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Page added on April 14, 2015
World’s population to grow by 1.1 billion
The United Nations has said that the world’s population is expected to grow from 7.3 billion to 8.4 billion between 2015 and 2030 and called for integrating population issues into the post-2015 development agenda.
The information was learned from the 48th session of the UN Commission
on Population and Development that opened with a focus on current and future population trends and their implications for sustainable development, Xinhua News reports Tuesday.
In a message to the commission, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki- moon said the international community is going to forge a set of sustainable development goals and they will be influenced by the ” profound demographic shifts” which take place in current world, especially those related to youth, the elderly urbanization and migration.
According to a thematic report prepared by Ban for the session, all of the 1.1 billion projected growth in global population will occur in urban areas.
All regions, except Europe, are expected to record increases of 15 percent or more in the size of their urban populations.
“Already more than half of the world’s population lives in cities, and that proportion will grow over the next 15 years, adding urgency to efforts to optimize the benefits of urbanization and overcome its challenges,” said Ban.
The report also noted that over the next 15 years, roughly two billion children will reach school age; meanwhile, the share of older persons in the population is projected to increase from 12 percent in 2015 to 16 percent in 2030.
“This requires enhancing education for both girls and boys, ensuring access to reproductive health care and creating more decent jobs,”
he said, adding that “we must forge societies where older persons can contribute to the fullest and enjoy the social protections they deserve.”
During the session, UN member states, UN entities and the civil society will review the change and make recommendations for people-centered development strategies, which will benefit the ongoing negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda.
19 Comments on "World’s population to grow by 1.1 billion"
Rodster on Tue, 14th Apr 2015 7:56 pm
BAU requires more babies to keep the system functioning. It’s exponential growth that’s required by the global money system.
Makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2015 8:07 pm
7,303,227,300 and counting…
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
yellowcanoe on Tue, 14th Apr 2015 8:16 pm
Well they used the term “sustainable development” so I guess everything will work out ok! 🙂
Davy on Tue, 14th Apr 2015 8:54 pm
My forecast is for 400-500MIL more people. That is based upon what I see as the approach of peak oil dynamics coupled with a deteriorating financial situation. This is the ingredients for supply and demand destruction that will be the end of modern man.
A liquid fuel shortage and food insecurity will not allow any more than 500MIL people. In today’s BAU oil equals food equals people. Food not only has the oil component there is also the water and soil component. Soil and water are under stress. The oceans are close to a point of fishery collapse.
Where the hell are we going to find the food and fuel needed for any more people? Systems bifurcate when their stability is pushed beyond a safe range. We are there now IMHO. Our system has had a brittle resilience and sustainability because of growth with growing complexity and growing energy intensity. Limits of growth and diminishing returns are now surfacing everywhere.
These characteristics of our BAU system are brittle because if growth ends so will BAU. Natural systems have a resilience and sustainability because of natural complexity of multiple species. Man’s complexity is based upon dangerous efficiencies of performance not durability. Man’s complexity is human not natural. Our complexity is with one species at the expense of most of the others. We are kidding ourselves with our exceptionalism. Forecasting another 1-2BIL people is just our exceptionalism thinking out loud.
Aire on Tue, 14th Apr 2015 10:56 pm
I would have to agree with Davy and predict peak human population at less than 8 billion. If it surpasses that, it will very likely be short lived but I doubt it could even reach 500 million like Davy predicts. Although, if the 1st world standard of living downgrades significantly while in supply of lots of oil it is possible to get another 1-2 billions but that’s not how the cookie will crumble. I’m almost certain that after a collapse of modern globalization, there will be certain chaos.
Steve Challis on Tue, 14th Apr 2015 11:06 pm
I think that Davy and Aire are approximately correct. I predict that the population will not get significantly above 8 billion people,and may not even reach that figure.
ffkling on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 12:08 am
And NOW (4/15 00:08) the global human population count:
7,308,265,597
Makati1 on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 12:32 am
Aire, I suspect that the 1st world standard of living is going to decline rapidly and that will allow those other billions to exist. After all, the Us uses ~25% of the world’s resources and is less than 5% of it’s population.
http://edition.cnn.com/US/9910/12/population.cosumption/
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/810
A more equal distribution of resources would easily allow a few billion more of us on this planet, and only the West (1 billion) would suffer.
Perk Earl on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 12:58 am
I think world population will continue to increase until reduced available resources resists increasing numbers. In other words there’s no brain power going on here, just forced feedback.
Even if BAU reduces due to a descent from peak oil, people will still procreate. In fact, the poorest countries have the highest reproduction rates. It’s only in highly developed countries that population levels off. It’s tied to education and material prosperity. Just look at the Mexicans in California. They have the lowest education level but the biggest families. Familia! I saw this Mexican family in Safeway last evening. The Father was engrossed with the baby, while the other 6 kids quietly played in the aisle. They didn’t look wealthy but there sure were happy.
My fear is our species will turn the land masses into dustbowls due to agricultural overuse and droughts from climate change. The last of us will stand facing an onslaught of dust blowing in our faces, then fall backwards dead from lung failure and starvation. Only then will the population begin to descend from about 10-15 billion.
The planet will begin to grow weeds on the dusty plains and eventually in a few hundred thousand years it will all be back to the way it was before we went to town on it, absent all the species that went extinct.
HARM on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 4:09 am
Peak Earl has it right. Predictions of mass die-offs in the magnitude of hundreds of millions or billions anytime in the near future is highly unlikely. We will almost certainly reach 8.4 billion in the time frame predicted by sheer population growth momentum alone, and go well beyond that.
