
Start by developing technologies that reduce all the wasted food out there.
The world’s population is expected to increase from 7 billion today to 9 or 10 billion by the end of the century, according to the United Nations. We also can expect more pressure on the food supply as people in the developing world adopt middle class lifestyles, which usually involve eating more meat. To satisfy global demand, we will need to roughly double today’s output, which means getting smarter about how we produce and manage food.
The good news is that innovation is coming to the farm. Advanced information technology, improved communications systems, robotics, drones, and other new technologies have the potential to boost agricultural yields and reduce waste while tempering environmental degradation.
In the past, the world fed a growing population largely by cultivating undeveloped land and increasing agricultural inputs, including fertilizer and water. These are not very good options today. Clearing more land for agriculture now often means destroying rainforests and other valuable natural areas. Adding inputs makes sense in some poorer countries, where fertilizer and other resources are underutilized, but in most parts of the world, this strategy will mean heavier nutrient loads in waterways, depleted water supplies, and higher greenhouse gas emissions. Genetically modified crops have helped to boost production in recent years, but it appears that this strategy too may have limits – certainly political and possibly biological.
If our best chance of escaping a future food crisis is innovation, then an obvious place to look for solutions is food waste. No one knows for certain how much food the world wastes, but it seems that somewhere between 30% to 50% of the food we grow around the world goes uneatened. Waste occurs at almost every point in the chain—from farm to truck to warehouse to grocer to restaurant to household kitchen.
On farms in many parts of the world, food spoils because cold storage and transport are inadequate or non-existent. An obvious answer would be to install refrigeration in more farms, trucks, and warehouses, but this can be very costly. Another more economical approach is to equip farmers with better information and communications tools—smartphones are an obvious choice—so that farmers have information about markets at their fingertips and can better plan their harvests and distribution.
At the other end of the supply chain, retailers often find themselves with food that is bruised or otherwise unattractive but still edible. New IT and communications devices could help to connect this food with people who could use it. A pair of MIT Sloan students recently launched Spoiler Alert, a website, smartphone app and online marketplace that finds good uses for spoiled, expiring, and excess food.
Spoiler Alert and similar approaches enable food banks and other poverty-focused organizations to find out about these products and claim them. And if food truly is unfit for human consumption, it can be directed to places that want it for animal feed, fermentation, or biofuels. This year’s MIT Sustainability Summit, on the theme of Farming, Food, and the Future, focused on these “circular economy” approaches to food system strains.
Another way that innovation helps on the farm is in managing agricultural inputs. For the past dozen years or so, farmers have used tractors equipped with GPS and computers to collect data on how much fertilizer, water, and seeds are delivered where. The next generation of devices and systems includes robots that can move along rows of crops and identify where inputs are needed. Drones can gather similar information through high-resolution thermal and visual imagery.
These and other innovations will make agriculture more precise, which will increase yields and reduce inputs. But like earlier agricultural revolutions, this one too will find its limits. For agriculture to be truly sustainable, we will need to take a hard look at deeply ingrained attitudes and behaviors. For example, might Americans re-think a diet that includes meat twice a day every day? As wondrous as innovations in agriculture may prove to be, there are cultural challenges they will not be able to overcome.

penury on Fri, 1st May 2015 9:55 am
All of the articles stressing HOPE, tech will save us. Wrong, the only thing that would save the humans is the reduction in the numbers of humans.I still think that tech will lead to more instability rather than less. Probably by 2025.
Davy on Fri, 1st May 2015 11:06 am
This is the doom view of the most important adaptation and mitigation effort we can make at home and globally and that is food security. Financial issues, oil issues, water issues, destabilized distribution and continuing growing population will bring food insecurity upon us sooner than later. The article mentions some things that can be done. They are part of what got us to where we are. Even those effort that are helpful cannot scale.
Food productivity is stalling and affordability by society of all commodities are going down IOW the economics of food is going the wrong way along with the financial system and oil supplies. It is inevitable that production agriculture will take a hit along with oil’s affordability issues, financial system issues, and a myriad of other global problems and predicaments. Add to that AGW climate change and I see little hope of food supply growth beyond the short term.
What is needed is a massive back to the land effort both with gardens and permaculture efforts supported by the top and bottom. Will this happen? It is possible in a crisis situation with a still functioning society. We promote oil and gas efforts, AltE, and production agriculture.
