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Page added on September 24, 2015
The Crux Of The Problem
As world leaders convene for the UN Sustainable Development Summit in New York, to reflect on the progress of the Millennium Development Goals set in 2000 and adopt more goals for 2030, they ought to focus on the elephant in the room — a swelling global population that weighs on sustainability of social, economic and environmental development.
A swelling global population that has tripled since 1950, with a record high of 7.3 billion people, should not be overlooked in setting new international development goals.
According to the summit’s draft Declaration of the Sustainable Development Goals, the heads of state and government and high representatives resolve before 2030 “to end poverty and hunger everywhere; to combat inequalities within and among countries; to build peaceful, just and inclusive societies; to protect human rights and promote gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls; and to ensure the lasting protection of the planet and its natural resources.”
To achieve these lofty aims, the agenda includes a diverse set of topics, including 17 specific developmental goals and a broad range of 169 targets. Yet, population growth is not mentioned among the goals nor the targets.
Over the past 15 years, world population increased by 1.2 billion people and is now at a record high of 7.3 billion. During that time period, the population of the least developed countries grew nearly 10 times as fast as the more developed countries. The UN Population Division anticipates another billion by 2030 and at least 11 billion by the end of the century.
Today the average annual population increase of the least developed countries is 22 million compared to 3 million for the more developed countries. Also, whereas the combined populations of the least developed countries, about 954 million, represent 13 percent of the world’s population, they account for about 27 percent of the world’s annual population increase of about 84 million.
When the international community adopted the Millennium Development Goals in 2000, the population of the 47 more developed countries was about twice as large as that of the 48 least developed countries. Due to the substantial differences in rates of demographic growth, the population of the least developed countries is expected to surpass the population of the more developed countries by 2030. Looking further ahead, the world’s least developed countries are projected to have twice the population size of the more developed countries by around 2070.
While the average annual rate of natural increase — births minus deaths — of the least developed countries is 2.5 percent, the rates among some of the poorest countries are in excess of 3 percent, which translates into a population doubling time of less than 25 years. Most of this growth is in Africa: The populations of Burundi, Chad, Niger, Somalia and Uganda, for example, are expected to double by 2040. The countries projected to increase at least fivefold by 2100 include Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia.
In contrast, the average annual rate of natural increase of the more developed countries is about one-10th of one percent. In addition, with the numbers of deaths outnumbering births, some 18 developed countries are experiencing negative rates of natural increase, including Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Japan. Immigration is the only alternative to fertility for population growth. In the absence of sufficient compensating immigration, the populations of these aging countries as well as those of 20 others are projected to be markedly smaller by 2030.
A comparison of two countries with the same area, Uganda and the United Kingdom, illustrates the profound demographic changes underway. Several years before the Millennium Development Goals were adopted in 2000, the United Kingdom’s population was three times as large as Uganda’s. A few years after 2030, when the Sustainable Development Goals are scheduled for review, the populations of the two nations are expected to be the same size. Looking even further ahead, Uganda’s population is projected to be twice as large as the United Kingdom’s around 2075
The underlying reason for the rapid rates of demographic growth among the least developed countries is high fertility rates. While the average number of births for the more developed countries is around 1.7 births per woman, the average for the least developed countries is 4.3 births per woman. Considerably higher fertility rates are observed in many of the least developed African countries, such as Niger with 7.6 births per woman; Somalia, 6.6; Mali, 6.4; Chad, 6.3; Angola, 6.2; and Uganda, 5.9.
Many countries in various regions of the world have already passed through the demographic transition achieved by both low birth and death rates. At present nearly 80 countries, representing close to half of the world’s population, have fertility rates at or below the replacement level of about two children per woman. In contrast, about 21 countries, accounting for about 9 percent of the world’s population, have fertility rates of five or more births per woman.
Certainly lowering high rates of population growth to manageable levels is not a panacea ensuring sustainable development for the least development countries. However, reducing rapid rates of population growth will contribute substantially to the developmental efforts of those countries by making national goals easier and less costly to achieve.
Slower population growth rates will give those countries with more time to adjust to future population change. This in turn will strengthen their abilities to expand their economies, improve living conditions, educate youth, develop infrastructure and protect environments.
