The future of nations is not written in the stars but in their demographics. In particular, a futurist can study national fertility rates, urbanisation trends and the age structure of population groups to get a picture of a country’s long-term future.
Remarkable polymath Benjamin Franklin was one of the founding fathers of America and, back in the 1770s, he enjoyed unbridled optimism about the future of his nation, which at the time was still overwhelmingly rural and comparatively “backward”. Why, then, was his prognosis so rosy?
America’s birth-rate, he reasoned, was double that of Europe’s. Today, the position in America has been reversed and there are no grounds for any of Franklin’s demographic optimism. Between 1990-2002, the crude birth rate in the US declined by 17%. Similar declines are happening right across the developed and developing world. Before discussing this in more detail, let’s paint in broad brushstrokes the background for understanding the world’s current demographics.
The following table shows the population for each region of the world, in millions, followed by the annual rate of increase (%) of population for the years 2010-2015:
Asia (including Middle East): 4,254,524; 1.0 (rate of increase)
Africa: 1,083,524: 2.5 (rate of increase)
Europe: 741,971; 0.1 (rate of increase)
Latin America & the Caribbean: 609,807; 1.1 (rate of increase)
North America: 352,471; 0.8 (rate of increase)
Oceania (Australia, NZ, Polynesia, etc):37,775; 1.4 (rate of increase)
World: 7,080,072; 1.1 (average rate of increase)
Table 1: World Population at 2012 (Sources: UN Demographic Yearbook 2012;
UN Population & Vital Statistics Report Series A, Vol. LXVI)
The stand-out feature of a general picture of population trends is the astonishing discrepancy between underlying demographics and the current distribution of global power and wealth. It’s this disconnect which highlights the spaces in which the international order is going to shift in the coming decades. One can map international influence against population profiles to highlight this incongruity.
Observe in Table 1 that only Africa’s rate of population increase is significantly higher than the rather meagre global average of 1.1% per annum. Populations outside Africa and parts of Asia are just not increasing with any kind of vigour. You will also note that Africa and Asia (including the Middle East) together make up just over 75% of the world’s population at 5,338,048. By contrast, Europe makes up 10.5% of the world, Latin America & the Caribbean 9%, North America 5% and Oceania 0.5%.
But something else is interesting here. There is a complete mismatch between these population sizes and the distribution of global geo-political power today.
For example, if one estimates global economic and political influence by regions, it might well look something like this:
Figure 1: Estimated Global Influence by Region (Source: author)
In Figure 1, the dominant powers are North America and Europe, with 35% and 25% of global influence respectively. Next comes Africa and Asia together providing approximately 25% of the influence, Latin America & the Caribbean a further 10% and Oceania fighting above its demographic weight division at 5%.
Now, let’s turn to underlying population sizes for a completely different picture.
Figure 2: Composition of World Population by Region (Source: author)
North America, with 35% of the influence, has 5% of the global population. Europe, with 25% of the influence, has 10.5% of the population. Africa and Asia, with only 25% of the influence, have 75% of the population. Latin America & the Caribbean have 10% of the influence and 9% of the population. And Oceania has 5% of the influence but only 0.5% of the population. This skewed distribution of power is bound to change on a large scale throughout this century.
Population sizes indicate the potential magnitude of an economy and its markets, in the sense that its citizens are the producers, the consumers and the tax payers. Of course, urbanisation and development levels have to be factored in, too, as do resources. In addition, the age structure of the population, whether it is young and growing or ageing and declining, is a key consideration. Crudely, though, the following mapping of global influence over population size provides a context for speculation on future shifts of influence, highlighting from which regions they are most likely to come.
Table 2: Relative influence versus size to indicate potential shifts of influence (Source: author)
Table 2 is only a rough guide to potential future shifts of international influence based on the simple equation that size matters when it comes to economies, especially, as mentioned, when seen in the context of developmental factors and the age profile of the population in question. (You are welcome to play around with the figures for estimated global influence by region to come up with your own “map”). The differentials between influence and size in Table 2 are:
Africa & Asia = 50% +
Europe = -14.5%
Latin America & the Caribbean = -1%
North America = -30%
Oceania = -5.5%
These differentials show the conditions for extensive changes of power in the coming decades. It’s an X-ray of a future changing international order.
