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Page added on March 11, 2015
We will need more food
We have all heard the oft-repeated United Nations’ prediction for global population growth of about 9.2 billion people by 2050. And no one expects a reduction in population until after 2100. With more of us humans bustling around the planet, more food will need to be grown on the same, or even less, land. The alternative to greater food production is grisly – no one wants humans to die from hunger and malnutrition. To successfully produce sufficient food for everyone will require creative technologies and innovative approaches that will likely vary from region-to-region around the globe.
Here in the U.S. consumer opinions about food production are diverse, and understanding how consumers view the challenges and potential solutions facing food production systems is critical if we hope to feed ourselves and the world during this century.
In December 2014 a survey from Oklahoma State University reported on the food challenges of greatest concern to American consumers. About 23% of consumers felt that having affordable food was most important. Only 11% were concerned with producing sufficient food to meet the demands of a growing world population. Similarly, 10% of U.S. consumers were concerned with minimizing adverse environmental consequences of food production. Interestingly, inequitable distribution of food around the world was concerning to just 8% of American consumers. These results make me wonder to what extent we have grown more focused on ourselves here in the U.S. and less concerned with global food security.
Finally, when asked about the best approach to increase future food production, greater than 75% indicated that use of more “natural” farming practices would be better than “technological” solutions. Natural agricultural practices included local foods, organic farming, and unprocessed foods. Technology-based solutions would also include genetic engineering, optimized use of herbicides and pesticides, etc.
A Food & Health Survey conducted in 2012 by the International Food Information Council sheds additional light on this point. This survey reported that 58% of Americans give a lot of thought to the healthfulness of the foods they eat. About 54% felt that they would rather enjoy their food than worry about what’s in it. In other words, for many consumers too much scientific information tends to overwhelm rather than inform. And finally, half of Americans surveyed felt that it was easier to do their taxes than to figure out how to eat a healthy diet! These results and other surveys show that too often the typical US consumer is confused by the competing and often conflicting information on food safety and nutrition.
A recent survey conducted by the USDA Economic Research Service explored consumer attitudes toward a quintessentially American food habit: eating out. Since 1929, the food purchased for consumption outside the home has increased from 13 to 43% of the average US household’s food budget. Fast food itself comprises about 3 to 4%-units of this amount and is chosen primarily–you guessed it–to save time for other activities. Americans spend a tremendous amount of money on food destined to be eaten outside the home at some sort of restaurant. Convenience is often the primary reason, and we see again that the U.S. consumer makes food choices that do not reflect those of the developing world.
Overall, we will need to produce more food particularly to feed the burgeoning population in the developing countries of the world. It is difficult to envision how the world’s entire population can be fed without application of the best technologies at hand. Although we in the developed world are facing very slow population growth and could conceivably meet our food needs with less productive systems, that is not a choice for the entire world. The bottom line is that we are the beneficiaries of the world’s most safe and productive food system, but we can’t let our fortunate position bias food production systems designed to feed the entire world
18 Comments on "We will need more food"
Bob Owens on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 12:31 pm
Yes, we will need more food. So the place to start is to reduce the 30% of food that is lost between the farm and the table. That must be reduced to close to zero first. Then we can talk about other food policies. Population must also start trending down, and fast, or the situation is hopeless. Given our poor human community abilities, the odds of this happening in a controlled manner are zero.
Lawfish on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 12:33 pm
What a waste of space this article is!
“And no one expects a reduction in population until after 2100.” Really? No one?
Rodster on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 1:09 pm
“So the place to start is to reduce the 30% of food that is lost between the farm and the table.”
So true !
How about all the wasted prepared food by restaurants and supermarkets who will just toss food away because they can’t resell it. How about donating said food to food banks to donate it to the homeless or needy?
When I was a kid growing up, I was often chided for eating all my food on my plate. I apparently was supposed to leave a certain amount on my plate to show I was better than the hungry in parts of Africa or other third world countries.
