Saudi Arabia oil output up by 7%

22 Comments on "Saudi Arabia oil output up by 7%"

makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 6:40 am 



Pump baby pump! LMAO

I wonder of that increase in cement production was a result of the need to build bunkers and fortifications for the coming war?

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 7:30 am 



The recent production spike is the result of a massive infill drilling program. While it means increased production in the short term it also means a steeper decline on the other side of the peak. Infill drilling simply brings future production forward. KSA is giving it all they got. No spare capacity whatsoever.

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 7:51 am 



http://youtu.be/_mWtWz_aGyk

marko on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 8:14 am 



what 7% , what spare capacity bull shit. KSA cannot produce a barrel over 10.5mbpp.
This can just go down from here and nowhere else

frankthetank on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:22 am 



Internal consumption will continue to eat into exports as we head down the road.

penury on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:19 am 



Stop and consider, what effect will the war in Syria have on SA oil exports? No idea? Look at the situation, pick the worst three options and the three best options. Now which one would you place your bets on? I know where my money is going but then I am considered anti-American,

MrNoItAll on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:25 am 



SA increasing production by 7% at this point is analogous to a sprint to the finish line — that finish line being “the end of the world as you know it”. When SA production hits the downslope, that will be about the time that all hell breaks loose. With SA going pedal to the metal on squeezing the last remaining oil out of their legacy fields, we can be assured that “the end” is rapidly approaching. Or should we say, “the beginning”?

Plantagenet on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:32 am 



The 7% increase in KSA oil production is the one of the main reasons we are currently in a global oil glut.

The oil glut would end quickly if KSA would cut their oil production back to 2014 levels.

Cheers!

BobInget on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:32 am 



“It’s not what you make, it’s what you keep”.
Say tax phobic conservatives.
As Frankthetank and Makati allude, “its what KSA Exports”.

Saudi Gazette never mentions, indeed never breathes the word ‘Yemen’.Yet– Yemen is quickly draining away both exportable jet fuel and cash that could have built industry enabling the desert nation to survive post oil export days.

Genocide, in-situ, is expensive.

A single F/16 bombing mission uses fuel enough to power a mid-sized American car for a decade. Then there’s ordnance;

“Originally reported by The Economist, A single medium to long-range subsonic Tomahawk cruise missile costs roughly $1.5m, and 50kg air-to-ground Hellfire rockets cost an eye-watering $115,000 each. Another member of the family, a shoulder-rocket called the Javelin — at $147,000”

Consider, KSA is footing fuel and munitions
bills (S.CA ‘defense’ companies are working three shifts) for its so called coalition bombers.
US supplies transport of said weapons, US
supplies air to air refueling for all ‘coalition’
aircraft but not the jet fuel bill.

Consider maintenance.

Here’s a sample of what it costs to keep these Air Force aircraft airborne for one hour last year (the so-called “ownership” cost-per-flight-hour, which includes modifications):

A-10C Warthog Attack Plane — $17,716
(per hour flight time)
AC-130U Spooky Gunship — $45,986
B-1B Lancer Bomber — $57,807
B-2A Spirit Stealth Bomber — $169,313
F-15C Eagle Fighter — $41,921
F-22A Raptor Fighter — $68,362

Even a MQ-1B Predator Drone @ $3,679 per hour. (one can see why we love drones)

Let’s estimate The Saudi Coalition only manage to kill a million Yemenis a year with two thousand sorties. It will take the US and Saudi Arabia an additional trillion dollars and five more years to kill off every ‘terrorist’.

Do you believe KSA can afford two wars (Syria & Yemen) for five more years? I do not.

marko on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:43 am 



thanks bob fascinating numbers
Do you believe KSA can afford two wars (Syria & Yemen) for five more years? I do not.
No they cannot, but USA can. PRINT BABY PRINT ( global currency ) how suitable indeed

BobInget on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 12:01 pm 



Russia has entered the Syrian war ‘live’ so to speak. Like Saudi Arabia, Russia has, to this month supplied only ‘Bibles’ to Syrian fighters.
(Bibles; small arms, food, funds,medical aid)

Here’s three hour old recap;
Russian war planes pounded Syrian rebels unaffiliated with Islamic State on Sunday, insurgents said, helping Moscow’s ally Bashar al-Assad reclaim territory and dealing a fresh setback to the strategy of Washington and its allies.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group that monitors the 4-year-old conflict, said the Syrian military and its Lebanese Hezbollah militia allies had taken control of Tal Skik, a highland area in Idlib province, after fierce Russian bombing. (snip) (snip)

At any minute, any minute, someone is bound to do something really stupid. A so called ‘accident’.
Remember, we are dealing with military, not diplomatic thinking in ‘hot’ wars.

