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Page added on March 19, 2015
Oil Prices Will Recover
On St. Patrick’s Day the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil production from three of America’s largest shale plays is in decline. The EIA is forecasting that total U.S. oil production will be in decline in the 3rd quarter.
The South Texas Eagle Ford, North Dakota’s Bakken/Three Forks and the Niobrara in Colorado & Wyoming are in decline. Since horizontal shale wells have very steep production decline rates (more than 50% in the first year), the oil supply “glut” will be corrected by market forces. Shale plays require continuous drilling or they quickly go on decline.
Note: In the EIA chart above, the government’s production forecast is based on an active onshore rig count of 1,300. Baker Hughes reported March 13, 2015 that the land rig count was down to 1,069. I am forecasting the active onshore rig count in the U.S. to fall below 800 by the end of April.
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is testing the 5-year low as I write this article. Oil traders are dealing with some facts and a lot of fiction these days. The physical market is obviously oversupplied today, but the word “glut” is being way overused.
There is no doubt in my mind that some of the “narrative” coming from Wall Street analysts is purposely meant to drive down the price of oil. More than 90% of the NYMEX futures contracts are now held by non-commercial “speculators”. Many of them are now “short” oil, hoping the price of WTI will fall. Once Wall Street gets oil prices as low as they can, they will suddenly change their tone and point out that demand for oil is going up and supplies are falling. I have seen this happen several times in my 35+ years in the industry. What’s happening now is not new.
During February, WTI rose off the low of around $45/bbl that was set in late January. Oil seemed to have found a home in the $50 to $55 per barrel range a few weeks ago. Investors moved some money back into the upstream sector; pushing several of my favorite E&P companies up more than 20% year-to-date. They have now pulled back in lock step with oil prices.
Click Image To Enlarge
On March 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published their monthly Oil Market Report. It cause quite a stir on Friday the 13th and oil dropped more than $2.00/bbl. You can read the highlights of the report here: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
I thought the IEA report contained some rather bullish long-range forecasts, not the least of which is that the IEA believes global demand for refined products will increase 2.0 million barrels per day from where demand is today by the 4th quarter. They believe low fuel prices will continue to increase global demand, pushing demand for refined products up over 95 million barrels per day by year-end. I think their estimates may prove to be quite conservative. A year after the last big drop in oil prices that occurred in 2008, demand for liquid fuels increased by 3.3 million barrels per day in 2009.
Note: The chart above is labelled “World Oil Demand”, but it is really a chart of demand for refined hydrocarbon based liquids (fuel and feed stock). It includes demand for biofuels (only a small percentage).
So, why are oil prices still so low?
1. There is a lot of “FEAR” being generated by concerns over the rapidly rising amount of oil in storage. In my opinion, this is way over-blown.
2. U.S. oil production continues to rise, despite the sharp drop in the active rig count.
3. Seasonal and unplanned refinery outages have lowered demand for oil.
4. Traders are worried that President Obama will agree to a deal with Iran and lift the sanctions that are keeping an estimated million barrels per day off the market.
5. Strength of the U.S. dollar continues to weigh on commodity prices.
Let’s take these issues one at a time.
Oil Storage: At the end of February, the EIA reported that working oil storage capacity in the U.S. was 40% empty. The most talked about storage location – Cushing, Oklahoma – still has about 20 million barrels of working capacity remaining. As the tanks at Cushing approach capacity, the storage fees go up and oil will be directed elsewhere. There are many pipelines that take oil out of Cushing, so the oil is not “stranded” there. Oil will not start overflowing the tanks in central Oklahoma or anywhere else.
It is very important to understand that the weekly EIA oil storage reports (published on Wednesdays) includes pipeline fill and field level storage. Although it is somewhat hazy, it is estimated that the U.S. oil pipeline system and upstream field tanks have approximately 120 million barrels of above ground oil in “storage”. It is not included in the ~525 million barrels of commercial storage capacity that many analysts compare to the oil inventory number each week.
So, the real storage capacity in the United States is approximately 645 million barrels, compared to the 458.5 million barrels the EIA reported on March 18th as the crude oil inventory level. Therefore, we have almost 180 million barrels of storage capacity remaining and this does not include floating storage. Plus, we are only a few weeks away from the time refiners will draw more feedstock from storage.
