint of “racism” (defined any way the media masters decide) — while non-Whites may freely employ hatred of Whites whenever and however they please. Meanwhile, the Demonic Party with its Repub toadies, a great many businesses of all types, and taxmoney-grubbing churches and Jewish organizations, are importing ThirdWorld peasantry and criminals, wholesale, to benefit themselves and destroy the country.
On the military front, the U.S. has extended its stranglehold to every country whose rulers it can bribe. Interestingly, our politico-military complex has not been able to win a war for the past 70 years (and even World War II was won only by mass-murdering non-combatant civilians with carpet-bombing and nukes). The current Afghan war — the longest in the nation’s history — has produced little more than a stalemate, with our technologically adorned military unable to defeat an enemy in tennis shoes, and most of the $trillions in “aid” money disappearing into corrupt sinkholes. (Much of the cash, it seems, has magically reappeared in plush dwellings in Dubai.) True, military history has changed: once upon a time, wars were won by human bravery, skill, strength and endurance. Now it is the side has the best flashy gizmos and lethal technology, that conquers others. Yet there are limits even to that, as we are now discovering.
In Yankeeland, the economy is improving for the rich while the White middle classes are disappearing, their jobs increasingly taken by low-wage illegal aliens. (Never mind what is happening to the Blacks.) Simultaneously, the government itself is using “free” money to keep the illusion of prosperity aloft and to buy votes. With their control of the media, the oligarchs can always count on diversion — through entertainment, half-truths, and outright lies — to maintain their power.
Every now and then one reads or hears about some aged dotard, usually a crone, perhaps a hoarder, who has died and left a house to be cleared out by others. The cleaners enter it having to wear gas masks because of the stench; they discover junk and garbage covering every square inch of flooring, so that they have to step with great care merely to go every few feet. It may take weeks, even months, depending on the case, to clear the place out and make it suitable for human habitation again.
This is the direction we are headed on a global scale. For their own financial or ideological benefit, the powers hiding behind the “official” politicians and talking heads are turning the United States and other formerly White countries into the world’s trash bins for ThirdWorld garbage (“the poor, downtrodden,” etc.). There is no garbage man to clean the places up. In fact, whenever there is even a hint of any garbage man, the Judeo-Christian lovers of lower primates, the non-Americans and driftwood from Spicland, etc., begin shrieking about “human rights,” the “holy” Bible, the/a “holocaust,” or some other such emetic, to head the solution off at the pass. These types could not care less about the future. Unicorns will take care of the future, they say.
Over two millennia ago, the great Roman orator Cicero said, “A forward-looking farmer plants orchard trees whose fruit he himself will never see” (Arbores serit diligens agricola, quarum aspiciet baccam ipse numquam). Today almost no one outside of a small minority, like the members of the Post Carbon Institute, holds this attitude. Instead, our plutocratic masters have decided to suppress the alarming warnings of the demographers about the ThirdWorld population explosion, of the oceanographic scientists about the pollution and overfishing of the oceans, of the historians about the life arcs of civilizations, of the biologists about the extinction of species and the deterioration of the human genome, and even of their own eyes. Instead, the drive is to continue the death march no matter what.
Hence they incriminate, imprison or impoverish those who decry the genosuicide of the White race. They belittle those who suggest that failed states should suffer unaided the consequences of their own failures. And they seek to shame all who would like to stop the insane globalization of materialistic affluenza (which they camouflage as “raising people out of poverty”), be it of the communistic or capitalist variety. Because those who would like to prevent the death, not only of White civilization, but of the earth herself, are claimed to be “against progress.”
>The tribe inhabiting Easter Island once rode a similar trajectory to its logical conclusion. Today almost all that is left of that society is a number of mute stone statues standing on heights, staring with unseeing eyes at the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean. At the rate we are going, the day will come soon enough when the great skyscrapers of our oceanside cities will stand, empty and lights out, likewise staring unblinkingly and unthinkingly at the poisoned expanses of the earth’s then lifeless seas.
Thank you, o Masters of the Universe.
makati1 on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 12:53 am
Pete … this is not a good advertisement for Tesla.
