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Page added on October 16, 2015

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Limits on the Grid

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Mackay Miller, Senior Research Analyst at NREL. @mackaymiller

Links

NREL: Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) (2012)
NREL: Power Systems of the Future (May 2015)
Nelder: Designing the grid for renewables (2012)
Nelder: Wind to Double and Solar to Triple in 6 Years, Says IEA (2013)

Taping date: August 19, 2015

Energy Transition Show



23 Comments on "Limits on the Grid"

  1. Revi on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 7:08 am 

    Wind can be backed up by hydro, which is plentiful in Quebec, so the northeast could have a lot more, in my humble opinion.

  2. ghung on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 9:32 am 

    However the grid evolves, it’ll have to become ‘smarter’ and more interconnected. Be careful what you wish for.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/military/cyberwar-threat.html

  3. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 12:56 pm 

    I think I read somewhere that if the Grid falters for any substantial length of time that would truly strain the ability of the government and citizens to cope and survive. So we will burn coal or whatever to keep it functioning. Global warming has been and continues to be a perceived far off threat while our modern civilization will cling to life as long as it can.

  4. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 1:16 pm 

    We are facing a liquid fuels crisis. Electricity will not solve this problem. The grid, while an important transitional source of energy, will not be in our future several decades post oil. We should be focussing on food production, and on the movement of populations to areas where sustainability is possible. Largely populated areas will not be able to sustain themselves in a post fossil fuel era, electric grid or not.

  5. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 1:39 pm 

    So true yet the cars in the manner they have been manufactures rely on electricity. That is why authorities warn of this in the case of a blackout. Refrigeration and storage of food are also dependent on electricity. Of course it is a matter of extremes a permanent electrical grid failure would create multiple triage type threats to property and human well being. So a prolonged blackout threatens food supplies.

  6. Davy on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 1:55 pm 

    Liquid fuels and electricity can not be separated. If one goes so does the other. It is all interconnected at that level of the energy spectrum. Sure initially and in the small scale there can be substitutions of both by both in various ways and for various applications.

    A modern Economy at our level of complexity delivering liquid or grid energy is extremely fragil to significant disruptions. Small disruptions not so much. It is the core areas that cannot be disturbed. It only takes a widespread 10% reduction in liquid fuels for a few weeks to derail an economy. Widespread rolling black and brown outs to the grid likewise would take its toll. We are a fragil animal in a fragile self made ecosystem of our own hideous design.

  7. goat1001 on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:18 pm 

    I have serious doubts that the myriad nuclear plants across the planet can or will be decommissioned properly when the brown-outs hit. Just imagine in the middle of total chaos and anarchy a thousand Chernobyl meltdowns happening. Whoa!

  8. Davy on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:57 pm 

    Goat, this is precisely the reason we need to carefully think through descent. Not that it really matters because collapse is a process that will follow its own trajectory. We can only spead it up or slow it down around the edges.

    We are going to pass through a doorway of danger when the status quo normal come unglued. If we are not prepared at the level of the vitals all could be lost. Food supply is critical and potential catastrophic industrial failures like a NUK plant melt down is another example. Then there is all the localized issues like for example dam failures from loss of control and maintenance.

    We have created so many time bombs I am not sure if we have any chance but at the minimum the vitals should be organized and prepared for. We have the ability to change some things. We can adapt and mitigate other issues. Some things we are just going to have to endure and or die from.

  9. makati1 on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 8:30 pm 

    Toot! Toot!

    Guys, many countries do not rely on electric like the West and especially the US does. (US CIA Fact Book)

    Canada – 1,871 W.
    US per capita – 1,683 Watts
    Russia – 808 W.
    Japan – 774 W.
    European Union – 688 W.
    China – 458 W.
    Cuba – 145 W.
    India – 101 W.
    Philippines – 60 W.
    Afghanistan/Chad/Sierra Leone – 1 W. (Not a typo)

    There are 72 countries that use less than 100 watts per capita and 33 more that use less than 200 watts per capita. Of those 72, 27 use less than 10 watts per capita.

    Now who do you think will hurt the most when electric goes missing?

  10. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 8:41 pm 

    Looks like Canada wins this one. The US can’t always be the best at everything.

    Woo hoo! Go Canada Go!

  11. makati1 on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 8:59 pm 

    Goat, this is what we have to look forward to when the SHTF.

    “The Chernobyl meltdown led to a sharp rise in infant deaths in locations as far from the plant as Western Germany and the United States. A recent study, published in the journalRadiation Research, linked a sharp jump in thyroid cancer rates in the years following that disaster directly to the amount of radioactive iodine that children were exposed to in the months immediately after the meltdown and explosion.”