When we combine U.S. commercial storage, other OECD storage and floating storage, there is no risk that the world will run out of places to store oil before demand starts to exceed supply. However, the weekly EIA storage reports are likely to remain bearish for at least six more weeks. The speculators that want oil to go lower will keep beating this drum.
U.S. Production Growth: Investors are puzzled by the reports that U.S. production continues to rise while the number of rigs drilling for oil has dropped more than 45% in six months. The reason for this is simple; the drilling of new wells is not what increases production. It is the connection of those wells to a gathering system that adds production. The lag time from spudding a horizontal well to completing it to connecting the supply to a pipeline can be over six months. There was a large inventory of wells “waiting on completion” when all of this started back in June and it takes time to work through this inventory.
Several of the companies I follow are now saying they plan to drill wells and hold off on completing them until oil prices move higher. Although I agree with this strategy, it is impossible to estimate how much this will impact daily production rates. My guess is not very much.
U.S. onshore production should peak this summer and go on decline in the 3rd quarter. There are several Gulf of Mexico projects coming on-line this spring that will increase total U.S. production by approximately 200,000 barrels per day. Gulf of Mexico production is expected to peak at close to 1.7 million barrels per day (BOPD) in the first quarter of 2016, up from 1.4 million BOPD currently.
Seasonal and unplanned refinery outages have lowered demand for oil: The real “consumers” of crude oil are refineries. Refiners are required to do annual maintenance and reconfigure their processes to go from producing winter blends of transportation fuels and home heating oil to producing summer blends of gasoline and diesel. Most of the maintenance related slowdowns occur in March and September. There was also a fire at a large California refinery a few months ago and a workers’ strike that lowered crude oil demand. More crude will be “taken” by refiners in the second quarter.
Iran: President Obama and Mr. Kerry seem “hell bent” on getting a deal done with Iran. In my opinion, this is very dangerous territory. Iran is a known sponsor of global terrorism and they supply weapons to several groups that want to kill us. I trust them about as far as I can throw an ICBM. They are taking control of Iraq as you read this and will soon have Saudi Arabia surrounded. Deals with the “devil” seldom work out well.
Based on the letter 47 senators sent to the leadership of Iran last week, I doubt any deal Obama and Kerry come up with leads to a lifting of sanctions anytime soon. Even if it does, it will take several months for Iran to ramp up their crude oil output.
Strength of the U.S. Dollar: This is a real concern.
The spike in the value of the dollar compared to a basket of other currencies can be viewed at: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts
The dollar is up approximately 25% from where it traded during the 2nd quarter of 2014 and is responsible for at least $25/bbl of the drop in the price of WTI crude oil. Since oil trades in U.S. dollars, there is an inverse relationship between the dollar and the price of oil. This tops my list of “real” concerns when it comes to my long-term outlook for oil prices.
Conclusion: Your guess as to where oil prices are heading in the next few months is as good as mine. Even though there are plenty of places to store oil, the record high U.S. oil inventories will continue to give the bears support for lower price forecasts. In my opinion, we are nearing the mid-point of the bottoming process for oil. At the beginning of the year I predicted that oil would test the lows several times during February to May, and then begin to rise. I’ve seen nothing yet to change my opinion.
In the short-term, I am expecting energy investors to remain on the sidelines until they see U.S. production growth slow and demand increasing.
By Dan Steffens for Oilprice.com
29 Comments on "Oil Prices Will Recover"
Plantagenet on Thu, 19th Mar 2015 7:28 pm
The EIA chart (above) shows a slight drop in oil production in 2015 due to the oil glut, and then predicts that oil production will resume its rise in 2016.
I know some here are predicting that oil production will collapse in 2015 and the world will start spiraling down, but the EIA model does’t show that at all. The EIA has a MINOR drop in oil production in 2015 followed by a return to oil production growth in 2016 and, although its right at the edge of the figure the EIA shows oil production continuing on up to higher levels in 2017 as well
Apneaman on Thu, 19th Mar 2015 7:49 pm
“Oil Prices Will Recover”
What does that even mean?