“The Norwegian owner of a Tesla Model S found an unexpected f(i)ringe benefit during a cold Friday afternoon when shortly after he had parked his luxury electric car at a supercharging station in Gjerstad, and left, he realized the car could serve as a very quick and efficient, if quite toxic, source of heating for the cold Scandinavian country, after the Model S spontaneously burst into flames…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-01/norwegian-car-b-q-tesla-model-s-bursts-flames-burns-crisp-while-charging
“FVN adds that the only way to extinguish electric car fire is by using water with a copper material. However, it is too costly for the Norwegian fire departments. There were more f(i)ringe benefits: according to firefighter, Steinar Olsen, it is dangerous to breathe the smoke from the fire because it has fluorine gas in it, and when an electric car burns down the toxic gases emitted are far more dangerous than those from a normal car…”
Easy come! Easy go!
GregT on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 12:58 am
@Boat,
“Just in American debt there is over 17 billion supporting it at extremely low interest rates.”
More unintelligible non-sense. Do you ever stop?
onlooker on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 1:13 am
Yeah Boat we will just continue to Lend money and all the problems will magically go away. Guess what you cannot eat money or for that matter make it your main energy source. We are not alchemists nor do we have the secret of the Philosophers stone.
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 1:24 am
Marketwatch article on oil prices,
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-holds-tight-as-dark-clouds-hang-over-prices-for-2016-2015-12-31
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 2:18 am
Reuters article on oil prices,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN0UE02D20151231
Guardian article on oil producing countries, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/30/oil-iran-saudi-arabia-russia-venezuela-nigeria-libya
Davy on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 5:53 am
Add this to the list of likely issues. Sovereign defaults may not happen in 2016 because of global financial repression but the dysfunction of extend and pretend will be more apparent.
The Bric nations are in big trouble which is inconvenient for the bric agendist but they should take comfort in the economic pain coming to the west because of it. There is no decoupling of the two. The global debt and equity markets will likely go full dysfunctional this year. We will see Baghdad Bob style dysfunctional messages out of all the extremist on all sides especially the western MSM.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-01/carmen-reinhart-warns-serious-sovereign-debt-defaults-are-looming
sidzepp on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 8:43 am
How about some positive predictions instead of the doom and gloom one.
The year will start with the 1% gaining a larger stake of the kitty. The poor getting poorer. Those in the middle becoming more paranoid of the future and clinging on the coat-tails of fascist populists. CO levels in the atmosphere continuing to rise. Resulting in more warming. Resulting in more extreme weather.
Then the 1%’s shall have an epiphany and with the realization that their asses are in the same mess as the rest of us and agree to pay more taxes, eliminating their off-shore tax havens and making sure all of their employees are paid a living wage along with good medical benefits.
The Pharma industry will donate all of their profits and energy to the development of cures for cancer, AIDS, tuberculosis, and a host of other diseases.
The world will get together for a global climate summit and create a workable plan to create solutions to the problems we face and make the program enforceable.
Politicians will cease being the lap dogs of special interest groups and decide only to support their constituents.
Or at least the Cubs will win the World Series.
Halfempty on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 8:55 am
Everthing is going to get worse. Global/warming cooling, drought, floods and oil too cheap or too expensive. Agriculture is in a decline like petro, grain is too cheap/expensive and there no real reason to grow anything. Goats are your best bet, unless thet’re not. Hand wringing is looking like a renewable resource. Also there will be wars, roumors of wars and the Cubs will peak in June.
Happy (lol you guys) New Year! Pro-tip fiddler crabs are plentiful and make a fine purée.
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 10:15 am
World Order, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNhYzYUo42g , a new Russian documentary on the American Empire’s failed attempts to achieve total global hegemony and the costs, suffering, misery, and destruction the Americans have sown all over the world.
twocats on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 10:54 am
This article simply blows. The doomstead diner outlines the major situations even worth making predictions on:
1)Oil – oil price/production dynamic – will any oil producing countries or companies implode? Will production continue to fall and potentially lock in Peak Oil (Coyne/Patterson debate)
2)Sovereign Debt Crises in general – there are a lot of countries, municipalities, and companies that are essentially out of money and are having increasing difficulty accessing credit markets
3)Market collapse due to slowing global economy coupled with very extreme asset valuations
4)Currency wars – hyperdeflation / hyperinflation “cliff sliding”
5)Civil unrest due to dropping standard of living
6)Climate chaos – from natural disasters to climate refugee issues
7)Population overshoot – one of these years global population will go down.
