Since its publication in 2011, Steven Pinker’s “The Better Angels of our Nature: Why Violence has Declined” has sparked a rigorous debate between some of the world’s most prominent thinkers.
Traversing from pre-history to hunter-gatherer times to the present, Pinker concludes that we are living in the most peaceful time in history.
Compared to our anarchic beginnings, levels of violence are at an all-time low and the “Long Peace” after the Second World War is, for now, still with us.
But when confronted with tragic events such as those just last week inTunisia, Kuwait and France, Pinker’s conclusion can feel irrelevant.
Last year 180,000 people were killed in internal conflicts, a number 3.5 times higher than it was in 2010.
Deaths from terrorism have risen fivefold over the past 15 years, killing more than 32,000 people in 2014.
UNHCR estimates that almost 60 million people are now either refugees or internally displaced because of conflict and violence. This is the highest it has been since the Second World War and equates to almost one per cent of the world’s current population.
The latest figures for deaths by homicide are at almost half a million a year. Violent demonstrations are more prominent and perceptions of criminality are rising.
Peace Indicators that are Getting Worse
The global economic impact of military and security spending, interpersonal violence, civil conflict and terrorism in 2014 was $14.3 trillion or 13.4 per cent of world GDP,
This is equivalent to the combined economies of Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom and represents an increase of 15.3 per cent from 2008.
Such figures are staggering. While they do not negate Pinker’s observations, they do highlight that complacency is a luxury that those living in supposedly the most peaceful time in history can ill afford.
Professor Steven Pinker at The Oxford Union in 2014 (Rex)
In his book, Pinker goes further than describing the decrease in violence over time. He offers potential reasons for the decline, including the rise of the nation-state, the growing appreciation of the value of life and increasing global interdependence.
While he explicitly states that the decline in violence “is not guaranteed to continue”, it is still dangerously easy to conclude from historical data that progress towards world peace is inevitable and to achieve it we should continue as we are.
Essayist Nassim Taleb, author of the bestselling book “The Black Swan”, has made a career out of highlighting the dangers of using historical data to predict the future and criticises Pinker’s work on a point of interpretation.
In particular he argues that the “Long Peace” is an illusion and with Pasquale Cirillo shows that while mass-violence has been declining, the statistical risk of mass-violence may not have.
The recent release of the Global Peace Index (GPI) from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) shows that peace over the past eight years has had two distinct and divergent trends.
For example, in 2014 Europe continued long-term trends of improvement as homicide rates and interpersonal violence continue to drop to record lows.
Concurrently, escalating civil war and steep rises in terrorism in the Middle East have caused severe deteriorations in peace in the region.
Such trends show that the distribution of peace across the globe is mirroring wealth: peaceful countries are becoming more peaceful while the most violent are becoming more violent.
Considering that more than two billion people live in the 20 least peaceful countries in the world, the net effect of this widening peace gap is disproportionately skewed to the negative.
Whether you believe the world is more peaceful depends on your frame of reference and statistical choices.
Our research suggests the world is certainly a less peaceful place than it was eight years ago, and recent events are a sober reminder of that fact.
Dr David Hammond is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economics and Peace. A copy of the 2015 Global Peace Index report is available to download.
apneaman on Sat, 4th Jul 2015 7:04 pm
I got about 1/4 of the way through the book and could go no further. I think Pinker had decided his conclusion long before he did the cheery picked research. Too bad since he had done some great work prior.
Hubbert on Sat, 4th Jul 2015 7:24 pm
Steven Pinker has to be one of the biggest idiots in human history. He’s right up there with George Bush. This is where the educational system has failed.
Makati1 on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 2:43 am
The world did not get more violent. The US did. There would have been peace in the world for the last 70 years if the US stayed in their own 50 states and minded their own business instead of trying to conquer the world.
Davy on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 3:25 am
Mak, if you don’t have anything of substance to say just don’t say anything. As a daily contributor why pollute the site with useless and unsubstantiated rhetoric? Don’t you care about making this board look intelligent instead of a tabloid rag?