The population sizes for the countries in the BRICS trade bloc of developing economies, for example, are:
Brazil: 190.7 million
Russia: 143.4 million
India: 1.2 billion
China: 1.3 billion
South Africa: 51 million
If one takes the “CIA” regions of the world – China/India/Africa – the population sizes are:
China: 1.3 billion
India: 1.2 billion
Africa: 1 billion
= 3.5 billion (about 50% of world’s population)
The size of potential new and extended markets in these CIA regions is vast and there is likely going to be an increasing wealth base and growing influence across these regions.
I regard demographics as one of the most impressive of all the social sciences. This discipline largely deals with real, socially significant population data. Its figures are squarely based on facts. This allows for robust, evidence-based reasoning. With demographics, we’re looking into a radar of the future.
Which brings me to a disturbing reality I wish to share with you today. Like the inferences made from the data in Table 2, this fact may appear, at first glance, to be counter-intuitive. I referred earlier in looking at Table 1 to the meagre global rates of annual population increases this century. Birth-rates are falling all over the world in deeply entrenched trends rooted in the very nature of modern society. A human depopulation time bomb is ticking. Human population growth is decreasing at a rate which will imperil the global economy, destabilise some societies and ultimately threaten humanity’s prospects for survival.
US demographer and senior fellow at the New America Foundation, Phillip Longman, explains: “World population growth has already slowed dramatically over the last generation and is headed on course for absolute decline. Indeed, forecasts by the United Nations and others show the world population growth rate could well turn negative during the lifetimes of people now in their 40sand 50s.” (Longman, P. The Empty Cradle (2004):7)
Longman is warning us that population growth for humanity is likely to turn negative around mid-century. This means the world’s total population size would start to decrease in absolute terms. If such a trend ever became irreversible, it would eventually lead to the extinction of the human race.
Figure 3: The rise of world population to its projected peak in 2050
Figure 3 indicates that the total human population may peak in 2050 at nine billion and thereafter decline year after year, decade after decade, generation after generation. It’s not a comforting thought that Population Peak for the human race is probably just up ahead of us.
Shrinking nations and families conjure up nightmarish scenarios of a declining world population. If sub-replacement fertility rates across the world continue compounding century after century, it’s a mathematical certainty that the human race will one day become extinct.
The core fact is that global fertility rates are half what they were in 1972. This is disconcerting given that fertility rates are what keep the human race reproducing itself. The fall in global fertility is the key global problem to address in this century.
The following data together brings home the extent of this trend, bearing in mind that the replacement fertility rate is 2.1 children per women and that, at the start of the 20th century, the global fertility rate was higher than five children per woman of child-bearing age:
*The world’s population growth rate has fallen from 2% p.a. in the late 1960s to just over 1% today, and is predicted to slow further to 0.7% by 2030 and then 0.4% by 2050. (Magnus, The Age of Ageing (2009): 33)
*62 countries, making up almost half the world’s population, now have fertility rates at, or below, the replacement rate of 2.1, including most of the industrial world and Asian powers like China, Taiwan and South Korea. (Magnus, The Age of Ageing (2009): 40)
*Most European countries are on a path to population ageing and absolute population decline (see Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 61), in fact, no country in Europe is demographically replacing its population (see Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 177)
– “If Europe’s current fertility rate of around 1.5 births per woman persists until 2020, this will result in 88 million fewer Europeans by the end of the century.” (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 67)
*Spain has the lowest fertility rates ever recorded
*Russia, and most of the Balkans and Eastern Europe, are facing a fall in the size of their populations of between 13-35 % in the next four decades, with China’s starting to fall between 2030- 2035 and Thailand’s after about 2040 (Magnus, The Age of Ageing (2009) 158)
* Japan’s fertility rate is 1.4 children per women, one of the lowest
*China’s fertility rate is between 1.5 and 1.65
*Cuba has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world
*Italy, once the seat of the Roman Empire that ruled most of the known world, has a disastrously low fertility rate of 1.2
*Since 1975, Brazil’s fertility rate has dropped nearly in half to just 2.27 children per woman (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 32)
*By mid-century, China could lose 20-30% of its population every generation (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 11)
*By 2050, the median age of the world’s population will be 38 years, in Europe, 47, China, 45, in North America and Asia about 41 (Magnus, The Age of Ageing (2009) xxi-xxii)
It’s the scale of the depopulation problem that is daunting. Longman explains: “All told, some 59 countries, comprising roughly 44 percent of the world’s total population, are currently not producing enough children to avoid population decline, and the phenomenon continues to spread. By 2050, according to the latest United Nations projections, 75 percent of all countries, even in underdeveloped regions, will be reproducing at below-replacement levels.” (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 26) Consequently, he’s expecting the world population to peak around 2050 (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 27).