What are they recovering from?
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Mar 2015 8:20 pm
“Your guess as to where oil prices are heading in the next few months is as good as mine.” BINGO!
penury on Thu, 19th Mar 2015 8:46 pm
Predicting prices of anything is a fools game and oil is particularly difficult. I think that it us easier to predict that it does not matter what the price of oil will be in a year or ten years, my prediction is that utilization will be lower then than now because affordability for the masses will be more of a problem. I know I beat this dead horse constantly but I am convinced from all the evidence that I can find that the world is in an economic depression unrivaled in history.With each passing month more and more the evidence seems to more firmly support the thesis of economic contraction not growth. Central banks are getting desperate and it shows in the stock markets of the world.
Mickey on Thu, 19th Mar 2015 8:57 pm
If Iran is sponsor of terrorism, then what about Saudi Arabia. They did
9/11
sponsored Al Qaeda
created Islamic State. Why no sanctions against that country. Because they sell Oil at lower prices, they are allowed to go scot free.
Ted Wilson on Thu, 19th Mar 2015 9:03 pm
As per http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2
Oil production will drop in Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara. Their combined production is nearly 3.5 million b/d. Lets see how it impacts oil market.
yoananda on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 2:02 am
It’s not oil price that is important to watch, it’s :
how many shale oil company will resists, and how much investor will want to risk next time, after the “bubble” of easy credit have gone.
That’s the real question to predict the near term oil production.
On the long run (5/10yr) production will decline or collapse. Maybe it will start this year, maybe in 2 year or 5, but it’s coming.
Rodster on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 2:12 am
“I know I beat this dead horse constantly but I am convinced from all the evidence that I can find that the world is in an economic depression unrivaled in history”
I have been saying the same thing that we have been in a global Depression since the financial collapse of 2008. I don’t think this is the worse Depression the world has seen partly due to the fact the Central Banks have been printing money to keep the global economy from going into Defcon 5.
When the entire global financial system goes into terminal meltdown mode, that will be the greatest depression the world has ever faced. With each passing day we are one step closer.
Perk Earl on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 3:52 am
“When the entire global financial system goes into terminal meltdown mode, that will be the greatest depression the world has ever faced. With each passing day we are one step closer.”
I’m of the same opinion, Rodster. Wow, what a wild ride that will be too. Even as we write these posts, things are getting more crazy out there with splinter groups causing mayhem due in great part to the widening divide between the 85 individuals that own as much as the bottom 3.5 billion. It’s starting to seem like a B sci-fi movie. A bombing here, a mass kidnap there, oil pipeline bombings, oil shipment train derailments, civil war in Libya and Syria, money printing and cutting interest rates by central banks around the world, phony unemployment numbers, stock markets to the Moon Alice as corps buy back their stock to keep the price up to get the CEO his bonus, oil price dropping but supply not because every dime now must be hoarded by all suppliers in a desperate attempt to keep profits up for the wealthy and EBT’s for the poor.
It’s like a big block of ice that is cracking. At some point it will shatter.
Makati1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 5:50 am
Perk, you reminded me of something I once witnessed years ago. The mile-wide river that runs past the city I was working in, had an unusually cold winter freeze, several feet thick with ice. Then there was an unusually warm few days with a heavy rain in the watershed upstream.
I was startled out of my desk chair with a loud crack that sounded like a lightning bolt just outside the building. I went to the window and saw the ice on the river breaking into house sized chunks and piling over each other in their push downstream. The cracks and crashes lasted for many minutes until the whole mass was moving. Then the sounds muted to rumbles and an occasional crash as a chunk was pushed ashore somewhere, to the destruction of whatever was in it’s path. Moments before, the whole scene was quite and beautiful.
I see the breakup of the current economy as a similar event. All calm and BAU until …
rockman on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 6:18 am
Back to the basics: the accuracy of every model, which is what the EIA is depictingin their charts, is dependent upon the accuracy of the assumptions made to construct the model:
“In the EIA…forecast is based on an active onshore rig count of 1,300. Baker Hughes reported March 13, 2015 that the land rig count was down to 1,069. I am forecasting the active onshore rig count in the U.S. to fall below 800 by the end of April”
The EIA assumption is already incorrect and becoming more so weekly. Thus their predictions are incorrect. Making projections while the rig count continues to slide is pointless IMHO. And, as pointed out by our cohort, so is predicting the price of oil especially with such unstable dynamics at play.
