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Page added on October 11, 2015
The Promise and Peril of Cheap Oil
Everyone likes $2 gasoline. But what if it’s bad for the long-term growth of the U.S. economy — and for global stability?
The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday to do something that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago: lift the restrictions on exporting domestically produced crude oil that have been on the books since the 1970s. It’s a topic that is definitely heating up in Washington: During a Senate hearing Tuesday on energy security, in which I testified about the importance of ensuring that the 40-year-old Strategic Petroleum Reserve can continue to be effective in an emergency, the questioning was overwhelmed by senators asking U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz to lift the restriction. The move, which many U.S. oil producers cheer, comes at a bleak moment for them.
A combination of surging oil supply and economic weakness sent oil prices plummeting in August for the second time in the last year, hitting six-and-a-half-year lows — down nearly 40 percent from their 2015 high reached in May. Although U.S. production has held up better than expected in a low-price environment, thanks to technological improvements and cost declines, U.S. producers have still been hit hard. After seeing output rise some 4.6 million barrels per day (b/d) since 2008 to a peak of 9.6 million b/d in June, U.S. oil output has fallen to 9.1 million b/d and is projected to fall several hundred thousand b/d further next year.
Because oil production from shale wells declines so quickly after initial production, producers must keep drilling new wells to maintain or grow their output. That also means that U.S. shale oil can respond much more quickly to price changes than conventional oil wells, as producers lay down rigs. But that process still takes time, with U.S. production just starting to turn south more than a year after the price collapse began. This, along with several other important factors, has weighed heavily on oil prices. Since OPEC chose not to cut production at its November 2014 meeting, the producer group has actually increased output by more than 1 million b/d. Further pressure on oil prices is coming from historically high global inventory levels, to which will be added the expected return of Iranian barrels to the market when sanctions are lifted.
Lower oil prices are generally good for U.S. consumers and the economy. Gasoline prices are currently at the lowest level for this time of year since 2006 — more than a dollar below where they were at this point last year — and are projected to fall to $2 per gallon by the end of the year. Heating oil and propane costs for the winter are projected to be 25 percent and 18 percent lower, respectively, than last year. Those gasoline savings of nearly $100 per month per household will act like a tax cut for consumers and could stimulate the U.S. economy. (Although initial surveys suggested consumers, nervous about the economic outlook, would rather save their extra money than spend it, a recent analysis of credit card data found they, in fact, spent most of their gasoline savings.)
But cheap oil can also bring unintended consequences.
First, cheaper prices can stimulate people to drive more and encourage more overall oil use. In the long term, U.S. oil demand growth is declining, with consumption in 2025 now forecast to be 34 percent lower than was projected just a decade ago. But in the short term, driving in the United States is up 4 percent over the last 12 months, and total U.S. oil consumption is projected to rise this year from 19.1 to 19.5 million b/d. Lower pump prices also cause complacency, as people forget that prices will invariably rise again. The average fuel economy of new vehicles sold in the United States in September was down 0.6 miles per gallon from its August 2014 peak, driven by the decreased price of gasoline and consequent increased sales of pickup trucks, SUVs, and crossovers.
And globally, oil demand in 2015 is now projected to be 900,000 b/d higher than was projected before the price collapse.
Second, low prices and falling U.S. oil output risk undermining momentum toward instituting smart policy responses to the shale revolution.
Second, low prices and falling U.S. oil output risk undermining momentum toward instituting smart policy responses to the shale revolution. U.S. oil output from shale will rise again as prices recover — the last year has forced the industry to make dramatic improvements in the economics of shale production — and state and federal regulation must continue ensuring that production happens safely. Tighter margins and lower profits seem to be leading businesses to fight especially vigorously against even low-cost and smart regulations — like the Obama administration’s new effort to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas production.