We must have a hybrid affair of global production agriculture and permaculture. Subsistence agricultural efforts in the third world must be promoted and the trend of production agricultural growth there stopped in its tracks. Our very survival as a civilized society can only be preserved by mitigation and adaptation to food insecurity. This will not stop food insecurity, hunger, and famines but it will be efforts at mitigation and adaptation. The alternative is a sudden loss from faltering production AG with little alternatives. I have done production AG and I am doing permaculture now. It is obvious what is coming.
Famine and hunger will destabilize a country very quickly. Permaculture, garden efforts and local AG must ramp up as production AG falters and population peaks. I see a quick rebalance scenario soon beginning with consumption and population. This can happen suddenly with our brittle resilience and spent sustainability of our global system. We have been spoiled by food surpluses for so long we can’t even imagine empty grocery stores and food lines (real food line). The third world will likely have mass famines that will not be able to be aided. This is the end game prepare.
tk on Fri, 1st May 2015 11:13 am
Food waste is mainly the product of the “monetary calculation” aka “price system”!
Somebody without money does not exist from the “system” POV. That leads me to a question that EVERYBODY should ask:
Why do I have to pay to exist?
In the past always was the promise of how technology will make our lives easier aka “progress”, instead, we (99% at least) are FORCED to compete against machines, and 1% is laughing its asses off! Reason again: Money!
By now we could paper work completely do per computers, but where do all “paper pushers” then fit in? Reason again: Forced to “earn a living”, wasting tons of trees!
At some point this “money meme” MUST become obvious as the PROBLEM!
NOT money makes the world go round,
energy, resources, machines and people do!
Short history of money:
A psychopath wanted to persuade/manipulate his/her peers to do the ALL the work for him/her!
Fear and violence were the main tools (fear of death)
for psychopaths:
“Work for this amount of clams/stones/gems that I give you and you will be better off”
(rewarded by fill-in-some-god/superstition)!
“If you kill him you will be even better off and get more from me of “that money””
That’s it!
Religions, labor division, cities, states, empires etc all logically follows!
And NOW we must get rid off this “authority” bullshit (religious superstition) and control neurosis (“I must be in charge”)
or we go down in a full nuke exchange!
penury on Fri, 1st May 2015 11:15 am
Davy, I agree with your outlook. However, I am more of a pessimist than you are. Mitigation by permaculture, garden efforts and local AG will be necessary however, I foresee a period of perhaps a hundred years before people really understand the severity of the coming problem and start to learn how to survive all over again.
Davy on Fri, 1st May 2015 11:29 am
Pen, I am trying to be optimistic but it is hard. Anyone on the PO forum that has a more pessimistic post with realism than I has my support. The possibility of extinction is closer than it has ever been since the historic bottleneck 17,000 years ago or so when it is believed population dropped into the thousands. I am burning fields now so I don’t have time to give the exact dates or numbers with a google search but I do remember our genetic research along with geologist believe this to be the case.
GregT on Fri, 1st May 2015 11:46 am
Penury,
From my perspective I would consider your view to be overly optimistic. I see a period of around forty years that began back in the seventies, where people have had the information available to really understand the severity of the problems that we already face today.
People have ignored the warnings, and have continued down an unsustainable path of overshoot that will in all likelihood reach tipping points within the next decade, or two at the most.
Lawfish1964 on Fri, 1st May 2015 12:27 pm
Geez, I had it all wrong. I thought planting seeds by hand, weeding, adding compost and proper irrigation were the way to succeed in my garden. I need to get me some drones and robots!
I agree with Davy and Penury. The solution to the “problem” of how to feed 9 billion people will be made for us by turning us into a population of probably less than 1 billion. The really sad thing is, once farmers quit using petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides, they’ll find their land is completely infertile. Modern “soil” is nothing more than a growing medium for converting petroleum into plant mass. So as it stands now, our best farm land will be the worst farm land in the future.
Energydebt on Fri, 1st May 2015 3:45 pm
People today try to fight the soil depletion with the food production subsidies. The depleting soil needs fertilizers. There is no other way how to avoid it. And the fertilizers produced and transported using fossil fuels are the only solution. No other tech can solve the physical removal of the elements from the soil via food production…
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 3:52 pm
TPTB will do what they have always done to solve food shortages – turn their back on the populous.
The populous will revert to old ways as well.
