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Page added on September 10, 2015
US Oil Production to Fall
Government forecasters on Wednesday said U.S. oil production fell to a nearly one-year low and that low crude prices are likely to keep U.S. production falling through 2016.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its monthly short-term energy outlook, said that production fell by 140,000 barrels a day in August from the prior month. Production averaged 9.6 million barrels a day at its peak in April, the highest level since 1971, and has steadily declined since then to 9.1 million, the lowest since September.
Oil traders have been closely focused on U.S. production in recent months, after a global glut of crude oil sent prices plunging in 2014. With the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries producing above its target of 30 million barrels a day, investors say U.S. production needs to fall to make the market less oversupplied.
The agency has pushed back its expectations for a U.S. production recovery by about six months, saying monthly production will keep falling until it hits 8.6 million barrels a month until August 2016. It lowered its output expectations for both 2015 and 2016 by about 1.5%, to 9.2 million barrels a day this year and 8.8 million barrels a day next year.
“Current low oil prices are making some U.S. oil production less profitable,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement.
It also cut its price forecast for both U.S. and global crude benchmarks through next year. The agency said U.S. crude would average $53.57 a barrel in 2016, down 1.6% from its previous forecast. The U.S. price averaged $93.17 a barrel in 2014.
Brent will average just $58.57 a barrel in 2016, EIA said, trimming 1.4% from the previous forecast. In 2014 Brent averaged $98.89 a barrel.
23 Comments on "US Oil Production to Fall"
Hello on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 6:45 am
So the 1971 peak still stands. Phew! That was a close one.
Fat Lady on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 7:35 am
So here in the US we witnessed a 7 year increase in crude oil production. From about 5mb per day to almost 10mb per day.The new “Saudi America” is now old news.
Makati1 on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 7:47 am
And then there is:
“The Biggest Red Herring In U.S. Shale”
“US drillers about to start hemorrhaging: Schork”
“Move Over Exxon, Russian Drillers Are Oil World’s Top Performers”
“Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound”
“Financial Sector To Cut Credit Supply Lines For Oil And Gas Industry”
Etc. http://ricefarmer.blogspot.fr/
“
rockman on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 8:00 am
“So here in the US we witnessed a 7 year increase in crude oil production. From about 5mb per day to almost 10mb per day. The new “Saudi America” is now old news.” And in those 7 years we saw the inflation adjusted price US consumer paid increase from $58/bbl in 2009 to $87/bbl in 2014. So consumer spending for US oil increased from $529 million/day to $1.2 TRILLION/day. Certainly good for the oil patch…not so much for US consumers.
“Saudi America”? During the same period when US consumers were paying an extra $680 million per day for US oil the KSA was receiving an additional $270 million/day in revenue. It has always been difficult for the Rockman to understand how folks try to compare the US (a major oil importer) to the KSA (a major oil exporter). Seems to go way beyond the apple vs orange comparison conundrum. LOL.
Nony on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 8:44 am
Price is under $45 (WTI) and under $50 (Brent), now.
Let’s approve Keystone XL and repeal the export ban law. Put more pressure on world price.
Fat Lady on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 9:39 am
Don’t worry Nony, as the US and Canada production of c+c plummets the price will once again rise……….or not.
rockman on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 11:14 am
“Let’s approve Keystone XL”. Difficult to see how importing more Canadian oil into the US (the largest oil importer) would put upward pressure on prices. Since supplying more landlocked Canadian oil to the US would reduce the import demand from other countries how would that allow those countries to increase prices in the face of a falling market share?
Of course the clever folks out there understand what the Rockman just said was prime Grade A bullsh*t. LOL. The Canadians are exporting every bbl of oil they are producing today to the US without that short section of KXL.
And please don’t point out that the new line would reduce shipping cost because if it did it would allow produces to lower their prices and maintain the same revenue stream. Cheaper transportation does not encourage higher oil prices.
Must be coming up on a full moon: some of the comment are nuttier then usual. LOL.
beammeup on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 11:59 am
Pricing pressure can be upward or downward. Not sure which direction Nony was suggesting
Nony on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 6:45 pm
“Difficult to see how importing more Canadian oil into the US (the largest oil importer) would put upward pressure on prices.”
It would put downward pressure on price, moron.
“The Canadians are exporting every bbl of oil they are producing today to the US without that short section of KXL.”
The lower the price is, the less oil the Canadians will produce. If it costs them $20 to transport their oil instead of $7, that’s $13 lower price at the wellhead.
——
Dude, you are such a blowhard and a moron.
GregT on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 8:08 pm
Markets still looking grim Nony? Temper tantrums aren’t going to help. Best to get out before you lose your shirt.
Makati1 on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 9:14 pm
When the going gets tough – the name calling begins…lol.
Boat on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 9:51 pm
The world oil price needs to be high to help with population control. Even though I did enjoy filling my tank for $1.97.
GregT on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 10:16 pm
OK Boat,
I’ll bite. How do you believe that higher oil prices will “help with population control”?
Boat on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 10:51 pm
Less people can afford to eat. Remember China in the 50’s? Lost 48 million? That doesn’t happen any more on that scale. Tech made the food available and shipping and handling is cheap now.
Governments give the stuff away now. Remember how Eithopians can live on less than $300 per day. There food is cheap because the world subsidizes them. How many times have we saved N Korea from starvation. The list is endless.
High oil prices keeps the world from growing faster and there is less money to give. Note all the debt. If oil got so high countries could not share and poor countries not get subsided, that’s when your crash happens.
apneaman on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 10:54 pm
Prove it boat.
Boat on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 11:07 pm
ape,
If bread was $500 a slice. Would you quit eating bread? I bet you wouldn’t give it away.
apneaman on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 11:18 pm
I would kill you and take yours and sell your family into slavery or science experiments.
GregT on Thu, 10th Sep 2015 11:35 pm
Boat,
Once again you are not thinking things through. If oil prices remain where they are at currently, and economies continue to stagnate, it won’t just be the poor countries that will crash and starve. It will be our countries as well. Which is exactly what many of us here have been trying to say all along.
Makati1 on Fri, 11th Sep 2015 12:37 am
apneaman, I bet Boat never saw that coming. Reality is a bitch, isn’t it? LOL
Makati1 on Fri, 11th Sep 2015 12:46 am
GregT, I know I use Ps stats a lot, but I am familiar with them. You are correct. The 1st world is going to suffer much more then the 3rd.
The US uses ~9,500 kWh/year in total energy per capita.
The Philippines uses ~580 kWh/year per capita.
Who do you think is going to hurt the most with higher energy costs or shortages?
Gasoline here in the Ps is still almost $4/gal, down from about $5/gal that it averaged over the last 7 years.
Others cannot assume something about the rest of the world based on local conditions they observe.
apneaman on Fri, 11th Sep 2015 1:09 am
Scientific Experiments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tiHm544-CM
apneaman on Fri, 11th Sep 2015 1:46 am
Now Zerohedge, the so called financial blog, is running guns and ammo and knife advertisements while stoking racial tensions and pretending it’s just another informational article. Think the US is nearing the end? What’s next, Better Homes and Gardens going to run a piece on how to kill quickly with the hedge clippers?
Guide for Learning to Use a Sidearm to Defend Yourself, Your Loved Ones, and Your Property, Should a Race War Break Out
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/guide-learning-use-sidearm-defend-yourself-your-loved-ones-and-your-property-should-
Beery on Fri, 11th Sep 2015 5:34 am
Oil production to fall? I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.