Patience: by mid-summer we should have a much better idea of where the changes are taking us.
Perk Earl on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 6:46 am
That must have been quite a spectacle to observe, Mak, and as you point out possibly analogous to what will occur at some point.
shortonoil on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 7:39 am
This graph gives the maximum price that the economy can afford to pay for oil. It has nothing to do with supply/ demand, or how much oil some Middle Eastern country can produce. It is not a projection for the price of oil; it is the boundary conditions that the laws of physics says it must obey:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
In 2015 the economy can not pay more than $77/barrel. $77/barrel is the maximum amount of goods, and services that can be generated by a barrel of oil for the end consumer. To pay more than $77 would require a transfer of energy from other sources to the petroleum producing sector of the economy. Of course, that would defeat the purpose of using petroleum in the first place; which is as an energy source. The result would be that the economy would rapidly collapse under such a scenario.
The projection that a decline in shale production will balance the supply/ demand ratio is false. Such speculation displays a complete lack of understanding for the energy dynamics that control the production, and use of petroleum. To produce petroleum requires an energy input, and in the case of shale that input is equal to its output. Cessation of shale production will decease demand by an amount that is equal to the decline in its supply. With some lag time, the result would be a zero net change in the supply/ demand balance. Traders will find that as shale production declines that there may be a short term bounce in price, which will soon be followed again by a decline.
Our site gives a comprehensive over view of the energy dynamics that control the production, price, and depletion of petroleum.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org
viewcrafters on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 8:16 am
Keep working on a new rail road system…
viewcrafters
fred1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 8:31 am
Short nails it again
Rodster on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 9:22 am
“Even as we write these posts, things are getting more crazy out there with splinter groups causing mayhem due in great part to the widening divide between the 85 individuals that own as much as the bottom 3.5 billion. It’s starting to seem like a B sci-fi movie.”
That seems to be the case doesn’t it? Look at all the crazy stuff happening like the Govt outright lying about it’s jobs and GDP data. Just making stuff up to fit with the propaganda they want the nation and world to believe. There is no way in 100 hells that the dollar spot index should be in the upper 90’s with all the money printing by the Federal Reserve.
But it’s not the US Gubmint just making shit up, it’s everyone else as well. Italy is using prostitution and illegal drugs to pad their GDP. China has been fudging their GDP numbers for many years even prior to the collapse of 2008. So everyone is lying about their data to keep it’s population from outright protests and revolts.
You have a potential black swan in Greece, a war with Russia so the US can cover it’s but with the economy. Then you have all these Fiat currencies just crashing and collapsing while the central bans continue to print more money.
All this money printing is just being used to create inflation to counter deflation. And that is the fear that once deflation takes off then all bets are off. Deflation is a future debt payback killer and is associated with a DEPRESSION. If deflation takes hold then the central banks would not be able to hide that we were in a Depression all along.
Davy on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 11:14 am
Short said – In 2015 the economy cannot pay more than $77/barrel. $77/barrel is the maximum amount of goods, and services that can be generated by a barrel of oil for the end consumer.
Davy says- Short you know from my many comment I am bought into Hills Group ETP. I am bought into several other PO dynamics. I agree with the physics of this statement but the reality is saying there are a whole host of other nonlinear variables in play not only energy. Energy is a foundational commodity so eventually at some point it will be defining but how long that takes is debatable.
Short said – To pay more than $77 would require a transfer of energy from other sources to the petroleum producing sector of the economy. Of course, that would defeat the purpose of using petroleum in the first place; which is as an energy source.
Davy says – Short I believe the economy is now leaving the bumpy plateau and entering the bumpy descent (Aggregate, Macro, and Global). This phase change from growth to descent is clouded at numerous levels of abstraction. We have wealth transfers through the QE’s, Zirps, and 1%er corruption of the financial economic level. We have energy transfer going on as well. We are investing in energy build outs and divesting assets through mothballing energy assets. Some are good actions some are bad as far as economic value. There is cross transfer of wealth for example the shale Ponzi faux bonanza that will suck financial wealth into an energy black hole of negative value.
