Conventional Crude Oil Production Reaches New High

49 Comments on "Conventional Crude Oil Production Reaches New High"

meld on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 5:56 am 



If you’re pumping more and more oil out of the ground, but using more and more oil to do that then your production isn’t growing. It’s like drinking your own piss to stay hydrated, eventually you’re just going to die.

ERRATA on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 6:16 am 



Of course,

I recommend:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/the-eias-drilling-productivity-report/

rockman on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 7:15 am 



“If you’re pumping more and more oil out of the ground, but using more and more oil to do that then your production isn’t growing”. Production is growing. EROEI in general is still very positive. OTOH while growth isn’t controlled by EROEI it is controlled by economics. And the positive nature of that dynamic is controlled by the price of oil. The anticipated decrease in US oil production will be a result of lower oil prices…not lower EROEI.

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 9:20 am 



I’d like to see someone plot a chart of energy available per capita and at what price point. Since 2000 the world’s population has increased by 1.2 billion people, or 20%, and oil has risen from $25/bbl to $147/bbl and back down to $60/bbl.

Volume is not showing us the real picture.

penury on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 9:24 am 



I guess the Corns have been right all along. 5) last but not least reserves depletion. I shudder to see the consternation if resources were actually considered important.

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 9:52 am 



This is the June 2015 edition of Oil Production Vital Statistics. The May 2015 Vital Statistics is here. EIA oil price and Baker Hughes rig count charts are updated to end May 2015, the remaining oil production charts are updated to April 2015 using the IEA OMR data.

World total liquids production up 460,000 bpd to 95.7 mbpd

OPEC production up 160,000 bpd to 31.21 mbpd (C+C)
N America production down 250,000 bpd to 19.55 mbpd
Russia and FSU down 10,000 bpd to 14.05 mbpd
Europe down 20,000 bpd to 3.45 mbpd (compared with April 2014)
Asia down 149,000 bpd to 7.86 mbpd

The mismatch between regional production losses and gains compared with the global number is probably buried in the IEA revisions which are backdated up to 3 months. All that can be said is that over the last 3 months production has grown within each region and globally.
The fall in US oil rig count is slowing but still falling. The US total rig count stood at 1 rig below the previous low point of 876 reached on June 12th 2009.
The oil price rally has stalled with the formation of an interim top in progress. There is as yet little sign of a significant drop in US production.
The current action appears to be demand driven, the low price raising demand more than it is suppressing supplies.

ENERGY Matters

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 10:03 am 



Saudis Say:
Can’t run a proper air War without Jet fuel.
Lots of jet fuel.

Saudis also increased ‘defense budget’ past 52 Billion. I’m not writing 52 billion off to good will.
I’m adding those billions to what the world calls the ‘cheapest oil’.
Here’s KSA’s news release.

Saudi Arabia Says It’s Pumping More Oil to Meet Higher Demand

Andrew Critchlow

June 9 (Telegraph) — Oil prices spike after Saudi Arabia
refutes report that it was pumping more crude to compensate for
lower prices

Oil prices have risen sharply after Saudi Arabia’s oil
ministry issued a rare statement refuting press reports that it
was pumping more crude simply to take share in a declining
market.

A statement from the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral
Resources said: “The rise in the kingdom’s production over the
past three months is a result of the oil market conditions,
specifically increased global demand and the needs of the
Kingdom’s permanent clients. It is not designed to compensate for
lower prices, as claimed.”

The ministry added: “This negatively affects the kingdom’s
interests and Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries) and runs counter to economic logic.”

The statement, attributed to an official source, was in
response to an article by The Wall Street Journal. It also
follows Opec’s agreement last week to keep production levels
unchanged despite a number of producers, including Saudi Arabia,
pumping at higher levels.

The kingdom has increased its output of crude to more than
10m barrels per day in recent months, as oil prices have
recovered somewhat from last year’s sharp retreat from levels
above $100 per barrel.

Brent crude rallied sharply following the Saudi statement
and traded at more than $64 per barrel.

Last week, Mohammed Saleh al-Sada, acting president of Opec
and Qatar’s oil minister, said that the group expects oil demand
to pick up in the second half along with prices, which are up
around 30pc this year.

The statement also suggests that Saudi Arabia is trying to
dampen down talk that it is seeking to gain more market share at
the expense of other producers, both inside Opec and in the US
where the shale revolution has seen North American drillers
emerge as major suppliers.(30)

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 10:09 am 



It will happen when we least expect it.
Ten plus million barrels a day off the market.