A lot of the wasted food is part of government regulations. The most egregious is the law that mandates that ALL restaurants at least in FL must leave a faucet running at ALL times while preparing food because of fear that bacteria could buildup in the faucet. Are you kidding me? That was my reaction when I first heard of it. We waste so much food and water to maintain BAU it’s almost criminal with all the people who are going thru the way with hungry stomachs because they don’t have the money to buy food.
ghung on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 1:47 pm
No mention of natural and human-caused limits to industrial food production: Climate change; soil degradation; drought and water over-utilization; super-weeds as a result of herbicide use; immigration policies; energy and soil amendment constraints; declining population of farmers; animal diseases:
Tyson Foods (TSN) Stock Falls Today on Reports of Bird Flu Outbreak in Arkansas–
“NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Shares of Tyson Foods fell 4.27% to $38.08 in morning trading Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a suspected case of avian influenza, aka bird flu, in poultry in Arkansas.
Arkansas is the third-largest U.S. producer of turkey and the home state of Tyson Foods, the largest chicken company in the nation.
“There is a suspect case in Arkansas, but testing is ongoing,” USDA spokeswoman Lyndsay Cole told Reuters.
If confirmed, the bird flu infection could lead to more trading restrictions from nations such as Taiwan, Singapore, and Nicaragua that have already limited U.S. poultry exports thanks to bird flu outbreaks in other states, including Minnesota, Missouri, and California.
Arkansas producers have been on guard for a potential bird flu outbreak since Minnesota and Missouri confirmed cases of the highly pathogenic virus in the last week. The Minnesota outbreak was the first case in the Mississippi flyway, a migratory route along the Mississippi River that includes Missouri and Arkansas, Reuters notes.”
This follows last year’s outbreak of a swine disease that killed huge numbers of piglets, the reduction in cattle herds due to drought, and California’s water woes. All part of the vaunted “food production systems designed to feed the entire world”.
Got a garden? Got seeds? Got chickens?
Davy on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 1:54 pm
Bobby, little can be done to eliminate food waste from BAU until food insecurity begins. Eventually post BAU food will go seasonal. Food prep will change, food preservation, and food manufacturing will end. Leftovers will be utilized in creative ways like the old days. Soups are an example.
In the meantime BAU food waste is unavoidable. The JIT growing and distribution of Monocultures will continue. Fast food, slow restaurant food, and junk food will continue. Until a crisis we will use food like we do most other consumables without respect or reverence for where it came. A good famine will change all that
Don on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 2:27 pm
There are people out there that are already doing this, believe it or not, you can help them.
http://missionforthemultitudes.weebly.com/
Yes his name is Don, no he is not me. This Don is genuinely a good guy, though a tad on the churchy side, and helped me with my aquaponics setup. Please don’t send him hatemail meant for me.
Gilles Fecteau on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 3:04 pm
We produce more than enough food to feed 9 billion people. The problem is that too much goes to feed farm animals.
Going vegetarian is the easiest way to reduce your foot print. It is also healthier.
BobInget on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 3:37 pm
Field operations
Diesel fuel used for field operations varies with management practices. A range of 4 to 6 gallons per
acre is common, particularly if one primary and one or more secondary tillage operations are used
(Figure 1). Seeds must be planted, grain harvested, and weeds controlled (typically with spraying). Fuel
used for these operations is typically 2 to 2.5 gallons per acre, which represents fuel consumption for a
no-till system. The energy required for tilling soil can be an additional 2 gallons of fuel per acre or more.
The amount of fuel required for tillage depends on both the type and number of tillage operations
(PM 709 Fuel Required for Field Operations). Primary tillage refers to initial tillage on untilled soil.
One single primary tillage operation that covers the entire soil surface, such as chisel plowing, usually
requires at least one gallon of fuel per acre when tilling at a depth of 6 to 8 inches. Fuel consumption
may be two gallons per acre or more depending on tillage depth and/or the number of different soil
manipulations that occur (e.g., subsoiling and disking with a combination disk-ripper). Individual
secondary tillage operations often require 0.6 to 0.7 gallons of fuel per acre. However, fuel consumption
may be greater for large ‘combination’ implements with several operations (e.g. discs, sweeps,
Davy on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 3:56 pm
Gills, you are talking theoretical. When reality and economics enters the picture your point has zero traction. Is food just going to be given away? If so are farmers going to be given diesel? It is questions like these that blow holes in the think tanks and academics who preach growth is ok.