Third, while the U.S. economy benefits overall from lower oil prices, it benefits less than it did in the past. While consumers on the whole are better off, oil- and gas-producing states will see net employment declines — especially Wyoming, Oklahoma, and North Dakota — according to a study by the Council on Foreign Relations (Texas is the largest oil-producing state, but its economy is more diversified.) The overall impact on the U.S. macroeconomy of an oil price rise or fall also declines as U.S. import dependence declines, as the White House Council of Economic Advisors explains, due both to the smaller terms of trade penalty and the fact that when prices rise, more of the increase in oil producer revenue stays within the United States.
Fourth, while oil prices are low today, they are likely to be more volatile in the future due to important changes in the oil market.
OPEC has, for the time being, given up its role of market balancer, leaving very little buffer of spare capacity
OPEC has, for the time being, given up its role of market balancer, leaving very little buffer of spare capacity — the ability to quickly bring new oil supply into the market to compensate for production losses elsewhere. OPEC’s spare capacity today is less than 1.3 million b/d, the lowest level since 2008. Without that buffer, any disruption to global supply could have an outsized impact on price, though high inventory levels will help for a while. U.S. shale oil production can now contribute to the “swing supplier” role, as it can be ramped up and down more quickly than conventional oil. But, as we are seeing, that can take up to a year or longer. If prices fall low enough and long enough to pull U.S. shale oil off the market, and then rise high enough to prod it back, consumers may be in for greater price swings, especially without a buffer of spare capacity. Volatility can harm consumers by undermining their ability to make informed longer-term financial decisions, such as where to live or what kind of car to buy, and this uncertainty harms the economy more broadly, stymieing consumption and investment.
Fifth, lower prices create an increased risk of political and economic chaos in oil-producing countries. The World Bank estimates that a 10 percent decline in oil prices can cause economic output to contract 0.8 to 2.5 percent in some oil-exporting countries. In Saudi Arabia, oil exports account for almost 90 percent of budget revenues and 43 percent of GDP. In Iraq, the numbers are roughly 80 percent and 45 percent, respectively, while countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria are all similarly dependent on oil. Saudi Arabia has borrowed and dipped heavily into its foreign reserves, which have dropped from a peak of $737 billion last August to $655 billion one year later. Others don’t have that cushion to fall back on: Several of these countries were already facing instability before prices crashed, and the drop in oil revenue may push them over the edge. As a new study from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy explains, Venezuela may be most at risk of geopolitical and economic crises. Increased instability in producer countries can have significant ripple effects globally — from reduced revenue for the battle against the Islamic State to the stability of Caribbean and Latin American countries that have long depended on Venezuelan largesse.
Americans understandably cheer when oil and gasoline prices fall. And yes, on net, lower oil prices are indeed good news for the United States. But, with the United States reemerging as an energy superpower, it must now be wary of the risks that lower oil prices may bring.
40 Comments on "The Promise and Peril of Cheap Oil"
makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 6:37 am
The last sentence is a huge joke on the American public. “…reemerging as an energy superpower…”
Rah! Rah! Nothing negative here in the ‘exceptional’ fantasy land of America. All roses and mother’s apple pie from sea to shining sea.
Tell that to the 47+ million in the soup lines. The 100+ million without jobs. The million or so kids who go to bed hungry every night. The hard working men and women who see their buying power shrink like a cheap shirt.
The retired who cannot live on the 0.25% interest on their life savings as it too shrinks with the disappearing USD.
rockman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 7:06 am
OK…we can all start pissing on mak for his first sentence. LOL.
Mak: we certainly have our share of problems. But we aren’t “remerging”…we never stopped being a “energy superpower”. Super not only in the amount of fossil fuels we produce but equally important is our ability to outbid most on the world for what we consume but don’t produce. In fact more then once you’ve criticized us for having such an “imperial” attitude.
You can’t have it both ways, buddy: we’re either powerful assholes or we’re not. LOL.
Davy on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 8:05 am
I love when the Rock swats a fly!
makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:23 am
rockman, the Us imports at least half of it’s energy. How does that make it a ‘superpower’?