Overnight, oil supplies drop 10 million barrels a day in the face of increased military demand if none other.

shortonoil on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 10:21 am 



“Volume is not showing us the real picture.”

At this point volume is showing us very little. It is the slight of hand that has been used by the industry for the last few decades. A barrel of oil today delivers, on average, to the end user 70% of the energy it did in 2000. The end user uses energy, not volume, and we have a non growth world economy to testify to the effects of that.

The world now has a gigantic inventory of “volume” that has no buyers for it. It is composed of liquid hydrocarbons that don’t deliver energy. At least not enough to make it worth buying; if it did some end user would have bought it. They didn’t, and now most of that 1.08 mb/d touted by OilPrice.com sits in a storage tank, not a gas tank.

The oil industry will continue to proclaim that all is well, and its cheerleaders will chime in to testify to it. They will do this as prices continue to fall below operational cost, and they lay off 100,000’s of workers. They will also be doing it as they shut in wells, then fields, and then their doors. It is now the end game, and the industry will use any means to keep it going for as long as possible. What was crude oil is morphing into snake oil, and snake oil is used to move money from one pocket to another. It goes without saying that move will not be into yours.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

joe on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 10:54 am 



Good figures. Anyone who watches charts would imagine that things are looking good. But the chart is also showing the trend of a long plateau, where the last statement is clear, more men and machines are needed in response to a dip in supply. It also admits that opec has thrown caution out the windows as it fights itself and tight oil. That’s sounding to me like the actions of a desperate person, not a sane steady one.

Revi on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 11:07 am 



We are not using it all right now, which means that there is less incentive to use it. In my town for example about 5% of the people are homeless, and 1 out of 6 houses are abandoned, so those people aren’t using much, and the former occupants have died or moved away. It’s an interesting way to run a country. Soon we’ll be running on pure denial.

Revi on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 11:13 am 



It’s interesting that we are at a new peak right now. Will it drop in 2016?

Plantagenet on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 11:33 am 



The oil glut can’t go on forever…..and when it stops we’ll be that much closer to peak oil.

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 11:45 am 



The PetroYuan Is Born: Gazprom Now Settling All Crude Sales To China In Renminbi
Tyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2015 11:25 -0400

China Crude Crude Oil Iran Japan Market Share OPEC Renminbi Reserve Currency Reuters Saudi Arabia SWIFT Ukraine Vladimir Putin Yuan

Two topics we’ve deemed critically important to a thorough understanding of both global finance and the shifting geopolitical landscape are the death of the petrodollar and the idea of yuan hegemony.

Last November, in “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died And No One Noticed,” we said the following about the slow motion demise of the system that has served to perpetuate decades of dollar dominance:

Two years ago, in hushed tones at first, then ever louder, the financial world began discussing that which shall never be discussed in polite company – the end of the system that according to many has framed and facilitated the US Dollar’s reserve currency status: the Petrodollar, or the world in which oil export countries would recycle the dollars they received in exchange for their oil exports, by purchasing more USD-denominated assets, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one held US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop.

The main thrust for this shift away from the USD, if primarily in the non-mainstream media, was that with Russia and China, as well as the rest of the BRIC nations, increasingly seeking to distance themselves from the US-led, “developed world” status quo spearheaded by the IMF, global trade would increasingly take place through bilateral arrangements which bypass the (Petro)dollar entirely. And sure enough, this has certainly been taking place, as first Russia and China, together with Iran, and ever more developing nations, have transacted among each other, bypassing the USD entirely, instead engaging in bilateral trade arrangements.
Falling crude prices served to accelerate the petrodollar’s demise and in 2014, OPEC nations drained liquidity from financial markets for the first time in nearly two decades:

By Goldman’s estimates, a new oil price “equilibrium” (i.e. a sustained downturn) could result in a net petrodollar drain of $24 billion per month on the way to nearly $900 billion in total by 2018. The implications, BofAML notes, are far reaching: “…the end of the Petrodollar recycling chain is said to impact everything from Russian geopolitics, to global capital market liquidity, to safe-haven demand for Treasurys, to social tensions in developing nations, to the Fed’s exit strategy.”

