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Page added on December 5, 2015
Why Is The U.S. Reluctant To Bomb ISIS Oil Fields?
There has been some revealing new information coming out recently regarding the strategy against ISIS. One aspect many find troubling is the apparent failure of U.S. and coalition forces to sufficiently target and destroy oil infrastructure located in ISIS territory, which accounts for a significant portion of the terror group’s annual income. The argument goes, if we want to impact their operations, we should target their primary sources of income, and choke off their operational funds. So, why does ISIS oil infrastructure still stand? Is this the result of an intelligence failure? Negligence? Or, is there a more purposeful reason?
Using data from the Department of Defense, we can see the targeting of oil infrastructure has indeed been a relatively low priority. Buildings and military positions receive the bulk of coalition attention, and only 260 oil-related targets have been destroyed since operations began, out of 16,075 targets damaged or destroyed. And, we now know just how many of these oil-related targets remain. So, what reason could coalition forces have for holding off?
We now know with a high degree of certainty that ISIS receives the majority of its oil income selling unrefined crude, at the pump. There was some idea this was the case, but now it is more certain. This means the ISIS oil trade goes as far as pumping oil from the ground, and then selling it to a long line of waiting tanker trucks that are typically not affiliated with the group. And, while ISIS used to run some marginal refining operations, that appears to no longer be the case. Additionally, we now know the organization’s largest market is not from exports, but through sales to its local, monopolized market in northern Syria. The fact that most of the income is local, and not from exports is even more fascinating when you learn that not only does this oil find its way to local civilians that need fuel for power generation, but that much of the fuel finds its way to Assad’s government forces and the various rebel groups that are arrayed against ISIS itself.
We also now have a better understanding of the extent of ISIS’ diverse revenue stream outside of oil. For instance, last year, in the midst of the chaos in northern Iraq, the terror group turned to robbery, and stole well over $500 million from Iraqi banks. They also onerously tax the locals that are unfortunate enough to live under their rule. And, most surprising are the large revenues garnered from farming on very fertile Syrian and Iraqi land. These sources are far more important than the oft-reported revenues from hostage taking and the selling of sex slaves. This tells us oil is important, but not a silver bullet to disrupt operations.
So, a possible reason for not decisively interrupting oil operations could include preservation of infrastructure for rebuilding after the conflict. This certainly has precedent, since coalition forces have tried this in Iraq and Afghanistan most recently, and territorial shifts occur rapidly in this current conflict. Consider this a lesson learned from Kuwait in 1991.
Another possibility is the US does not want to cause any environmental damage in the surrounding region, having learned another hard lesson from the First Gulf War. This is possible, but highly unlikely. In the face of open war and killing enemies, it is extremely difficult to imagine any government placing environmental concerns over decisive strikes against an enemy. This approach does not have precedent.
Another scenario, which may be the be most plausible, is a play for local fighters to turn on ISIS, prevent further humanitarian issues in the region, and to maintain supplies to rebel groups fighting both ISIS and Assad. A loss of fuel in this region would be extremely detrimental to the local population, which relies overwhelmingly on generators for power, fueled by ISIS oil. The same goes for all the groups fighting ISIS – they all receive fuel from their enemies’ oil pumps. Without fuel, this could hamper the war effort on the ground, and even draw the local population into further compliance with ISIS. Since oil provides the lifeline for many civilians under ISIS rule, this must be taken into account for any long-term strategy in the region.
Some might mock the fact that the U.S. Air Force, before a recent strike, dropped pamphlets on the oil transport vehicles giving the occupants 45 minutes to vacate their tankers before air attacks would commence. This is simply a recognition of how crucial a local population is to combatting insurgencies and terrorist groups. We know the tanker drivers are most likely not affiliated with ISIS in any way, and might even despise the terror organization. They might even be retrieving fuel to be delivered to the very forces that are fighting against ISIS.
It’s incredibly important to keep in mind the limits of military power when waging counter-terror and counter-insurgency operations, a fact not lost on top military officials in Washington. Our understanding as to how to effectively combat terror groups has grown immensely in recent years, and key aspects of this are to allow for the creation of divisions in the territory and the terror organization itself and to ultimately draw in the local population to your side. The former involves containing the group and allowing those divisions to bubble to the surface over time.
This is a key point by terrorism expert Daniel Byman, where he makes the case for “containment” and “de-legitimation” in a scholarly work from 2007. In a sense, this was U.S. counterterrorism strategy globally before 2001. The other component is key, and was effectively used in Iraq in 2006-2007, when the Sunni Awakening went into effect after local tribal groups cut deals with U.S. forces, and turned on al Qaeda. This was a vital juncture in the campaign in Iraq ushering in relative calm in a turbulent part of the world.