I’m not talking just barrels of oil or kilos of uranium. I’m talking about the energy in all of it’s imports. It takes a lot of energy to produce all of that junk made in Asia and shipped 8,000 – 10,000 miles across a wide ocean. The Us imports energy in that form also. A lot of it. ~$2,410,000,000,000.00 worth or $7,500.00 for each man. woman and child in the Us.*
And, Americans are not powerful assholes. Huge arrogant ones, yes, but not powerful. Not anymore, if ever. The Us is afraid to go man-on-man with Russia or China because the only way they could win would destroy the world.
The US hasn’t been powerful since… hmmm… maybe WW1. Nah. The US only came into that one after the Germans had been seriously weakened and then only for the last 6 months or so of the 5 year war. WW2? Ditto. Johnny-
come-lately there also, after the Russians did their work for them.
I will say that the Us has a very powerful propaganda machine that has totally brainwashed Americans into believing that ‘exceptionalist’ horseshit. It is so obvious, even on here. But the rest of the world is seeing behind that curtain, and the Us days are numbered. Us isolationism is coming again or WW3.
*http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html
Davy on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:36 am
Dog paw, I am not even going to comment on the above becuase it is priceless as it is. You did all the work for me by just being yourself. Talk about someone that can screw up a wet dream. You take the cake sunshine.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:45 am
For the anti-immigrationists here:
“Fleeing Europe and North America. Stop Millions Of Western Immigrants!”
“… We are told that some few hundred thousand African and Asian exiles are now causing a great “refugee crises” all over Europe! Governments and media are spreading panic, borders are being re-erected and armed forces are interrupting the free movement of people. But the number of foreigners illegally entering Europe is incomparably smaller than the number of Western migrants that are inundating, often illegally, virtually all corners of the world. … And they are coming and coming! They are unstoppable. Most of them are sick of their gray lives in Europe and North America. They are full of superiority complexes, but in reality, they would do anything to escape their loneliness, depression and emptiness at home. …”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/fleeing-europe-and-north-america-stop-millions-of-western-immigrants/5481103
Don’t like to think that Westerners are also disliked all over the world for their immigration? Puts the shoe on the other foot, yes? LMAO
And, yes, I am one of those, but I do not take, I give. I am not a burden on anyone. I contribute ~P800,000+ to the Ps economy every year. I merely convert my USDs to Pesos for which Citi takes 3% and the Ps gets the rest, minus my annual travel expenses to the States, that is. Another trip or two and that too will end and all my purchases will be here.
Plantagenet on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:37 am
Americans should be pushing for HIGHER oil prices, to reduce oil consumption and decrease US CO2 production to the atmosphere.
Getting the export ban lifted is one small step towards higher oil prices in the US. Next we need a carbon tax, but that will probably have to wait for Obama to leave office since he blocked the last proposal for a carbon tax in 2010.
Cheers!
apneaman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 12:04 pm
Planty, no one is going to do anything about anything. The only thing that will change, is in a couple of years, if you are stll around, you will have a new single individual (POTUS) to blame for inaction on AGW while you are globe trotting in high carbon spewing jets. The gun has been fired planty – it’s physics. Political action cannot stop physics and inertia. Y’all should have listen to POTUS Jimmy Carter when you had the chance – put your sweaters on. You made your choice. Was it Reagan who said that the American way of life is not negotiable? Wrong – physics, chemistry and biology are non negotiable. You been spoiled and privileged your whole life. Like me, you have had it better than 99% of all apes who ever lived or will. So the party will end a few decades sooner than you imagined. So what? That guarantee you thought you had was self generated. There are no guarantees.
BobInget on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 12:39 pm
Paltry efforts to pass higher gasoline taxes fell flatter then a double mastectomy. I know, cancer is as serious as it gets. So is this plan to export unrefined crude just as our principal suppliers are preparing to shift their own exports and domestic consumption away from
the US.