Shifting to the idea of yuan hegemony, China is aggressively pushing its Silk Road Fund and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

The $40 billion Silk Road Fund is backed by China’s FX reserves, the Export-Import Bank of China, and China Development Bank and seeks to increase ROIC for Chinese SOEs by investing in infrastructure projects across the developing world, while the $50 billion AIIB is funded by 57 founding member countries (the US and Japan have not joined) and will serve to upend traditionally dominant multilateral institutions which have failed to respond to the rising influence and economic clout of their EM membership. China will push for the yuan to play a prominent role in the settlement of AIIB transactions and may look to establish special reserves in both the AIIB and Silk Road fund to issue yuan-denominated loans.

Back in early November, SWIFT data showed that 15 new countries had joined a list of nations settling more than 10% of their trade deals with China in yuan. “This is a good sign for [yuan] adoption rates and internationalisation. In particular, Canada’s [yuan] usage for payments, which has increased greatly over this period, is very interesting since we have not seen strong adoption of the [yuan] from North America to date,” Astrid Thorsen, Swift’s head of business intelligence said.

Earlier that month, China and Russia indicated that going forward, more trade between the two countries would be settled in yuan. From Reuters, last November:

Russia and China intend to increase the amount of trade settled in the yuan, President Vladimir Putin said in remarks that would be welcomed by Chinese authorities who want the currency to be used more widely around the world.

Spurred on by their often testy relations with the United States, Russia and China have long advocated reducing the role of the dollar in international trade.

Curtailing the dollar’s influence fits well with China’s ambitions to increase the influence of the yuan and eventually turn it into a global reserve currency. With 32 percent of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves invested in U.S. government debt, China wants to curb investment risks in dollar.

The quest to limit the dollar’s dominance became more urgent for Moscow this year when U.S. and European governments imposed sanctions on Russia over its support for separatist rebels in Ukraine.
“As part of our cooperation with this country (China), we intend to use national currencies in mutual transactions.The initial deals for rouble and yuan are taking place. I want to note that we are ready to expand these opportunities in (our) energy resources trade,” Putin said at the time, suggesting that going forward, Russia may look to settle sales of oil in yuan.

Sure enough, Gazprom has confirmed that since the beginning of the year, all oil sales to China have been settled in renminbi. From FT:

Russia’s third-largest oil producer, is now settling all of its crude sales to China in renminbi, in the most clear sign yet that western sanctions have driven an increase in the use of the Chinese currency by Russian companies.

Russian executives have talked up the possibility of a shift from the US dollar to renminbi as the Kremlin launched a “pivot to Asia” foreign policy partly in response to the western sanctions against Moscow over its intervention in Ukraine, but until now there has been little clarity over how much trade is being settled in the Chinese currency.

Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of state gas giant Gazprom, said on Friday that since the start of 2015 it had been selling in renminbi all of its oil for export down the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline to China.

Russian companies’ crude exports were largely settled in dollars until the summer of last year, when the US and Europe imposed sanctions on the Russian energy sector over the Ukraine crisis…

Gazprom Neft responded more rapidly than most, with Alexander Dyukov, chief executive, announcing in April last year that the company had secured agreement from 95 per cent of its customers to settle transactions in euros rather than dollars, should the need to do so arise.

Mr Dyukov later said the company had started selling oil for export in roubles and renminbi, but he did not specify whether the sales were significant in scale.

According to Gazprom Neft’s first-quarter results issued last month, the East Siberian Pacific Ocean pipeline accounted for 37.2 per cent of the company’s crude oil exports of 1.6m tonnes in the three months to March 31.
With that, the “PetroYuan” has officially been born and while FT notes that “other Russian energy groups have been more reluctant to drop the dollar for settlement of oil sales,” the fact that Russian producers are now openly considering a shift at the same time that officials in the US and Europe are openly discussing stepped up economic sanctions suggests renminbi settlements may become more commonplace going forward.

To understand why and to what extent this is significant in the current environment, consider the following from WSJ:

Officials of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which declined to cut oil production last year, reasoned that maintaining high production levels would protect market share in crucial importing nations.;

But Chinese customs data released Friday show that China’s crude imports from some big OPEC nations have plummeted, while imports from Russia surged 36% in 2014. Meanwhile, imports from Saudi Arabia fell 8% and those from Venezuela dropped 11%.