So in conclusion Short, I am saying we are at a peak with a phase change from growth into descent. This will be a turbulent time like steam coming to boil. Market price discovery in the finance sector is clouded and value or disvalue of the global energy complex is likewise clouded. Some financial or energy assets invested in now will never bring a real return. Some will be stranded investments and assets. As long as wealth transfer is possible we will see a murky and cloudy atmosphere in an environment of manipulation and corruption. True value will be difficult to determine.
These are the end days of BAU but she has life left and lots of cannibalization and wealth transfer left. Many people and peoples will be triage out of BAU into oblivion. Countries with power will keep power at the expense of the weak sucking their blood dry. The same is true at the local and individual level. People are going to lose their jobs and livelihood in an ad hoc abandonment of segments of the economy and communities. At some point the BAU fabric will snap but there is little way to determine that time frame.
Short says – The result would be that the economy would rapidly collapse under such a scenario.
Davy says – Short I agree this can happen but I also believe this situation can continue a few more years with wealth transfer and cannibalization. There is little predictability of this process because it will be random and chaotic as all economic descents are.
Northwest Resident on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 11:31 am
Davy — Deep thought and great ideas expressed in your post above. I agree, as long as TPTB can get away with triaging entire people and countries out of BAU, then sufficient energy and resources may still exist to keep BAU creaking forward a little longer. But to accomplish that, they have to keep panic suppressed, and to do that they have to keep the masses oblivious to what is actually happening. So, a big part of keeping BAU going is a continued full blown propaganda campaign designed to deceive and confuse the masses — exactly what we see daily, everywhere, coming at us hard and heavy through all the different media channels, non-stop. It has worked really well so far, and my impression is that unless something really BIG happens — something so big that TPTB lose control of “the message” — then yes, they’ll be able to stretch this sordid version of BAU out another year or two or three, maybe more. I honestly don’t know which is more scary — that it might all just suddenly end and send us back to the middle ages, or that people in general are in fact stupid enough to be so thoroughly manipulated.
BobInget on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 11:54 am
Forget about ‘demand’ our next ‘crisis’ will, already is, centered around ‘supply.
shortonoil on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 12:07 pm
These are the end days of BAU but she has life left and lots of cannibalization and wealth transfer left.
Petroleum now powers 38% of the world’s economy. About half of that is the general economy, and half is the petroleum producing sector itself. The petroleum producing sector is now in its death throws; at least a third of all the barrels produced are now done at a loss.
This situation will only worsen in the near future. Oil will disappear when the gigantic infrastructure that has been build to produce it fails. That failure is likely to occur to a sufficient degree over the next five years; sufficiently enough to completely cripple the system.
In what order the unwinding will happen is impossible to foretell; we may stumble along in a historically crushing depression for another 15 years; but the illusion that all is well will be decimated in the near future. Millions of homeless, desperate people, without hope will crowd out, and shout down the present spin masters of deception.
jjhman on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 12:38 pm
First off, I agree that things are getting worse and that oil is getting more expensive, relative to what people in the west can afford. But I also believe that, at the expense of people in the west, workers are gaining wealth in developing countries.
I do, however, disagree with the, sometimes expressed and sometimes implied, notion that there is some kind of large conspiracy by gubmints and other malelovent entities to deceive about the situation.
The realistic scenario is that described by Upton Sinclair so many years ago. To paraphrase; people believe what they have to to get on with their lives. If you are a banker or an oil company executive you believe that what you are doing is the right thing. If you are a government employee producing data you do what you can to keep your job. Best example: the CIA told the Bush administration what they wanted to hear to start the Gulf war. What people don’t seem to understand is that the CIA flacks BELIEVED WHAT THEY WERE SAYING.
Politicians don’t believe in facts, just as any lawyer doesn’t believe in facts. They believe in (haha) Triumph of the Will (get it?)