It’s important to note that the available information provides a conflicting picture and we can’t be entirely clear on motives at this point. However, the evidence does plausibly point toward forcing realignment of local tribal groups against ISIS, and the maintenance of crucial supplies to resistance groups throughout the region, both corroborated with past actions by U.S. and coalition forces, and counterterrorism strategy. It also remains to be seen if the United States is forced to abandon this strategy given recent attacks and Russian involvement in the region. It may now simply be untenable, for any reason, to forgo attacks on oil infrastructure in the region.
By Ryan Opsal for Oilprice.com
32 Comments on "Why Is The U.S. Reluctant To Bomb ISIS Oil Fields?"
rockman on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 10:51 am
“And, while ISIS used to run some marginal refining operations, that appears to no longer be the case. Additionally, we now know the organization’s largest market is not from exports, but through sales to its local, monopolized market in northern Syria. The fact that most of the income is local, and not from exports is even more fascinating when you learn that not only does this oil find its way to local civilians that need fuel for power generation, but that much of the fuel finds its way to Assad’s government forces and the various rebel groups that are arrayed against ISIS itself.”
Multiple bullsh*t IMHO. First they say ISIS isn’t refining much oil anymore but are selling “fuel” to the locals. Oil is not a fuel: gasoline, diesel and fuel oil are fuels and they are produced by refining oil. Second, so the locals have been paying ISIS tens of $millions for oil: what have they been doing: charging it on the Master Cards? LOL. Obviously they can’t be paying them in local currency that could only be spent locally…ISIS simply takes local resources they need by force. Maybe they are paying ISIS from their hidden bunkers of gold. ISIS revenue must be in some monetary form that can be exchanged internationally …or at least with Turk banks.
And 260 oil related targets? If they had consulted with a few US oil patch production engineers those 260 airstrikes could have done a fair job of crippling ISIS oil production. A single facility might be used to produce many dozens of individual wells. And we didn’t need to blow up one tank truck and its driver. Oil production infrastructure is rather unstable without being bombed. Consider that offshore platform that just blew up as a result of damaged caused by “high winds”. In the last 40 years the Rockman has seen numerous production facilities blow up and put out of commission when every effort was being made to not damage them.
Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 11:44 am
“Did Turkey Just Invade Iraq To Protect Erdogan’s ISIS Oil Smuggling Routes?”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/did-turkey-just-invade-iraq-protect-erdogans-isis-oil-smuggling-routes
Some entertaining ISIS reading. This is a great soap if it were not so tragic and dangerous. What is real and what isn’t is not my point here, my point is the story is fascinating especially considering all the different players. This would make a great movie. Just imagine some of the individuals involved in these stories. Can you picture Star Wars Han’s Solo types and so forth. Amazing saga in human history that I hope is not our end.
Bob Owens on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 3:57 pm
The sooner we advance to wind/solar power and get off oil the sooner these ME killers will all sink back into the desert sands they came from. If we get off oil we won’t need to be over there and they will be able to kill each other in peace and quiet. If half our military budget went to wind/solar we could solve these problems in the next decade. We don’t need to be the World’s policeman.
shortonoil on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 5:42 pm
“Multiple bullsh*t IMHO.”
110% correct. What you said is essentially true for any complex extractive industry. None of them run smoothly — even on good days, and they all have some key component. Once it goes out, the whole thing shuts down. With the weaponry in use today taking out one stock tank from a field of many wells would be no problem. During the last Iraq war I saw footage of US bombers putting a smart bomb down an 18″ air intake on a hardened bunker. Hitting a stock tank would be like hitting New York State in comparison. Like you, I don’t buy it!
makati1 on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:34 pm
Close the Turkish border and bomb the oil truck convoys. No reason to damage the Syrian oil fields that the Syrians will need to rebuild. But then, that is the Imperial Plan. Destroy another ME country’s ability to be independent. Just like Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, etc.
Give Putin another few months and ISIS will be gone from Syria and Iraq. (Or we will be in WW3, if the Turks try to shoot down another Russian plane.)
Interesting year coming up. Are you prepared?
