Peak Oil is You
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Page added on June 8, 2015
There Must Not Be Peak Oil
In this post, I explain the logic of wishful thinking and plain denial that rules on the Earth in most matters that matter (population growth, power – energy per unit time – supply, water supply, food supply, progressing destruction of planetary ecosystems, and so on).
I imply throughout that without an ample and continuous supply of power as liquid fuels, chemical feedstock and electricity, the social activities we take for granted are impossible.
I start from formulating a grand postulate that is self-evident, based on the finite volume of the Earth’s lithosphere and the law of mass conservation:
(The Grand Postulate) If all hydrocarbon resources in the first 10 km below sea level of the Earth’s lithosphere are finite (= A) then
there is a peak rate of hydrocarbon production (= B) [as these resources are gradually depleted]: A implies B or A -> B
This Grand Postulate is logically equivalent to its contrapositive: if not A then not B: (not A = ~A) -> ~B:
If all hydrocarbon resources are infinite (= ~A), then there is no peak production rate (= ~B).
The following two statements are always true:
If all hydrocarbon resources are infinite (= ~A) then
there is (=B) or there is not a peak hydrocarbon production rate (=~B)
But we wish that this statement were true, because we don’t like or fear B:
Even if all hydrocarbon resources are finite (= A) then
there is not a peak hydrocarbon production rate (=~B): A -> ~B
In view of the law of mass conservation (The Grand Postulate) this statement seems false to a few people who understand science, so we have to find additional “evidence” for the validity of ~B. The best strategy is to find a new shiny ~A.
Here is where shale oil/gas and/or Arctic oil/gas and/or new technology or anything else come to help.
Let’s try to “prove” ~B with shale oil and gas, and technology:
(The Grand Not Postulate) Since we know that there is a practically infinite amount of hydrocarbons in shales and a new technology of recovering hydrocarbons from these shales exists in the U.S. (= a substitute ~A) then
there is not a peak hydrocarbon production rate ( = ~B) Q.E.D.
As you can see, I have diverted your attention from the real problem (the finite Earth and low production rates (power) from shales) by postulating something that is evidently false as true. Then I followed with what you really wanted to hear: There is no problem. So you happily glossed over the patent untruth of my argument. This is how most media and political proclamations work.
In the U.S., it is now commonly understood that the Grand Postulate is false, because of so many “false” predictions of peak production rates, at least on the scale of few months or years.
You understand, I hope, that I simply wished away the problem, and used you as dupes to justify my false conclusion.
Now, if you believe my lies, you are essentially crazy, because you see things that do no exist and non-crazy people cannot see. So the following questions arise:
- What are people in the U.S. to do when they have been convinced that the silly statements of peak oil [and gas] power production are false?
After a few months of lower oil prices, they are buying again the same old monster trucks and SUVs, and they are driving again a record number of miles. The U.S. is also setting out to export more natural gas. Call it a complete relapse of an old drug habit.
- What are the now convinced Americans to do when the price of gasoline relative to their (almost uniformly) declining incomes becomes too high?
They will be very angry and blame others for misleading them. Heads will be rolling. The absolute prices of gasoline and heating oil do not have to become much higher in magnitude. It is sufficient that the real incomes fall just enough to prevent people from simultaneously eating, paying bills, and driving to work and to acquire necessities. In the U.S., most people must drive to subsist.
- What are [the American] politicians to do when they too have been convinced that the silly statements of peak oil/gas power production are false?
The politicians strongly oppose the giant effort of building an altogether new national infrastructure of small but complete towns, surrounded by their own agriculture/ranches, and possessing a decentralized, partial generation of electricity from wind and photovoltaics, as well as heat from passive solar heaters and geothermal heaters/coolers. These cities must also have sufficient water supplies from rain catchment, rivers, and groundwater. These cities must be connected with a sparse network of electrical train rail lines. Almost all trains are not very fast, because there is little need to go long distances, except for transporting [ever fewer] goods. There will be plenty of electricity left in the existing base power generation system to propel these trains.
