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Page added on October 20, 2015
Appropriate Scarcity
… appealing to people to restrain themselves [by] self-enforced abstinence alone is a waste of time. By and large, we consume as much as our incomes allow…. changes… cannot take place without constraints that apply to everyone rather than everyone else. Manmade global warming cannot be restrained unless we persuade the government to force us to change the way we live.
—George Monbiot, Heat (2006/2009)
The results indicate that the likelihood of paying a positive amount for supporting renewable energy is higher under a mandatory scheme compared to a voluntary payment option in the UK.
—Elcin Akcura, “Mandatory vs. voluntary payment for green electricity,” Ecological Economics (2015)
I believe Monbiot says it true. And Akcura (who knew?) provides research-based confirmation.
I envision fulfilling, challenging, joyful lives within environmental constraints, but I can’t imagine that happening without societal signals to reinforce consistent behavior. If level of consumption is a problem, then scarcity is a necessary part of the solution. In the least disruptive and potentially fairest sense, this means using prices to determine demand. To cut to the conclusion: my favorite example is a carbon tax.
Monbiot’s statement is frightening, Draconian, and an apparent non-starter politically… almost. But the consequence of denying it leads to several futile proposals and viewpoints which permeate the literature, both scholarly and public. They are futile because they do not produce results that are big enough and fast enough to beat back anthropogenic climate change. Hearing them repeatedly frustrates me. These are:
1. We citizens are being sold the idea that economic growth (especially GDP) is good by government bureaucracies that need it to stay alive, and by corporations that want it because they are greedy (e.g., “the 1%”).
2. We are personally acquisitive because of intensive advertising. Otherwise, we would readily embrace “enough is plenty.”
3. A steady state economy will only be achieved when a new human consciousness emerges. That is not exactly imminent, but it’s in sight.
4. Peer pressure will solve the classic (game theoretic?) problems of free riders, defection, and over-riding competitive ambition in general.
The Temple to Ramesses II at Abu Simbel (II). Photo Credit: Institute for the Study of the Ancient World.
The human beings that I observe, work and live with, and love, largely don’t fit these principles. This includes me. We need help. So, about these points:
1. Most of us don’t know or care what GDP is. However, we do have explicit or implicit desires for material/experiential growth at the personal or familial level. Such as: a larger house, a vacation cottage, a new car, a foreign eco-tour, increased travel to visit the grandkids, a secure college fund or retirement package, some new clothes—probably before the old ones wear out. Sum these aspirations over the population and you have pressure for overall growth.
Recently I asked who in my circle at the edge of academia in a progressive college town wants zero personal or professional economic growth. Not soon-to-graduate students looking for the first job. Not immigrants who arrive with almost nothing. Not newlyweds considering starting a family. Not academics building research programs or pursuing tenure. Not college presidents. Not development officers of green non-profit organizations. Not the mayor or city council. And of course not the usual suspects in the business community. I finally concluded that some well-off retirees seem to want zero growth….that’s about it.
2. Watch a TV auto ad and it’s difficult not to suspect—and resent—advertising’s role in fanning the flames of demand. (Mmmmm, a lone car on an otherwise unoccupied road accelerating against the shriek of the engine and the announcer’s deep n’ throaty voice…). But what advertising seduced Pharaoh Ramesses II into carving four 65-foot-tall likenesses of himself from native rock at Abu Simbel ca. 1250 BC? Or the government of Dubai into erecting the 2,722 foot (i.e, 0.52 mile) Burj Khalifa Tower in 2009 AD? I believe essentially all of us are hard-wired to want more of something for some reason. If there is good evidence that advertising is the culprit in overall consumption growth and not just in choosing between spending options, let’s see it.
3. Given the three-millennia separation of the two above construction projects, I think it is wishful thinking to expect Homo sapiens to spontaneously embrace zero growth collectively any time soon.
4. But even if 99+% of us do that, what about the non-cooperators? To the extent that the world is zero-sum (a politically incorrect but applicable description if there really are limits), it takes only a few competitively acquisitive individuals to produce a mess. If the few want more, sooner or later they will destabilize a group of otherwise modest, cooperative individuals. Envy kicks in, or defensive measures to avoid losing. An example of the latter: What to do when the tax bill on your modest abode skyrockets when Ringo Starr and Mick Jagger move in next door (aka the “Aspen effect”)? Try to maintain your modest lifestyle and move 40 miles downriver, or do what it takes to get into the high production/consumption game yourself?
All this brings me back to Monbiot’s bald and bold statement: there is negligible action without effective, broadly felt, implementable…scarcity. In other words, “appropriate scarcity” is not optional; it is necessary. Yes, increasing the price of “bads” is a frequent theme on these pages, but often only as one item in a longish list of principles based on Herman Daly’s powerful writings. Rather, it should be at the top of the list.
There is no question that accomplishing scarcity (for fossil energy, say) by caps and/or taxes is politically, socially, economically, and humanly difficult—a global top-ten red flag. I believe that at the U. S. national level at least, it is feasible. Equity impacts can be minimized by income tax rebates to lower-income households. Other impacts, especially regional, are tougher. In general, moving slowly reduces disruption, but we have scant time. What I hope for is national-level appropriate scarcity of fossil fuels. Done right (a daunting task, to be sure), we can reinforce our own behavior in doing what we (say we) must do to restrain global warming, and have good lives doing it.
11 Comments on "Appropriate Scarcity"
Rodster on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 2:19 pm
The catch 22 is that you need a thriving never ending growing economies around the world in order to keep BAU functioning and in order for an economy to grow it requires cheap fuel. It’s not an easy fix when you can’t fully run an economy off of the sun, wind or water.