To summarize: Western economic sanctions on Russia have pushed domestic oil producers to settle crude exports to China in yuan just as Russian oil is rising as a percentage of total Chinese crude imports. Meanwhile, the collapse in crude prices led to the first net outflow of petrodollars from financial markets in 18 years, and if Goldman’s projections prove correct, the net supply of petrodollars could fall by nearly $900 billion over the next three years. All of this comes as China is making a concerted push to settle loans from its newly-created infrastructure funds in renminbi.

Putting it all together, the PetroYuan represents the intersection of a dying petrodollar and an ascendant renminbi.

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 12:11 pm 



Petro-Dollar is in transition.Okay i’ll accept that.

Just as as everyone should have their children learn Mandarin, English will remains the dominant lingua franca. IOW’s two petro currencies can operate side by side.

We’ve seen these trades before. Iran and Russia
both feeling constrained by US sanctions finally come together waking up to the fact that they, not the West are holding not all the cards but a
fine assortment of face cards.

I would like to stress however one looming fact.
Russia won’t be able to supply more then a third
of China’s (oil&gas) imports.
India and China are capable of slurping up every last barrel of exportable barrel, world-wide.

While the US prepares to reinvade Iraq in a futile effort to hang on to some control, China was busy making loans, deals, pipelines and canals.

(Both China and India, 2.3 billion, are showing growth rates around seven percent)

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 12:24 pm 



I hate to bother you while eating.
Libya is going down hill quickly.

http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-aligned-fighters-libya-clash-misrata-militias-outside-oil-rich-port-city-sirte-1848904

It’s my firm belief the aim of the so called Islamic State will be to control, set prices, decide who gets how much of world’s oil supply.

If IS can ‘take’ Iraq, Syria, Libya and Saudi Arabia, anythings possible.

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 12:29 pm 



“It’s my firm belief the aim of the so called Islamic State will be to control, set prices, decide who gets how much of world’s oil supply.”

Or maybe they’ll just use their oil resources for themselves, to rise their own populations out of abject poverty?

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 12:53 pm 



No, not exactly.GregT.
check this out.Something I’ve been harping on here for months, going down now.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2suga1_saudi-arabia-israel-have-held-5-secret-meetings-since-2014_news

The facts are in. Saudi Arabia and Israel have found common ground in their hatred (fear) of Iran. KSA upped its ‘defense’ budget (for 2016)
from 17 to 52 Billions. Neither nation is ‘chicken’
to make absurdly unapologetic, stupid military moves. Attacking Iran will hand Iraq to ISIS just as Saudi air attacks are giving Yemen to ISIS and al-Qaeda.

What this says to me, we could be in for the longest, most protracted (oil) war in modern history.

If the US supports Israel and KSA in this coming adventure, we should all move to Uruguay .

BobInget on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 1:00 pm 



Could Saudi Raids on Yemen be a warm-up
for hitting iran?

(from another energy board)
“If a nation was going to say….I don’t know…work with Israel to attack…say Iranian nuclear and military faculties…what would you need to do”?

1) establish communication with Israel. Check.

2). Test out your huge, high tech but unblooded airforce in a massive live fire drill in Yemen. Check.

3) Include even all your GCC neighbors somehow in that test. Say in a Coalition. Check.

3). Make sure that Iranian proxy armies in Syria and Lebanon had been broken, bloodied and starved of strategic weapon capabilities. Check.

3) Make sure that world oil inventories were absurdly high and that oil prices were as low as you could make them so that the resulting super spike just went back to Brent 120 not to Brent 200. Check.

apneaman on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 1:16 pm 



It’s Official: The Shale-Oil Boom is Over

“It comes now from the US Energy Information Agency, and is headlined by Bloomberg Business, so yes, it’s official. As Bloomberg put it, “US Shale Boom Grinds to a Halt.” Which, actually, is overstating the case by a good bit, there isn’t going to be a “halt.” Nevertheless, as sane people everywhere have been insisting for years, the shale boom is, as it always was going to be, a bust.”

http://www.dailyimpact.net/2015/06/09/its-official-the-shale-oil-boom-is-over/#more-2937

apneaman on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 1:17 pm 



U.S. Shale Oil Boom Grinds to a Halt as OPEC Keeps Pumping

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/america-s-shale-oil-boom-grinding-to-halt-as-u-s-forecasts-drop

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 1:23 pm 



My question was rhetorical Bob.

