“Population growth will kill you stone cold dead.” That was the alarming message delivered by Paul R. Ehrlich, who warned in his 1968 book The Population Bomb that the explosive population growth was outpacing our planet’s ability to support mankind.
Booming population growth, in his eyes, would lead to 65 million people dying in the US because of hunger and England would disappear by 2000. There would be “an utter breakdown of the capacity of the planet to support humanity,” he wrote.
That didn’t happen—just look at England! Still, nearly a half century later, Ehrlich told the New York Times in a new video that he still stands by those statements:
The end is still nigh, he asserted, and he stood unflinchingly by his 1960s insistence that population control was required, preferably through voluntary methods. But if need be, he said, he would endorse “various forms of coercion” like eliminating “tax benefits for having additional children.” Allowing women to have as many babies as they wanted, he said, is akin to letting everyone “throw as much of their garbage into their neighbor’s backyard as they want.”
Not so fast, buddy. As the short documentary explains, the world can feed itself with “high-yielding, disease resistant crops” despite rising populations. Also, the women’s need to breed isn’t as necessary as it once was because in many societies, they are “ever more independent, socially and economically.”
With that, and the growing concern of climate change in the forefront of the world’s threat index, the population bomb was a bust, even though it wasn’t one Ehrlich expected.
Makati1 on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 7:39 pm
“REPENT! THE END IS NEAR!
And in 2015, the population is 7 billion and growing. Not to say that the end result of that growth may be as he predicted, just decades farther down the road than he expected. Barring world war, the world is able to adjust diets so that even more people can live a reasonably normal life on what we can produce without petro farms.
If the money/energy/resources spent to create chaos in much of the world was spent on teaching permaculture, and aiding it’s spread, the world would be a much better place. But that is a topic for another day.
Speculawyer on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 7:45 pm
Yeah, we have been able to grow the population and feed (most) people.
However, all we have done is create a bigger problem for ourselves. We have been able to grow the population using massive amounts of fossil fuels and fossil aquifers. But those fossil fuels are starting to become more scarce. Those water tables are are dropping. And those fossil fuels are causing climate change.
We should really stop growing the population because the more it grows, the bigger the problem will be as fossil scarcity, water scarcity, and climate change cause problems.
HARM on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 7:54 pm
“..the world can feed itself with “high-yielding, disease resistant crops” despite rising populations.”
Only with massive inputs of phosphorus and FF-based fertilizers and factory farm monocrops. And completely ignoring all the other harmful effect of human activity on the planet –extinction, desertification, ocean trash gyres, dead zones, pollution, AGW, etc. Which is to say that even *current* population (and consumption) levels are not sustainable, much less a world with 10 or 12 billion people.
Oh, but I forgot about that bet between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon –my bad. Clearly trees can grow to the sky and we can keep on breeding exponentially forever. Good grief.
Davy on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 8:08 pm
Asia is a population time bomb as soon as a liquid fuel crisis hits. There is little chance adjustments can be made to save Asia from famine. Once the global economy contracts significantly all those Asian export driven economies will have nowhere to sell their cheap products they use to pay for food and fuel imports. Asia will have a perfect storm of idle and hungry workers in mega cities with little transport to keep the mega cities functioning.
zoidberg on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 8:35 pm
Never let being absolutely wrong(ie picking specific dates and getting it wrong) stop one from insisting he’s right. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day but no one would say its keeping an accurate time. Even if the population collapses in the future he’s STIll JUST AS WRONG.
zoidberg on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 8:37 pm
Also equating babies with garbage makes me want to punch him in the nose. Leave the babies out of it. Life is sacred always but babies especially.
Poordogabone on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 9:42 pm
“If there is a Pulitzer Booby Prize for stupidity, waste no time in awarding it to The New York Times’ Monday feature, The Unrealized Horrors of Population Explosion. The former “newspaper of record” wants us to assume now that the sky’s the limit for human activity on the planet earth. Problemo cancelled. The article and accompanying video was actually prepared by a staff of 23 journalists. Give the Times another award for rounding up so many credentialed idiots for one job.”
