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Page added on October 19, 2015
The Club of Rome, almost half a century later
Almost half a century ago, in 1968, Aurelio Peccei convened for the first time the group that was later to be known as the “Club of Rome”. The aim of the group was not what the Club was to become known for, “The Limits to Growth”. At that time, the concept of limits was vague and scarcely understood and the interest of the members was, rather, in an equitable distribution of the resources of the Earth. What moved Aurelio Peccei was the attempt to fight hunger, poverty and injustice.
That approach led the Club to commission a report on the world’s resources and their limits to a group of researchers of the MIT. The result was the study for which the Club of Rome became known ever since: “The Limits to Growth,” published in 1972. From then on, the debate mostly moved on whether the scenarios of “The Limits to Growth” were correct and whether the study would really describe the possible trajectory of the world’s economy and its collapse as the result of the combination of persistent pollution and resource depletion. It soon degenerated into insults directed against “Cassandras” and “catastrophists.” Still today, it is widely believed that the study was “wrong”, even though it was not.
But world models were not so much what Peccei and the other founders had in mind. Their aim had remained the initial one: justice, social equality, freedom from want. The discovery of the world’s limits had made these objectives more difficult than they had seemed to be at the beginning, but not an impossible target. The “Limits” report, indeed, had sketched out how the world’s economy could be steered in such a way to avoid collapse and to maintain for a long time a reasonable level of production of goods and services per person.
From what Peccei wrote, it is clear that he (and most members of the Club) thought that creating a better world was to be the result of a public debate and of democracy. In the debate, the world’s leaders and the general public would have become convinced of the need to slow down economic growth, avoid overpopulation, conserve resources, and invest in actions against pollution. Then, the majority would democratically enforce these actions. Unfortunately, Peccei had badly estimated the power of propaganda to sway the discussion and to demonize all attempts to work for a better world. Peccei himself was the victim of propaganda, and, if you search the Web today, you still find plenty of pages describing him (and the Club of Rome) as working for the enslavement or the extermination of humankind or, sometimes, of the “darker races”.
Almost half a century has passed from the first reunion of the Club of Rome, and its members are still struggling with the same question: how to create a more equitable, free, and prosperous world? Whereas understanding our future turned out to be feasible, acting on it turned out to be devilishly difficult. Today, we are still stuck at the most basic level of trying to have people understand the dangers ahead. Think of how easily the efforts to act against climate change are thwarted by the simplest propaganda tricks (do you remember “climategate”?).
So, the Club didn’t stray away from Peccei’s legacy and it has remained close to its initial approach and structure. It is a forum where people meet to discuss on how a better world could be created and show how we can work in that direction. That was clear at the general assembly of this year, in Winterthur (SW), where the discussion ranged from mineral limits to social structures; including politics and new business avenues. The members reported about long term modeling, but also on their practical, day to day results on how to improve the life of the poor and to reduce pollution at the local level. The magic bullet that will cure the world’s ills may not exist, but we all can do something for a better world.
36 Comments on "The Club of Rome, almost half a century later"
Hello on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 3:05 pm
We can find comfort in knowing that humans will get what they deserve.
onlooker on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 3:08 pm
If the world had listened to the suggestions of Limits to Growth and the Club of Rome, the world would be a less harrowing place today. But no, as the article states the conclusions arrived and the people involved were smeared and ridiculed. It seems to me that was the propitious time in 1972, when we had still time and the technology to steer the world on a much more sustainable path. Alas, it did not happen now it is far too late.
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 3:13 pm
Alaskan boreal forest fires release more carbon than the trees can absorb
http://phys.org/news/2015-10-alaskan-boreal-forest-carbon-trees.html
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 3:14 pm
2015 Sets a New Record for Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes and Typhoons
http://www.wunderground.com/news/record-most-category-4-or-5-hurricanes-typhoons
Plantagenet on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 3:25 pm
Its easy to call for social justice when the economy is growing. There is more and more wealth to be shared.
But as the global economy slows and then contracts, there is less wealth to go around. The tendency is for everyone to get less. Of course the wealthy 1% have managed to buck this trend—–so far.
Cheers!
BC on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 4:02 pm
Plant, on that (apart from the consistent incorrect use of a possessive pronoun when a contraction is required) we can unequivocally agree.
Given that 7 billion human apes exist on the planet when only 1 billion were alive when the last time we encountered similar climatological, hegemonic, and comparatively unequal socioeconomic conditions prior to the American and French Revolutions and successive Napoleonic War era, the scale of social injustice, economic hardship, and loss of human ape life is likely to be unspeakable over time.