Anonymous on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 9:01 pm
The moment the Syrians and Russians are poised to liberate the oil producing areas in Syria currently under US control, sorry, ‘ISIS’ control, expect to see a sudden and inexplicable uptick in the accuracy and motivation of the US air farce to bomb soon-to-be-Syrian-again oil facilities. Only under these circumstances will the US stop bombing empty buildings, piles of existing rubble, or desert sand, will they suddenly be able to locate and hit all those not-ISIS oil facilities.
Or, alternately. If the US manages to drag out the conflict,IOW, the status-quo atm, and the areas under US\ISIS control stay the way they are now, expect the full might of the ‘allied coalition’ to destroy few if any oil facilities, much less ‘ISIS’ itself. The US and GCC will want those for later use if they somehow manage to ‘win’ Syria.
The USrael, and its puppets have a great and enduring respect for the sanctity of oil facilities(ones they control or hope to at any rate). They have far less when it comes to schools, power plants, water works, roads, police stations museums, gov’t buildings etc. ‘Allied’ air forces, for whatever reason, seem to have few troubles locating and destroying those kinds of targets.
farmlad on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 9:32 pm
why bomb the oil truck convoys? Just collect the payment before it ever leaves Israel.
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:58 am
The Turks are ultimately in charge of Syria and Northern Iraq. They have an Army of 410,000. The Russians and Americans are cancelling each other out as outside powers. Air power does not control terrain. The Syrian army is a shell and Iran and Hezbollah are too small. Neither the US or Russia have complete freedom of movement without Turkish acquiescence.
I love how the Russophiles brag about Putin and criticize the Turks for corruption. Putin is the most corrupt man in the world when one considers the scale of his ill-gotten booty. Erdogan is not stupid why should the rest of the world engage in massive and overt corruption at every level and he not get his share?
http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Turkey
GregT on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 5:01 am
Hopefully there is a God Davy. If so, I’ll be right up there front stage testifying against your sorry ass.
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 6:36 am
Folks, since I am sure you prefer not to read redundant repetitious and petty attacks that offer nothing enlightening I will not respond to Greg’s petty attack. There you go Greg you got last word.
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 7:45 am
We all thought Ukraine was going to get the gas valve shut off now it is Turkey. It appears Turkey has a memorandum of understanding with Oman for LNG to counter that. I imagine the timing and scale are an issue. It should be interesting if the situation did deteriorated to a cut off of supplies how Turkey would adapt. This could be the start of the resource wars we have discussed here on multiple occasions.
“Turks fling ‘dung’ at President Erdogan, mull life without Russian gas”
https://www.rt.com/news/324894-turkey-russian-gas-dung/
https://www.lngworldnews.com/tag/turkey/
joe on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 8:04 am
It should be obvious to anyone with a brain, that nobody knows what’s going on there. We do know 2 very important facts ,1 that Bush/Blair lied through their rotten teeth to get in there, 2 That they sat by looking as they dismantled all civil institutions and allowed sectarianism to tear Iraq apart.
Obama pulling out might even have been part of the plan to spread insanity all over the ME, and to North Africa where we helped jihadists take out Gaddafi and looked on when they stole the Libyan armies weapons to put them into ISIS hands.
IT’S ALL OUR DOING GUYS, MAKE NO MISTAKE.
JuanP on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 8:39 am
Davy “We all thought Ukraine was going to get the gas valve shut off now it is Turkey.” Who is we all, Davy? I definitely didn’t. Russia’s government has gone out of its way to fulfill all international contracts to the letter. It is part of its central strategy of respecting and abiding by international law and leading by example.
Davy, being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn.
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 8:48 am
Sorry, Juan if I upset your hypersensitivity. I know you are our resident Putin expert Russophile. Do you accept my deepest apologies? What may I do to make good for the ignorance you were forced to endure? Is there some penance I could offer? That had to be such a bad experience for someone as smart and sophisticated as you are. ^<^
JuanP on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 9:18 am
Goodbye! I want to thank all forum members for allowing me to stay connected to humanity for a few more years through our interactions.
This forum is an amazing place with some of the smartest, most knowledgeable people I have ever met and I have enjoyed my time here a lot, but I no longer enjoy it.
Thanks once more! Goodbye! Proud to have met most of you! This is my last post! Over and out! 😉
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 9:24 am
Its been fun Juan, bye and good luck. Remember the offer for you to visit my doomstead still stands from 2 1/2 years ago.
rockman on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 9:29 am
Juan – I hope you reconsider. I’m sure many here, in addition to the Rockman, have appreciated tour posts.
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 10:32 am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-06/turkey-detains-russian-ships-black-sea-blasts-moscow-brandishing-rocket-launcher-str
We are in the midst of a potentially dangerous escalation of brinkmanship in the ME!
