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Page added on September 15, 2015
India Approaches Replacement Fertility
This Population Bulletin updates a previous Bulletin from 2006, India’s Population Reality: Reconciling Change and Tradition. Indias’s population (currently at 1.3 billion) will exceed China’s before 2025 to make India the world’s most populous country. India’s annual increase of about 19 million people contributes more to the annual world population growth of about 89 million than any other country.
However, the most recent population data shows a country headed for replacement level fertility—albeit, with notable regional differences in fertility trends.
India is a country of diverse ethnic, linguistic, geographic, religious, and demographic features. And, despite its emerging economic power and multiple megacities, Indian life remains largely rooted in its villages. Indeed, we argue in this Bulletin that deep-rooted cultural traditions will have a bearing on the ability of different regions of the country to reach replacement level fertility.
Carl Haub is a consulting senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau (PRB). O.P. Sharma is a PRB consultant in India. He is former deputy director of census operations in India.
21 Comments on "India Approaches Replacement Fertility"
James Tipper on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 5:15 pm
Before everyone comes in and acts like a total dick, one way or the other. I want to say good job India, I’m happy for you.
Makati1 on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 8:03 pm
Good start. Now they need to export more of them to other countries. I’m sure the US could use another few million Indians to run the 7-Elevens, and even Europe. Nah! Europe is taking in Africa and the Middle East currently. They asked for that influx.
I have noticed more Indians walking around Manila in the last few years, but they have to compete with the European, Japanese, Korean and Chinese populations that are also increasing here. You know you are not in the US when you get into the elevator and it sounds like a group at the UN. lol
Hello on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 6:40 am
Let me guess:
The muslim portion of india are breeding right rabbits. Am I right?
Kenz300 on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 8:42 am
Having a child that you can not provide for makes no sense……..
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
BobInget on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 8:57 am
India’s economy is set to grow faster then China’s.
An inconvenient fact often overlooked by oil bears.
Still, like China, tens of millions remain in abject poverty. Unlike China, English is the lingua franca
in a large nation with many languages.
In some cities there are schools teaching both English and American dialects. (for call centers)
“On the internet, no one knows you are a dog”.
New Yorker
I have a request. When speaking about foreign language speaking peoples in the US or Canada,
refrain from stereo typing. Please.
ghung on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 9:21 am
“India Approaches Replacement Fertility”??
When? And at what level? As always, the devil is in the details. Let’s go to the full report and see:
” India’s Future Population
India’s future population size will largely depend upon the course of the birth rate, particularly in the heavily populated northern states. United Nations 2015 projections provide one basis for considering India’s population future. The Low Variant shows India’s population growing from 1.3 billion at present to 1.5 billion in 2050 (see Figure 10). This projection, however, makes the assumption that the country’s total fertility rate will quickly decline to 2.1 children per woman in the period between 2015 and 2020 and, from there, to 1.4 in 2050. A fertility decline of that magnitude would be rather difficult for India and it is doubtful the government would want such a scenario.
In Kerala, citizens have already called for a rise in their low TFR, for fear of European-like fertility. The Medium Variant assumes that a TFR of 2.1 would be reached by 2025 to 2030 and continue to decline to 1.9 by 2050, resulting in a 2050 population of 1.7 billion people. Judging by the current
trend in the TFR, that scenario is plausible, depending upon the level at which the fertility decline levels off in the large higher-fertility states.
Finally, the High Variant assumes that the TFR of 2.6 in 2010 to 2015 would decline to 2.4 in 2050. This scenario shows the Indian population at 1.9 billion in 2050.”
http://www.prb.org/pdf15/india-population-bulletin.pdf
Gosh……
Rodster on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 9:34 am
As we can see, Asia is quickly becoming the world’s hog of resources. Good luck trying to feed and house 2.5 billion Indian’s and Chinese citizens in a global collapse.
ghung on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 9:53 am
Yeah, Rodster…
Medium population growth variants show China and India combined population at, or exceeding, 3 billion in 2050. This in a certain scenario of declining carrying capacity of their environment due to a myriad of factors. Of course, the demographers that make these projections aren’t ecologists, climate scientists, biologists, hydrologists, agriculturalists or engineers. They’re basically bean counters, and the beans are people.
Seems resources are going to be spread mighty thinly in most of the world well before these projections come to pass. Then, again, who needs resources or a liveable environment?
Rodster on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 11:00 am
David Ray Griffin who wrote a book about Climate Change put up a nice blog post on the subject.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article42827.htm
“9/11 and Global Warming: Are They Both False Conspiracy Theories?”
Davy on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 11:03 am
I would wager my left nut that we will not add over another 500Mil people. I support this with peak oil dynamics and systematic failures occurring in the global economic system both of which will prevent food production from rising. In fact I will project food productions levels dropping from POD and financial contraction operating in tandem with a abrubt climate change happening as we speak.
Food drops population will drop. Food type and consumption patterns cannot change this. The gross amount of energy available to make food and the systematic ability of the global economy to move food is they key. There is a numb nut Asiaphile on this board who thinks we can all eat grains and rice and support another billion or two. This is absurd and this individual should know better. The problem is it interferes with his agenda.
Modern global food production is about complexity and energy. Make it and move it is a very capital intensive and complex undertaking. All this with the need for an economic system of cooperation and confidence. Land has an intrinsic ability to raise particular types of food. That cannot be change and still be efficient. I will add to this the fact that the oceans fisheries are close to collapse. Aqua farming still relies on these fisheries for inputs.
I can’t see how this will hold over a few years considering the headwinds. I am amazed how the world has been taken over by bean counters that cannot grasp a reality above supply, demand, and substitution. If there is anything that can be pointed to as man’s greatest failure then that is economics. Economics is the primary reason we are where we are at and continuing to go where we cannot go.