There is not a single issue among the sustainable development goals — including poverty, hunger, housing, education, employment, health, gender equality, human rights and environment — that would not benefit from reducing high rates of population growth. Lower rates of population growth among the least developed countries would also contribute to improving economic and employment prospects, while easing environmental stresses, thus reducing the pressures for young men and women to migrate to other countries to secure a decent standard of living.
Moreover, if fertility rates in the least developed countries were to decline faster than currently projected in the United Nations medium variant projection, the difference in population by the century’s close could be close to a billion people less, 2.2 billion versus 3.2 billion. Such a sizeable demographic difference would contribute to early stabilization of the world’s population.
As has been the case at previous global summits, world leaders will briskly walk into the UN General Assembly and deliver 10 minutes or so of largely forgettable prose. It would indeed be memorable if at least one leader recommended that the international community work together to address high rates of population growth.
In 15 years, the world population will have gained another 1.2 billion people and grow to 8.5 billion people. By then, nearly all of today’s political leaders will have either retired, been removed or passed away. Their replacements will address the UN Development Summit in 2030 — and by then, may find the courage to ask why rapid rates of population growth were repeatedly ignored for so long — and recommend that population growth be included in any future set of international development goals.
33 Comments on "The Crux Of The Problem"
Plantagenet on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 12:33 pm
The Gates Foundation is doing great work in providing birth control to millions of poor women in Africa and elsewhere, but much more needs to be done to control global population growth.
onlooker on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 12:34 pm
“to end poverty and hunger everywhere; to combat inequalities within and among countries; to build peaceful, just and inclusive societies; to protect human rights and promote gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls; and to ensure the lasting protection of the planet and its natural resources.”
I wonder why we did not try to do that before?
apneaman on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 12:38 pm
MAN, n.
An animal so lost in rapturous contemplation of what he thinks he is as to overlook what he indubitably ought to be. His chief occupation is extermination of other animals and his own species, which, however, multiplies with such insistent rapidity as to infest the whole habitable earth and Canada.
Ambrose Bierce
The Devil’s Dictionary
Davy on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 12:50 pm
Too late and with conflicting global needs. We need growth to take care of poverty and we need degrowth to take care of environmental issues.
If you took all that wealth of the 1% and liquidated it to solve global poverty issues the liquidation would be meaningless. The rich are not really rich. There wealth is an illusion to what the physical wealth of the planet is. Yes, the rich should not be living as they do that is clear but rid yourself of the notion you could liquidate the rich and apply that to the poor. There is not enough resources or productive capacity. Not only that the disruptive effects would destroy the global economy anyway.
This is a a double catch 22 of paralysis and action. Action leads to failure and inaction leads to failure. The narrative should be how can we do less harm, how can we practice relative sacrifice, and how can we downsize with dignity. There are some things we can change. Somethings we can’t change but we can mitigate. There is a shitstorm ahead that all we can do is try to live through it.
GregT on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 12:51 pm
“the whole habitable earth and Canada.”
That part made me laugh.
apneaman on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 1:11 pm
CANCER
a : a malignant tumor of potentially unlimited growth that expands locally by invasion and systemically by metastasis
b : something evil or malignant that spreads destructively
Its two main characteristics are uncontrolled growth of the cells and the ability of these cells to migrate from the original site and spread to distant sites. If the spread is not controlled, cancer can result in death.
synonyms: Man, Humans, People, Homo Sapiens, Naked Apes, Planty
apneaman on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 1:14 pm
Greg, I got my first copy of The Devil’s Dictionary when I was 15. Bierce is hilarious. Here is a cyber version.
http://www.alcyone.com/max/lit/devils/a.html
Hello on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 2:34 pm
It’s about time Africans are taken off the endangered species list, so hunting can commence.
JuanP on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 3:22 pm
Sustainable development has to be the most stupid contradiction in terms invented in human history. The fact that all these morons are not even willing to talk about overpopulation and fertility while trying to solve the world’s problems proves beyond any reasonable doubt that humans are the stupidest smartest species in the Multiverse.