When I pound the table about Venezuela’s debt servicing imperative, few listen.
When mentioning “Energy East’ pipeline,
some people must believe the EXISTING pipeline is a dream.
When predicting Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Iraq are determined to crush Saudi Arabia
absolutely No One believes me.
At the end of the day, export bans don’t matter.
There won’t be any ‘extra’ crude to export.
Twenty Million barrels is what the US requires.
Twenty Million is what we gotta come up with.
For the trillions of dollars American’s went into debt over ME wars we could have locked in most of Canada’s and Venezuela’s future export production for a hundred years.
Expanded our alternative energies programs ten fold, modernized our grid for urban regions,
build high-speed rail, repaired our bridges,
schools, get ready for high tides, flooding.
What are we left with instead? Crushing debt.
Ambition to become like Nigeria or Venezuela.
GregT on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 1:13 pm
“Americans should be pushing for HIGHER oil prices,”
Right lil’ planter, all of that oil that the oil companies can’t afford to produce will then become profitable. Let’s not stop at $100/bbl oil, let’s go to $200/bbl. Just think how much more of the dregs they will be able to produce, while the world’s economies continue to spiral out of control, and the Earth becomes uninhabitable.
Once again planter, your brilliance shines through. Simple is, as simple does. We don’t need oil production to be more profitable than it already is. The lower the prices go, the less oil will be extracted out of the ground.
apneaman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 1:36 pm
The quickest way to generate revenue to mitigate climate change would be to put a climate action tax on anti depressants and snack cakes.
rockman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 1:58 pm
mak – “rockman, the Us imports at least half of it’s energy. How does that make it a ‘superpower’?” Easy answer: our super ability to outbid other oil importers for what we want. Does it make any real difference if our consumers are paying ExxonMobil for domestic oil production or paying a Canadian companies for those 3 million bbls/day of oil sands production? Either way our economy is getting the energy we need. Unlike folks in most other countries…including yours.
Of course it is also true that might doesn’t make right. But might does make superpower. LOL.
BobInget on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 2:09 pm
Can we look at ‘affordability’ ?
Young American males traveling through Europe during the middle of the last century were flabbergasted gasoline prices. How did working class Europeans manage on their meager pay? The answer? Most people simply didn’t have cars. Public transport within a few years after WW/2 was better in Europe then in the USA today.
In the Netherlands today there must be more bikes then sheep.
Nevertheless, even with scary gas taxes an emerging middle class wanted automobiles.
Most were willing to cough up $7/$10 dollars a gallon. Mind you this was at a time of buck a gallon USA gasoline.
I realize this doesn’t truly address affordability.
Distances in N.A. are greater leading go more miles driven. Still, there are lots of fast roads in Europe and F/1 racing and football are considered sports.
apneaman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 2:26 pm
Bob, most of the young American males who work for corporate America don’t need cars given their current living arrangements.
Prison State America: Inmates becoming corporate slaves in for-profit facilities
“For-profit prisons have created a “neo-slavery” in the US, according to award-winning journalist Chris Hedges. Inmates work eight hours per day for major corporations such as Chevron, Motorola, Nordstrom’s and Target, yet only have the possibility of making up to $1.25 an hour. In addition, companies that provide services like phone calls overcharge prisoners on even the most basic services, making hundreds of millions in profits annually. RT’s Ben Swann speaks to Hedges, who explains how this shadowy system came into existence.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9Qpa40m3DA
apneaman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 2:28 pm
Bob, why not add some of that private prison stock to your portfolio you greedy old peice of shit?
GregT on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 4:12 pm
“In the Netherlands today there must be more bikes then sheep.”
Ok Bob whatever. I used to commute as far everyday as the Netherlands are across. You’re comparing apples to bananas. Most of Europe was heavily populated long before there were any cars.
JuanP on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 4:53 pm
Bob, At least we do agree that the trillions spent by the USA in foreign wars were a terrible waste of resources. I start foaming in the mouth when I think about it.