– H.J. Kunstler
Kunstler does a good job taking that New York Times article apart on his latest blog.
http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/twenty-three-geniuses/
dashster on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 11:10 pm
The United States was at 0 population growth rates in 1976 and has maintained it, but has continued to increase population anyway via the benefits the elite get from international economic migration.
dashster on Mon, 1st Jun 2015 11:11 pm
“population anyway via the benefits the elite get from international economic migration.”
Should be, but has increase population via international economic migration, due to the benefits the elite get from increased population and worker over-supply.
Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 1:53 am
Interesting… 3 attempts to comment and none accepted, but a notice that it was a double post… I’ll try again…w/o the references.
dashter, you are correct.The 3rd world is pouring into the US in increasing numbers as they still believe that it is the lifeboat of choice. They should get educated by reading about the droughts, floods, debt, riots and coming Nazi style police state.
The US has to be destroyed to allow a one world government by the elite. American freedoms and guns have to be taken away and all must be put on some form of government dole to control the masses. Most stats show that they are succeeding. 49% as of 2011 or is it 96%
Yes, I am one of them, (Social Security only) but I am also not in the US. Like thousands of Americans, I decided to leave the sinking ship and live in a better land, just as my forefathers did some 280 years ago when they left Europe for the colonies. Since it is a personal choice, I do not expect others to agree with my reasoning, but to accept my right to do so.
Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 1:57 am
BTW: You can get the references at these topics if you are interested…
“Survey: 96 percent of Americans have received government benefits” (Wash. post 2012)
“Survey: 96 percent of Americans have received government benefits” (Forbes 2014)
antiwarforever on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 3:22 am
well, it’s maybe a bit harsh to say so, if the predictions of Ehrlich had materialized, we would be better off now because population explosion would have slowed down. So in my book we are in a situation even worse than what Ehrlich foresaw.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 6:06 am
The US is in overpopulation and overconsumption this is true. The US carrying capacity post BAU and a hybrid fossil fuel and complexity economy is likely somewhere near a 1910 level of around 90MIL. I say this because while much of ecosystem has been damaged there is still knowledge, technology, and still many resources left. Many of these resources would come from ecosystem regeneration and recycling. With the likely effects of climate change and further complexity descent this 90MIL will likely halve as all resources for complexity that supports knowledge, technology, and recycling decay. I would give this process a generation to play out. Of course quick and catastrophic collapse could visit all countries. I am mentioning here a long emergency situation over a generation.
Overconsumption is a bigger issue in the US. This overconsumption leaves an economic system exposed to significant collapse because of a complexity and energy intensity that cannot be supported. The US has mega population centers and exposed populations in climatic and arid regions. These areas will struggle with food, water, and shelter from the climate. The entire US system is exposed because of the globalization of all locals leaving them delocalized. Canada is on a similar level and Mexico very exposed because of climate change, carrying capacity breach, and water issues.
The US has its share of problems but these are greatly exaggerated by the anti-Americans here who have an agenda. We know there are many solid American values and assets. The US has some of the best infrastructure in the world. It also has some of the worst. It is a continental size country that has a mixed bag of development and decay. Its political and economic system have been corrupted but there are still plenty of good people in it and it still functions properly to allow a high level of civilization. It is still a BAU economic, political, and military power and remain so but in a steady natural diminishment that comes with a multipolar world.
The US is on decline on many fronts but this is normal with a country that was a dominant cultural, economic, and military power. This decline is actually a good thing. We must collapse now slowly and somewhat orderly. We are going to leap frog places like Asia that are growing in consumption and population instead of beginning the process of collapse. Most Asian countries are very far into ecological failure and population overshoot. Asia will have to drop from 4BIL down to 500MIL likely per a population carrying capacity without fossil fuels to support the mega cities. The countryside has been destroyed by overpopulation and pollution.
Asia has some of the worst governance and the worst potential for war with places like the South China Sea, North Korea, Japan/China tensions, and smaller conflicts in the Philippines. Take a place like the Philippines that is on the bottom of the list of countries environmentally and the top of the list of populations in overshoot. It has a population of a 100MIL in a space of Arizona. Indonesia, Vietnam, and most other south Asia countries are in a similar situation. China and India are off the chart in destruction of their ecosystem and overpopulation per a post fossil fuel world. Here we will see biblical catastrophes.