So, please, give up on the “lies” and “propoganda”. Govt agencies, business executives, politicians are totally dedicated to BAU. They simply can’t do thier jobs if BAU doesn’t work. So the believe what they have to to try and keep it working.
Five years ago I would never have believed they could keep this rat race going this long. Now I am deeply impressed with the intelligence and willpower that has been exerted to extend the “Wiley Coyote” condition.
Northwest Resident on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 12:59 pm
jjhman — Not everybody sees the extent to which the lies and subterfuge are coordinated. What you say about everybody believing what they want to believe because it is in their own best interest is true. But that doesn’t explain the consistent propaganda themes being pumped out through the mass media channels on a constant basis. I majored in Public Relations in college — I see the techniques and the methods in action. For people who have never studied Public Relations, or who don’t want to believe that our government and our top notch media and industrial corporations would stoop to controlling the masses, well, ok then. Carry on, all is well!
GregT on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 1:25 pm
Extend and pretend will not last forever. You can only put so much lipstick on a pig. The drums of war are being beaten louder and louder.
It is only a matter of time before the blood really begins to flow.
shortonoil on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 2:01 pm
Extend and pretend will not last forever. You can only put so much lipstick on a pig. The drums of war are being beaten louder and louder.
It is only a matter of time before the blood really begins to flow.
You very well may be correct. But, in a world of declining resources, expending the last few of them on some mindless, senseless, bloody war would be lunacy. Wars consume huge amounts of resources, and that is what we don’t have. The days of World War II are over; the day when the US was still rich in everything is gone. War today would put people into a level of poverty that they never dreamed was possible. Anyone who wants to live the rest of their very short life, eating out of garbage cans should fervently support the next banker concocted war. War will bring down hell on everyone’s head; the TPTB included!
Apneaman on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 2:23 pm
jjhman, A lie is no less a lie just because someone pretents to believe it. Your getting rationalization, justification, denial, group-think and self preservation confused with pure delusion. Propaganda is a well established field of study and a multi billion dollar business. Sun Tzu brought it up repeatedly in “The Art of War” and Machiavelli’s “The Prince” is a pretty much a text book on governing with lies and deception. Fast forward to the early 20th century and you get Edward Bernays, Joseph Gobbles, Madison Ave, Think Tanks, PSYOP, social engineering, etc etc.
Perk Earl on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 4:57 pm
Great thread today!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-20/euro-bears-bounce-back-from-fed-bruises-as-greek-deadline-looms
‘Dollar Suffers Worst Week Since 2011 as Fed Damps Rates Outlook’
The stock market also went berzerk with Dow up over 18.1K
QE may have been shelved for a while, but ZIRP is not going away anytime soon because the goal posts keep getting moved to avoid the unthinkable; stock market crash, loan defaults, rising dollar causing further oil price drop.
The Fed is STUCK on ZIRP.
Northwest Resident on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 5:12 pm
Perk — Yeah, stuck on ZIRP is right. Except, it isn’t!! Seriously. Now we’re talking negative interest rates!!!
They sure as hell can’t raise interest rates, but going the other way? Why not?
I can’t wait to refinance my house at -3.5% interest. That ought to cut my payment down a little.
It just keeps getting better and better.
TGIF
Perk Earl on Fri, 20th Mar 2015 7:08 pm
“Now we’re talking negative interest rates!!!”
I know, that scared the *^%$ out of me the first time I read about negative interest rates being floated. So we’re going to hand our money over to the banks so they can lend it out X 10’s a greater amount and collect interest on it, but they also want us to pay so they can do that?
What I don’t get is this preoccupation with concern over the banks making enough money. Aren’t they already making billions while they pay their staff minimum wage? Something’s gone askew in the worst way. Siphoning off money for a tiny percentage was not how this gig was suppose to work.
Apneaman on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 1:29 am
The Glad News Bears
“By Glad News Bears I mean the people who have been successfully spun by the propaganda juggernaut run by the Masters of the Fracking Universe and their financial-engineer accomplices. It is they who invented and sold the idea of a renaissance of the American oil bidness that would lead to energy independence and total world domination (cue the insane laughter).”
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2015/03/20/the-glad-news-bears/#more-2782