This has never been about us not having the material resources or the time necessary to create a better world, it has always been about us lacking the intelligence and mental health needed to make the right choices. We are nothing more than primitive, ignorant, arrogant apes with an extremely high and unrealistic opinion of ourselves.
We will continue doing what we have always done, destroying the biosphere as fast and thoroughly as we can. I do hope we extinguish ourselves in the process, we definitely deserve it. Humanity is a metastasized cancer and humans are malignant tumors, even the cute little babies.
To all men: Be smart and get a Vasectomy while you still can. I did and I will never have to worry about getting any woman pregnant or humanity’s future. I am childfree and worries free, and that is just the way I like it considering where we are and where we are headed. Bringing a child to this world at this time is the batshit craziest thing anyone can do, IMO, but to each their own.
bug on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 5:21 pm
Amen JuanP, anyone having a child now is
clueless. To bring someone into this mess, is to me unbelievable.
beamofthewave on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 6:30 pm
IMO it has nothing to do with americans it has to do with corporations wanting to rule the world.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 7:48 pm
beam, it has EVERYTHING to do with Americans. They can change everything if they want to. How? The French knew how 220 years ago. Some heads rolled and change was made. Americans are the most armed citizenry in history, but they just kill each other and helpless animals for sport. TPTB know that they have to disarm the sheeple soon or they might just imitate the French.
Americans also had a Democracy and could, at one time, make real change at the ballot box, but they didn’t. They vote in the same senile fossils election after election because they promise benefits to the sheeple. Greed is what is taking down the Empire. Sloth, ignorance and denial is rampant.
The same greed, ignorance and denial is preventing them from taking down the mega corporations that are ruining their life and the ecosystem we need to survive. Wall street is the addiction. Easy money, not earned. They don’t ask why it is always going up, but they salivate when their 401ks climb and climb. They don’t want to know.
If anything, America has reached peak greed and/or peak ignorance.
James Tipperf on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 7:49 pm
“The U.S. House of Representatives”
Stopped reading right there, if you can tell me one U.S. politician in D.C. right now that genuinely cares about peak oil then please share it.
Of course none of them do, to admit the obvious would be political suicide. Although I know the U.S. is not the only democracy guilty of this, the U.S. certainly has the most to lose. I think I’m starting to consider people retarded the more they actually care about anything these idiots do.
It’s not a surprise that 60% of Americans don’t vote, the outcome is never really in doubt. That is the end of the empire, if only politicians could ease the slow transition downward. Alas that would be asking a lot of honesty from lobbyists, corporate cronys, and career politicians. I haven’t voted in 7 years, I don’t plan on doing it again anytime soon.
BC on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:25 pm
@bug: Agree. Each time I see a largely hairless human ape infant I smile and weep simultaneously.
@beam: Yes, that is the Anglo-American imperial corporate-state’s imperative; otherwise, someone else will do it at the owners’ expense.
@JT, the US is not a democracy, and neither are we a republic. We’re an imperial corporate-state owned by the top 0.001% who hire the POTUS as CEO of the corporate-state and buy the legislature and the higher court to make and affirm/enforce “the rule of law” on their behalf.
“No representation without taxation”, given that the top 1-10% of US households by ~40-70% of all income taxes.
The top 0.001-1% pay taxes for the gov’t they own as they pay for fees for service for house staff, nannies, drivers, legal and financial advice, etc.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:41 pm
In other news:
http://www.naturalnews.com/051471_NATO_terrorists_nuclear_war.html#
“The United States government has become “the world’s most dangerous terrorist organization,” warns former Reagan official”
BC on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:44 pm
JT, I voted once for the CEO of the imperial corporate-state in the past 35 years, in part because I was out of the country much of the period, but also because I subscribe to George Carlin’s perspective about forgoing casting a ballot to affirm the Power Elite’s choice for CEO of the imperial corporate-state.