So I will admit the US is in decline on all fronts but the US is far ahead of Asia in regards to sustainability and the degree of collapse required to support a population. Just compare a 3.5BIL reduction to a 210MIL reduction. Those numbers paint a grim and dangerous picture for both regions but the size of Asia’s overshoot is off the charts. Asia will truly be a hell on earth.
Revi on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 6:56 am
I think everywhere will be hell on earth. As we move into collapse a lot of people will freak out and there will be a lot of people who are not around due to many factors. Best thing is to find a corner and hide.
Perk Earl on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 9:50 am
All this discussion of human population makes me wonder what is the human experience and whether it is worth all the effort? As we speak the big news for most emotional people is Bruce Jenner’s switch to being a woman and all the feigned outpouring of love which is just people responding like lemmings because they have been led to believe that is the correct response.
Meanwhile rainforests are being clear-cut to grow more palm oil, people in China are demanding answers for their lost loved one’s on a boat that sank, as CB’s push as much stimulus as possible to get economies growing while methane begins to spike in the arctic.
Maybe there should be a big time out by the world as a whole philosophically to ask what is it we are doing as a species? Is it to act like junior high students in an emotional rollercoaster of highs and lows? Is it to extract every bit of resource from this planet to increase the world population as much as possible regardless of long term concerns? Do you see where I’m headed with this? I’m trying to figure out what if any overarching goals there may be beyond overwrought emotional outpourings and or raging greed?
ghung on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 9:53 am
The penis is mightier than the pen.
GregT on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 9:53 am
I think that some support their oligarchs, and the systems that those oligarchs have put in place to enslave them, so much so that they can’t see the big picture. It will be ones choice of small locale, and the communities that support them that will be of importance. Not big government, the size of their militaries, or their corporate masters.
GregT on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 10:47 am
” Bruce Jenner’s switch to being a woman and all the feigned outpouring of love which is just people responding like lemmings because they have been led to believe that is the correct response.”
Bruce Jenner Interview With Diane Sawyer- 2,237,602 watches
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxX3t2rzLbg
Meanwhile rainforests are being clear-cut to grow more palm oil, people in China are demanding answers for their lost loved one’s on a boat that sank, as CB’s push as much stimulus as possible to get economies growing while methane begins to spike in the arctic.
News from two days ago from the University of Ottawa on the dire state of the Planet Earth. 3,391 watches
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2ckkxEnWpA
Black is white, up is down, and out is the new in. It’s no wonder that so many people are so confused.
energyskeptic on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 10:59 am
I don’t think even we can see all the ways we depend on oil (coal, natural gas) no matter how hard we try as I tried to show in The Oiliness of Everything: Invisible Oil and Energy Payback Time at energyskeptic. Nor can most people imagine that wind, solar, and so on will not substitute for fossil fuels. On top of this double blindness, pour on magical thinking, science fiction, belief in human ingenuity triumphing over any challenge, and the denial of death and it’s not hard to imagine how hard we’re going to hit the proverbial brick wall. After which, like the “weapons of mass destruction” pundits will be saying that it was impossible to see it coming, and that it won’t be long before cellulosic ethanol, hydrogen, and other fantasies come to the rescue, meanwhile, be patient, don’t panic, which eventually when food shortages begin turn into rioters and looters will be shot. Getting from 320 million people to the 100 million carrying capacity of the United States is not going to be pretty. What I wonder is if society can limp along on tar sands oil once exports stop, given that at best tar sand EROI is 5 – and closer to 3 or less when you count the energy to refine them.
HARM on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 12:21 pm
“Bruce Jenner’s switch to being a woman and all the feigned outpouring of love which is just people responding like lemmings because they have been led to believe that is the correct response.”
Amen to that. I suppose anyone who finds the whole thing to be a colossal distraction (not to mention a medical freakshow) must be an insensitive bigot by today’s standards. For once I am in total agreement with conservatives.