A silent demographic revolution is happening to our world.
Associated with human depopulation is the inevitable ageing of the global population (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) xiii). This will have dramatic, long-term impacts on economies. Population trends drive changes across a range of fields from economics and finances to politics, from sociology to international relations. Ageing populations spend less and produce less, depressing business demand. Societies in Asia, Europe and the Americas are turning grey and there are concerns about the drain on public expenditure and the loss of national productivity which will ensue.
Population ageing will place added burdens on both government finances and the working generation. This affects the economy directly: “There is a reasonably robust theory…that suggests people accumulate wealth between the ages of 30 and 60 for retirement, after which they tend to save less or ‘dis-save’.” (Magnus, The Age of Ageing (2009) 114)
Longman establishes a link between demography and economics early in his landmark book The Empty Cradle: “Capitalism has never flourished except when accompanied by population growth.” (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 4) Businesses, he says, go where populations are growing, not where they’re declining. Why? Because there’ll be more demand for their goods: “More people create more demand for the products capitalists sell, and more supply of the labor capitalists buy.” (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 4). Here’s the simple equation illustrating the loop between demographics and economics: “Because of today’s low birth-rates, there will be fewer workers available in the future to produce the goods and services consumed by each retiree.” (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 19)
And here’s the result for the economy: “The working population of the United States essentially will wind up paying one out of every five dollars it earns just to support retirees, while simultaneously trying to finance more and more years of higher education…”, creating financial disincentives for families to produce many children. (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 22.)
A stagnant population, in other words, is likely to produce a stagnant economy. When there’s depopulation, investment and business confidence eventually vanish, along with economic growth: “Without population growth providing an ever increasing supply of workers and consumers, economic growth would depend entirely on pushing more people into the work force and getting more out of them each day.” (Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004) 5)
In sum, then, there are significant declines in birth-rates right across the world, sometimes well below replacement levels. The depopulation time bomb isn’t science fiction, it’s a matter of demographic fact.
The populations of major nations like Japan and Russia are already shrinking in size at worrying rates.
Japan, once the 2nd largest economy in the world, is now into its third decade of sluggish growth due to its twin curses of declining population and productivity and population ageing. In desperation, it’s turning to robotics to inject new life into its zombie economy.
Similarly, Russia is facing its own depopulation bomb. It’s estimated to lose between 13-35% of its population size in the next four decades. In 1937, Russia had a population of 162 million. This has fallen to 142 million. It’s predicted to fall further to about 80-90 million by mid-century. Between 1937-2050, then, the country’s population size could have halved. At a time when it’s once again emerging as an energy giant, its demographics, ironically, are undermining its future prospects. The demographic challenge of halting depopulation will be complicated by the presence of an estimated 14.5 million Muslims in the country which may threaten unity and heighten ethnic tensions within its borders.
As a futurist, I have to admit my blood runs cold when I consider such overwhelming and conclusive evidence of humanity losing its appetite to reproduce itself.
peakyeast on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 8:12 pm
“As a futurist, I have to admit my blood runs cold when I consider such overwhelming and conclusive evidence of humanity losing its appetite to reproduce itself.”
So does my blood when I see ignorant f.cks like this author.
He obviously doesnt realize the limits to resources and understands that with a smaller population the pie gets bigger for the remainders all the time.
The only people it can be remotely bad for is those that speculate in “money” and is doing nothing of real value compared to their load on society.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 8:14 pm
What a crock of self-serving bullshit!
“As a futurist, I have to admit my blood runs cold when I consider such overwhelming and conclusive evidence of humanity losing its appetite to reproduce itself.”
Is this guy a eunuch? He obviously didn’t notice how the world got 7+ billion of us in the first place. Too much reproduction. Not too little. No chance, barring nuclear war or some virulent plague, will we go extinct in the distant future. Well, maybe, but it won’t be because we lost our animal instincts to reproduce. It will be because we destroyed our life support system.