If you have been following my posts for the past several years, you would understand that this is exactly what I have been saying all along. The CFR dictates US foreign policy, and has done so since the turn of the 20th century. ISIS was planned, and supported by the globalists. Syria will be destabilized, and the final goal has always been Iran.

This is not about hatred or fear of Iran, and it is not about oil. It has always been about Israel, her bankers, her globalists, and their plans for a one world financial system/ government.

It is also naive to believe that religion is not playing a very big part in this. The Jews believe that they are God’s chosen people, and when King Solomon’s temple has been rebuilt, that will usher in the return of the Messiah and God’s kingdom on Earth. They believe that they will have dominion over Earth, along side of The God of Israel.

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 2:12 pm 



Also an FYI,

It is not only the Jews that believe this, it is also a belief held by many Christian organizations.

https://studyingbibleprophecy.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/jews-rule-over-gentiles-in-the-millennial-kingdom/

Plantagenet on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 2:21 pm 



@grgr

Your claim that “ISIS was planned and supported by the globalists” has a germ of truth in it.

Newly leaked documents now show that the Obama administration intentionally created IS–they funded it and armed it to fight Assad in Syria, even though they knew it was an Islamist terror group.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-08/ex-us-intelligence-officials-confirm-secret-pentagon-report-proves-us-complicity-cre

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 2:44 pm 



The Obama administration does not dictate foreign policy planter.

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 2:44 pm 



The Obama administration does not dictate US foreign policy planter.

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 4:32 pm 



A few tidbits for those who still do not believe:

“Welcome to the Temple Institute”

SHALOM AND WELCOME to the official website of the TEMPLE INSTITUTE in Jerusalem, Israel. The Temple Institute is dedicated to every aspect of the Holy Temple of Jerusalem, and the central role it fulfilled, and will once again fulfill, in the spiritual wellbeing of both Israel and all the nations of the world. The Institute’s work touches upon the history of the Holy Temple’s past, an understanding of the present day, and the Divine promise of Israel’s future. The Institute’s activities include education, research, and development. The Temple Institute’s ultimate goal is to see Israel rebuild the Holy Temple on Mount Moriah in Jerusalem, in accord with the Biblical commandments.

https://www.templeinstitute.org

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 4:35 pm 



ALL WHO PRAY FOR THE FULFILLMENT OF THE BIBLICAL PROPHECIES that promise the reestablishment of the Holy Temple in Jerusalem are invited and welcome to become part of the Temple Institute’s vision, and share in these efforts. Please visit our membership page (secure server) for more information about supporting the Temple Institute and member’s benefits.

https://www.templeinstitute.org

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 4:51 pm 



***New Details Emerge on Rebuilt Altar of Jewish Holy Temple***

As Breaking Israel News reported earlier this month, the Temple Institute in Jerusalem has completed the construction of the stone altar required for the sacrificial service in the Holy Temple.

The altar was completed late in 2014, and officially inaugurated during the Institute’s public kindling ceremony for the Golden Menorah on the seventh night of the Hanukkah holiday, which fell on December 22.

The base of the altar contains two portals for collecting the blood poured during animal sacrifices, in accordance with the Torah. It is also crowned with four raised corners, called horns by the Torah.

The altar was designed by architect Shmuel Balzam, who is also drawing up the plans for the Third Temple.

http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/33583/new-details-emerge-rebuilt-holy-temple-jewish-world/#PQSFoMFpzG5IWfZf.97

shortonoil on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 5:16 pm 



There appears to be a massive denial of the fact that petroleum’s ability to power the economy is declining, and rapidly. The shale boom has now imploded, oil states are having trouble keeping their lights on, and populations in toilet paper, the petroleum industry is racking up multi $trillion debt levels, EXXON admits that it can no longer grow. and storage tanks around the world are over flowing as prices continues to fall through the floor.

This is hardly due to some ongoing Middle East tribal war. The same war that have been ongoing for the last 3000 years. It is hardly due to the Saudis attempting to maintain market share from a competitor that could not compete with them to begin with, or Israel’s 50 year feud with some Arabic state. Those are all minor effects of one massive, civilization crushing depletion cause. Worrying about ISS blowing up an Iraqi refinery when 30% of the world’s producers are now underwater on their production is like arguing over what color the deck chairs should be on the Titanic.