The new houses/apartment complexes are not built in the woods, where they will almost certainly burn and will never be replaced, or on high quality agricultural soil. Today, almost 2 out of 3 new houses in the U.S. are built in places with high fire danger and/or insufficient water supply.
The new housing units are not built on or near the beaches, where they will be swallowed by the swelling seas or destroyed by hurricanes. (Oh, that pesky non-existent climate change!) They are not built in the flood planes of rivers and streams, where they will be destroyed and there will be no money to rebuild them.
I definitely see a new post entitled: “There must not be climate change.” Yes, climate change is so very inconvenient and scary. We must wish it away.
Unfortunately, the problem of peak production rates of anything has been wished away in the U.S. and so many other countries that grow in population much faster than the U.S. I will not bore you anymore, because I have written, spoken, and published on this subject for many, many years; to little or no avail it turns out.
P.S. Fresh from my friend, Art Berman: The Grand Not Postulate has also been published by my favorite Wall Street Journal, albeit in more poetic language: “Now Hubbert’s Curve has been trumped by Moore’s Law. There will be no limits to growth in the global economy in a few years when, thanks to American ingenuity and entrepreneurship unleashed upon shale formations world-wide, oil—like transistors—becomes, for all practical purposes, free. And the lower oil prices go, the more money the frackers can make.”
To verify your sanity, you really need to read Chapter 2 in the “Philosophy of Deception” or “On Truth” by Harry Frankfurt.
For the record, I regard the Wall Street Journal as a newer, gentler, and smaller-circulation version of the old tried Völkischer Beobachter or Pravda.
P.S.P.S. 6/8/2015. If you want to be confused by reality, please verify that the global production of conventional crude oil and lease condensate has remained essentially flat for the last 11 years, as depicted by the the blue area in the magnified Figure 1 in “A New Peak in Conventional Crude Oil Production.” Even at $140 per barrel of oil, the cold facts do not support the no limits to growth of oil production paradigm.
26 Comments on "There Must Not Be Peak Oil"
penury on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 9:28 am
If the average human understood the meaning of the words “finite” and could do the math I am afraid hat “Peak” everything would really be “scary”
Perk Earl on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 10:09 am
Unfortunately penury, they are emotional so everything is based on how it feels, and it feels to them based on past feelings like there will always be more, so they project it will all keep feeling better.
Once their in the throes of feeling bad because things are getting worse (diminishing returns from declining net energy feedbacks on the economy, which many are already experiencing), they will attempt to discharge those feelings by laying blame and getting angry (another feeling). That may lead to war. When they die it will be the ultimate emotional experience but the last for those individuals.
Plantagenet on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 11:05 am
Of course there will be peak oil. The question is when. The prior predictions of peak oil occurring in 2000 or 2005 or 2008 have proven to be wrong….and instead of peak oil the current problem is dealing with a global oil glut.
GregT on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 11:34 am
The current problems planter, are dealing with the global financial crisis brought on by the peaking of conventional oil production, and what we are going to do to avert a catastrophic runaway greenhouse event from burning known remaining fossil fuel reserves. The recent pull back to lower high oil prices, does not address either of these problems.
marmico on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 1:09 pm
Against Odds, Conventional Crude Oil Production Reaches New High
GregT on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 1:55 pm
From the report that marmico linked above:
Thank-you marmico, sums our predicament up quite well. Of course what the report doesn’t touch on are the implications of not running out of cheap oil. IE: Global mass extinction. But who cares about that minor little detail. Right marmico?
***Concluding Comments***
A part of the Peak Oil story unfolded in the period 2002 to 2008 when the world ran short of easy to find and produce conventional cheap crude oil. This sent the price up to over $100 / barrel. The prolonged spell of high price has resulted in a greater number of men and machines and larger amounts of energy being expended on the quest for these highly prized C-H bonds.