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/deaths-and-mutations-spike-around-fukushima-no-safety-threshold-for-radioactive-cesium-exposure/5482530

    Multiplied some 400+ times…

  12. apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 9:09 pm 

    Greg, a good portion of that electricity goes to power Santa’s shop at the North pole which is technically in Canada.

  13. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 11:43 pm 

    Don’t wreck it for me Apnea. I was enjoying our little moment in the limelight. Maybe the Russians could have the North Pole, and take Santa and his demented little elves with it. And his stupid flying reindeer too.

  14. apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 11:58 pm 

    I’m already dreading another Christmas. 4ft of crap surrounding a tree and swapping gift cards. I’m only going so not as to upset my dear old mother. Maybe I will give everyone a Guy McPherson, Near Term Human Extinction by 2030, book.

  15. GregT on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:52 am 

    It’s the most, won-der-ful time, of the year.

    Yah, I hear you Apnea, I’ve had it up to here with the entire festive over consumption season myself. My sisters don’t get it, and neither do my parents. They’ve all be brainwashed by corporate advertising. I have no problem spending time with family and friends, but giving and receiving crap that nobody usually wants or needs anyways, is a complete waste of time, energy, and resources.

    Somehow I don’t think that Guy’s book will go over very well, unless of course you hope to not get invited back next year. 🙂

  16. bug on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 6:24 am 

    Ap, Greg, do what my immediate family did years ago. As Aetheists, we figured why are we doing this? Gifts are for kids and we are all older, so why gifts and get more junk nobody needs. Christmas is another day of the year but we usually have a nice goose dinner.

  17. Davy on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 6:50 am 

    Maybe we should just enjoy Christmas as a surreal experience with something that is dated because its shelf life is very near. I am talking the consumerism side of Christmas which has grown to be the majority of it. I imagine the very old Christmas tradition will return to be a quiet Christian event once all the consumerism has been purged from the holiday.

    We are very close to the end of consumerism. Consumerism is the least sustainable and vital of our global activities. That is not so true for Asia where it is vital to keep the sweatshops humming and the population contempt with a job.

    Christmas will likely be a defining marker for the end of consumerism. All it takes is one bad Christmas to bankrupt many in the retail sector with the economy already sick. Christmas allows for many retail to operate in the red until the end of the year when the large sales turn the red to black.

    I don’t see this Christmas being bad yet but much could happen in the next month. This fall is a good time for a market crash if any hints of a bad Christmas surface. We already saw Walmart’s stock drop significantly from wage hikes what will happen with a poor developing Christmas season?

  18. onlooker on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:18 am 

    I read a news story how Mcdonalds is doing really really bad.

  19. onlooker on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:31 am 

    I think Christmas is a prime example of rabid consumerism. How the heck did we distort this holiday and this event to be so focused on consumption and gift giving? I like the whole spiritual aspect of it but also do not care at all for the shopping and such things. I barely give any gifts just to my wife and my immediate family.

  20. GregT on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:46 am 

    “Ap, Greg, do what my immediate family did years ago.”

    Believe me, I’ve tried. Between Christmas, Peak Oil, and Climate Change, I’ve pretty much been labeled as a pessimist. Although they do all concede that Climate Change is real, and that we will eventually run out of oil, nobody really wants to address any of these things. When I made the change in lifestyle I was accused of wanting to live the “hunter/gatherer” lifestyle. They just don’t seem to be able to understand that taking action is a positive.

  21. GregT on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 9:05 am 

    The really bizarre thing. My oldest sister recently graduated from a 5 year program in Environmental Management. Some of the speakers that she attended were Richard Heinberg, Nicole Foss, and Jennifer Francis. I know she gets it, because we have discussed all of this. She’s the one that keeps pushing for gifts at Christmas, and she’s currently on a three month trip to Europe with her husband. Go figure. I guess everyone reacts differently.

  22. makati1 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 9:56 am 

    GregT, some habits are too deep to change. If she lives in the United Consumer States, maybe she is afraid of her peers opinion if she wavers from the accepted program? Or maybe it is just the shopping addiction most Americans have? Just suggesting.

    My family does not exchange gifts. No money to waste on junk. They do usually get together for a big dinner, if they can, but most are scattered across the US and cannot meet even at Christmas. The last time we got together was Christmas 2001. Probably never again.

  23. Kenz300 on Sun, 18th Oct 2015 8:07 am 

    Climate Change is real….. we will all be impacted by it……

    Exxon’s Climate Change Cover-Up Is ‘Unparalleled Evil,’ Says Activist

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/exxon-evil-bill-mckibben_561e7362e4b028dd7ea5f45f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green&section=green

    ————-

    Solar and Wind Just Passed Another Big Turning Point

    http://bloom.bg/1WK34MZ

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