What’s Behind the Whipsaw Moves in Oil Prices?

26 Comments on "What’s Behind the Whipsaw Moves in Oil Prices?"

BobInget on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 9:32 am 



The two reporters never mentioned geopolitics. Like correspondents on this board. Fearful of say the wrong thing, most here say nothing.
Denial doesn’t work for oil wars either.

BobInget on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 9:34 am 



Bearish EIA repore. Oil will tank.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 28, 2015
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week
ending August 28, 2015, 269,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 92.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production
increased last week, averaging 9.8 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
increased last week, averaging over 4.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.9 million barrels per day last week, up by
656,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil
imports averaged about 7.7 million barrels per day, 0.2% above the same four-week
period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and
gasoline blending components) last week averaged 835,000 barrels per day. Distillate
fuel imports averaged 77,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) increased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 455.4 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at
least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels
last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories
and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 0.1 million barrels last week but are in the middle of the average range for
this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.6 million barrels last week and are
well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories
increased by 5.7 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels per
day, up by 2.9% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline
product supplied averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, up by 4.8% from the same period
last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, down by 5.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied
is up 2.3% compared to the same four-week period last year.

BobInget on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 9:42 am 



Imports of everything higher, driving storage
higher and prices lower.

Consumption off 100,000 B p/d from last week, 200,000 from week prior. Summer driving season coming to close.

Still, percentages higher then last year.
4.8% for gasoline 3.7 for diesel
Jet fuel consumption up 2.3%

We, the public are being led up a garden path. At that path’s end lurks shortages and
higher prices. Import numbers here are key.

BobInget on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 10:24 am 



Today in Yemen ………..BBC

{Quick read, By hook or crook KSA just handed Yemen to Islamic State and al Qaeda.
Bottom line, KSA will be tied up for a decade)

Unseen by most of the world, the once tranquil port of Aden is being steadily infiltrated by jihadists from both al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP) and the so-called Islamic State (IS).

They are not in charge of the city, the military forces of the UAE are. But in the last few days disturbing reports have emerged of the summary executions of prisoners by the jihadists, along with their black flags hoisted onto public buildings.

The war in Yemen, now in its sixth month, has effectively offered the jihadists a backdoor entry into the country’s second most important city and a major Indian Ocean port.
“The jihadists have been taking advantage of the chaos in Aden to infiltrate the city,” says Aimen Deen, a Dubai-based consultant and former jihadist himself.
Nigel Inkster, the director of transnational threats at the London think-tank IISS and a former director of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, concurs.
“AQAP are a very opportunistic organisation,” he says.
“What has happened in Aden has created an opportunity and given them scope to expand there and in certain parts of the country.”
So what exactly has happened in Aden? Very bad things in recent weeks is the answer.
For 128 years, the Indian Ocean port of Aden and the adjoining hinterland was a British protectorate and later a crown colony.(30)

KEEP IN MIND

US forces are involved in Yemen, up to our necks.The very, very last thing USA or KSA need is having to deal with infiltrators
coming over the borders doing damage to oil infrastructure.

Plantagenet on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 10:25 am 



Note the significant INCREASES in gasoline consumption over a year ago. The posters here who claim there is no oil glut or the glut is solely caused by decreased US oil consumption must have all flunked math because the data shows oil consumption is actually higher but oil production has grown even more —- hence the oil glut.

CHEERS!

Plantagenet on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 10:30 am 



Stop worrying about IS Bob. President Obama has assured the nation that they are the JV and its not even worth the time to develop a strategy against them

Cheers!

Davy on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 11:14 am 



Any posters who discounts or dismisses demand destruction as a reason for oil over supply is uninformed or delusionally bought into the failed growth narrative pushed by MSM. Those who refer to this repetitiously as a glut are intellectually shallow.

onlooker on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 11:42 am 



Absolutely, Davy. Given the level of debt from the micro level to the macro level, given the fact that main street bubbles have all burst and given the historically high price of oil since 2008 despite recent downturn, all this amounts to weak economies world-wide meaning demand destruction

BC on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:01 pm 



http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103400001&f=M

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M

The YoY surge in gasoline sales follows successive earlier annual declines of 28%, 25%, and 15% respectively for 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Since Peak Oil, sales are only down 60%.