The real questions are not what the befuddled State Department will do in Syria, or what self destructive sanction will appear next against Russia. The real questions are what are we to do when the ATMs stop working, when the government can no longer make the transfer payments that keep 40% of America alive, and who is going to treat your high blood pressure? The Middle East is irrelevant to tomorrow’s questions. Russia is a dying ember in a world wide conflagration. They have a commodity that soon no one will want, or be able to afford. Ignore the long draw out rhetoric that is meant to, and can only serve to obscure. Keep your eye on the steam roller that is coming down your own street, the one in Baghdad will run out of gas long before it makes it to your neck of the woods!

GregT on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 5:32 pm 



“Those are all minor effects of one massive, civilization crushing depletion cause.”

There are religious zealots all across the planet who believe that these are the signs of the ‘Ends of Days’, and not only are they looking forward to what they believe is coming, they are trying to speed it up.

Myself, I’m getting out of Dodge.

Speculawyer on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 6:59 pm 



Good timing for this decision. Kill two birds with one stone . . . reduce climate change risks and stick it to Putin with one good policy decision.

HARM on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 4:08 am 



“Newly leaked documents now show that the Obama administration intentionally created IS–they funded it and armed it to fight Assad in Syria, even though they knew it was an Islamist terror group.”

Triangulation and “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” realpolitik has been going on considerably longer than the current President has been around.

A whole lot of money and weapons went “unaccounted for” under Bush-Cheney, Reagan traded arms for hostages with Iran (while Oliver North was running cocaine to fund the CIA operations in El Salvador). During the Cold War, the U.S. propped up all sorts of horrid, brutal dictators as long as they agreed to stay pro-American vs. pro-Soviet. Even today, we lavishly fund and support the KSA, which is a notorious sponsor of extremist anti-U.S. terrorism.

shortonoil on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 10:45 am 



“Myself, I’m getting out of Dodge.

84% of all the petroleum that will ever be extracted has already been removed. This value results from a fairly straight forward calculation that relies on the energy content of a unit of petroleum. Its energy content is a quantity that is know to an accuracy of several decimal places. The problem is that the 84% that has been extracted was the best of the total reserve. What remains is low quality products that are no longer able to drive economic growth. This is evident in the industry’s pursuit of sources of supply like shale.

Without economic growth the old paradigm fails. The debt based monetary system that the world depends upon to facilitate a world wide industrial complex at some point will no longer be sustainable. In recent years we have witnessed that event unraveling as Central Banks have been forced to print 10’s of $trillions to prevent massive debt defaults. This has been basically a band-aid approach that has done nothing to reverse the underlying problem. The underlying problem being no growth resulting from the deteriorating quality of energy sources.

How this all unfolds will be more dependent on the human response to the situation than the dynamics of our energy supply. There can be no question as to the conclusion of that supply. The question will be as to whether self interests prevail over societal interests. As a coherent, operating society we may be able to continue functioning at some more primitive level. On an individual dog eat dog level we could revert to the “Road”.

Fortunately, humans have an instinct to form social units that assistance in the survival of the individual. Without it we would not have survived the last million years. However, this is the first time that we have had to face a population pressure of 7.2 billion, with a highly degraded environment. Instincts can break down under high enough stress conditions. If you are planning on “getting out of Dodge” make sure to take everything that you will need with you for the foreseeable future. You won’t be coming back!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

apneaman on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 11:09 am 



Get out of Dodge and escape to Canada? Out of the frying pan into the fire. We are well on our way to the worst fire season ever. Hell of a lot of carbon in Canadian forests that is coming out – feedback loop.
……………………………………

Heavy smoke due to wildfires force evacuations

“According to government officials, the number of wildfires in Saskatchewan have almost doubled to 330 since last year due to the drier weather.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/heavy-smoke-due-to-wildfires-force-evacuations-1.3104701

marmico on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 11:19 am 



84% of all the petroleum that will ever be extracted has already been removed

Bullshit.

HARM on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 11:40 am 



Estimates of “proven” conventional reserves vary a lot (especially thanks to OPEC’s notorious secrecy and numbers fudging), but most source in the U.S. put it somewhere between 1.3 and 1.6 Trillion barrels. If we’ve already burned through roughly 1.1 Trillion barrels from start of industrial revolution to now, then we’re not at 50% yet, much less 85%.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/fossil-fuels/the-age-of-hardtoget-oil

Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 12:49 pm 



marmico — How you could be exposed to all the posts and discussion on this forum and still remain ignorant enough to make your “Bullshit” comment is pretty good evidence that you’re one of those who are in total denial.