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:50 pm
Is Iraq being carved up by circumstances?
“Turkey Boosts Troops in Northern Iraq, Ignoring Protests”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-06/turkey-bolsters-military-numbers-in-northern-iraq-hurriyet-says
“Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu reiterated that the deployment of troops was in response to invitations from the central government as well as the governor’s office in Mosul. “Our soldiers are training national guards as well as Peshmergas who will struggle against Islamic State in that region,” he said on Sunday.
Turkey has trained 2,500 troops from the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and 1,250 Arab troops, and aims to increase this number to 14,000 troops, the pro-government Sabah reported, citing people it didn’t identify. Sunni Arabs, a minority that ruled Iraq until the ouster of Saddam Hussein in 2003, accuse the federal government of marginalizing them.
The Turkish deployment highlights the country’s complex ties with Kurdish groups in the region. While Ankara supports Barzani’s Kurdish Regional Government, it considers the PKK, a group seeking autonomy for Kurds in Turkey, as well as its Syrian affiliates, as terrorist organizations.
The “troop deployment in northern Iraq serves as a deterrent” against attempts by groups including the PKK to expand their influence in northern Iraq, according to Mehmet Kaya, head of the Tigris Communal Research Center in Diyarbakir, a Kurdish-dominated city in southeast Turkey.
“There have been cold winds between PKK and Barzani lately,” he said by phone.”
GregT on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 2:42 pm
“Is Iraq being carved up by circumstances?”
No. It was carved up purposefully during the illegal US led invasion of 2003. Mission accomplished.
onlooker on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 3:37 pm
Exactly, in the vacuum of chaos the vultures sweep in and alliances are made and booty is divided, oil booty that is.
Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 7:47 pm
“Iraq May Seek “Direct Military Intervention From Russia” To Expel Turkish Troops”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-06/iraq-may-seek-direct-military-intervention-russia-expel-turkish-troops
Turks, Kurds, Nato, and various Iraq/Syrian Sunni
Vs
Syria, Iran, Hezbolla, Iraq Shia, Russia
Lubricate that with oil
What do you get?
Stay tuned.
makati1 on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 10:10 pm
Recent news:
“…On Saturday, Russia accused the US of participating in a cover-up.
“Our colleagues from the State Department and the Pentagon have confirmed that the photo-proof, which we presented at a briefing [on December 2], of the origin and destination of the stolen oil, coming from the areas controlled by the terrorists, is authentic. However, the US claim that they ‘don’t see the border crossings with tanker trucks crossing the border,’ raises a smile, if only, because the photos are still images,”
Major General Igor Konashenkov, a Defense Ministry spokesman said.
“We advise the American side to have a look at how the tanker trucks not only drive through checkpoints at the Turkish border, but pass through them without even stopping.”
As RT notes, an unnamed US State Department official confirmed to Reuters on Friday that the Russian photos of thousands of oil tanker trucks in Syria were authentic [but] stressed that he hasn’t seen “the imagery of the border crossing with trucks crossing the border, and that’s because [the US doesn’t] believe it exists.”…
http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-turns-the-screws-on-the-west-putin-accuses-washington-of-isis-oil-coverup/5493943
The drums of nuclear war are beating ever louder…
makati1 on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 11:35 pm
First time I have seen this in the news…
“Is The United States Safe To Travel To? Australian Lawmaker Warns Travelers About US Gun Violence…”[Over 300] mass shootings in the USA so far this year but about 80 a day you don’t hear about,”…
http://www.ibtimes.com/united-states-safe-travel-australian-lawmaker-warns-travelers-about-us-gun-violence-2210755
I get “scare tactic” stuff from the US Embassy all the time about traveling to this or that country. About time someone starts to target the US as an unsafe place to visit.
Boat on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 12:12 am
mak,
We will miss your visits to the US but somehow we will adjust.
Davy,
Turks, Kurds, Nato, and various Iraq/Syrian Sunni
Vs
Syria, Iran, Hezbolla, Iraq Shia, Russia
Lubricate that with oil
What do you get?
Did you forget Egypt, Saudi along with smaller important rich Sunnie countries?
I always wondered why GW chose Shiite over Sunnie when invading Iraq. Would have made much more sense.
makati1 on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 2:35 am
Boat, I’m safer here on Manila’s streets than you are on yours. You have rogue cops, a drugged up pack of neighbors with guns and a government out to kill you by any means possible. I’ll be glad when I no longer have to return to the American gulag.
