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Page added on April 19, 2015
Saudi intervention in Yemen ‘a bad idea’
John McCain, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has accused the Obama administration of going soft on Iran’s regional ambitions in pursuit of what he sees as a bad nuclear agreement with Tehran, and has praised “our Arab partners” for intervening in Yemen. “The prospect of radical groups like Iranian-backed Houthi militants” was “more than [U.S. Arab allies] could withstand,” he said. But a large contingent of senior U.S. military officers believes the Saudi-led military operation will fail, and possibly turn into a quagmire.
The fact that the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen was planned and launched independently of the U.S. was, in McCain’s eyes, a rebuke of the administration’s policies. “These countries, led by Saudi Arabia, did not notify us nor seek our coordination or our assistance in this effort,” he said during a March 26 committee hearing, “because they believe we are siding with Iran.”
A senior commander at Central Command (CENTCOM), speaking on condition of anonymity, scoffed at that argument. “The reason the Saudis didn’t inform us of their plans,” he said, “is because they knew we would have told them exactly what we think — that it was a bad idea.”
Military sources said that a number of regional special forces officers and officers at U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) argued strenuously against supporting the Saudi-led intervention because the target of the intervention, the Shia Houthi movement — which has taken over much of Yemen and which Riyadh accuses of being a proxy for Tehran — has been an effective counter to Al-Qaeda.
Michael Horton, a Yemen expert close to a number of officers at SOCOM and a consultant to the U.S. and U.K. governments, picked up on this debate. Within days of the Saudi intervention’s start, he said in an email that he was “confounded” by the intervention, noting that many in SOCOM “favor the Houthis, as they have been successful in rolling back AQ [Al-Qaeda] and now IS [the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL] from a number of Yemeni governorates” — something that hundreds of U.S. drone strikes and large numbers of advisers to Yemen’s military had failed to accomplish.
Later, in a telephone interview, Horton expanded on that. “These constant reports that the Houthis are working for the Iranians are nonsense, but the view is right out of the neocon playbook,” he said. “The Israelis have been touting this line that we lost Yemen to Iran. That’s absurd. The Houthis don’t need Iranian weapons. They have plenty of their own. And they don’t require military training. They’ve been fighting Al-Qaeda since at least 2012, and they’ve been winning. Why are we fighting a movement that’s fighting Al-Qaeda?”
Michael Horton
Yemen expert
One reason for U.S. support may be the diplomatic logic of tamping down Riyadh’s opposition to a nuclear deal with Iran by backing an aggressive Saudi-led response to what a number of U.S. allies in the region portray as rapidly expanding Iranian influence in Arab countries. But another is the view among some U.S. military commanders that countering Iran takes strategic priority over combating Al-Qaeda and ISIL.
Iran was long the central focus of former CENTCOM Commander Gen. James Mattis, who in 2011 requested that Obama order the deployment of a third U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the Gulf to pressure Iran. The White House turned down the request. Before his retirement, Mattis reportedly told an audience that the U.S. faced three threats in the region: “Iran, Iran, Iran.”
But others argue for balancing U.S. concerns about various threats. And a number of CENTCOM and SOCOM officers believe the Saudis are in over their heads in trying to reverse Houthi gains in Yemen through military intervention.
“We had a great opportunity to engage with the Houthis on this, but we gave in to the Saudis,” Horton said, “and frankly, they cannot begin to manage this. They have all the toys but few people who know how to effectively use them. Their NCO and officer corps are largely untested, and their enlisted men are drawn from the lowest rungs of Saudi society. If they get bogged down in Yemen, I wonder about the loyalty of many of the soldiers and NCOs. The Egyptians will not fare much better.”
But that’s not the view of McCain and other hawkish senators around him. They see Iran’s fingerprints all over whatever goes wrong in the region — a view that alarms Horton. “This is a guy who complained that we were Iran’s air force in Iraq,” he said. “Well, guess what? Now we’re Al-Qaeda’s air force in Yemen.”
14 Comments on "Saudi intervention in Yemen ‘a bad idea’"
Rodster on Sun, 19th Apr 2015 3:15 pm
Let’s just keep spreading more chaos and violence around the world to protect the almighty petrodollar. That’s what all imperialistic empires love to do.
“They hate us for our freedoms” – G.W. Bush
/sarc
apneaman on Sun, 19th Apr 2015 3:21 pm
Bend a Knee and Live
“Since 1950 the USA has attacked more than 50 countries. It has bombed 30. It has made more than 50 assassination attempts and succeeded in more than 20 regime changes. The behavioral metaprogram: Be afraid. Be very afraid. Be grateful we have brave men and women in uniform to protect us.”
http://peaksurfer.blogspot.ca/2015/04/bend-knee-and-live.html
Plantagenet on Sun, 19th Apr 2015 4:17 pm
If a large component of US military leadership believes that the Saudi intervention into Yemen is a bad idea, then why is the Obama administration providing arms and backing the saudi incursion into Yemen?
Sounds like Obama is ignoring the strategic advice he is getting and cowboying off on his own again, as per usual.
BobInget on Sun, 19th Apr 2015 5:25 pm
Apneaman gets it with his Thrones comment.