These aren’t just categories for US. Any country that experiences any of these calamities is important, not only for the human suffering it will cause, but also regional and global instability. 2016 might be the year we find out how interconnected the planet really is.
For my prediction I think 2016 will see a major “step down” similar to what we saw in 2007-09. The United States actually orchestrated one of the greatest can-kicking exercises in all of human history. If the step-down causes a global economic implosion, does the world have another hail-mary in it for 2016-18?
penury on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 11:40 am
My prediction for 2016, continued devolution, slow decay showing minimal change on a short term basis but total collapse on a longer time frame. If the insane people in MIC and ,gov get their way war will nullify all predictions. Just MHO.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 1:47 pm
I predict Egypt collapses.
It seems they need 26 billion USD in outside financing for 2016. KSA has offered 8 billion over 5 years.
http://crudeoilpeak.info/egypt-budget-and-current-account-deficit-can-saudi-arabia-bail-out-cairo
Northwest Resident on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 1:52 pm
Couldn’t resist adding my predictions for 2016, some/many of which mirror other’s predictions already made on this article:
1) Continuing plunge in commodity prices due to “lack of demand” (i.e., nobody wants or is able to buy the stuff those commodities were formerly used to produce in our debt and consumption based economy)
2) Continuing increase in people totally reliant on social services for survival as “bread winner” jobs grow scarcer and scarcer worldwide
3) Dramatically increasing unrest in China as the greatest debt Ponzi of all time continues to disintegrate into a smoking acrid pile of toxic sludge and disillusioned Happy Consumer wanna-bes
4) Debt defaults in oil and related industries like popcorn in the microwave oven, more and more, faster and louder
5) Increasingly fascist governments worldwide as those in power apply more and more militaristic and austerity-based “solutions” to the world’s growing problems
6) Deadly armed conflicts springing up around the world, continued fail to resolve existing armed conflicts which in fact will only grow worse and worse
7) Millions more refugees originating from a constantly increasing collection of nations
8) A bouncing stock market, with each thrilling plunge toward oblivion quickly followed by a major ramp-up to new record heights based on no volume and no good news whatsoever
9) More terrorist acts worldwide as desperate young men with no future and no hope take out their rage and vengeance on an increasingly numbed and dumbed-down global population
10) A new bevy of bleach blond bimbos hired by Fox News to mesmerize the rapidly growing moronic portion of the American population with their silicon-based boobs and trivial chit-chat
11) An dramatically increasing awareness on the part of business leaders, investment managers, government and military officials and assorted highly intelligent people that THIS version of human civilization is so close to being KAPUT that the only rational action is to prepare for total chaos and ultimate reset
12) One or two more pronouncements by Plantagenet that we are currently experiencing an oil glut, several thousand more articles blaming the oil industry problems on those damned Saudis who are pumping full out to drive the American shale/unconventional producers out of business, gigabytes of digital communications daily generated by propaganda sources intended to keep most of the people stupid and unaware most of the time
IN OTHER WORDS, more of the same shit we saw in 2015 — a LOT more
On another note: Who here is playing the video game “Fallout 4”? Anybody? I’m telling you, this video game offers a dramatically accurate portrayal of the post-collapse world that we are rapidly approaching. In the Fallout 4 world, a major activity is for survivors to gather together in small communities to set up communities for growing food, common security, etc… So many more similarities — check it out and be highly entertained!
JN2 on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 2:12 pm
Ghung said “Alright, JN2, what were your predictions?”