If stupid is as stupid does, there couldn’t be another more stupid species anywhere! 🙂
JuanP on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 3:23 pm
Hello, I would gladly hunt you and skin you alive, fucktard!
penury on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 5:15 pm
JuanP hard as it is you need to ignore obviously seriously insane people like Hello. He presumes that fake names give you anonymity for posting on the net, i assure that he is about to discover how incorrect he is. Goodbye,Hello.
GregT on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 5:42 pm
“Sustainable development has to be the most stupid contradiction in terms invented in human history.”
Right up there with sustainable growth, and renewable energy.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Sep 2015 10:18 pm
Yep, anyone who exhibits those ideas in pubic is painting a huge target on his back that will eventually attract a reply in the form of a metal object embedded in the target. So be it. Ignorance deserves to suffer the consequences.
This is just another “justifying a paycheck” article. Ignore.
theedrich on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 3:51 am
What part of “overload” do the elites not understand? “[S]ome 18 developed countries are experiencing negative rates of natural increase, including Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Japan. Immigration is the only alternative to fertility for population growth.” Never mind that the projected immigrants are mostly either barely literate or completely illiterate and will never adjust to a developed civilization. The inswarming creatures from barbaria are virtually all parasitic, and the excuse for letting them flow in is boo-hoo and sob, sob. Never mind the impending shipwreck.
On Thursday, 2015 September 24, the pope gave a marvelous Marxist monologue before the Congress of the United States. His thickly accented, barely understandable reading of his text was in essence quite predictable: pop heroes such as Abe Lincoln, Martin Luther King, Dorothy Day and Thomas Merton were all mentioned, plus the notion that “we” (i.e., you, Whitey) should not be xenophobic (= racist), but should welcome the immigrants, since “all of us were once immigrants.” (Does he mean to include our evolutionary emigration from the lower primates?) Mysteriously, the Pope did not mention the obvious solution of birth control for the exploding ThirdWorlders. Obviously a slight lapse of memory. But never ye mind: we need to be the Camp of the Saints.
The lefty armchair philosophers will naturally excoriate every U.S. citizen who does not wish to be returned to the jungle by the newbies clamoring for freebies. But have no worries, little lemming: your future has already been determined for you by the cosmic masters you have elected.
apneaman on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 5:51 am
Enough with your never ending sniveling and belly aching like you have some special right to an life uninterrupted by history. Too fucking bad. You ain’t entitled to shit. Your future was determined the second you were born into the wrong time. Maybe pray to Ayn Rand or whomever for a do over. Since many will never buy your bullshit syncretic ideology, you will be forced to join up with the Teabaggers to protect your lily whiteness when the main force of neo sea peoples invasion arrives. Don’t let the baggers know you are a “non believer” – lower than gays and and non christians according to US polling data. That’s the one belief they share with the Moslems.
Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 6:22 am
Thee, your comments are always entertaining to read. I am not saying that in a bad way. You write descriptively well. I disagree with your message on the basic level we are all the same in the higher powers eyes. Even if you do not believe in a higher power just evolution with the backup of DNA science is pretty clear we are extremely close genetically. Our social development is very close. I am an egalitarian in this regards.
Our sameness ends quickly though on multiple levels. We are idiots to believe we have a global ability to take care of everyone. That is rubbish. We have global overshoot and there is no changing that. A die off will correct overshoot. There is nothing more egalitarian than a die off.
I feel we have a responsibility to try to not make this overshoot disaster worse for our neighbors. That is unless you do not believe in being good neighbors. I feel being good neighbors in a crowded global world is a must on a practical level. All of our survival depends on cooperation. We should not be harming other countries making their failed state status worse. That of course is easier said than done.
I am against immigration in the abstract and local. Most locals are in varying degree of overshoot per their relationship of dependence to the global. This overshoot is based both on overconsumption and overpopulation. Allowing more people into your local makes this overshoot situation worse.
Immigration is not something you can deal with effectively in a global world with free markets and free exchange of goods. We try but it is messy. In that regards I would say immigration should be restricted but not stopped until globalism comes to an end. I say this because you can’t stop it and immigration reasons are blurred. Our whole moral fabric is tied up in opposing tradeoffs of compassion and self-preservation.
