Richard Heinberg’s New Book

13 Comments on "Richard Heinberg’s New Book"

Plantagenet on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 4:53 pm 



First we have to get beyond this oil glut. Then we can worry about getting beyond fossil fuels.

O.G. on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 5:10 pm 



There’s an oil glut on. Did everyone know this, about the oil glut? Well, I’m here to tell ya something about this oil glut. There is an oil glut happening. Just look at all this oil, glutting around everywhere. Can’t hardly pitch a rock without hitting some of that glut oil, which is happening right now because of the oil glut. I, and at least one other poster here REALLY want you to know and understand that there is an oil glut happening. We’re going to let you know at every slightly reasonable opportunity that there is an oil glut happening right now. No reasonable person could conclude that there’s any motivation for repeating the phrase oil glut over and over and over in every comment section other than we just really want people to get that there’s an oil glut on. If you had any doubts about whether an oil glut is happening right now, cast your non-oil glutting fears aside. Oil glut.

Plantagenet on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 6:50 pm 



Hi O.G.

Hahahahah! Thats a pretty funny post—.

Cheers!

Nony on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 7:29 pm 



The guy who wrote this thing has been incredibly wrong so far with his doomer, peaker predictions. But he persists with new ones. And he fails to admit the bad ones previously. Really this whole peaker community is anti-scientific. Is nutter.

Makati1 on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 8:34 pm 



“If you repeat a lie often enough, it will become fact in the minds of the listeners.” Joseph Goebbels*

* Reich Minister of Propaganda in Nazi Germany.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Goebbels

This “glut” is caused by a collapsing world economy, NOT an excess amount of oil. If the world economy could grow, the oil “glut” would disappear, but it won’t disappear because the economy will not/can not grow and has not grown for years.

As I have said before, the end of the Age of Petroleum will not mean there is no oil left, but that there will be no one able to buy it at a profitable price. Billions of barrels will just stay in the ground, forever. Game over.

Perk Earl on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 9:36 pm 



Seems like I’m reaching a point of boredom with peak oil. It’s an interesting subject, but it’s apparently a much longer process than many on The Oil Drum I messaged about the subject originally thought. Depletion is occurring but evidently it takes a long time to have an impact. Every year is the year of collapse, until another year begins.

Maybe I just need to stay off these message boards and take a hiatus until something more substantial takes place.

Makati1 on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 11:27 pm 



Perk, me too. I skip most of them as being repetitive and usually are by/from someone trying to keep the investor rats from jumping ship.

The numbers mean nothing as most are as reliable as a drunk at 2AM. If they may affect the world economy or the chance of war, I look at their source and maybe read them. Otherwise, I pass.

It is fun to poke sticks at some of the commenters on here though. If you read the comment section of blogs, you get a fair sampling of the intelligence, or lack of, in our world today. The decline is not just in oil or the economy, I am afraid.

Speculawyer on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 11:51 pm 



Heinberg’s schtick is really wearing thin. You can’t sell the peak oil meme for 20+ years. The near-term peakers were wrong. A combination of efficiency and unconventional oil (shale, deepwater, tar sands, etc.) have pushed back the date of peak oil by several years, if not a decade or more.

antaris on Tue, 7th Apr 2015 12:03 am 



Spec, nono, marm, plant. All scshitck for brains.

Perk Earl on Tue, 7th Apr 2015 1:26 am 



“If you read the comment section of blogs, you get a fair sampling of the intelligence, or lack of, in our world today. The decline is not just in oil or the economy, I am afraid.”

You got that one right, Mak. Brain power is diving like an out of control sub.

Kind of comical that whatever predicament props up there are so many conflicting opinions, any kind of concern gets cancelled out so all we end up with is BAU or bust, which of course will eventually lead to the latter. Meanwhile the circus is in town with the homo-colossus show in full regalia.

Davy on Tue, 7th Apr 2015 5:24 am 



Perk, this will be a slow motion process until it ain’t. The AGW thing is similar with the long process of the oceans warming and then they are warm. Phase change of water with its long period of lead up to that phase change then in an instant the change occurs. This is a nonlinear, macro, and self-organizing descent. It has all the hallmarks of a slow descent until all hell breaks loose.

I like to view it with the excepted PO speak “bumpy plateau” which most will agree was when peak conventional oil occurred sometime back around 2005. We had peak financial BAU back in 2008. We have been in the financial bumpy plateau of repressed rates and debt monitarization since then. These events were phase changes, inflections, pole shifts IMHO. They are subtle but profound changes to the very fabric of the human ecosystem.