“Swap child, make food”
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 3:57 pm
Dave Montgomery – Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations
kitty- “He traces the history of agriculture, showing that when humans exhausted the soil in the past, their societies collapsed, or they moved on. But moving on is not an option for future generations, he warns: there isn’t enough land. In the U.S., mechanized agriculture has eroded an alarming amount of agricultural land, and in the developing world, degraded soil is a principal cause of poverty. We are running out of soil, and agriculture will soon be unable to support the world’s growing population.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQACN-XiqHU
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:10 pm
World Water War I: Already Under Way
“The list of countries approaching mortal crisis because of water scarcity goes on, and on. It has to include California, Arizona and Nevada, states whose mummification by dry desert air is proceeding apace.
In the shadow of this real and present danger to the world, politicians and talking heads continue to prattle about religion, ideology, ethnicity, world domination — indeed, any distraction imaginable — apparently to avoid having to confront reality. Despite their best efforts at obfuscation, however, it is clear that reality is about to confront us.”
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2015/05/01/world-water-war-i-already-under-way/
North American Drought Monitor
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/nadm/maps
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:13 pm
Your government will not be there to help you when TSHTF. They are helping speed it along and will be dumbfounded when it hits. Violence and misplaced blame will be all you will see from them. Look out for your own.
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:16 pm
How did the U.S. gov respond to Katrina and Sandy? Imagine large swaths of the country in turmoil. Only in the movies is the government hyper-competent and in control.
JuanP on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:22 pm
I spent several hours today turning the compost pile and cutting down banana trees and chopping them up to use as composting mulch under the mango tree at the community garden. We have six young Ice Cream banana trees that I am giving away because we have too many for the space available, they produce the most delicious bananas I have ever tried that taste just like vanilla ice cream and melt in your mouth. I also planted comfrey last week to use as mulch and green manure.
We know how to fix this problem, but we are too fracked up to do anything about it. Eroding soil should be a crime punishable by death, IMO.
JuanP on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:30 pm
I think Davy was referring to this theory: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
J-Gav on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:42 pm
Tech, schmeck! Food crises will only be avoided by restoring soil quality and applying permaculture/food forest principles – un point c’est tout!
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 5:55 pm
Water helps things grow.
……………………………
California snowpack survey canceled: ‘Drought is severe’
“State water officials had planned to make the trek back to the Sierra Nevada in the coming days to conduct their snowpack measurement Friday.
But Thursday they announced they wouldn’t bother. For the second consecutive month, there won’t be any snow to measure.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-snowpack-count-canceled-drought-20150430-story.html
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 5:59 pm
Possibility of social chaos due to lack of water in SP mobilizes army command
Why the Southeast Military Command (CMSE) are interested in the water shortage crisis in São Paulo?
The answer came in the afternoon of last Tuesday, April 28, during the panel organized by the army, which occurred within his headquarters in Ibirapuera, south of the state capital.
During more than three hours of debate, aimed at officers, soldiers and some university professors and supporters of the military who filled the auditorium of the headquarters of the command in São Paulo, he was outlining the real reason of the high Brazilian generalship be concerned about an issue that apparently It is out military action standards.
The password was given by the director of Sabesp, Paul Massato which side Anicia Pio, the Fiesp (Federation of São Paulo State Industries), and professor of engineering at Unicamp, Antonio Carlos Zuffo, drew a picture of how water crisis is impacting the São Paulo State.
Massato was clear. If the emergency works being made by the company do not give result and if it rains little, São Paulo will be without water from July this year. The scenario described by the head of Sabesp is catastrophic and worthy of a horror movie script.
“It will be terror. Will not have power, will not have electricity … It will be a doomsday scenario. Thousands of people and social chaos can trigger. There will only be a problem of shortage of water. It will be much more serious than that … “emphasizes during his speech to following launch a hope of supplication:” But I hope it does not happen. ”
He points out that the metropolitan region of São Paulo live 20 million people, when the ideal would be four million. Of these, according Massato, three million slum that would have stolen water. “Steal water or take without paying,” he says, eliciting laughter from the audience.
Shield
No criticism, however, was addressed to the governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) by the attendees throughout the event. Only one person was manifested during the speech Massato, saying it lacked state planning. But it was interrupted by a kind of military command that ciceroneava emcee the event, asking him to leave the matter to the questions to be addressed to the panelists. The question did not come back to be displayed.