We allow the rich and educated to move and quotas on the poor and uneducated which is clearly unfair and biased but smart. Illegal migration is going to become an epidemic as nations and local fail. A part of me sees mass migrations once the system fails completely. In the descent phase of collapse I see a period of immigration issues exploding into restrictions. Nations are going to succumb to pressure and attempt to end illegal immigration.
Once the descent gathers steam and widespread hunger is even part of the immigrant’s destination host nations will become militant about these migrations. If you are hungry you do not want more people. At some point the walls will come down by sheer mass and momentum. Nations will fail and be unable to stem the tide of desperate. This will have the effect of spreading failing states like locust swarming and destroying.
Eventually migrations will be restricted by a failing global system. Movements by motor transport will be reduced. There are not enough sail boats to cross the oceans. Walking will only work so fare before starvation. Eventually people will die in place. That folks is a bottleneck i.e. dyeing in place with no place to go.
Boat on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 8:42 am
apeman
Enough with your never ending sniveling and belly aching like you have some special right to an life uninterrupted by history. Too fucking bad. You ain’t entitled to shit. Your future was determined the second you were born into the wrong time.
Lol. You got that right. Just because you were born doesn’t give you the right to immigrate or migrate around the world.
apneaman on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 9:15 am
By what right did your ancestors come here on the boat boat?
Boat on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 9:29 am
apeman,
They were invited because the US wanted more population.
Countries have to change with the times dude. Anti immigration should have started decades ago when water shortages were first reported. When global warming was proved. You see apeman. To survive we have to change with the times. We are long past due for some changes. This is simple stuff. Just because we did stuff in the past one way, doesn’t mean we can ignore the future.
JuanP on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 9:49 am
Boat, You are not going to survive. You are going to die just like everybody else. You and everyone you know and love will die. It is only a matter of when. The only thing that is 100% certain about all living things is hat they will die. You are no exception. Grow up and accept your mortality. Every day you waste brings you closer to your death.
And the world will be a better place without you!
apneaman on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 10:14 am
Boat, what about the first Europeans to come here, who invited them? How long your people been here? The natives were here in 3 waves 12,000 – 15,000 years ago. Did the pilgrims have visas? No. So they were illegal and by extension so are you and every white person here. Nothing personal, just the law. Put your money where your mouth is Boat and deport yourself and your family and set an example for the rest of us illegals. Your invite was illegal. I hear Germany is taking in refugees right now – get in while you can. If Germany is closed, I hear there are tons of sand cheap properties in the MENA region. A literal fire sale. Best of luck boat, we’ll miss you.
apneaman on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 10:16 am
Hey boat, can you give me a heads up when that whole change thingy we are all gonna do to save the planet and the kids lives gets underway? Thanks buddy.
Kenz300 on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 12:42 pm
India will not be able to pull its masses out of poverty unless it slows its birth rate.
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
———-
USDA Calculator – cost of raising a child
http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/tools/CRC_Calculator/
Boat on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 12:44 pm
apeman,
Grow up, you can’t change history. Embrace reality and have a happy life. Try recycling, it might make you think you are doing something useful. There is lots of growth in going green. Buy efficient light bulbs and replace every one that isn’t. Much cheaper than killing off the Canadian middle class. Better yet round up Davy’s goats and feed the poor, a much better investment off of government dollars.
GregT on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 1:01 pm
Boat,
The rest of us are here to discuss issues that we are concerned about. I’m sure that you would find most of us “happy’ in our lives. I know that I am very happy with mine.
Embracing reality has nothing to do with happiness. You are one very mixed up individual. Which makes me believe that you are not happy with your life, because you choose to ignore reality. If, or rather when, you actually do grow up, you will understand the difference.
onlooker on Fri, 25th Sep 2015 1:21 pm
Yes Boat, we are calmly discussing the state of the world because most here are stable humans who have confronted the demons that plague mankind and are simply objectively chronicling the decline of civilization. I suggest you face reality then run from it, in the long run it is more therapeutic and happiness affirming. After all, living in fear eventually takes a toll on everyone.
theedrich on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 3:58 am
Davy,
Good comment, even though we disagree. (And your contributions are of course far better than the wretching of the unschooled apeman.) We have, yes, very close genetic connections with the chimpanzees, and share a great deal of our DNA even with plants. Many professorial types have vociferously accused us of being “speciesist” — i.e., not giving some measure of civil rights to the higher apes (or maybe even to the apeman near Hongcouver). Alas, no matter how much we might wish it, we cannot overcome the limits to growth. Something has to give. We must be speciesist if we wish to survive.