Russia, Iran, Iraq have formed a solid coalition of their own. Believe me, getting oil prices higher is more important for everyone concerned then Palestine’s brewing third intifada. Though, pitched war in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, will draw attention away from a coming IDF killing spree.

apneaman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 1:30 pm 



Turkey bomb blasts: government blamed as thousands take to streets in Ankara

Mourners and protesters gather in Turkish capital, blaming Erdoġan’s government for twin bomb attacks in which over 100 civilians died

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/11/turkey-bomb-blasts-ankara-mourning-scores-killed

I have not seen anything else on the supposed shooting down of the Russian war plane. Funny how that story mostly appeared in the trashiest of rags like the Daily mail et al. Me thinks it was a “oh look a squirrel” tactic to try and deflect attention away from the bombing. I think if it actually happened The Russians would have at least taken the opportunity to spin it as western aggression/violation of international law. A travesty of justice and claimed that they were not in Turkish air space bla bla bla. Oh well that was 24 hrs ago – 50 times the length of the average sheep’s attention span. Long forgotten and on to the next one. I suspect that most of the retarded world (99% of apes) doesn’t even care if anything is true or even took place as long as it is exciting and releases yet another big squirt of dopamine. Like a well seasoned crack head, the intervals between hits are getting shorter. Chasing the dragon.

rockman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 1:46 pm 



A 7% increase? Not very impressive compared to the 300% increase of KSA oil production from 1986 to 1991. Then again that wasn’t quite as impressive as the 70% decline in KSA oil production from 1981 to 1986. And not nearly as impressive compared to the 70% increase in US oil production between 2008 and 2014. So who should get the blame/credit for the current lower oil price?

And the result of that dramatic increase of KSA oil production in the mid 80’s: a much greater collapse in oil prices then we just experienced. As has been said before: what’s old in new again…if one isn’t familiar with history.

JuanP on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 3:58 pm 



I believe that the KSA is pumping oil flat out and has absolutely no spare production capacity left. I’ve never believed the KSA’s published spare production capacity numbers in the past. In my opinion they were around two million bpd over believable numbers for at least the past 15 years since I started tracking them.

It looks increasingly likely that the three largest oil producers in the world, the KSA, the USA, and Russia are experiencing new total annual oil production peaks this year. I will be extremely amazed if any of these countries manages to extract more oil next year than this one. The longer prices remain where they are the more likely that these production levels will never be reached again in the future.

With Canadian and Chinese oil extraction in decline, too, t is pretty safe to say that 2015 will likely become the “Peak All Liquid Fuels” year if these trends continue as they seem likely to do. Has the moment finally come? I expect all energy production to be measured in BOE in the future, even cow farts! 😉

makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 7:29 pm 



JuanP, maybe next year they will add rubbing alcohol and real moonshine to the total barrels? Just like some governments are adding prostitution incomes and drug dealing incomes to their GDP. Desperation is setting in in so many areas now. It cannot last much longer.

BC on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 10:09 pm 



And not to forget that the KSA’s oil production per capita is at the level of the late 1990s and down 15-16% since 2005, which is the similar point at which the US was in the early to mid-1980s at the onset of deindustrialization and financialization.

To fight oil wars on the peninsula and fund social spending to prevent social unrest and contraction of nominal GDP per capita, the KSA is running a fiscal deficit of ~20% of GDP!!! 😀

That’s equivalent to the US running a deficit of nearly ~$3.6 trillion, which is equivalent to half of US wages and salaries and total federal gov’t spending. 😀

The KSA is a de facto failed state in the making, not unlike many of her neighbors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUCwCgthp_E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mXsoYrXaMQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=1&v=nfJNFSYFmZs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_OAcxSjzyY (part 1 of 8)

But little of what is occurring in MENA and Central Asia should be “unexpected” or perceived as failed US/UK/EU foreign policy; rather, it’s all part of the “empire (on the edge) of chaos”, reflective of the accelerating decline of western (“Jewish”), and now world, civilization resulting from Peak Oil, overshoot, LTG, and EOG.

BobInget on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 9:57 am 



Goldman shoots down Com rally.
It’s obvious, the brokerage firm is messing with foreign policy, big time.

First, here is this morning’s wide (not just to clients) press release.