Plantagenet on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 6:25 pm
BC “Given that 7 billion human apes exist on the planet when only 1 billion were alive when the last time we encountered similar climatological, hegemonic, and comparatively unequal socioeconomic conditions….”
The word “when” is superfluous in your sentence quoted above.
I wouldn’t normally point it out, but since you have appointed yourself the local grammar cop, I suggest you correct the grammar errors in your own posts before correcting other people’s typos.
People in glass houses and all that……
Cheers!
Plantagenet on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 6:27 pm
BC—I’ll be more explicit to help you get it.
Its the SECOND “when” in your sentence quoted above that is superfluous.
Cheers!
GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 7:11 pm
There is a big difference between a typo, and consistently making the same error over and over like you do planter. What makes it even more of an error, is when people repeatedly point it out to you, and you keep on doing it. I know it may seem impossible, but it makes you look even more dumb than you already appear to be.
GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 7:22 pm
“Of course the wealthy 1% have managed to buck this trend—–so far.”
If you make over $47,000 per year planter, you are in the ‘wealthy 1%’.
Davy on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 7:32 pm
Does it count if you just sold a million dollar house Greg?
Boat on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 7:56 pm
onlooker,
So if it’s to late to save the world why beat a dead horse.
makati1 on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 8:38 pm
More old men dreaming of finding unicorns among the lions. Too late.
peakyeast on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 8:59 pm
@Boat: Its not dead yet – just terminally ill.
Besides its good exercise – I think they call it cardio or some other fancy bussword for moving your extremities.
GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 10:13 pm
“Does it count if you just sold a million dollar house Greg?”
I’m very well aware that I would be considered to be among the 1% Davy. Have you ever heard me say otherwise? $47,000 per year is hardy what I would consider to be a big wage in North America.
I can tell that I have become a new target of yours. Whatever Davy, I’m used to being bullied, people don’t generally like to here the truth when they find it uncomfortable.
Knock yourself out. Bully away.
makati1 on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 10:34 pm
GregT, I’m happy for you if that is true, but it doesn’t say how much you got to keep or how you will use that money. I’m sure it will be used to prep for what is coming as much as money can.
I built a nice 2,800sq.ft. house just prior to my divorce, that I gave to my Ex to keep the family happy. She sold it a year later for about $300 K and netted about $150K, after expenses and the construction loan, because I did 95% of the labor to build it. Best investment I ever made. LOL
Anyway, yes, every time your reveal a bit about yourself, someone here will find a way to use it against you. One in particular. I laugh at the attempt.
I’m sure you will also.
GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 11:54 pm
I wouldn’t consider million dollar homes in these parts to actually be worth a million dollars Mak. The real estate market is in a massive bubble being fuelled mainly by Asian investors. They’re buying Vancouver with cash, and often times sight unseen.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:17 am
Greg said “I can tell that I have become a new target of yours. Whatever Davy, I’m used to being bullied, people don’t generally like to hear the truth when they find it uncomfortable.”
Sure Greg, live by the truth with your deeds. I am clearly on your radar screen. I warned you on several comments to back off and you didn’t. You and your other buddies are constantly harping on my 1%er family affiliation, Hypocrisy anyone? Constantly harping about flag waiving when it is you walking on my flag as bullies would and in a consistent, repetitious and ad nausea attacks. I just ask for some decency and moderation with something that is legitimate but should not become a circus but that is hard when you guys collect in dog packs in one big orgy of hate, resentment, and blame. You guys feel so strong because you are in the majority here. Might makes right people like to say.
Talk about friggen bullies you and your other buddies are the biggest bullies on this board. “Knock yourself out” Greg that is your policy for sure. You guys hammer people constantly but if you get the slightest hammering in return I hear whining. I asked for decency you give the response Oh he is “flag waiving”
How about that puppy love from the Makster. He loves you Greg that is why he can’t bring himself to apply his same agenda to you that he would for anyone else on the subject of your million dollar house. That is what I despise about the anti-American’s it is called double standards. You hate the US for double standards and “might makes right” but that is what you practice.
Live by what you preach guy. If you have a Canadian dream life with multiple cars, boats, and RV’s how can you constantly harp about climate change against other people on this board? You can’t in good conscious.
You talk about truth well live up to it. Greg, I live by an eye for an eye on this board. You drew the first blood then you ridiculed my effort to patch up a friendship. I was looking for a peace treaty of “live and let live” and “agree to disagree”. You even went as far as calling me a liar. Fuck that on Friday.