As a poet said many decades ago, “‘Go, go, go,’ said the bird: ‘human kind; Cannot bear very much reality.’” In the attempt to escape reality, large sections of mankind tried the Marxist route, leading to the death of over 150 million individuals. Indeed, many still hope for a Commie resurrection, so that all sentient beings can be made equal. Sort of like during the first three billion years of single-celled life on this planet before the Cambrian explosion. Somehow this “equality” will soothe the maniac leftist mind.
The primary principle in evolutionary ascent is intelligence. The philosophical term for it is evolutionary epistemology. A shark “knows” more than the fish it eats because its body has incorporated more intelligence (speed, strength, smell, special teeth, etc.). Ditto for other animals all the way up the food chain. Man is where he is because he has internalized this principle more than any other creature. Consciousness is a further development of this process, and science even more of an extension of it. 99% of all life forms that have ever existed are extinct because they were outcompeted in this process. Unintelligence leads to death.
The modern White man has adopted an ideology (Christianity and Judaism) which, for all its good work in developing learning and science, is now leading our subspecies to suicide. Mohammedanism wants to help us along that path, of course, but that desert creed would have no power unless European civilization had already decided to terminate itself. The unbridled materialism of what is laughingly called “sustainable growth” is yet another brain embolism of our elites, leading to the same dead end.
In short, the biosphere is approaching the tipping point, as most of us here know. The only question is: will we all go down the cosmic commode together, or will some garner the determination to survive, and not allow themselves to be dragged down by the lower types.
apneaman on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 4:25 am
Call me unschooled, bring up science and evolution then try and classify whites as a subspecies. Got some scientific evidence for that? You just make up shit, tell stories to bolster your fragile psyche. Invented superiority. Homo sapiens are 1 species. You get no renaissance without the islamic golden age. So how does it feel to know your superiority complex is standing on the shoulders of rag heads? You still have yet to enlighten us as to your great contribution to the white race and the advancement of the sciences. Tells us what would be different if you never existed? How would we we be impoverished without you?
JuanP on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 8:21 am
Thee, To make any distinctions between Judaism, Christianity, and Islam is quite foolish, IMO. All three of them completely suck and are totally irredeemable. Abrahamic monotheistic religions are the scourge of the Earth and the most destructive forces that ever existed in human history. Nothing else comes close to the damage they’ve done to the biosphere and humanity, not even the US government or the Nazis come close. But, if you want to choose a worst one amongst them, the Roman Catholic Church wins, hands down. The Muslims are not even a close second.
Davy on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 9:07 am
There is esoteric meaning in the Abrahamic monotheistic religions that is profound and has little to do with what all three mainstream religions are about. One should keep that in mind when criticizing these faiths. If you go back to pre-organized religions and dig very deep into what these movements uncovered you will find a profoundly important messages. I might add a message that is surfacing now with a coming bottleneck. This message is so simple as to be deceptively complex.
Roman Catholicism is no worse than any of the others in substance. Protestantism is in the same league. Christianity was only allowed to make a greater negative impact by the renaissance and the growing power of the European nation states. Missionaries and the phony Christian soldiers of these European nation states from the 18th and 19th century did their damage with the backing of the church and in the name of the divine. They were really only after conquest and riches.
I am Catholic and a member of a perish. A perish where my kids go to school. A school I am highly impressed with. A school that does much with little. At this level of community the religion is not damaging or bad. My perish struggles with money issues. It is dedicated to teaching a small group of kids how to be good people. It does a wonderful job teaching the kids and being responsible members of the community. It will be these type of communities in various locals that will be a backbone of strength in the coming collapse.
I often agree with you Juan but you are allowing your emotions and an overgeneralization of religions to make a blanket statement on something as large and complex as religion. I feel you are better than that. I know I opened a can of worms on this site because so many people hate religion on this board. I could care less. When it comes to matters of faith those who think they know anything are deceiving themselves. True understanding is about humility of not knowing in the end that impresses me and is the real meaning.