Enjoy!
Davy on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 5:14 am
Back to your old extremism Mak. We give the board battles a whole 24 hours break then you are back on a roll. You are a piece of work.
Davy on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 5:56 am
Mak, on your Russian accusations there is of course more to it. What the Russians vetted to the MSM is just the usual consumption for the sheeples. What is really going on is a polarization of this military action and broader war. Mak, we know you are pro-Russian and anti-American so we have to take what you say with agenda filters in mind.
I see the last card beginning to drop as the US slides in with Turkey and the Kurds. It has not happened completely but it appears Iraq with the heavy influence of the Iranians and Shia militias may push the Shia Iraqis out of cooperation with the Americans or should it be both the Turks pushing the Americans into cooperation and Shia out.
This will come down to a classic standoff that, lets us all hope, eventually is settled by negotiations. Will this area be carved up along the lines of religion, ethnicity, and alliances? I see no way either side can make much more headway other than establishing boundaries and alliances. Russia and Iran against Nato and the Turks. Kurds and the Sunni’s of all stripes will be foot soldiers for the asymmetric battles for the Turk and Nato side. The Russian’s and Syria have Iranian special forces and Hezbollah. Let us not forget the other Sunni powers and of course the Israelis. Is this not a fascinating conflict? This is all the more reason it is becoming potentially horrible.
I will point out The Syrian coalition has not finished their work in the west of the country so this consolidation could go on for a time. At some point the Syrian coalition will surely have the west mopped up and will look east. It is at this point it will get interesting.
We will have the Iraq Shia and Iran on one side and the Syrian coalition on the other with Turks, Nato, Kurds, and Sunni of all stripes in the middle. At this point will it become a WWI trench warfare type situation of asymmetric warfare? Proxy battles by the foot soldiers with support by the large powers yet not much movement on the ground. It will be hard for the Shia to overrun the Sunni areas except by ethnic cleansing. I am sure this will happen around the edges but I doubt significantly. The results will be more destruction of the Sunni areas. The potential is there for large scale war destroying major sources of oil. This is truly dangerous.
The most significant force is the Turks with their 410,000 man army. When they move into territory they will not be dislodged especially if they have Nato support except by WWIII. Those of you who want to take sides this is a war with blood on all sides. This will increasingly turn into a resource war for a chunk of the remaining oil in northern Iraq and Syria. Don’t forget we have the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates. We have the Black Sea with the Bosporus and Russian gas wild card.
What I said above is just an observation with a touch of fiction. I am no expert nor do the experts know what is going on here. Do the major powers know? This is almost like a self-organizing event evolving beyond control. I have been following this for some time now and we can see some trends. I am also curious if this does shape up to be a Shia against Sunni standoff with major powers taking sides, will the Sunni powers eliminate the most radical elements on the Sunni side? This Sunni alliance has the problem and the danger of terrorism by ISIS disrupting the alliance. The ability to end radical ISIS is there if the will becomes necessary.
GregT on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 4:46 pm
Take your blinders off Davy. The quagmire in the Middle East has been caused by the US oligarchy in their plans for total global domination, or a NWO if you like. Your country is being used for military might, and cannon fodder, nothing more.
“The global domination agenda is a plan by powerful private bankers to take over all our primary systems (money, energy, food, media, etc.) and to establish a sole global authority – with themselves in charge. They use the media, central banks, multinational corporations, governments, major foundations, and international agencies such as the IMF and World Bank to implement their strategies. So far they have successfully brought down countries across the globe, including Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Argentina, Tanzania, Indonesia, Brazil, Poland, Mexico, Bolivia, Thailand, Iceland, the Soviet Union, Japan, Greece and scores of others. They are now attempting to dismantle the U.S. by collapsing the dollar and making sure Americans are in debt they can’t repay.”
You have either been fooled Davy, or you are complicit. I’m guessing the latter.
GregT on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 4:49 pm
Oh ya,
And nice job bullying Juan off of the board Davy. He was one of the rational voices here. Way to go.
Davy on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 5:09 pm
Greg, you are pathetic. We had a degree of peace then you decided to open up the blood letting. I guess you don’t know how to take responsibility either. We are to blame Greg. Get bored today so you start looking for a fight. Why not take a time out and try again. People on this board don’t want to read the personal attacks. I guess you don’t give a shit.
GregT on Mon, 7th Dec 2015 7:03 pm
I only care about the truth Davy, and as long as you keep spouting BS, I will continue to call you out.