Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on January 19, 2015
Plunging oil prices could kill electric and hyrbid cars
Gas-guzzling cars are gaining favor once again, as low oil prices are cheapening petrol, driving consumers away from more economic and expensive eco-friendly models.
Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude have fallen below $50 per barrel, greatly cheapening the cost of refined products such as gasoline and petroleum.
In the US, gasoline for cars is selling for about $2 per gallon according to the Automobile Association of America (AAA). In Dallas, Texas, a nationwide record was set on Saturday of $1.30 per gallon.
Last week oil prices fell to six year lows, with Brent and WTI both dropping below $45 a barrel for the first time since 2009.
Consumers in the two biggest markets – China and the US – are reacting to this trend, skipping fuel-efficient vehicles in favor of luxury cars, SUVs, and big trucks.
In America there are over 250,000 full electric and plug-in cars, and if sales continue their strong upward trend, that number is set to keep growing. However, the figure is still short of President Barack Obama’s goals of 1 million electric vehicles on the road. The Obama administration also will require automakers to increase fuel efficiency from 35.5 miles per gallon (mpg) in 2016, to 54.5 mpg by 2025.
According to the Electric Drive Transportation Association, electric and plug-in cars, combined with hybrids, make up 3.6 percent of the car market. The sales boost was helped by crude oil prices being at a historical high since 2008.
In Europe, it’s another story. Unlike other countries, the US doesn’t impose federal taxes on gasoline. In Norway, a gallon of gasoline costs more than $9 dollars, and in Turkey, more than $8. For many European drivers, the investment in buying electric still pays off.
In the US at the current level of $2 gallon gas, someone shopping for an electric car can only expect to make back money the saved in fuel in 14 years, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.
The stock price of Tesla Motors, which exclusively sells plug-in vehicles, have been hit hard by falling oil prices, with shares losing 15 percent in the last six months, currently trading at $193 per share, down from its year high of $224.
Solar, wind, and other renewables will likely not face the same fate as electric cars, since petroleum is not used to generate electricity,Adnan Amin, the Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), told the FT.
“We don’t see a direct impact of oil prices on power generation,” Amin said.
However, he warned that low oil prices could spur low natural gas prices and eventually pose a threat to wind and solar power generators.
17 Comments on "Plunging oil prices could kill electric and hyrbid cars"
Plantagenet on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 4:24 pm
People don’t buy electric cars to save money. People buy electric cars to show they care about the environment.
Kenz300 on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 5:23 pm
RT — speaking for the oil producers (Russia)… and hoping that the competition goes away…….
Consider the source………
Electric cars are the future…….
We can deal with the cause of Climate Change (fossil fuels) or we will deal with the impact………
Pope Francis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches | World news | The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/27/pope-francis-edict-climate-change-us-rightwing
————————
How Fossil Fuel Interests Attack Renewable Energy
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/how-fossil-fuel-interests-attack-renewable-energy
Speculawyer on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 6:16 pm
Indeed Kenz300 . . . this is your dealer telling you not to worry about being addicted. There is plenty of supply. Don’t worry, the price will stay low too. So, go ahead . . . shoot up.
Hybrid car sales have slowed and that is disappointing. But plug-in car sales have continued to grow.
GregT on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 6:23 pm
I am sure that most people that buy electric cars, buy them to save money. Anyone who does buy them to show that they care about the environment, is very confused.
Cars are not good for the environment. Electric cars are no different.
GregT on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 6:29 pm
“But plug-in car sales have continued to grow.”
Yes they have. Last year in Canada 3600 were sold. The year before, 3400. There have been 9200 EVs sold in Canada since the beginning of 2011. During that same time period alone, almost 7 million new cars and trucks have been sold.
toolpush on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 6:43 pm
I can’t predict what will happen to the Hybrids or EVs, as stated above these are not usually bought on price, but on making a statement. But I feel there is a quiet achiever that has come into the car market that has gained very little attention. It is direct fuel injection. It has allowed a great deal of engine downsizing,and up to 25% in fuel savings, this is not going to go away. The large car companies are incorporating it in all there new designed engines, and it will not be long before it is just a standard feature on all cars. The consumer will not have a choice.They will be driving more fuel efficient cars.
Makati1 on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 6:52 pm
Electric cars…
Tesla Model S sedan: > $69,900.00 (2014)
Median US household income: < $52,000.00 (2014)
Now, how many do you think will be sold in the US guys?
A ~$70K car requires an annual income of at least $140K, putting the owner in the top 10% by income. That means that, at best, less than 10% of Americans could own a Tesla, IF they wanted one. That only leaves ~225,000,000 personal vehicles using gasoline. (vs ~30,000,000 electric Teslas) But even that many would blowup the electric grid long before the last sale.
Ditto for the other 'hybrids'. They are being priced out of all but the luxury market, which will soon include ALL cars for personal use as incomes/jobs slide into the 3rd world.
Plantagenet on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 7:07 pm
@GreT
Your suggestion that people buy electric cars to save money doesn’t make any sense. Electric cars cost MORE than conventional cars.
Yes, charging an EV is cheaper than fueling a car, but when you include the extra cost of buying the EV you NEVER break even.