I am not religious as normal people practice. I do practice some of the Catholic religion through an occasional mass. I have a high respect for mother Mary and say the occasional rosary. Mother Mary I see as an extension of Mother Nature. I also follow other spiritual traditions. I find Taoism and Buddhism very enlightening and a faith basis. I am most influenced by an adapted Native American spirituality of the honoring of Nature.
Most of all I have no clue about anything spiritual. Theology and philosophy have been one of my deepest studies. In the end I have to say I can’t believe anything spiritual when one considers science. If you ever had a spiritual experience or any connections of the like then you know there may be something deeper and that is faith. When one looks at nature and the night sky one should understand you are a part of something. It is our dualistic self-consciousness that interferes with this unity to life.
Hatred of religion is very popular as is the widespread anti-Americanism that is rampant on this board. We must confront the evils of the bad side of religion and the American dream gone amok but it is the excesses, obsessions, and distortions that makes these arguments symptoms of the same failures we hate so much. My point is don’t get in bed with that which you are against. Far too many on this board do this. It damages our credibility and function as a clearing house of the truth. No, we don’t know the truth but I feel we here on Peak Oil dot com are closer to it than most.
theedrich on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 3:26 am
True, Davy, quite aside from such delicacies as beheadings and burnings at the stake, much good has been accomplished by religion, and historically, above all by the Catholic Church. Copernicus, who determined the planetary system was heliocentric, was a priest. So was Georges Lemaître, who first posited the “Big Bang.” Frankly, modern science would never have arisen without the scholars and universities supported by the mediæval and Renaissance Catholic Church. Catholicism (a Greek word, by the way) was the reason the Russians now have the Cyrillic alphabet (derived from Greek by Saints Cyril and Methodius) and we have the Latin one. My point is not that the Catholic Church has never done any good; it is that its hierarchy is now propagating population policies that are planetarily lethal. (And by the way, Mohammedanism, whose primitive “science” [mainly plagiarism of ancient Greek philosophy] died in the thirteenth century, has contributed nothing of serious value to the world since transferring to the West the Sanskrit numeral and mathematics system which they found in India after massacring huge numbers of Hindus. Besides their bloodsucking parasitism, the MENA sandmen did, however, contribute to the world the institution of the assassins — the name comes from the same root as hashish, which they took [and maybe still take] before their suicide-murders.)
I am glad your children are getting a good education in the classical tradition of Catholicism. But one can hope that the Robin-Hood-esque Latino Marxism urged on the West by Papa Francisco does not result in yet more White genosuicidism, which portends civilizational collapse. The situation is much more dire than most (unschooled) people realize.
apneaman on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 5:11 am
The Hassansins…. And Algebra and a shit load of other great accomplishments in many fields whose shoulders the modern world stands on. But then they turned to fundamentalism and anti intellectualism like much of America today.
Davy on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 7:50 am
Thee, I am in no way a fan of the Catholic Church. Our current Pope is a big improvement on past Popes for sure. Any organization like the Catholic Church is corrupted because power corrupts at this level. The real meaning of the deeper theology of the early church has been lost.
The real importance and exceptionalism of the Catholic religion is where it comes out at the local in humble and beneficial ways. Many small parishes are wonderful examples of community and local based efforts to make a better society. Many small perishes are based on teaching kids on how to be good citizens. Stupid teachings are past on from the top down. This is unfortunate but how can you get away from that? you can’t. Birth control is my biggest beef with the church at all levels.
It is the community strength of a small Catholic perish that will be a source of transition into the collapse. Many other religions have the same circumstances where their local expressions shine but the top leadership is corrupt and bad. Just because something is religious it should not be rejected. Just because a religion carries a poor history does not mean a local expression of its better meaning should be also put down.
The highest levels of the Catholic Church are corrupt and bad. I have read plenty on it and seen multiple documentaries. Many Catholic parishes are bad especially where child abuse occurred. I find it hard to go to a rich catholic parish church because I see rich people who if they believed the true meaning of what was being spoken they would not be rich.