Boat on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 5:00 am
Conquer the world? Think that the Germans might have had something to do with the largest war.
Boat on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 5:42 am
Mak, look up top 10 world causes of death. Violence is not one of them. Well road injury comes in at #9. Maybe you should worry about wars and rumors of wars when they make the top ten chart of causes of death.
Jaki Natividad on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 8:40 am
Mak is always spot on. Had it not for America’s unsatiable greed , there would have been peace on earth.
USA is the cancer of all cancers.
This nuisance nation should be totally eradicated on the map as soon as possible.
If it isn’t too much to ask God to expedite my request……
No need for lenghty explanation.
Davy on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 8:53 am
Jaki, tell me what dumbass country you are from so I can mention why you should be eradicated. The problem with pussies like Jaki is they are afraid to stand up and say this is who I am and it is why I deserve to be righteous. If you are in fact godly and divine Jaki then you will have a natural aura of righteousness. Yet, I doubt you are much more than a jerk like Mak. You and Mak make me sick. You and Mak are the type of people that have evil in your hearts. You and Mak pray for evil to visit people to satisfy your dirty resentment. I spit on you Jaki as if you were a criminal.
Makati1 on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 8:57 am
Jaki, you just made some enemies of those who have been brainwashed to think they live in the ‘exceptional’ empire…er…country. They do not see the real world where almost every problem in the world since WW2 has involved US instigation/support/invasion.
No country can be allowed to be independent of their control or they go on the shit list as “enemies of the state”. They want to control all resources and peoples in every country. If ever a country deserved what is coming, the US does.
Davy on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 9:09 am
Mak, this is not about being a part of any country it is about being a fellow human being. You and your sidekick Jaki are not part of our common human community. You two are as bad as those you hate. You talk the same talk as those you hate and if you could you would do as those you hate. You and Jaki are just another part of the reason this world will go down in flames of pain, suffering and death. Mak, you have evil in your heart and show it daily. I spit on you as easily as I do your sidekick Jaki.
rockman on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 10:40 am
You guys are so funny. Thanks for the laughs. To think that human nature varies based upon some arbitrary lines drawn on the global map. And that human nature has also significantly changes over time.
All that has changed significantly over time is the firepower. Stones and drones: as if the death from one is any different then death from the other.
Jaki Natividad on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 1:08 pm
Ha ha! Davy dahling, why would i tell you. I wont give you the satisfaction of getting even with me via your senseless bashing.. As far as i know, i” m a citizen of the world, I’ am one with other citizens of this world who love peace.
Did you get me Davy?
Your country raped the whole world , and is still raping it to this point. Totally disgusting !!!! A nation who invested all it’s resources for just one industry. War. Need i say more Davy?
You tell me.
Davy on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 1:25 pm
Jaki your such a whore, are you coming on to me dahling? I am wondering if the Makster is using the ol Jaki sockpuppet trick. Jaki is talking just like the Makster. Makster come out come out wherever you are.
Makati1 on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 8:35 pm
Jaki, You have style! Go for it!
apneaman on Sun, 5th Jul 2015 9:50 pm
I don’t think saying the US raped the whole world is accurate. It was more like half cuddle half rape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrpBJqvr5r8
Davy on Mon, 6th Jul 2015 3:10 am
New girlfriend Mak? I remember in one post many months ago you mentioned you don’t have a woman. I can understand why. A board girlfriend is of pretty limited use though. I suspect Jaki is a sock puppet maybe for clueless.
Richard Ralph Roehl on Mon, 6th Jul 2015 11:18 pm
Steven Pinker is probably smoking crack.
Jaki Natividad on Tue, 7th Jul 2015 9:33 am
Davy, judging by the way you express your comment, i really believe that money can not buy ” class”.
Thanks Mak !
Davy on Tue, 7th Jul 2015 10:04 am
Jaki baby, stupid is and stupid does. Have fun with your idiot boyfriend Mak. You two are a perfect match.