Rodster on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 8:16 pm
When you royally fuck up your environment and gobbleally most of your resources, kill off most of the animals and fish, threaten the Bee population, yeah you’ve got a problem.
The flip side to all of this is that in order for the current money system to function properly you need exponential growth of everything including humans.
And this is not just a Western problem, it’s global.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 10:02 pm
Rodster, why do you need growth of the human population? Not true. All you need is growth of demand. A billion people with money to spend is much better for the economy than 7 billion in poverty.
For instance, our farm overseer’s total annual income is about P180,000 or about $4,000. How does his family of 5 count for more in the world economy than a US family of 3 with an income of say, $40,000? Or even a single person with the same $40,000 income?
seen from sirius on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 6:04 am
100 000 years ago during the wurmian period, the total human population went down to as low as 10 000, so it was an actual endangered species! but loo and behold, we are more than 7 bn. now. So I believe the OP should stop worrying . Humanity -save a catastrophic event of unheard magnitude-is not nearly at risk to die off.
Kenz300 on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 9:24 am
Around the world we can see an energy crisis, a water crisis, a food crisis, a migration crisis, a financial crisis, a Climate Change crisis, a pollution crisis, a declining fish stocks crisis and an over population crisis.
The worlds worst environmental problem is over population yet the worlds adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house, and provide energy and water for every year.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
Sissyfuss on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 12:40 pm
A more ignorant, cornucrappian rant than this would be almost impossible to dredge up. He fears of extinction because of his linear comprehension of mathmatical progression. Please alert Dr Bartlett. We have an exponential threat of ignorance growing amongst the canaille
GregT on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 1:15 pm
“As a futurist, I have to admit my blood runs cold when I consider such overwhelming and conclusive evidence of humanity losing its appetite to reproduce itself.”
Go forth and copulate! Apparently adding 1 million more mouths to feed every 5 days, on a dying planet with dwindling resources isn’t enough. The solution to all of our problems is to add more people, because our species is so exceptional!
yukonfisher on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 2:01 pm
The truly terrifying aspect of this article is that this kind of thinking is reflected in mainstream politics.
I challenge anyone to successfully have a sustainable population policy discussion with a policy maker.
Hawkcreek on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 4:18 pm
I am sure politicians are aware of all this. Why else do they want to make sure unlimited immigration is legal for all. Get your slaves while they are still available – this weekend only!!
Bob Owens on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 5:08 pm
This is great news! Outside of the Author’s strange projections of his own concerns, that is. The quicker we can reduce our populations, the better. All women the World over should vow to only have 1 child each. We have the birth control methods to make this possible with the least amount of problems. All our other problems would benefit from this.
gdubya on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 5:57 pm
” the world’s total population size would start to decrease in absolute terms. If such a trend ever became irreversible, it would eventually lead to the extinction of the human race.”
I’m usually open minded with coherent argument, but this guy is a moron. Although his statement does appear to be logically correct.
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 6:30 pm
No need to worry kids, the pin on the depopulation grenade has already been pulled and we are merely waiting for the BOOM! The pin cannot be put back in – it’s gone for good. Positive self reinforcing loops are underway and speeding up.
“Too Furious For Human Intervention” — Climate Feedbacks Spur Out of Control Wildfires From Indonesia to Brazil
“There is “no way human intervention can put out the fires,” Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar, Malaysia’s Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, to the Australian Broadcasting Company on the issue of Indonesian wildfires in a recent Weather Channel Report.”
“Outbreaks of Equatorial wildfires. It’s something that can happen during strong El Ninos. These periods of warming in the Equatorial Pacific can set off a chain of events leading to dangerous heatwaves, droughts and wildfires breaking out all over the Earth’s mid-section.
But put a strong El Nino into the context of the overall human-forced warming of the global environment by 1 C hotter than 1880s values and you start to get into some serious trouble. The added heat amplifies the warming already being set off by El Nino conditions, it worsens droughts, and it provides an environment for some ridiculously intense wildfire outbreaks. Outbreaks of a strength and ferocity we would not have seen had we not forced the world to warm by so much.”