There are a number of variables that need to be factored into future analysis and forecasts of global oil production. Amongst these are 1) time lags between price signal and new production, 2) tolerance of global society to higher energy prices, 3) technology developments, 4) political interference (that may be positive or negative) and 5) last but not least reserves depletion.
rockman on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 2:06 pm
“…and a new technology of recovering hydrocarbons from these shales exists in the U.S.” And once more the effort to mislead the public. Though it has been tweaked a bit in the last few years the tech used recently in the shales is identical to what was available many years before the boom. What was lacking was a high enough price of oil to justify utilizing frac’ng on the shales.
“…against the odds… Against what odds? Despite short term slips the global production of oil has been on a continual increase for more than 20 years. How much longer? Who knows. But all it would have taken to predict the current global production rate would be to lay a straight edge on the curve of the previous 2 decades.
draffen on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 2:27 pm
I don’t like the current built environment in most of the US and look forward to seeing it gone. Towns are too spread out and require use of an auto to get to shops, schools, work, etc. Most towns do not have vegetable farms near their boundaries. Instead there are the four or five mono crops taking up thousands of acres and cattle and pig farms.
In today’s arrangement, if you ever attempt to walk or bike to any meaningful destinations you get ran over. A dense, multi-use development with shops below and apartments above dotted with green spaces for social and recreational activities is needed. These towns should have a sharp boundary going from urban to sustainable permaculture farms. Each town should have its own basket of power sources, mostly sustainable, supplying the localized electric grid that also powers a light rail system. Ditto for a water/sewage system.
However, I doubt it ever comes. It is way too liberal an idea and does not have the capacity to line politicians pocket’s like the current living arrangement does (until it doesn’t).
Plantagenet on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 2:30 pm
greg
Your claim that the lack of easy to find oil has sent the price of oil over $100 is out of date.
The situation has changed. We’re in an oil glut now—oil prices have fallen by 40-50%.
Get it now?
GregT on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 2:35 pm
Not my claim planter, although it should be blatantly obvious to anybody with an IQ over about 70.
Read the report.
Plantagenet on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 3:07 pm
I don’t have to “read the report” to know we’re in an oil glut greger. Its you and a few others here who lack the intellectual firepower to understand how the oil market has changed over the last six months.
GregT on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 3:25 pm
Seeing as you are the master of “intellectual firepower” planter, could you please explain to everyone why our economies have still not recovered from the global financial crisis that began when oil prices reached $147/bbl?
Dredd on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 4:41 pm
There is no getting around it (You Are Here).
Plantagenet on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 5:09 pm
@grgr
Your lack of intellectual firepower is self-evident. You believe in nonsensical things, you ignore clear evidence to the contrary and you boast about catching and eating squirrels.
Strike three — you’re out.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 5:13 pm
The intellectual dimwit and nonsensical troll lacks all credibility in determining who and who does not lack intellectual firepower. Distort, mock, throw mud, insult, incite petty squabbles — that’s what the running skeleton does every day on this forum.
BobInget on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 6:12 pm
In certain parts of the world we have already reached ‘peak intelligence’
Malaysian officials are blaming a group of naked tourists for a deadly earthquake that rocked the country’s tallest mountain Friday.
At least 16 people died when a magnitude-5.9 earthquake hit Mount Kinabalu in eastern Sabah state on Borneo island, The Associated Press reports.
Malaysian officials said a group of 10 European and North American tourists who photographed themselves naked on the mountain caused the quake by provoking the anger of the mountain’s spirits. Mount Kinabalu is considered a sacred site by the local indigenous people who believe spirits of the dead live in the mountain. Locals reportedly hold an annual sacrificial ritual to appease the spirits and ask the spirits to keep climbers safe, the Malay Mail reports.
Malaysia’s State Tourism, Culture and Environment Minister Datuk Masidi Manjun told the Agence France-Presse the foreigners’ actions were “totally abhorrent and totally unacceptable to be done on a sacred mountain.”