But the result by the lack of investment and planning of the state government already causes shivers in cervical the state establishment. The Itu scenes can reproduce in exponential scale in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. And it is against this that the Army wants to guard.
The head of Sabesp cited a case that occurred in the Butantã region, west of the capital. According to him, there was a violent reaction because the water did not reach the highest points in the district. “I arrived at the house the ‘chief’, and then he had set fire to three buses. Here the staff is more organized … ”
In his speech, the head of Fiesp, Anícia Pio, stresses that much has been said about the population of the supply crisis, but one can not ignore the impact on the industry of São Paulo. “The crisis was not higher because the economic crisis came (to slow production).”
According to her, the jobs of thousands of people working in the industry is at risk if the worsening water crisis.
If you rely on projections presented by Professor Zuffo, from Unicamp, the situation will be complicated. He said the water shortage cycle can last 20, 30 years.
http://operamundi.uol.com.br/conteudo/samuel/40285/possibilidade+de+caos+social+por+falta+de+agua+em+sp+mobiliza+comando+do+exercito.shtml
justeunperdant on Fri, 1st May 2015 7:19 pm
The government won’t be able to do much. Upraising in the Baltimore is a good example. The local police force did not had enough man power to control the crowd, They had to demand assistance from neighbourhood cities and the state. This is why the Baltimore police decided to not engage the protesters, they were not enough of them to control the crowd. Another thing to notice is that violence is the way nature solves its problem. It seem that the black community as indeed win and there will be a fair trial of the policemen involved in the death of Gray. Violence does indeed solve problems and it is the way the nature has solved problem for ever. The masses have learn through the Baltimore events that violence and disobedience can be used against the elite and the elite and rich are not that powerful. A lot of things to learn and observer during the Baltimore conflicts about human nature. So yes, dont expect help from the local government, they could not control the Baltimore crowd with the local police force, how are they going to provide food.
American Idiot on Fri, 1st May 2015 10:07 pm
We are already in a process of collapse. Unfortunately, American Idiots are too stupid to recognize that.
This period of denial can only last so long. American Politicians are the worst. They just can’t see it.
Apneaman on Sat, 2nd May 2015 1:18 am
Another techno savior bites the dust.
/////////////////////////////////////
Stocks in This Totally Hyped Sector Are Crashing
“3D printing popped on the scene a few years ago, and soon it was everywhere. The media were raving about it. Companies were formed and attracted VC money, and the hype bloomed, and soon IPOs of even the tiniest outfits flew off the shelf in the US and Europe. Valuations soared, and everyone was in heaven. Even The Economist jumped on the bandwagon with its article, “A Third Industrial Revolution.” A new world had begun.
But not everyone was a true believer. Among these unwelcome detractors and party poopers was Terry Gou, founder and president of Foxconn, one of world’s largest electronics manufacturing companies. It makes the iPhone and other gadgets. In June 2013, when the Taiwanese media pushed him on 3D printing, he retorted, “3D printing is a gimmick” with no “real commercial value.”
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/04/30/did-you-see-the-bubble-in-3d-printing-stocks-implode/
GregT on Sat, 2nd May 2015 2:09 am
“We are already in a process of collapse. Unfortunately, American Idiots are too stupid to recognize that.”
Americans make up less than 5% of the world’s population AI. The other 95% are also mostly too stupid to recognize the process of collapse. This is by no means only an American problem. It is a human problem, that knows no racial, political, or national boundaries.
Kenz300 on Sat, 2nd May 2015 8:13 am
Every year the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed to the planet……………
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
JuanP on Sat, 2nd May 2015 8:53 am
AI “this period of denial can only last so long” I envy your optimism. In my experience denial is almost always for life. I have never met someone who lived in denial for decades and then changed their minds. Ignorant people can learn, denialists can’t. Denial is some sort of psychological problem, very much like narcissism, IMO. Have you ever met a narcissist that got cured? I know I haven’t. Once a narcissist, always a narcissist. Once a denialist always a denialist. That is the rule, there are exceptions of course.
Nony on Sat, 2nd May 2015 9:14 am
Denial is looking at the top chart here and saying that things worked out how Campbell, Ace, and Deffeyes predicted in 2005.
http://peakoil.com/production/world-oil-yearly-production-charts
They predicted a 2005-2008 peak and then a couple percent drop per year, afterwards. So, so far from that happening.