“11,000 Forest Fires in Brazil So Far
Last year, during one of Brazil’s worst droughts on record, more than 7,000 wildfires raged over Brazil’s forested regions. The rate of burning was so great that many scientists and environmentalists wondered if human warming was already starting to take down the massive and majestic rainforest — an impact that was not considered likely until the earth warmed up by another 1-3 degrees C on top of the heat forcing we’ve already provided.
But though the Amazon was left smoldering after a terrible drought and wildfire outbreak last year, the damage continued to increase through 2015. By early October, and with nearly 3 months of 2015 still remaining, more than 11,000 wildfires were reported to have burned in Brazil and the Amazon — a 47 percent increase in the number of wildfires from the severe burning of 2014. A stark statistic that will only grow worse as El Nino continues to spike global and Equatorial temperatures into new record ranges. A wretched example of how human-forced climate change can really turn El Nino into a monstrous weather phenomena.”
more – oh hell ya
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/21/too-furious-for-human-intervention-climate-feedbacks-spur-out-of-control-wildfires-from-indonesia-to-brazil/
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 6:35 pm
Plan B? – Thelma and Louise
Coal renaissance means switching to plan B on climate change
“Emissions are rising and rising. Instead of decarbonising, we are carbonising our economy”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730304-400-coal-renaissance-means-switching-to-plan-b-on-climate-change
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 6:43 pm
During autumn king tides, nuisance flooding becomes chronic flooding in Miami area
“King tides. Nuisance flooding. Coastal flood advisory. Road closed. These are phrases that are commonly heard and seen this time of year in the Miami area, especially in low-lying Miami Beach. The highest astronomical tides of the year are coming up in the next couple of weeks, and if these past few are any indication of what’s to come, the Miami area could see some of the highest flood levels that have been observed in decades — even on a perfectly sunny day.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/20/during-autumn-king-tides-nuisance-flooding-becomes-chronic-flooding-in-miami-area/
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 6:45 pm
X-ray technology reveals California’s forests are in for a radical transformation
“Biologist Greg Asner first heard the numbers in April, but they did little to prepare him for what he saw.
The Forest Service had estimated that nearly 12.5 million trees in the state’s southern and central forests were dead. But as Asner peered down upon the same forests from his airplane at 6,000 feet, he saw something far worse.
California’s drought-parched landscape was poised for a radical transformation. Much of the low-elevation forests near Mt. Pinos in the Los Padres National Forest and in Pinnacles National Park were going to disappear if trends continued.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-dying-forests-20151020-story.html
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 6:51 pm
Sure the Asians are going to be just fine……. as soon as they figure out salt water farming.
Climate Change: Mekong Delta heads for troubled waters
“The endless green fields scored by the river’s nine tributaries, which the Vietnamese call “Nine Dragons”, explain why this area is one of the world’s major food baskets.
It houses the richest inland fishery and accounts for more than a fifth of the world’s rice exports, although looks can be deceptive.
Encroaching sea water from the south, a proliferation of hydro dams in the north and large-scale sand mining are endangering the delta, officials warn.
As a result, an alarming 500 hectares (5 km2) of land is being lost to soil erosion every year, they say.
“The sea level rise is bringing up water so fast that our defences against it have failed,” said Ky Quang Vinh, director of the Climate Change Coordination Office, a government agency in Vietnam’s Can Tho, the most populous city in Mekong.
“We’ve stopped growing mangrove trees on the coast because they only grow if the sea level rise stays below 1.6mm (0.06in) a year, and our work shows that in Vietnam it’s going up by 5mm (0.2in).”
“Several of our sea dykes have collapsed too.”
Unstoppable sea water”
Salt water has been found 60km (37.3 miles) inland.
more
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34407061
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 7:10 pm
BAU = Depopulation 101
After record-shattering September, 2015 in commanding lead for Earth’s hottest year on record
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/21/after-record-shattering-september-2015-in-commanding-lead-for-earths-hottest-year-on-record/
September Was the Most Extreme Month in 136 Years of Heat Records
It doesn’t get any hotter than this… yet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-10-21/september-was-the-most-extreme-month-in-136-years-of-heat-records
makati1 on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 7:39 pm
Ap, that is true of all coasts, not just Asian. Salt water is entering the drinking water of a lot of US cities like Miami. They may not be losing farm land but water is more important, I think. The Us West Coast is also in trouble.
http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/here-comes-the-sea-the-struggle-to-keep-the-ocean-out-of-californias-coastal-aquifers/
“The land is heavy with a harvest that will soon be trucked to grocery stores and fruit stands throughout the United States. The Pacific, in the late afternoon sun, dazzles like camera flashes. But the ocean also is stealthy. It creeps inland in less obvious, more destructive ways. Beneath the berry patch, a rising tide of salty water threatens one of the most lucrative and productive farm regions in the country. Coastal wells are slowly being poisoned with rising concentrations of chloride….”