My predictions have been dismal:
1. Peak Oil 2010. WRONG.
2. End of cheap oil 2013. WRONG.
You’re in good company!
ghung on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 2:47 pm
Most of us failed to grok the effects of the Fed dumping trillions into the economy, or another few $trillion being added to the public debt. Wondering where we would be otherwise.
omul on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 2:55 pm
hey theedrich, so..
who the hell u think u are to infuse your truth in this blog and even convince me that there are still smarter ones out there…only i can scream the naked truth around here..-got it?..
the goodest news is that it aint matter , yo…
white peopa dont exist no more…they are all fagots only by now…and they were only religious fagots to begin with when they acted on their destiny or some…
white means nothing …in the end…
i yelled my truth once…that nukulear war and canibalism in any order is all our load to come…not many noticed it…oh, one said he should go on meds…haha, what meds uglies?… there aint gonna be no meds left but in africa the last pills…
so i repeat my advice, for you too, and i enjoy it to ask you to go back to your 69 lifestyles and not waste my time around here no mas…its the end and basta…what is the great fuss about then?.. are you afraid really of anything, uglies_…?. cause i aint…. just homeless
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 3:28 pm
Twocats “For my prediction I think 2016 will see a major “step down” similar to what we saw in 2007-09.” I agree that a major financial crisis could happen this year. There are too many unsustainable market bubbles right now, stocks, bonds, real estate, you name it. TPTB will have a very hard time trying to keep this shit together for another year.
My prediction for 2016 is very simple, it will be worse than 2015, and maybe the worst year of our lives so far for people everywhere in general. It is also extremely likely that 2017 will be even worse. This low oil price will cause major chaos at some point.
omul on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 5:29 pm
losers….u dont evendare to read my post….have a goodest prediction now…
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 5:49 pm
Omul, I think your comment was very hard to understand because your English is not too good. That is probably why nobody answered.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Jan 2016 1:49 am
I read omul’s post but he was directing his comments to “the uglies”, so I knew he wasn’t talking to me.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 8:54 am
The news is already starting the year off poorly. This is negative news is especially ominous out of China!
“This Time Isn’t Different”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/time-isnt-different
“The reckless herd has been in control for the last few years, but their recklessness is going to get them slaughtered. Corporate profits are plunging. Labor participation continues to fall. A global recession is in progress. The strong U.S. dollar is crushing exports and profits of international corporations. Real household income remains stagnant, while healthcare, rent, home prices, education, and a myriad of other daily living expenses relentlessly rises. The world is a powder keg, with tensions rising ever higher in the Middle East, Ukraine, Europe, and China. The lessons of history scream for caution at this moment in time, not recklessness. 2016 will be a year of reckoning for the reckless herd.”
China stocks rout on first market day of 2016 trips national trading halt
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-stocks-trading-halt-idUSKBN0UI0CU20160104
Global Stocks Tumble Following Shanghai’s 7% Crash
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-03/yen-rises-as-investors-monitor-saudi-tension-stocks-signal-drop
China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-extend-annual-slump-as-yuan-declines
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 9:12 am
I do not know how much importance we should be giving now to the stock markets. They seem now so disconnected from the real world, of resources, consumers, trading transactions, environmental consequences etc. Also, they seem to be at this time simply an indulgence of wealthy investors and investment companies/banks rather than a vital cog within the economic system.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 10:13 am
The markets now are the last vestiges of confidence in the status quo. This is why they are still important from a psychological viewpoint. The cornucopian narrative is much harder to maintain with negative sentiment. In the real world of physical reality markets are an abstraction divorced from reality. The market bubbles fueled distortions that soon will be paid for in economic blood. This is why they still matter.
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 10:16 am
Thanks Davy, that is a good disclaimer or caveat to my thesis about Markets.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 11:01 am
What do you bet the “powers that are” intervene in the markets in their discrete hidden ways to ensure we don’t have market carnage on day one of this wonderful year 2016! If they do and the day ends with a less than exciting end today will still be an illustration this is going to be a rocky year ahead.