From one of your go-to sources — by a writer who is still in la-la land as can be discerned by reading this article, but he does get the main idea right, and this end of the age of oil message is going mainstream because it is UNDENIABLE, except for non-thinkers and full time denial trolls like marmico:

The beginning of the end for the oil age

“With the collapse in the price of oil and oil stocks, many investors today are looking toward oil stocks for great value opportunities. Most of them are likely to fall into value traps in the short-term. In the long-term, the opportunities might not be as clear cut as in the past. The age of oil has now begun to end, and that means at least more volatility, so be aware and beware, the world is changing in a massive way.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-oil-age-2015-06-10?siteid=yhoof2

Davy on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 1:41 pm 



Captain Marm, bullpiss on your bullshit you toothless troll. Short’s ETP rules and the only response you have is bullshit. What a pussy. At least give us a Freddy fluffer showing us how much oil the corns think is left.

Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 1:52 pm 



“Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil – and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.”

Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister from 1962 to 1986

marmico on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 3:52 pm 



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1344832/Sheikh-Yamani-predicts-price-crash-as-age-of-oil-ends.html

Yamani, June 25, 2000.

Automobile fuel-cell technology and oil prices didn’t turn out like Yamani predicted 15 years ago. It won’t take that long to demonstrate that the quart shy of oil is a prognosticating buffoon.

GregT on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 4:33 pm 



“He predicts that a combination of recent oil discoveries, the advance of new technology, and heavy investment in exploration and production will all lead to a collapse in the price of crude. He says: “I have no illusion – I am positive there will be some time in the future a crash in the price of oil.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1344832/Sheikh-Yamani-predicts-price-crash-as-age-of-oil-ends.html

GregT on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 4:35 pm 



Looks like Yamani’s above prediction came true Marmico.

GregT on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 4:40 pm 



You should really try to stop digging up articles that counter your claims Marmico. Or at least read them before you post.

Apneaman on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 4:57 pm 



Poor little Nony marm, has nothing to point to except some “prediction” some one gave to a reporter 15 years ago. Reporters ask every industry person every sports person and every politician they talk to for predictions – big fucking deal. Everyone is still waiting to hear your logic argument of how a wrong prediction proves or disproves anything. I think provides the same level of proof as your other tired trick of hauling out google analytical stats to imply that the truth is a popularity contest. If your going to google something why not try “logical fallacies”.

Your failed prediction arguments fall under the Argumentum ad hominem catagory and you always make it too obvious by ending with an insult like “prognosticating buffoon”.

Constantly posting google stats as proof of truth, such as how popular a site or topic is or isn’t, is nothing more than Argumentum ad populum. Meaningless.

You’re an amateur.

Apneaman on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 5:10 pm 



The Troll’s Guide to Internet Disruption

Sound like anyone around here?

Sidetrack opponents with name calling and ridicule … Associate opponents with unpopular titles such as “kooks”, “right-wing”, “liberal”, “left-wing”, “terrorists”, “conspiracy buffs”, “radicals”, “militia”, “racists”, “religious fanatics”, “sexual deviates”, and so forth. This makes others shrink from support out of fear of gaining the same label, and you avoid dealing with issues.

(The person trying to smear reputation may not be a random knucklehead … he may, in fact, be a government agent, or a member of the group he’s smearing.)

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/trolls-guide-internet-disruption.html

GregT on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 5:23 pm 



I found #7 to be especially appropriate Apnea:

7. Use an army of sock puppets.

Davy on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 5:40 pm 



Well folks I pretty much am a asshole buster. Remember ghost busters and the fun they had. Those of you who are respectable either side of the topic get my respect. Assholes get busted. Since I have no pride loss if you are an asshole call me what you like it will just embolden me.

Apneaman on Wed, 10th Jun 2015 5:59 pm 



Desperate apes

A Battle Brewing in the North
Drilling and Nuclear Power in the Arctic

“Not only that, but astonishingly, Russia is doubling down on its risky energy play with grandiose plans to power Arctic drill rigs with floating nuclear reactors. Indeed, the oil thirsty Russians plan to mass-produce floating nuclear reactors once their original model proves itself. Imagine that, an Arctic Sea filled with floating nuclear reactors used to power oil exploration drill rigs. Well now, what to say, other than speechlessness is always an antidote to shock and awe!”

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/06/10/drilling-nuclear-power-in-the-arctic/