Davy on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 8:10 pm
An island environment: Saltwater intrusion, groundwater management and water privatization in Cebu
http://gradworks.umi.com/34/94/3494983.html
“Cebu is the second largest city in the Philippine archipelago and is an ideal place to study these issues for several reasons. It is continuing to experience strong population growth. Also, by all accounts the groundwater in this metropolitan area of over two million people is rapidly deteriorating due to saltwater intrusion. The suspected causative agent is over-pumping, but it is hard to quantify because of incomplete records. It is estimated that withdraws from the approximately 82,000 private wells equals the amount pumped by the Metropolitan Cebu Water District’s (MCWD) 108 wells (Walag 2007).
On nearby Olango Island—part of provincial Cebu—about 90% of the wells are saline. Cebu City itself appears headed for the same fate without active intervention. In addition to salt water being drawn into the aquifer, water quality is also being degraded by bacteriological and chemical contaminants that are being drawn down into the aquifer due to the lack of sewage treatment (Walag 2007).”
Davy on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 8:18 pm
“Dried up rice field due to an El Nino-induced drought, in the Philippines.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/a-huge-el-nino-is-spreading-all-kinds-of-mayhem-around-the-world#media-1
apneaman on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 8:30 pm
I know mak. Believe me, I know way too fucking much. It was just one more piece of doom. I get around to most of them sooner or later. Add them up and the cumulative effect is a nightmare. Tipping points? Hear that a lot, but once something cannot go back to the way it was, once it’s irreversible, the tipping point has been reached; many have and now it’s becomes a matter of waiting on the lag time for the worst of the consequences. Hell is locked in and everyone can forget about the 2100 or 2075 or 2050 conveniently far off future horseshit. That’s a defence mechanism. A lie we are silently agreeing to tell each other so we will still get out of bed in the morning. Many know it, few will acknowledge it. Especially not anyone in authority or dependant on a pay cheques from them. The reason every scientists or expert or institution ends every press release or interview with some version of “if we don’t change soon” bla bla bla and “there’s still time/hope”. If you don’t say that they don’t put you on air or in print, so they always say it. Another unwritten rule. Get fucking real. Apes change? Since when?
SilentRunning on Wed, 21st Oct 2015 8:55 pm
With *only* 1% growth rate, in only another 10,000 years the human population would be so enormous, that every atom in the **ENTIRE OBSERVABLE UNIVERSE** would have to be part of a human body.
The above sounds like absurd hyperbole – but it is a mathematical/physical fact, that you can verify for yourself with an ordinary calculator.
I don’t know how people who think that endless population growth is somekind of a GREAT THING can reconcile reality with their preposterous and ultimately deranged/destructive belief system.
makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 9:21 am
Ap, many like to point to the other person and dream that that person or country will suffer more. I guess it is a coping mechanism necessary to keep some sanity. Yes, I do think the West will suffer more than most in this world because they have the most to lose. And the Us more than that as it has so many problems and has had the longest time at the party.
I accept the reality around me and know that my choice of refuge may not be perfect, but it is the best option I see out there. I’ve been here in the Ps for over 7 years and I still think I made the right choice.
I see nothing positive about the US and haven’t for at least 14 years. 9/11 opened my eyes when I saw the controlled demolition of the Twin Towers and heard the lies that followed. Everything after that was/is downhill. I only have concern for my family and friends there, but I am helpless to change anything.
Davy on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 9:47 am
Mak, if that is true why do you make it a life’s mission to tell me my refuge is not a good choice. You have mental issues both with your hatred and resentment towards the U.S. and your denial of your agenda of you are right and we are wrong.