We cannot fee 9BIL even with no meat. We likely cannot feed 3BIL without fossil fuels. Food productivity is dropping water and soils are being degraded. The global distribution system is highly fragile. He issues has so many variables and nearly all are negative from farm imputes to diseases.
It is people like you that spread Hopium that we can grow population if only we could do this or do that. Gills, the game is over and it is time to pay for our debauchery.
antaris on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 4:15 pm
Hey Gilles, how many bino pills will be needed per year for 9 billion people.
Don on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 4:37 pm
I’m pro-vegetarian the way I’m pro-gay. The more vegetarians there are, the more steak there is for me. The more gay dudes there are, the more ladies there are for Don.
Makati1 on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 7:49 pm
Lawfish, you are correct.
Rodster, also.
Ghung, Don and Gilles, ditto.
BobInget, interesting stats. Once watched an Amish farmer plow his field with a team of mules. I would much rather see that than a diesel smoke belching tractor, although I did plow an 80 acre field for a rancher in Idaho, in the 60s, using his big diesel with a gang plow. Boring!
MSN Fanboy on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 8:23 pm
“no one wants humans to die from hunger and malnutrition”
WELLLLLLLLL. LOL
Apneaman on Wed, 11th Mar 2015 8:24 pm
We are at .85C of a degree above base line and climbing and CO2 is increasing every year. Good luck with that whole growing crops thing in the new climate.
Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/last-time-carbon-dioxide-levels-111074
theultravixens on Thu, 12th Mar 2015 5:47 am
According to FAO data, agricultural land under cultivation peaked a few years ago: http://www.igd.com/Global/ContentImages/Articles/Content/World%20agricultural%20area.jpg
Combined with the fact that yield increases are slowing globally, along with increasing rates of desertification and soil depletion (which is especially problematic in Africa) and depletion of freshwater aquifers, it’s yet another addition to the nexus of problems we face.
Lawfish on Thu, 12th Mar 2015 9:53 am
Hey, Davy, I always enjoy reading your posts, however, I slightly disagree with one point. I don’t think food preservation will end with the end of BAU. Traditional food preservation will. But I practice both water bath and pressure canning, both of which can be done with a simple wood stove. I preserve all my excess fish in small ball jars and use it like canned tuna. All excess garden veggies get the appropriate canning, although as a practical matter, that’s only tomatoes and peppers, my two favorite veggies and the ones I’m best at growing in volume. Over this past weekend, my bride used the last jar of tomatoes from my 2014 garden. I have 32 new plants in the ground doing wonderfully, so I’m looking forward to an even bigger harvest this year.
But the preservation issue is one which I have given much thought to in prepping my little off-grid cabin (which is still only a concept at this point – the land is there). I plan to keep chickens (I have 4 now), rabbits and goats. Anything bigger, and you’ve got a huge spoilage issue. In fact, I’m thinking it would take many runs through the pressure canner to preserve the meat from one goat. Hopefully, I’ll have a solar freezer, but if not, I’ll can it. Needless to say, my collection of Ball jars is growing exponentially.
Davy on Thu, 12th Mar 2015 10:39 am
Law, yea, after I posted that I notice my ambiguity. These mistakes happen when you comment too much like I do.
I too am doing canning and soon plan on fermenting grape juice into wine and grappa. I want to build a smoke house for meat. I have an old lake decant pipe I will uses as a cellar. It just needs a door. There are many things we can and must do for the end of BAU food.
What I meant with that post is the modern food preservation in all its ways especially freezing and refrigeration. You are so right about goats, chickens and rabbits being a meal that can be made ready just after the kill. Of course you may can meat but nothing like that fresh taste. G-man has several posts where he mentioned canning his meats. I think Paulo mentioned it too.
Anyway, Law, I am following your post with you doomsted work. Good luck and may the gods bless us with a few more years of dooming and prepping before the shit storm arrives.
Hugh Culliton on Thu, 12th Mar 2015 6:32 pm
Trying to grow more and more food will result in greater damage to the biosphere and a larger and larger population that will absorb any growth or increased efficiency in food production. We are all “yeast people” as Kunstler once said. As with any population, numbers will increase until there is a population crash. I’ve abandoned all hope in the world proactively dealing with limiting population growth. However I really hope that I’m dead wrong.