In fact, Saudi Arabia is a 21st century absolute monarchy. ‘Why is that even still a thing?’
I contend that not only will this ill advised Saudi
air war fail but the (intended?) consequence of al Qaeda winning in Yemen, gaining a foothold base into KSA itself, is a real possibility.
Chew on this. al Qaeda gains upper hand in Saudi Arabia and controls world oil prices.
(of course, that’s not going to happen, US troops will intervene first, at great expense).
Iran, Russia have the ability to stop the genocide at any time. (turn off Saudi oil)
However, it will be months more before world
approbation builds against KSA, and other ‘coalition members’ enabling Russia to make ‘the humanitarian’ gesture of destroying Saudi ability to slaughter.
At that point, Saudi Royals flee to France, never to return. Chaos leaves the Saudi
government open for IS or AQ take over.
Then and only then, real life ‘Game of Thrones’ begins.
rollin on Sun, 19th Apr 2015 7:13 pm
Why do Republicans think we will believe all their hokum that Obama is wrong about everything. To continue this political rebellion in Congress is to weaken US ability to function.
Wait until a woman becomes president, she will straighten them out or send them packing.
KSA is supporting a nearby nation and protecting it’s interests. What’s the problem?
Makati1 on Sun, 19th Apr 2015 8:06 pm
rollin, the UFSA has no functioning government. It has a Fascist Oligarchy government. There is ‘voting’ in name only with no real effect on anything important, just a change of elate owned ‘dictators’ using the same game plan.
Fascism:
“The only official definition of Fascism comes from Benito Mussolini, the founder of fascism, in which he outlines three principles of a fascist philosophy.
1.”Everything in the state”. The Government is supreme and the country is all-encompasing, and all within it must conform to the ruling body, often a dictator.
2.”Nothing outside the state”. The country must grow and the implied goal of any fascist nation is to rule the world, and have every human submit to the government.
3.”Nothing against the state”. Any type of questioning the government is not to be tolerated. If you do not see things our way, you are wrong. If you do not agree with the government, you cannot be allowed to live and taint the minds of the rest of the good citizens.
The use of militarism was implied only as a means to accomplish one of the three above principles, mainly to keep the people and rest of the world in line. Fascist countries are known for their harmony and lack of internal strife. There are no conflicting parties or elections in fascist countries.”
Oligarchy: : “a country, business, etc., that is controlled by a small group of people.”
The Us is a country ruled by a small group who have imperial ambitions and a leader who does what he/she wants.
Dictator: a ruler who is unconstrained by law. (Executive Orders anyone?)
And the beat goes on…
Kenz300 on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 6:18 am
It is time for the countries of the Middle East to solve the problems of the Middle East.
What did all the lives and money we spent on training and support of Iraq troops accomplish?
Mark Ziegler on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 7:28 am
And we thank the input of Dr. Strangelove.
viewcrafters
paulo1 on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 8:16 am
Think KSA will be around in its present form in 5 years? I think it is extremely vulnerable. My first question is will Iran get bombed and when? What excuse will be used?
Look how well Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya is working out? Look how the ‘regime change’ in Syria is doing? Yemen? One more domino falling off the table without any oil left or even enough water. ‘They’ are bombing the shit of of anything left.
Those poor people.
BobInget on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 10:01 am
Because of lack food and water….
No Yemen land invasion of any great force is feasible. Small, self sustaining guerrilla forces
can move about with little notice. Following
the Syrian model fighting will drag on for months with non combatants sustaining more
deaths then both ‘sides’ combined.
Today, Saudi air-forces destroyed a mobil missile site that was preparing counter attacks.
Watch for more pleas of humanitarian cease fires. Saudis, anxious ‘to get this over-with soon, will reject those efforts.
I see Yemen civil war going to an international,
Syrian, proxy model. Same players, Saudi Arabia and the US vs. Iran and Russia .
The only possible ‘winners’ in Yemen will be al Qaeda and IS, neither of which are being targeted by KSA or USA.
joe on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 11:10 am
So far it’s been an air assault nothing more. Painful, frustrating but not likely to end the campaign. The issue with modern war is that even with boots on the ground it’s not hard for soldiers to change clothes change flags and carry on the war. Isis is more or less the old baathist regime mixed with Al qaeda and some western muslim idealists. This group is proving very tough, not because it’s got resources, but because it’s got what it needs. A committed and trained leadership from the exbaathists, Intel support from local groups and weapons supply from all over the middle east. Yemen could be cut off from the world. This will be where US support will be most vital, to stop the world from caring what’s going to happen to these people when the Egyptians, Pakistan etc surround them and starve them, then the Saudis will unleash their al qaeda friends.
Newfie on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 1:55 pm
Failed states popping up like mushrooms in a cow pasture. Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen. Who’s next ?
Speculawyer on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 4:52 pm
Who gives a crap what McCain think? The guy has never seen a war he didn’t want to get involved in.
Davy on Mon, 20th Apr 2015 6:22 pm
I would rank McCain along with the Witch (Hillary) as two dangerous people for the world. Crazy, power hungry, and in positions of power are bad combinations for the cause of good.