Namely, as Carlin says, rather than if you don’t vote, you have no right to complain, I don’t vote, therefore, I have every right to complain about the candidates for whom everyone else votes and the outcomes that result. 😀
BC on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 9:52 pm
mak, the War of Terror by the Anglo-American, militarist-imperialist corporate-state is a critical aspect of the last-man-standing contest for the remaining resources of finite planet Earth.
That is, the imperative of imperial realpolitik is that if we don’t attempt to expend blood and treasure to secure the resources, shipping lanes, and strategic geopolitical alliances, another competing state will.
Thus, human nature, history, and the existential imperative for self-preservation is driving the world’s elites to compete in a global prisoner’s dilemma-like, end-game scenario, a place we have been numerous times throughout history.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 10:25 pm
True, BC. This time around, we have the ability to fry the world either slowly by Climate Change or instantly with the thousands of nukes waiting to be used. Which will it be? I suspect that as events move forward, nukes will be the act of last resort. Each side believing that they can survive the event and none being correct. Yes? No?
apneaman on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 10:39 pm
REPORTER GETS PISSED AND REPORTS THE REAL NEWS!
https://video-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xpa1/v/t42.1790-2/12067587_1045057778852272_1346394382_n.mp4?efg=eyJybHIiOjQzNywicmxhIjo3NjMsInZlbmNvZGVfdGFnIjoic2QifQ%3D%3D&rl=437&vabr=243&oh=bc81f522eaaf5ea9f983d13bd17a720f&oe=561B5359
MrNoItAll on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 10:41 pm
“last-man-standing contest for the remaining resources of finite planet Earth”
That about sums it up.
Twenty thousand years ago, it was a “last-man-standing contest” for the remaining resources within the geographical reach of combating tribes.
All human tribes throughout history and pretty much everywhere battled each other for dominance and control of vital resources and the land that provided those resources. It has ALWAYS been this way.
Due to the abundance of excess produced with fossil fuels, it may be that humanity has recently been able to put aside much of the incessant battling for food and survival and find a little spare time to develop a more enlightened outlook on human existence. But this period of relative calm has been temporary, a blip in time when compared to the history of humans on earth. Soon enough the excess will have faded away and humans will be back to doing what they have always done — fighting for resources.
When it comes to fighting other tribes/nations for resources, logic seems to dictate that it is much better to be the big dog rather than the small dog. In a dog-eat-dog world, either you’re the big dog exerting your will, or there’s a different big dog exerting its will over you. Which would you prefer?
dooma on Sun, 11th Oct 2015 11:01 pm
I don’t quite share the author’s optimism about the comfort of all the surplus oil being stored at the moment.
When-not if someone in Syria fucks up and a Ruski shoots a Yank or vice-vera, the shit is going to hit the fan big-time. Then we will see oil skyrocket in price as it has done previously in ME conflicts.
The ‘spare oil’ will not last long if supply is affected by conflict. How long have those wars been going on in Iraq and Afghanistan?
I would not be surprised if Iran has not already set to launch a shipload of mines into the Hormaz straight.
onlooker on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 12:04 am
“the US is not a democracy, and neither are we a republic. We’re an imperial corporate-state owned by the top 0.001% who hire the POTUS as CEO of the corporate-state and buy the legislature and the higher court to make and affirm/enforce “the rule of law” on their behalf”. Magnificently stated BC. I may add that description is same as saying a Plutocracy.
apneaman on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 12:29 am
MrNoItAll, I think the only reason we have civilization is because we were forced to turn to agriculture or die off after we extincted the low hanging fruit of the day. I think they were clever enough to know how to grow things millennia before the so called agricultural revolution, but why would you want to slave away from dawn till dusk when you could just go out megafauna hunting 1 or 2 times a month and spend the rest of the time flintknapping, doing cave art and hustling Neanderthal chicks?