So, we’re back to 2013!!! We’re on our way to absorbing the “glut”! 😀

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Khe

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Khp

Above is US gasoline to working-class wages adjusted for core CPI and the US$. Gasoline is at the same price as the previous two recessions, but that’s just a coincidence, surely.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Khj

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Kho

Same vs. all wages and salaries.

Recessions are great for “gluts”. 🙂

BC on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:07 pm 



http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wgfupus2&f=4

😀

BC on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:10 pm 



http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFSTUS1&f=W

🙂

Plantagenet on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:17 pm 



Davy et alia

If there is demand destruction then why has demand increased?

Look at the numbers in bobs post you math challenged people you. US oil consumption is UP!!!

Cheers!

apneaman on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:36 pm 



planty, as a system nears it’s tipping point it tends to swing to the extremes. No amount of econ 101 double speak or motivated reasoning can explain it away, but keep it coming – it’s very entertaining.

WHIPSAW

shortonoil on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:52 pm 



Production is falling (US production down 1.4% EIA), inventories are building (up 7.6 mb API), and the price is down 65% from the January 2014 high. You would think that some people might notice that this has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or a “glut”?

But they don’t!

joe on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:55 pm 



Global demand is down, thus the oil glut. Nobody but America can afford 100dlr oil.

Davy on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 12:56 pm 



Planter, oh great challenged one, consumption can be up in a demand destruction scenario. Oil is not a proper gauge in this regards. All the other industrial indicators are what should be look at. In our case they are clearly across the board down or challenged per normal fundamentals. Got it great one?

GregT on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 1:11 pm 



“If there is demand destruction then why has demand increased?”

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Albert Bartlett (RIP)

Planter, you are a perfect example of this. Your basic arithmetic skills are non-existent.

onlooker on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 1:22 pm 



Plant, because oil is not a luxury it is a necessity particularly in the US of A. Yet if you look globally demand for oil is down.

onlooker on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 1:23 pm 



These wild swings were all predicted as cause and effect on the downward side of Peak Oil.

12 mpg Guy on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 2:15 pm 



Joe – “” Nobody but America can afford 100dlr oil””. el wrongo [respectfully]. Most countries pay the same or more for benzene (gasoline) as the States.IE. England = >$5/gallon for the past 4 decades and Ausralia – yokee palkee – they pay as much as $8/gal during the peak price periods. It’s like cosmetics to women… people with cars will find money to drive their cars.

12 mpg Guy on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 2:21 pm 



Today said: According to Stuart Varney and cohorts: America is facing the cheapest gas prices for the up coming Labor Day holiday than in the last 11 years. 19 States today with gas prices below $2/gal. ( Joe: sorry – it should have been spelled: “yolki palki” ).

GregT on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 2:34 pm 



Woo hoo! Get out there and drive like there’s no tomorrow people! Consume, consume, consume! What could possibly go wrong?

onlooker on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 3:14 pm 



Yep live for today the hell with tomorrow. Oops tomorrow has arrived.

marmico on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 3:16 pm 



this has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia

So quart shy of oil, of the 1.3 mb/d OPEC increase (3.1 mb/d globally) in production increases between April 2014 and April 2015 (latest EIA data point), how much did Saudi contribute?

You are a fucktard!

GregT on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 4:43 pm 



Holding your breath until you’re blue in the face, temper tantrums, and name calling, are not going to stop people far more intelligent than yourself from performing critical analysis of the world’s energy situation marmico.

BobInget on Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 6:40 pm 



http://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/his-town/

Lead:
The assembled experts were trying to make sense of a Middle East in greater turmoil than it had been since World War I. Starting in 2010, the Arab Spring had toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. A protest movement in Syria had morphed into an armed revolution, while sectarian violence in Iraq split the country apart. The Islamic State, or ISIS, surged to fill the resulting power vacuums, exploiting long-held resentments and capturing an extraordinary amount of American-provided weapons and equipment. In June, it swept across Syria, claimed Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, and declared a global caliphate.

(open that link for a good tale)