I have many failings but I live by a code of honor. I try to not be too hypocritical. I am honest about my life even when that draws fire. I stand up for my country, my people, and myself even as I participate in the criticism of myself and them. You guys don’t even hear my criticism you just hear my defense against extremism. I am not afraid of you guys. You can belittle, discredit, and diminish me all you like. I have been here longer than most. This is nothing new for me. I am used to it and I thrive on it. You will weaken from bashing me because attrition takes its toll.
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 5:09 am
“I warned you on several comments to back off and you didn’t.””
Sorry Davy, I don’t take kindly to threats. I don’t back off to anyone, especially when they are completely out of line.
“You and your other buddies are constantly harping on my 1%er family affiliation”
I have never harped on you about your 1% family affiliation Davy, I have always backed you up when people have attacked you, and I have always acted respectfully towards you.
“You even went as far as calling me a liar. Fuck that on Friday.”
I did not call you a liar Davy. You’re making shit up in your own mind.
“If you have a Canadian dream life with multiple cars, boats, and RV’s how can you constantly harp about climate change against other people on this board?”
My truck is 3 years old Davy and has 13,000 km on it. My RV has not moved in four years, other than when it was relocated. One of my boats has two electric trolling motors on it, and the other hasn’t turned a prop so far this year, but it will this week.
“I have many failings but I live by a code of honour.”
Your actions here are not honourable Davy. You are acting like a complete fucking asshole. If you wish to continue on this tangent, so be it. I have no desire to do so. It’s all up to you buddy. Your choice.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 6:19 am
GregT, I’m glad you were able to take advantage of the bubble. I was aware of it just as I am of the one in San Francisco and other Us cities of choice. Some here assume that I do not know what is going on in the US and Canada, but I track events there as well as the rest of the world. Beats any TV or movie for horror, danger and suspense.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 8:04 am
Now, Greg, I got your attention. If you choose to second guess me on my comments, repeat what I say by putting words in my mouth, and calling me a flag waiver then I am going to call you out. If you tell me I am deceived and part of the status quo I will call you out. If you call me a 1%er I will call you out. If you claim me part of the empire agenda I will call you out. We are on here too much not to get called out. Is this what you want?
I have made an effort to ignore your anti-American comments. I even have been apologetic when others criticize you for being a bully with other who comment. Yes, Greg, you got a mean streak in you just like I do. I stay out of these petty petty fights. I even join in occasionally because I can’t stand the ugly Americans either. It damages my ability to moderate the ugly anti-Americans and their agenda.
This is what I call agree to disagree. Live and let live is a strategy for us to have different opinions without hammering each other. You are not in the same class as Makati1. Makati one is pure unadulterated hate and resentment agenda. If you are going to bust my balls you are going to get it back. “If you wish to continue on this tangent, so be it. Your choice”. “Back at you”. Oh and you ain’t my buddy.
We were once friends and you chose your asshole high and mighty Canadian pride over accommodation. And fuck your claim “I am not an anti-American”. You fucking hate Americans and you know it. Do you remember this link and your support of it? We had a long exchange on this one where I was probing your real intent. This of course was another example of Makati1 “Asswipe” turning this board into a circus whit hate links. You guys basically see the death of 260Mil Americans and the destruction of the US economy and with the corresponding rise of China population and economy. We know the world does not work that way first of all. Secondly this is blatant unadulterated hate agenda!
http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx?pag=1&sort=GDP&ord=DESC
This is my point Greg ignore me and I will ignore you. You call me out and I will call you out. If we get on different sides of a comment be general and not specific in your attacks as I will. Don’t come out with Davy WTF do you mean by that? Otherwise we will have routine shit slings. I will hound you like I do asswipe Makati1. You ridiculed me two days ago for trying to patch things up. Boat even chimed in on your behalf calling me gay and unmanly. Which was a really good funny out of Boat who is a dipshit. Basically you leave me alone and I will leave you alone.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 8:07 am
Makati1 is such a friggen hypocrite. Makati1 said “GregT, I’m glad you were able to take advantage of the bubble.” You have made it clear over the past 2 years you despise people that have money Makster. If an American would have said that you would have pounced on him. You are a real piece of work.
BobInget on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 9:10 am
By Paul Ames, GlobalPost
POSTED: 10/19/15, 4:00 PM PDT | UPDATED: 15 HRS AGO 0 COMMENTS
STAVANGER, Norway — The Arctic ice floes are a world away from Syria’s fiery deserts or the plains of eastern Ukraine. Yet the High North risks becoming another theater of tension between Russia and the West as global warming frees up resource riches.