Global warming isn’t our only problem as the other elephant in the room is Geoengineering aka weather modification and weather warfare.
drwater on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:12 pm
Good news – A gradually increasing revenue-neutral carbon fee and dividend with an accompanying border tax adjustment accomplishes all of the above AND is actually slightly better than business as usual for GDP and employment.
See http://citizensclimatelobby.org/carbon-fee-and-dividend/
and
http://citizensclimatelobby.org/remi-general-findings/
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:28 pm
Skip all the bullshit and let’s get to the brass tax. Enforced sacrifice can only come from control and rationing of food and fuel. We are heading this way but if we want to get started earlier this is how you do it. Once food and fuel rationing is in place and enforced everything will fall into its place per what will be a long emergency. Poor attitude and lifestyles will evaporate with the new found urgency to survive.
The status quo BAU globally will end. Millions will die for lack of food. This may sound ugly because it is ugly but ugly is called for now. This is going to happen within 10years probably and more likely within 5.
Systematic evolution of multiple critical tipping points will initiate it by force. The powers to be will not and are not capable of this action. My point is think it out like they are and it is going to happen because this is natures way. Know your local and know the basics of survival.
Initially in the end days of petroleum man it will be food and fuel that become the critical item of concern. This will be the case until some kind of effective transition to localism away from globalism takes place. It will be that initial scarcity and dysfunction that will be the most dangerous. Chaos and disorder will turn everything on its head. Think this through now not when it happens.
ghung on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:52 pm
“Done right (a daunting task, to be sure), we can reinforce our own behavior in doing what we (say we) must do to restrain global warming, and have good lives doing it.”
There is no WE when it comes to a collective positive response. Never has been. Societies quit growing when they’re forced to by environmental and resource limits, and/or war. Very few examples out of thousands of societies, historically, where limits to growth were heeded. Our global collection of societies no longer has any examples, at any scale that matters.
@ drwater: Looks OK on paper. The bad news is that humans are about 500% into overshoot relating to the natural carrying capacity of their planet. Unnatural schemes that got us to this point merely accelerate the decline of our biosphere, and unnatural schemes to correct that imbalance are hopeless until human population drops into a range the planet can support.
Nature and physics don’t strike bargains.
claman on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 5:12 pm
Being a newbe here, and coming from a cultural environment where political correctness is rather outspoken, it is really refreshing to hear points of wiev that dare go to the root of the planets and our cultures problems.
It is only a coupple of years ago I started thinking about overpopulation as the main problem. Untill then I was focused on how to solve the problems that OP carried with it.
It was a big emotional and filosofical transsition, that I struggled with a long time, and actually still do…
Well this is beginning to sound like an AA-confession, so I better stop here. Sleep tight
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 5:52 pm
Clam, our hearts will harden with the pain and suffering ahead but we also have the potential for the heroic at the local level. We can be the recon troops to provide a path to less pain and suffering. Stick around we have a lot of valuable experience for anyone new to doom and prep.
The experience we offer is not rocket science but it is a way of life that requires dedication and sacrifice. Nothing we will tell you is a silver bullet but the accumulation of many bullets will offer you some guidance. The most important point to doom and prep is attitude.
You will have to live a surreal experience of living in the status quo to exit the status quo. That in itself is difficult. There are so many minefields of distractions. Few immediate friends and family will be able to relate to you. You will be considered a freak. This is why it is best to stay low key and find a support group much like we have here to connect with.
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 6:27 pm
“Few immediate friends and family will be able to relate to you. You will be considered a freak. This is why it is best to stay low key and find a support group much like we have here to connect with.”
Very well said Davy.
Sissyfuss on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 7:52 pm
How old are you,Davy? You seem wise beyond your years. I, at 65,will not get too far into the next iteration of the matrix but I surmise that people like you
will be one of the new pioneers.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 7:59 pm
“Most of us don’t know or care what GDP is. However, we do have explicit or implicit desires for material/experiential growth at the personal or familial level. Such as: a larger house, a vacation cottage, a new car, a foreign eco-tour, increased travel to visit the grandkids, a secure college fund or retirement package, some new clothes—probably before the old ones wear out. Sum these aspirations over the population and you have pressure for overall growth.”
BS! Those are the aspirations of Westerners and a few wannabees, not humans as a whole. Most humans are only trying to get necessities. Not luxuries.
Maybe the fact that the rest of the world is not submitted to the brainwashing advertising 24/7/365 is the difference? And nothing is going to change that as the 1% will never stop wanting more, more , more until it all collapses and cannot reset. Too late then for any rationing. Burying the dead will be challenging enough. Staying alive will be the order of the day.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 8:29 pm
Sissy, I am in my early 50’s. I want to say I had a rough life but what would be more accurate would be to say I was rough on myself. In other words I learned about life the hard way from trying to do it my way. I was lucky and swum out of all the various swamps I fell into some just barely though.
Anyway I appreciate the compliment. I would like to be an advisor to those around me that one day will wake up to a world nothing like they have ever imagined their world would be like. I would like to be a village elder in a localized post fossil fuel world if am lucky enough to live that long. Stick around sissy and tell us stuff we need to know. We can always use new blood.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 9:00 pm
Getting more and more difficult to prepare in the FSofA…
“Colorado county criminalizes self-reliance: Off-grid living punished like a crime”
Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/051634_Colorado_off-grid_living_self-reliance.html#ixzz3pADGr0zT