There is *plenty* of waste and slack in the global food supply chain to feed billions more if we really had to, which is really unfortunate for all the species we’re driving extinct in the process. Remember all those dire predictions from Paul Ehrlich about food riots by the 1990s? How’d that work out? And how about all those mass famines that (didn’t) happen after oil hit $140/barrel?
We may not ever hit 15 billion, but human beings have sure proven amazingly resilient when it comes to strip-mining the planet, screwing each other, and stuffing our faces. We’ll eat bugs, jellyfish and seaweed if we have to, and probably *will* too (because that all that’s left).
Davy on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 6:47 am
Air, I said 400MIL-500MIL increase only based upon peak oil dynamics and the unsustainable economic picture. Add to POD and financial distress the stagnation of food productivity and water stress for further inertia.
Anything is possible at this point but increases in population beyond this point is more unlikely because of systematic decay. Our economy delivers food and liquid fuel which are foundational commodities. We will see excess deaths over births if a significant disruption occurs to these foundational commodities. I say this because of the brittle resilience of our global BAU that supports all delocalized locals.
We have mega population areas at risk from excessive population. We have regions like the US exposed to overconsumption needs. IOW overpopulated areas need copious and stable energy. The same is true for overconsuming areas even with smaller populations needing energy.
Both BAU statuses are susceptible to disruption of food and fuel. Lower populated areas with food producing areas in the vicinity have the systematic problem of a system of production and distribution reliant on copious amounts of energy. Over populated areas like Asia may have more food subsistence built in but the sheer amount of overpopulation will lead to disruptions from the locust effect of depopulation of the mega population locations.
While I agree with Harm on one level I disagree on the systematic level. We do have lots of waste and copious amounts of resources still available but if they cannot be systematically produced and delivered by a system in place that will not matter. Our system can quickly within weeks break down to a regional or local affair.
Global JIT production, distribution, and global markets are extremely brittle to disruption of confidence, energy supply, and liquidity. We are far too close to limits on all fronts with a brittle system near an economic contraction. The population continues to expand with food productivity decreasing and water stress accelerating globally.
All this points to the vicinity of peak population. So, Harm, normal thinking says we can shoot past 8BIL from inertia and momentum of BAU. My alternative thinking says no systematically we are done or close to done with all growth. We just can’t know at this point if that inertia and momentum has begun a descent or stall. This is just another peak question that will not be known until well past the shift.
paulo1 on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 8:54 am
Italy picked up approx 5,000 people in crappy boats last weekend trying to flee north Africa. They have rescued well over 150,000 in the last year alone. And we have just begun to see the failed state scenario emerge. Bangledesh will head north, others inland, and desert refugees anywhere rumour and opportunity presents itself. The result will be conflicts and many deaths. I think we are the cusp of pop peak much like the above posters have written. We’re there, people. Hell, it will be interesting enough to see what happens in US southwest in the next few years, and the US is a very rich country.
BobInget on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 1:20 pm
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/04/market-watch-oil-prices-rise-on-iea-demand-forecast.html
HOUSTON, Apr. 15
04/15/2015
By Paula Dittrick
OGJ Special Projects Editor*
Crude oil prices rose on the New York and London markets Apr. 14 for a fourth consecutive day after the International Energy Agency forecast oil demand will rise by 1.1 million b/d this year compared with 2014 demand growth of 700,000 b/d.
Poster’s notes;
Financial news abounds how ‘poor China’s’
growth is slowing and will be only 7% this year. If the US growth rate hits 2.5% there will be free drinks all round.
Even at 2.5% growth, shale can’t keep up.
Few mention how much more oil China will consume this decade. (Imports now exceed
that of the US, even with Saudis larding on)
In fact, this is super bad news for us in the West for a host of reasons.
China has reshaped global food supplies.
China already absorbs 64% of of world soybean exports, for instance.
As we here all should know, oil and AG are linked, inextricably. When we speak of China’s predicted food imports we MUST link diesel fuel into this equation.
Therefore: As I’ve aid here before, China (and India) will soon, (5 years?) be capable of absorbing every barrel of exported oil.
This is new.. Much of that oil will be in the
shape of grains and beans.
We must count food imported from a positive oil importing nation as oil citizens of that nation did not consume as food.
BobInget on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 1:30 pm
Oh, BTW, India’s population and growth rate exceeds that of China’s.
These two will be scrapping over what oil remains inside the North American orbit.
American Idiot on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 5:41 pm
We need more Wars….
Perk Earl on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 7:16 pm
“Italy picked up approx 5,000 people in crappy boats last weekend trying to flee north Africa. They have rescued well over 150,000 in the last year alone.”
Paulo, what does Italy do with these people? Are they invited into Italy or sent back?
Perk Earl on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 7:19 pm
“…human beings have sure proven amazingly resilient when it comes to strip-mining the planet, screwing each other, and stuffing our faces.”
LMAO, good one, Harm.
Makati1 on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 7:32 pm
Some like to point out Asia’s conditions, but there are 120+ million future water/food refugee’s just south of the Mexican Border, and they may not stop in the Us … Canada.
If any of China’s people want to come to the Ps, they have ~400 miles of water to cross. Whereas, Russia is just north and a lot of open land. Where do you think they will go?
Davy on Wed, 15th Apr 2015 7:36 pm
Makster, the P’s already has 100MIL in space smaller than Arizona. There is no need for the Chinese to come down. You all already have a shit storm brewing.