“The unlocking of the region’s enormous economic potential could … have significant geopolitical implications,” warns a report presented to lawmakers and senior Western security officials last week. It highlighted dangers of “competition and perhaps even confrontation” in the region.
“The Arctic is a harsh environment; it should not become harsher due to increased military and resource competition,” said the report prepared for NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly.
Russia has been cranking up its military presence in the Arctic as relations with the West worsen over Ukraine. Now with Russia striking targets inside Syria — many of them held by US-friendly rebels — those tensions are even higher.
Moscow aims to open 10 new airbases in the Arctic region by the end of this year in addition to four that are already operational. Last December, Russia set up a new Arctic strategic command and began revamping Cold War-era naval, army and air defense installations across its vast northern region.
A motorized infantry brigade was stationed close to the border with Finland; another brigade will be based just eight miles from Norway’s northeast frontier. The NATO PA report says Russia is increasing its special forces presence in the region by more than 30 percent and stepping up Arctic warfare training.
In March, Russia mobilized its powerful Northern Fleet for exercises that deployed 45,000 troops, 41 ships and 110 aircraft. The war games dwarfed maneuvers by 5,000 Norwegian troops on the other side of the border.
“New challenges and threats to military security require the armed forces to further boost their military capabilities,” said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. “Special attention must be paid to newly created strategic formations in the north.”
Russia says its build-up is defensive — needed to protect vast oil, gas and mineral resources along the country’s 15,000-mile Arctic Sea coast.
Northern neighbors are not so sure.
“We see that the Russian armed forces are undergoing a significant modernization … we are seeing much greater capability for strategic mobility,” Norway’s Prime Minister Erna Solberg said Monday.
“We do not consider Russia to be a direct threat to Norway or Norwegian interests, but the strategic changes in the security environment in our part of the world force us to think differently,” she told a security conference in Stavanger, the capital of Norway’s $38 billion-a-year oil and gas industry.
Many experts warn rivalry in the polar region is increasing as climate change makes it easier to reach the huge natural resources under the ice cap, and to free up sea lanes through the Arctic Ocean.
The Arctic holds an estimated 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil and natural gas reserves. It also contains rare earth metals and other valuable minerals. With the icecap and permafrost melting at accelerated rates, they are becoming more readily available.
A land grab for polar territory is underway among Russia and the other Arctic seaboard nations — Norway, Denmark, Canada and the United States, who are all members of the NATO alliance. In August, Moscow renewed claims to almost half a million square miles stretching up to the North Pole.
Norwegian officials hope the race for Arctic resources will be peaceful. They note that most of the mineral riches are in areas already allocated, and point to a tradition of nations resolving territorial issues peacefully there — even during the Cold War.
However, Norway’s faith in Arctic cooperation has been shaken by President Vladimir Putin’s unpredictable foreign policy.
They haven’t been reassured by stunts like using a submarine to plant a Russian flag on the seabed under the North Pole in 2007; strategic bomber incursions close to Norwegian air space; or the unannounced landing on Norway’s Svalbard Islands by Putin aide Dmitry Rogozin, in April, in violation of a European travel ban imposed over his role in destabilizing Ukraine.
“The Arctic is a Russian Mecca,” Rogozin, a deputy prime minister, tweeted in response to Norwegian complaints.
“A few years back, Russian Arctic rhetoric was characterized by terms such as peaceful development, low tension and low military activity,” says Lt. Gen Kjell Grandhagen, director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service. “Now, Russian leaders … are increasingly referring to the need for ramping up military activity in the High North.”
Grandhagen told GlobalPost that Russian actions are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast as the Kremlin pursues an outsized foreign policy agenda to cover for its economic weakness and dilute potential for internal unrest.
“They want to be a major global power but with a limited ability to do it, that makes them more unpredictable,” Grandhagen said. “It puts an enormous pressure on the Russian leadership to deliver something to the Russian public.”
Norway is stepping up military spending in response.
The government last week asked parliament for a 9.8 percent increase in the defense budget next year. It wants to spend over a quarter of the budget on new equipment like high-tech F-35 stealth fighter planes and powerful anti-ship missiles.
A 25 percent increase in intelligence spending is also planned.
Some NATO allies oppose further militarization of the High North, fearing an Arctic arms race. The Norwegians argue that Western allies must prepare for the worst.
“This area will be highly relevant in any potential crisis or conflict involving Russia,” Defense Minister Ine Eriksen Soreide told lawmakers from the 28 NATO nations gathered in Stavanger.