Humans responsible for demise of gigantic ancient mammals
Early humans were the dominant cause of the extinction of a variety of species of giant beasts, new research has revealed
“Known collectively as megafauna, most of the largest mammals ever to roam the earth were wiped out over the last 80,000 years, and were all extinct by 10,000 years ago.”
http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_465673_en.html
GregT on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 1:12 am
Oligarchy is the new Fascism
“We used to have a system in America where some persons were considered to be the outright property of other people, and were exploited as such. Now we have a system where the property of one man is considered to have all the same rights as a person. In an unfettered, unregulated free market, that property is a king that never dies and you are all his slaves unless you are one of the owners of that property, and then you are of the economic royalty and everyone else who is not of that select economic royalty is a peasant. Free markets is the new slavery to a corporate personhood, never ending war is the new pathway to peace, and Oligarchy is the new fascism.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/15/1017214/-Oligarchy-is-the-new-Fascism#
makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 2:51 am
GregT, I would suggest that the plantation owners of yesteryear are the bankers of today. Rare is the person who actually owns what he has. Were it to be known, the banks own most everything of value.
If you have debt of any kind, they own you. If you have a credit card with a balance higher than you can pay off today, they own you. If you cannot pay cash for everything you want, they own you. And how many of us can do that? Few. Very few.
Those the banks don’t own are owned by their government. Freedom does not exist and probably hasn’t since cave man days. Even those at the top are not truly free. They have to always watch for the next alpha male who wants his harem/position/wealth/power. Or so it seems to me.
Davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 5:05 am
Ape Man said “only reason we have civilization is because we were forced to turn to agriculture or die off after we extincted the low hanging fruit of the day.”
Ape, this proved not the case in the America’s pre European conquest. There were cultures that were semi-nomadic that prospered. There were also civilizations that prospered and failed. It is not clear whether eventually these cultures would have advanced to the point the rest of the world was at but as of Columbus there were some fascinatingly sustainable cultural entities in the America’s.
I wonder if it was the horse that is responsible for all the destructive civilization. Was it the horse that allowed man to grow and conquer? Just a thought because the America’s appear different. I personally feel transportation allowed the exploitation and the concentration of resources necessary for an adaptive social narrative. The horse was our first real transportation.
Boat on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 9:05 am
Mak,
beam, it has EVERYTHING to do with Americans. They can change everything if they want to. .
You and Davy both think at some time in the past America had some golden age. You know why it is illegal for liquor stores to open on election?. So politicians couldn’t trade liquor for a couple drinks.
Americans have never been enlightened any more than citizens of any country/past/present and probably future.
The US has the largest prison population in the world and the most lawyers by far. Over 1,250,000. We like the rule of law a little more and are willing to spend on it.
One problem with the US system is the expense of litigation. The law is pretty fair only if you can afford it. To often the winner is decided by the quality of the lawyer and how deep your pockets are.
Boat on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 9:14 am
I meant trade liquor for a vote.
makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 9:34 am
So Boat, yes, The Us has the ‘rule of law’ as long as it is to the benefit of the wealthy. Not you or I. That is not ‘rule of law’, that is chains to bind you and I to the masters. 600,000+ of them to date. Even the best lawyers could not begin to know even a small percentage of them. And new ones added every day. Freedom? Bullshit!
Boat on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 10:16 am
Mak,
You go on and on about freedom. You tell me what that means. You can do what exactly with other systems that we can’t.
BC on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 1:07 pm
BTW, gents, the big oil stocks might be setting up a near-term daily top with support around the consolidation price zone for Sept.
That implies a pullback for WTI to the $42-$43 level.
But WTI needs to hold $42 for a monthly close, or that sets up a test of $37; and below that is a monthly stop at $32.
So, oil bullies, put on your stops.
FWIW.
apneaman on Mon, 12th Oct 2015 3:40 pm
Earthquake hits near Oklahoma oil hub amid fracking regulations
Scientists say that saltwater byproduct put into wells has contributed to rash of earthquakes
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/10/11/new-rules-on-fracking-earthquake-hits-near-cushing-okla.html