We now appear to be in the bumpy descent with a slow but subtle drop in health of both oil and the financial system. With oil we are seeing all the peak oil dynamic problems and predicaments play out. We are seeing a slow but steady ETP of oil with depletion now showing up in a dysfunctional goldilocks range for oil and the economy. Oil and the economy are a vital and foundational aspects to BAU. When either or both are out of synch we see dysfunction. Can anyone now besides the corny cheerleaders not admit we are in the dysfunctional with oil and the financial system? This financial and oil descent now appears to be affecting demand with a corresponding deflation and oil price drop.

Perk I have been here for many months now on this forum. It has been a wonderful experience because I was experiencing frustration with no one to talk about these issues. Family, friends, and acquaintances were oblivious or dismissive of the issues we discuss routinely. This forum has given me an outlet to discuss and learn. It has given me a place for a mental workout. I donate allot of my time to the discussions here. Some may say too much but that is always the case with conversations. The good thing about a forum you don’t have to listen to those you find redundant and offensive.

I sometimes feel the redundancy and monotony of our discussions. The same old idiot fighting idiots. The same old cheerleaders, shills, and trolls jockeying. Yet, I am always learning something here because this forum draws the higher quality of thought that is needed for preparation for the coming catastrophe.

It is a similar situation I find myself in with life. It is so easy to get sucked back into BAU when you have to use BAU to transition out of BAU. There is little most of us can do to distance ourselves from BAU. I am lucky being a boomer doomer with some money and a situation for constructing a lifeboat and doomstead. Some here are just stuck. It is hard to even lift a finger at prep when the whole situation of BAU is hopeless let alone the idea of prepping out of BAU.

This is precisely the time to be fully dedicated to transition. If you are in a hopeless state you really are not because it does not cost anything to educate yourself on what to do. If you have the ability and means once educated you can see the value of doom and prep to transition out of an unhealthy BAU into something pseudo-BAU that at least is closer to reality.

I am sticking around PO. I am farming on a 400 acre Missouri Ozarks farm. I spend long hours outdoors with hard labor and in the elements. I am on here throughout the day on my IPhone and laptop for my morning rants. You all are my connection to this fantastic great turning that Man will never experience again.

I read all comments and try to show respect to all levels of enlightenment. I fight against the agendist and those who are bent on a personal message of hate and resentment. I will ride BAU out with you all. If you leave Perk keep in touch for I see a big change at hand in a matter of months to 5 years. My long term prep is at the 2 year mark of 4. Short term is accomplished. Time moves by so quick folks doom and prep please.

Davy on Tue, 7th Apr 2015 6:05 am 



Spec, your logic can be thrown back on you. Your BAUtopian hopium and exceptionalism you cornies have been preaching is in tatters. So what do you do, well, you attack the messenger. Instead of engaging in an objective discussion of the failing of BAU and the possible collapse of BAU you claim all is fine. You act like any discussion from the PO crowd was wrong when in fact POD is playing out. Of course at different speads and circumstances.

PO crowd has been all over the place with predictions but this is an evolutionary study of the end of an era. How the hell are we supposed to have a full insight into how this will play out. Specster, can you honestly tell me the oil market is not dysfunctional or the financial system is not a wreck. These are foundational elements to BAU that are a mess and deteriorating. Specster, you can criticize the PO crowd but not with your BAUtopian hopium exceptionalism that is a joke. Your criticism is a joke because it is hypocrisy of an agendist.

Perk Earl on Tue, 7th Apr 2015 1:48 pm 



“Perk, this will be a slow motion process until it ain’t. The AGW thing is similar with the long process of the oceans warming and then they are warm.

It is a similar situation I find myself in with life. It is so easy to get sucked back into BAU when you have to use BAU to transition out of BAU. There is little most of us can do to distance ourselves from BAU.

It has been a wonderful experience because I was experiencing frustration with no one to talk about these issues.
You all are my connection to this fantastic great turning that Man will never experience again.”

Great post, Davy, with parts of it pasted above. Guess I was having a temporary loss of faith in eventual collapse, because I truly think humankind went off the tracks, i.e. too obsessed with expansion and massive consumption; homo-colossus, without any forward thinking regarding what made any sense long term, and I want to see as many as possible other species make it through the bottleneck as well. But as I read on here one day we are a species that thinks short term.

My hope is post-collapse there would be greater concern for the long term, i.e. how activity in the ‘Now’ affects several tomorrow’s ahead. Most people in their lives learn most lessons from bad experiences, and so it seems humankind will need to learn one very hard lesson from collapse. Or, similar boom and bust scenarios will always mark man in the future. Fortunately, once collapse occurs, the tech to get at all that FF will be long gone, so that will force us to work within our means of what is available, which hopefully will not need to crescendo in disaster again.

Anyway, it is a new day and I think you and Mak (ironically) pulled me back from sitting on the sidelines and remaining in the game, continuing to post as this long historically amazing slide continues until it breaks.