Goldman is relentless…lowers WTI and other commodity price forecasts.
BRIEF-Goldman maintains bearish view on commodities; revises WTI forecast – RTRS

12-Oct-2015 04:03

Oct 12 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs:

Goldman says “as such, we maintain a broad, bearish view on commodities”
Goldman says sees 12 month S&P GSCI enhanced commodity index forecast at -10.0 percent

Goldman says in line with oversupplied outlook , have changed 3, 6 and 12-month WTI forecasts to $42 per barrel, $40 per barrel and $45 per barrel.
Goldman says “we estimate 2015 oil demand growth at 1.62 mb/d and forecast 2016 global demand growth to be 1.28 mb/d which leaves the market 400 kb/d oversupplied”
Goldman says “there is also the potential for oil prices to collapse to production costs if the oversupply breaches logistical and storage capacity”
Goldman says sees 3, 6 and 12-month Brent forecasts at $47 per barrel, $45 per barrel and $49 per barrel.
Goldman says “in 2016, we believe that a slowdown in associated gas production along with broad-based demand growth will provide enough catalyst for natgas prices to increase to $3.00/mmbtu”
METALS

Goldman Sachs says “continue to expect that copper prices will fall to $4,800/t by year-end”
Goldman says over the next 12 months we forecast the palladium prices to move up to $750 per ounce
Goldman says “our gold price forecasts remain $1,150 per ounce in 3 months, $1,100 per ounce in 6 months and $1,050 per ounce in 12 months”
Goldman says “we expect (iron ore) prices to decline over our forecast period down to $44/t next year and $40/t in 2017”
Goldman says sees 3, 6 and 12-month Silver forecasts at $16 per ounce, $15.5 per ounce and $15.2 per ounce
Goldman says sees 3, 6 and 12-month Platinum forecasts at $950 per ounce, $925 per ounce and $925 per ounce
Goldman says sees 3 and 6-month palladium forecasts at $720 per ounce and $725 per ounce. (30)

First of all, this “forecast’ is nothing less then
dangling a live mouse in front of a young house cat. No oil exporting dependent nation can resist domestic chaos with oil below production cost. What GS predicts is EXACTLY the reverse of what is being touted in today’s report.

If in fact Russian cruise missiles went astray intentionally as I suspect, (landing in an Iranian field) or, such a rumor was floated, what if a series of Russian missiles were to ‘accidentally’
drop in on Saudi Arabia?

When Saudi Arabia ‘invaded’ Yemen the Kingdom must have calculated a minimum
response. The ‘war’ was expected to be over in a matter of weeks not months or years as is the case.

Iran has a new missile that is capable of reaching Israel. In which case that missile has KSA in range.

Boat on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 10:25 am 



Bob,

Iran has a new missile that is capable of reaching Israel. In which case that missile has KSA in range.

Iran’s money is wasted. If they used a missile against the Saudi the sanctions would immediately return. The US and Europe would instantly get 10’s of billions in orders of whatever they wanted in military weapons. Iran is not that dumb.

BobInget on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 10:38 am 



Snatched from another energy board.
(not my words)

I just clipped some news about oil supply, demand and oil investment from the various posting and I will share it here first. I included comments from significant people such as Birol from IEA, OPEC ‘s Badri , EIA, Harold Hamm and some Saudi comments.

To a man, everybody is concerned about lack of investment and hence the future of oil supply, the need to get the price of oil up , arrest the oil price fluctuation, and the growing demand and shrinking supply. I just clipped the news, copied and pasted them.

Your window to pick and lock your oil stocks is closing. Pick some winners soon as oil price has to go up. It is rather unusual to hear authoritative sources send the same message.

Here are the clippings and I apologize for some overlap:

Low oil prices have led to drilling reductions and delays worldwide.

Speaking at the Oil and Money conference in London this week, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said global oil and natural gas investment is at least 20 percent less than one year ago. He said the year-over-year drop is the largest in history.

Abdalla El Badri, secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said global oil investment has dropped by about $650 billion this year.

“I am very concerned about investment,” he said. “I’m not happy at all. It means less supply in the future. Less supply means higher costs in the future.”

Warnings echoed

The recent warnings from international oil industry leaders echo forecasts from some local oil executives.

The U.S. Energy and Information Administration last month said domestic oil production was likely to drop by 1 million barrels per day from May 2015 to May 2016 in a move that would eliminate most or all of the oil surplus the world has experienced over the past couple of years.

Continental Resources Inc. CEO Harold Hamm at the time said such a drop in production will cause prices to swing quickly.

“When you see supply and demand cross as we predict it will by next May, when people start to see that’s happening, you will see prices rebound,” Hamm said. “When you get in short supply, it (the price of oil) will swing hard the other way.”