“Given the strategic importance of Russian capabilities in the High North, we could potentially face a resurrected threat to the sea lines of communication across the Atlantic,” she warned. “We need to bolster capacities.”
That concern isn’t limited to Europe.
US President Barack Obama has faced calls to beef up Arctic defenses, particularly from Alaska.
On a visit to the state last month, Obama backed calls for the US Coast Guard to acquire more icebreakers — powerful ships able to cut though Arctic ice to clear the way for other vessels.
Currently the United States has just two such ships compared to a Russian fleet that already stands at 41, with 11 more on the way.
“The highways of the Arctic are paved by icebreakers,” Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan told reporters during Obama’s visit. “Right now, the Russians have superhighways and we have dirt roads with potholes.”
“We are entering a new era of Arctic security,” said Kristine Offerdal, an expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies. “The worst case scenario is becoming increasingly worse.”
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 11:59 am
“GregT, I’m glad you were able to take advantage of the bubble.”
Thanks Mak. Could have done better though. Since we moved four months ago, our old house has increased in price by another $75K or so. My best friend bought a home for $425K 6 years ago. He just sold it for $1.25M. How long can this go on? Don’t know, and don’t care. We got out, that’s all that matters to us. There are 100,000 people moving to the GVRD every year. They expect this to continue for at least the next decade. Vancouver is expected to surpass Toronto in population by 2025. I think that the rails will come off far before then. We shall see…..
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 12:03 pm
“If you choose to second guess me on my comments, repeat what I say by putting words in my mouth,”
“If you tell me I am deceived and part of the status quo I will call you out. If you call me a 1%er I will call you out. If you claim me part of the empire agenda I will call you out. ”
You’re losing it Davy. I can see now that you have some serious issues.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 1:10 pm
Greg, …………………………………………………fuck off
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 1:13 pm
I feel sorry for you Davy. There’s no need for any of this.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 1:27 pm
Greg, grow up and give it a rest. Go harass Planter or Boat they enjoy it. I don’t need the condescending bullshit.
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 1:42 pm
As I’ve said before Davy. I only tell it like I see it. I’m not about to walk on eggshells because somebody else doesn’t find my points of view to be comfortable. There are plenty here that share those views, and many of them happen to be your fellow Americans. I’m only interested in the truth Davy. Nothing more, nothing less. If somebody provides evidence to the contrary, my views will change accordingly. If you choose to turn this into a personal conflict, so be it. I want no part of it.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 2:23 pm
Greg, fine, show respect to me and I will show respect to you. We should not have any problems. Lets give it a shot and maybe these issues will melt away. Deal?
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 2:38 pm
As I have said before Davy, I already have a great deal of respect for you. The path that you have chosen, the labour that you have put into that path, your spiritual connection with the natural world. Where we are running into problems, is that you take anything that I say about the US personally. I am not attacking you Davy, and I am not attacking the USA. Please try to understand where I am coming from. Think Kogi. I have no affiliation to any human construct. My affiliation is to the natural world. I don’t do human politics well. I don’t believe in war, or killing other people for gain. I am an individual Davy, and so are you. Please try to communicate with me on that level, and ditch the Canada/ USA stuff.
If you are willing to make an attempt to do that, then you have a deal.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:16 pm
Ok, Greg, let’s bury the hatchet. Life as we know it will be over soon. We need to clear our minds and focus our attention for what could be hell on earth. No need to have a battle on this board between two people with similar doom and prep goals. Our motivation should be the sharing of information of the kind that will help us survive the shit storm ahead.
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:39 pm
“Our motivation should be the sharing of information of the kind that will help us survive the shit storm ahead.”
Absolutely agree, and also openly and honestly discussing current events in an attempt to determine a timeline. This isn’t a time for capitalism and nationalism Davy, it is the time to embrace localism, and socialism. Those who don’t, will not likely make it through the coming shit storm.
marmico on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:40 pm
Oh, come on GreggieT, you should lick Davy’s limp dick while he lays on straw in his Green Acres cabin after sodomizing the goats just like that “onlooker” fella does. It will be a come to Jesus moment. Hurry Hard for sloppy seconds.
Davy on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:50 pm
Marmi, nice to know you are always there to give us a Hallmark moment. That was sweet.
GregT on Tue, 20th Oct 2015 3:51 pm
You are nothing but useless piece of shit marmico. You have nothing constructive to ad to the conversation here.
Go climb back into your hole, troll.