So far, five tourists have been barred from leaving the country pending “gross indecency” charges, the AP reports. (30)
In Saudi Arabia, a blogger was sentenced to ten years in prison, majorly big fine, and 1000 lashes.
His crime? running a religions comparisons web site.
Saudi Arabia is currently attempting to wipe out an entire tribe, (genocide) They feel not the slightest bit of guilt. Administrations acting is such a manner, refuse to understand their time on earth is limited.
apneaman on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 7:10 pm
And in Texas they had a long drought so The governor and crew prayed for rain, it took quite some time, but when the rains finally came (last week) it was too much, so it’s the liberals and homosexuals fault. Mysterious ways.
BobInget on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 7:27 pm
Saudi Pushback
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9547142/why-saudi-arabia-is-kicking-back-against-the-usa/
Though it has endured for decades, the US-Saudi alliance has become hopelessly out of date: it’s no secret that the alliance has become strained in recent years. On one side there’s a dominant western power at war with jihadists everywhere from Iraq and Syria to Yemen and Pakistan; on the other, an absolute monarchy that practises beheading, treats women as property and has done more than any other country to promote the intolerant form of Islam that inspires those extremists. Meanwhile, as North Dakota turns America into an oil power, Saudi crude has lost its overwhelming importance in the West Wing.
BobInget on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 7:36 pm
One educated guess. The American CIA must know which Saudis are behind IS …
Since all ME wars are really about oil, who wants to give odds the CIA knows exactly how Saudi or Iraqi or Iranian oil fields are dong?
CIA input, influential on energy policy? Yes or No?
Aire on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 9:26 pm
The Planters and Nonnies of the world appear to be unable to see the true cost of the oil available today. This also goes for simple things that are byproducts of oil such as toilet paper. The Oil Age is merely being propped up by the central banking system creating more money and in turn more debt. The true cost of anything is way out of whack to know what it really should be hence you get the more and more crazy financial volatility we’ve been seeing in recent years. The overall increase in cost of production in all forms should be apparent that any “glut” is a facade. But oh well, according to Plant, who cares just enjoy the short joy well it lasts and more importantly keep trollin’
Hubbert on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 9:34 pm
Real problem isn’t that we’re running out of oil. We are running out of everything.
apneaman on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 9:34 pm
Aire, the true cost toilet paper is starting to show too on close inspection. Peak Asswipe OMFG
………………………………………….
You’re going to have to spare more than a square: Toilet paper is shrinking
“Toilet paper squares, the individual sheets that connect to make each roll, were once 4.5 inches wide and 4.5 inches long. That standard, however, has shifted, or at the very least loosened its grip on the industry, to a point where companies are selling sheets that are a half-inch shorter or thinner, or both.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/26/youre-going-to-have-to-spare-more-than-a-square-toilet-paper-is-shrinking/
GregT on Mon, 8th Jun 2015 10:26 pm
Aire,
You can’t really lump the planters and the Nonys together, even though they appear the same on the outside. There is a big difference between the inability to comprehend the situation, and denial of the situation. The Nonys actually have the capacity to understand, but they don’t want to.
SolarDave on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 2:01 am
http://www.los-gatos.ca.us/davidbu/Adam_Smith_Brand_TP.jpg
The hand may be invisible, but you will know when it’s in the room.
Revi on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 7:14 am
The price of oil may stay down, but that’s not going to change the fact that peak oil is here (according to Patterson) We are at the point now or soon when the total amount of petroleum in liquid form is going to start dwindling. That’s going to create problems. Growth is over, if oil has peaked.
apneaman on Tue, 9th Jun 2015 2:52 pm
Peak Oil Primer
“Contrary to popular opinion we do not live in the Information Age. What we live in is the Oil Age. Look around you and you’ll have a virtually impossible task of trying to find something that isn’t tied back to oil – be it hip replacement surgery, the little pieces of plastic wrapped around the ends of your shoelaces, or the vast infrastructure that makes the so-called “Information Age” possible.”
http://fromfilmerstofarmers.com/peakoilprimer/