HARM on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 12:28 pm
“Never let being absolutely wrong(ie picking specific dates and getting it wrong) stop one from insisting he’s right. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day but no one would say its keeping an accurate time. Even if the population collapses in the future he’s STIll JUST AS WRONG.”
The population today is virtually double what it was when Ehrlich wrote his book (1968). We are so far into overshoot now that collapse is all but guaranteed. We are already seeing the early warning signs of it –atmospheric carbon levels, melting glaciers, record droughts, mass extinctions, wars all over the Middle East and Africa (ostensibly over religion, but with the underlying root causes of overpopulation and resource scarcity).
Ehrlich timing was wrong, but he is absolutely right about the direction we’re going and the end game.
Apneaman on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 12:30 pm
Overpopulation is, sooner or later, self correcting.
Wright & Brown: The greatest threat of our time — antibiotic resistance
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/wright-brown-the-greatest-threat-of-our-time-antibiotic-resistance
Who knows how many nasties are just waiting to come out of the fast melting permafrost – bugs we have NO resistance to
Melting Permafrost Endangers Greenland and Releases Harmful, Disease-Causing Bacteria
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-bellini/melting-permafrost-endang_b_5876898.html
Dredd on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 12:40 pm
“Too much” is in the common language for a reason.
Like “too little” and “too late.”
Ehrlich had some valid ideas, but because he descended into the folly of setting dates, he is chastened betimes.
His whole she-bang is now rejected by The High-Hopium Priesthood.
That, even though their future is now composed of unobtainium (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States).
zoidberg on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 5:04 pm
Pop growth is slowing globally and we should all be cautious about denying the possibility of novel new technology unlocking new energy sources. Hope is not a weakness.
GregT on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 5:28 pm
Global growth is not slowing quickly enough to avoid climate catastrophe and ecocide. We need to step up the pace if we hope to have only a 50/50 chance of a global mass extinction event. It is estimated that we have 11 more years until the point of no return. Of course many scientists already believe that we’re too late. Adding more human generated energy into the mix is not a good plan at this point. Hope is all we have left. Let’s hope that we choose wisely.
Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 7:26 pm
Davy, Asia is not the hell hole you like to portray it to be. You think too much like an uneducated, untraveled, American sometimes. Not your fault, just conditioning, I guess.
Cultures (something lacking in North America outside of the few native indians left) that have survived for thousands of years, (Asia) have a better chance of adapting to conditions coming down the pike as they are not that far into the Western BAU addiction.
Do you miss a bank account and credit card if you never had one? How about electric? Running water? Our farm neighbors have none of those. The town near our farm has a ‘farmer’s market’ no other food stores. No fast food chains. Connection to the rest of the world is by bus. How much of Asia is like this? Most of it. How much of the US is? Zero.
Sure famine will be possible there. But then, can YOU survive on a bowl of rice and a piece of chicken or fish every day? Most of them can and will. Nothing new to their daily life. Yes cities will empty out, but a few will stay and manage on the open areas and rainwater.
You are already getting a taste of the near future in the current riots and police killings, both ways. Not to mention that cities there are already shutting down to 3rd world levels. How is that better than Asia? Wait until Mexico moves north and the West becomes desert again, along with the new mid-west dust bowl. Be patient.
I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on the topic. ^_^
redpill on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 7:35 pm
zoidberg, just asking, but are you okay with the teaching of family planning and the use of contraception. Just wondering if you’re morally opposed.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 8:24 pm
Poor Makster he can’t fathom his dear Asia and beloved P’s having any danger ahead from the coming descent. Mak reminds me of the BAUtopians and their delusional hopium that all is well. Mak has hopium that all the bad things ahead are for the west not Asia. Asia is set for a golden age and the west destruction. Makster you are suffering from dementia. These things happen to people in their 70’s.
It will be a hell hole in Asia Makster. Asia will be where the first famines start once liquid fuels go into shortage. I understand why you made a stupid decision moving there. You let your hatred and resentment of a failed life in the US get in the way of rational thought. Resentment is a very bad passion to have Makster.