BC on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 12:17 pm
http://www.worldvasectomyday.org/
Davy, right. World food production, stocks, AND UTILIZATION (a critical factor) per capita have peaked with world oil production per capita since 2005-08. In terms of net energy of the primary energy source and food utilization per capita, the economic system and associated infrastructure can no longer feed more people.
https://app.box.com/s/0vgiilt9j85ix0yzaq7zi851zx6qw08x
Therefore, population growth will decelerate faster and population will peak much sooner than the UN projects.
http://www.thwink.org/sustain/glossary/images/SystemDynamics_LimitsToGrowthGraph40YearComparison.png
But this is not new, as the LTG BAU scenario anticipated this 40-45 years ago.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1RbA
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1RbE
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1RbQ
BTW, US industrial production per capita peaked in 1998-2000, whereas services are just 3% above the 2007 peak, which is closely following LTG’s BAU scenario.
Peak Oil and LTG have already occurred with the vast majority of us being unaware of the fact and the implications.
Davy on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 12:53 pm
BC, as you say all the information is available what is not available is the societal narrative. Society simply is not prepared to admit we are at the end of the line. It is not like this information is not clearly evident from multiple scientific disciplines. Economics is the only field that is truly in denial and unfortunately it has the greatest impact on policy and decisions.
apneaman on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 1:22 pm
Davy, no society ever had a narrative when nearing the end of the line and all the indications were there as well. We have more data, but the ancients were not stupid. Today as in the past, societies under threat from their own actions always seem to ignore the elephants and we go to great lengths to do this, but put us under threat from another tribe, real or imagined, and watch the apes get busy making their preparations. How many commenters have said something like, “we need a Manhattan project for climate change” or peak oil or whatever. It’s the same reason why the PTB couch much of their control and profit propaganda memes in terms of “A war On…..”. Apes are not hardwired for long term threats and solutions, but are fucking awesome at responding to out-group threats. Get right on that or run like hell. Taking the steps necessary to ensure long term stability is just not in our biology because it would be like going to war on ourselves. At our very best, we might have extended techno industrial civilizations run by a handful of decades. How often are apes societies at there best? A 30 year stretch here, a 50 year stretch there sprinkled throughout history.
Kenz300 on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 3:45 pm
Too many people and too few resources……..
Yet the world will add 80 million more people to feed, clothe, house, and provide energy and water for this year……..
The poor will always be poor if they have more children than they can provide for……
apneaman on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 5:39 pm
I bet we could approach replacement fertility if we basically decriminalized/normalized rape like they do in India.
“Sorry I’m late mom – got gang raped on the way home from ballet practice again”
“well, try and leave a little earlier next time and don’t struggle so much”
“ok mom, will do”
Boat on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 6:27 pm
apenam……what an insensitive idiot.
apneaman on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 6:57 pm
Boaty did your Texas PC sensibilities just get all offended? Awwww. Who woulda thunk it? I actually would like to see some of that Texas justice up here for our rapists and stone cold killers. BTW the Indians like to take their woman abusing and raping culture with them when they immigrate. We hear about it regularly here in Vancouver. They still do honor killings too. Get at about one a year around here and they are the only group that does not inter marry. They frown on it and still do unofficial arranged marriages, but of course if someone like me says anything then I am a racist or “insensitive”. You been sucked into all that PC bullshit boat. The truth ain’t always pretty.
Makati1 on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 8:39 pm
Ap, some cannot accept our ape beginnings. Rape was likely common then and has not left the male genes. They should go to a zoo and watch the primates “play”. Their Texas sensitivity may get bruised…lol.
You are correct. Those who think we have changed just because … are dreaming. We are still animals with a thin veneer of ‘civilization’ that wears off after the 3rd meal is missing.
I also think that guns will not protect the doomstead owners when the time comes. Odds are, the gang that raids the farm will be better armed and led by an Alpha male who wants to keep his position in the group (and his girls) more than he wants to keep you alive. How many will be ex military who have lived thru Iraq, Afghanistan, etc? They will likely not be the local accountant at the bank. And they will be armed with the best the local arms dealer/gunshop/armory can provide.
Davy on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 8:49 pm
Or when the hungry young men of the Phillipines raid farms for white pork in need of stew meat.
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Sep 2015 2:10 pm
Global study reveals soaring antibiotic resistance in India
““Much of this data has never seen the light of day before because we dug it out from private clinics in these middle-income countries like India,” says Ramanan Laxminarayan of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in New Delhi, India. “It’s the first global snapshot of antibiotic use and resistance.”
The analysis reveals soaring rates of resistance in countries of growing wealth, especially India, where more people are demanding antibiotics for minor infections, and resistance rates among bacteria are soaring. “We’ve seen a huge increase in MRSA in India, from 29 per cent of isolates in 2009 to 47 per cent in 2014,” says Laxminarayan.
Equally alarming, he says, is a surge in Klebsiella pneumoniae, which can cause fatal lung infections. It is resistant to Carbapenems, an antibiotic that is used as a last resort. In 2014 57 per cent of samples tested in India were resistant, compared with virtually none six years ago. “These bugs weren’t a problem at all, but now we stand on the brink of almost losing a whole class of vital antibiotics,” says Laxminarayan.”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28180-global-study-reveals-soaring-antibiotic-resistance-in-india/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=SOC&utm_campaign=hoot&cmpid=SOC%257CNSNS%257C2015-GLOBAL-hoot
Kenz300 on Sun, 20th Sep 2015 7:27 am
Too many people and too few resources…….