“Market On Track For Worst Opening Day Loss In 84 Years”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/market-pace-worst-opening-day-loss-past-century
“There is a saying that as January goes, so goes the full year market. But what about just the first day of January? Courtesy of Reuters’ Jamie McGeever, here is a quick snapshot of the worst opening days for the US stock market in the past century. As of this moment, the S&P is down just about 2.4%. If the market closes here, that would make it a worse first day of trading than in such “dramatic” years as 2008 and 1933. But wait, there’s more, because unless the S&P somehow manages to stage a rebound and closes above the current levels, it would suffer the worst opening day loss in the past century except for the historic -8.1% collapse it suffered on January 4 of 1932.” Alternatively, if stocks really want to make the record books today, then they have to slide another 5.5%. That may be a stretch…
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 11:04 am
OH yeah their is much intervening and manipulation in the markets, but their remains a degree of uncertainty in them as well, I would think.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 2:23 pm
Worldwide electricity production vulnerable to climate and water resource change
“Hydropower plants and thermoelectric power plants—which are nuclear, fossil-, and biomass-fueled plants converting heat to electricity—both rely on freshwater from rivers and streams,” explains Michelle Van Vliet, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria and Wageningen University in the Netherlands, who led the study. “These power-generating technologies strongly depend on water availability, and water temperature for cooling plays in addition a critical role for thermoelectric power generation.”
Together, hydropower and thermoelectric power currently contribute to 98% of electricity production worldwide.”
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-01-worldwide-electricity-production-vulnerable-climate.html#jCp
JuanP on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 2:46 pm
Ap, That is one of Uruguay’s greatest weaknesses. It is great to have hydroelectric plants when there is water, but it sucks during droughts, in the future recurrent megadroughts will make this issue very critical for countries like mine.
Uruguay is also a food exporting country. We export mostly premium quality and organic food products all over the world. Food exports are a very important source of income forus. During these past 15 years we have had a number of droughts that significantly reduced both our hydroelectric energy generation capacity and our food exports at the same time with very bad consequences for the economy.
Combined with a deteriorating relationship with Argentina, which is our largest source of foreign tourists, the damage inflicted to our economy has been serious. Tourism is our second largest source of national income after agricultural exports.
I expect these three pillars of the Uruguayan economy to become extremely unstable and unpredictable. Uruguay will be destroyed by a mega drought, IMO. We are lucky to have a very large aquifer in some parts of the country that is not being used unsustainably yet, the water levels are stable so far. But in the parts of the country where there is no accessible groundwater and in the capital where 2 of our 3.4 million people leave the situation will be catastrophic at some point. The capital has no access to groundwater.
joe on Thu, 7th Jan 2016 5:57 am
Dow down 500 points, isis truck bombs a police station in Libya, immigrants mass grope women in Germany, French police shoot dead a lone wolf trying to enter a police station, ces announces the arrival of v.r.
It’s only the 7-1-16. War is coming because it’s always the banksters solution to a collapse in global trade. No amount of Saudi bickering with Iran can’t hide the fact that demand is falling. The FED has only one option, to bury it’s head in the sand and hide, US is about to elect an anti – Christ that will lead humanity singing hymns of its own destruction.
Bumpy plateau anyone?
Davy on Thu, 7th Jan 2016 6:16 am
More like bumpy descent. We had a bumpy plateau for 10 years now.
joe on Thu, 7th Jan 2016 6:27 am
Sadly there is still enough cheap oil, and unlimited fiat currency to carry on the debasement of western society for another decade or more. But the cracks are showing. People in the west will be looking for demi-Gods to protect them.
makati1 on Thu, 7th Jan 2016 6:29 am
joe, you could be right. All signs are pointing in that direction. War is ALWAYS the cover-up used when there is no alternative but the truth. Trouble is, this time the major players all have nukes. There may not be a “last man standing”.
Davy on Thu, 7th Jan 2016 6:29 am
Decade maybe but an important point is we don’t know a time frame and any time is as good as any other when you are a ship adrift in waters with icebergs.
makati1 on Thu, 7th Jan 2016 6:35 am
Joe, I don’t give ‘western society’ that long. Again, less than 5 years and ‘cheap’ oil could end tomorrow. It certainly cannot last much longer then it is profitable to recover, refine and distribute to an ever decreasing consumer base.