You can’t win this game Mak, for every negative U.S. link there are plenty similar ones on Asia. I am a firefighter and you are a fire. I will sling shit back in your face when you sling it my way. You can whine nationalism all you like but everyone here on a regular basis knows what you are up to. If you would like to moderate then we can clean the board up with relevant information and avoid excessive and extremist comments.
apneaman on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 10:09 am
mak, it’s a random universe and the chances of one being born are so astronomically minute that it is all but improbable. We are here by chance – individually and as a species. If you compare your life circumstances, privileges and statistics – age, access to health care, security, food, income, goodies, etc – to all humans whoever lived and will live, you are a .01%er. You, like many westerners lived the improbable. It’s all gravy baby.
penury on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 1:10 pm
Look around. Please just take few moments to actually look at what is happening in the world. Mass die off of Ocean life. Mass migrations from South to North. Most can currently be blamed on military however, drought, fires, water shortages are all present. Global warming, deny it if you want but, it still will continue. The economy of the world is dependent upon the energy provided and as Short demonstrates the energy is no longer available. Increase population, but reduce demand? Sounds like a deflationary trap to me. Apneaman, appears to have the situation diagnosed properly now we need solutions to these predicaments.
JuanP on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 2:13 pm
“A human depopulation time bomb is ticking. Human population growth is decreasing at a rate which will imperil the global economy, destabilise some societies and ultimately threaten humanity’s prospects for survival.” What a friggin’ moronic argument. Talk about getting things wrong. I had to stop reading there, but noticed other equally stupid points while I scrolled down to read the comments.
GregT on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 2:14 pm
“now we need solutions to these predicaments”
There are no solutions to predicaments penury, only uncomfortable choices. We either stop using fossil fuels, or we don’t. Either way the outcome will not be pleasant.
GregT on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 2:28 pm
you are a .01%er
You may have missed a few zeros after that decimal point Apnea.
JuanP on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 2:36 pm
Apneaman, During the past full moon we had 10 consecutive high tides that flooded Miami Beach from one end to another without any rain involved. I fear the coming King tide, it will be bad. I hope it doesn’t rain while the water is high.
There was a very good article on Miami Beach’s MB magazine on all the multimillion dollar building projects going on right now in the city to raise streets, install one way valves, filters, and pumps on sewage and storm water systems. All systems are being upgraded or replaced because they can’t run on gravity now. I couldn’t find a link to the article online, I read it on print.
All this is not slowing down the Real Estate boom going on down here a bit. There’s cranes in every direction and high rises going up like nothing is wrong. People around have no idea what is going on. I constantly ask people if they know why this is happening and nobody does.
My wife and I were involved for years with planting mangroves and native trees in Biscayne Bay, Florida Bay, and the Florida Keys. We volunteered with a big government program. I helped manage a tree nursery that was part of the program for about a year and we also participated in many tree planting sessions. The program has been suspended. Most of the mangroves we planted didn’t make it, Sea Level Rise and erosion did them in. We buried six foot sections of 1″ PVC pipes two feet in the ground to protect the mangrove seeds, but it was not enough. There are only a few of those mangroves left, maybe 10-15%.
JuanP on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 2:50 pm
Penury, As GregT already pointed out, problems have solutions, predicaments don’t. These issues will not be solved because they are a direct consequence of what we are. We are an arrogant, ignorant, stupid species, with just enough intelligent people thrown in to provide us with the scientific knowledge and technological applications that have allowed the rest of us, fucking morons, to destroy the biosphere. Our predicament is our own nature, and the only solution possible is extinction. People who think we will evolve out of this are simply engaging in mental masturbation and living in denial.
Davy on Thu, 22nd Oct 2015 3:27 pm
We can change somethings. Most of these changes are around the edges. Many involve attitudes and lifestyles.
Many more things we can mitigate and adapt to. This could be a significant part of dealing with our predicaments. Unfortunately, most mitigation will be of the reactive type with less impact then preemptive efforts. Serious mitigation and adaptation would end the status quo. It would involve reinventing society or better yet returning to pre-fossil fuel lifestyles in many cases. This effort could be leveraged by using the best of our modern technology and knowledge where possible.
For the most part we are just going to have to endure a coming descent that may or may not be a painful collapse. That will depend on us and our quality of decision making. I am not optimistic. We have passed the point of no return. Plan your local lifeboat the shit storm is near.