Sadad al-Husseini (former Saudi Aramco exec) sees non-Opec supply in 2016 down1.5m b/d compared to IEA forecast of -0.5m b/d
On other news, OPEC sec gen:

OPEC and non-OPEC should work together to tackle market surplus

sees 2016 oil demand growth of 1.3m bpd

sees “some light at the end of the tunnel”

Meanwhile IEA head Birol says 2015 oil upstream investment drop is highest in history
OPEC sec gen says $650bln cut in upstream investment

means less supply in very near future and high prices

we are in extreme of low oil price, I hope it will not last

Oil market needs an anchor, Saudi adviser says
KUWAIT | BY RANIA EL GAMAL

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The lack of a clear leader or “anchor” in the global oil market is fueling uncertainty and leading to sharp swings in crude prices, but this uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long, a senior Saudi oil adviser said.

The comments by Ibrahim al-Muhanna suggest that Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC understand that they are unable to manage the oil market alone for the time being, and would like to see some kind of collective mechanism to reduce the current instability in the market.

“In the current circumstances, the international oil market could continue in an unstable situation, where there is a lot of uncertainty with the lack of a market anchor,” Muhanna, an adviser to the Saudi oil minister, told a closed-door energy event in Kuwait on Wednesday. His comments were released publicly on Friday.

“In the end, this means the inability of investors to find a suitable price in the market currently and in future,” he said in the speech. “This is an unnatural situation and it is difficult to see it continuing.”

Top oil exporter and OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia was the driving force behind OPEC’s landmark decision, at its meeting in November 2014, not to cut oil output to support prices, and instead seek to defend market share.

The decision, which is a shift from OPEC’s traditional role of reducing production to prop up prices, has along with a supply glut helped trigger a sharp drop in crude prices in the last year.

The message from Riyadh has been clear: the kingdom is no longer willing to shoulder the burden of reducing production alone and if others want better prices, they should take on their share of output cuts.

Gulf oil sources see no sign of Saudi Arabia wavering in its long-term strategy, particularly when other OPEC members such as Iraq are raising production and Iran is gearing up to boost exports by next year. Non-OPEC producers including Russia have refused to cooperate with OPEC in cutting output.

Muhanna referred in his speech to the need for greater international cooperation to reduce speculation and support a healthy oil market, which “should not only be limited to OPEC and other producing countries but also include the other main energy consumers,” he said.

Muhanna did not describe in detail how such a structure would work or say how likely it was to be established.

He gave examples of organizations such as the International Energy Agency and the International Energy Forum as attempts to bring more transparency to the oil market but said more needs to be done.

Muhanna said global demand for oil was expected to rise by at least 1 million barrels per day every year,‎ driven mainly by economic growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and the world’s oil consumption would reach about 105 million bpd by 2025.

He also said the current persistent oil supply glut and instability of prices “is a temporary situation that will not last for long”.

A U.S. Energy Information Administration report on Tuesday predicted global oil demand for 2016 would rise by the fastest rate in six years, suggesting the crude surplus that has pushed prices down about 50 percent since June last year is easing faster than expected.

OPEC’s Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said on Tuesday that the oil exporter group should work together with producers outside OPEC to tackle the oil surplus in the global market.

(Editing by Andrew Torchia and Susan Fenton)

Davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 10:38 am 



Come on Boater get real if Iran uses a missle on KSA it’s game over for all of us. The resulting shit storm will take Mid East oil off the market and stop the global economy in its tracks. We will have famine even in rich countries within a year. Oil is food so you take that much off the market someone is not going to eat.

Boat on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 11:32 am 



Bob

A U.S. Energy Information Administration report on Tuesday predicted global oil demand for 2016 would rise by the fastest rate in six years, suggesting the crude surplus that has pushed prices down about 50 percent since June last year is easing faster than expected.

Of course this is happening. Unlike the doomers most of the world knows that demand will catch up with supply and the prices will reverse. All large commodities are plagued with first overshoot and then lack of product. Just another cycle.

This is not the result of APT or lack of BTU per barell.

GregT on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 2:05 pm 



“Unlike the doomers most of the world knows that demand will catch up with supply and the prices will reverse.”

Unlike you Boat, the “doomers” have been paying attention to the fact that oil today is still around twice the price that our economies can afford to pay in order to maintain some semblance of BAU. Our economies continue to stagnate even at $40/bbl oil. Any further increase in demand, and prices at this point in time, will only further degrade economies around the world. Peak cheap, abundant, affordable oil has already passed, it is all downhill from here.

Like all finite resources, they eventually reach a peak, and then go into decline. Just another cycle Boat. We didn’t create the laws of physics, and they are non-negotiable.

This is not the result of APT, or lack of BTU per barrel, it is called depletion.