Bandits on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 8:02 pm
Continued low oil prices will demonstrate to even the most ignorant that electric and hybrid cars are parasites. They are only possible in a time when the supporting infrastructure was built and is maintained by cheap fossil fuels. They had no chance in a world of cheap, high EROI FF’s.
Electric cars are purchased as a second car. The gas guzzling SUV is the main family transport, no serious motorist relies on a 50 mile trip limit and long charge times for their main transport, they are shopping trolleys or for Jack to show off at the office.
If people buy hybrids and electric cars for the sake of the environment they are the biggest idiots of all. The same with renewables. The world is using fossil fuels at peak despite adding solar and wind generation at record levels. The advent of renewables and electric cars have not reduced the burn in any way shape or form.
They actually add to the FF burning disaster by extending the time they can be burnt at peak. Renewable and electric cars are simply extenders, that allow Joe down the road the ability to burn for longer. He burns what the stupid people do not.
These facts don’t stop the ignorant from promoting renewables and EV’s as being a solution to peak oil and peak resources, as being environmentally friendly and economically viable. These people are the most dangerous on the planet.
Makati1 on Tue, 20th Jan 2015 8:46 am
Plant, you are right.
Tesla: $70,000+ Electric
Chevy $30,000+ gasoline
$40,000 @ $5/gal = ~8,000 gallons or about 200,000 miles. More than the life time of an average car. No savings there, even if electric is free.
Mike999 on Tue, 20th Jan 2015 9:37 am
TESLA was rated the best car Consumer Reports ever tested.
People are buying the best car.
Apneaman on Tue, 20th Jan 2015 12:55 pm
It does not matter how good any electric car is, like all techno bailouts their ability to be scaled up is constrained by physical realities. Just like all the other “Green Dreams.” Even if the raw materials were available and affordable, the environmental costs of extracting, refining and manufacturing would destroy what little is left of the barely functioning Eco-systems. Kinda like bombing the village to save it.
CHARTS: Giant gap between future lithium supply, demand
http://www.mining.com/charts-chasm-between-future-lithium-supply-demand-28137/
Apneaman on Tue, 20th Jan 2015 12:58 pm
What few electric car there are can be powered by that ever so reliable green energy………..some of the time..maybe.
UK hits minus 13˚C and wind hits “zero” output
http://euanmearns.com/uk-hits-minus-13%CB%9Ac-and-wind-hits-zero-output/
Davy on Tue, 20th Jan 2015 3:19 pm
AP said – Kinda like bombing the village to save it. AP, I like your Vietnam analogy. Remember “Apocalypse Now” when Colonel Bill Kilgore Armored Cav came in and cleaned up the tranquil beautiful villiage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcT2x90WaPY
Anyway back to the greenies and their daydreams. I have made that point before AP on the destruction of the environment that needs to be undertaken to create a shiny new greenie AltE world. These numb-nuts want BAU without the Carbon. Sounds like having cake and eating it. These folks want a tech-no-fix when technology is the problem. They think we can flush all that fossil fuel crude down the stool and start over.
Sorry, guys, what you see is what you get. The best we can do is find niche places for some of this great technology but forget an AltE BAU aint-gonna-happen. I am all for the low tech, low cost, low performance, dispersed, and robustly reliable AltE technology. Let’s create as much as we can before the engine of growth dies. We only have a few more years. Let’s quit building Olympic stadiums and event sites and start going all-in on the type of AltE I described above.
Greenies you are deceiving so many people with your grand fantasies. I am pointing at the AGW folks too. AGW folks quit friggen telling people we can go AltE BAU and save the climate. If you would say we can use some AltE while BAU dies then go 18th century renewables with human power, animal power, biomass, and renewable mechanical technology then I will give you my vote.
AGW folks you need to tell the sheeples that many will die in the power down for lack of food, medical care, conflict, and a hundred other diverse reasons. You need to tell the sheeples the normal life they now know will be over. The comforts and the thrills will be history. You might also mention that we may not make it through this unless we all cooperate and with a unified effort and power through to a new epoch post carbon. Tell the sheeples there is one complication and that is all those industrial age poisons and WMD’s very well might lead to our extinction. AGW folks and your greenie sidekicks that is the honesty behind AltE’s new world.
apneaman on Tue, 20th Jan 2015 4:21 pm
I fear our responses to the shrinking pie may cause more damage than anything in the short term. TPTB are trying to hang on to an impossible way of life. Their main response has been oppression at home and abroad. The response of the citizens that are still counted as one of the shrinking number of “Haves” is to ignore, victim blame, deny and support the oppression and austerity measures. It will not work. For those already thrown under the bus, the response is ever growing anger leading to violence. It will not work either. Even if we created a more just conditions, they will not stop the pie from shrinking, let alone make it bigger. The have nots ranks grow daily while the haves shrink. Simply do a news search for “Nationalists” or “Protests” and see the number of countries that come up. It’s growing. I see many similarities to the nationalistic movements of the early 20th century. Except today there are nukes and skilled people from many different countries who can cause major damage with a keyboard and internet connection. Energy shortages and climate change on top of it all are perfectly described by the military as “force multipliers”. “A Perfect Storm” is a much overused phrase but we really are about to be in one. I believe all it would take to start the dominoes is for one country with a major economy to crash. Brazil is looking like a strong candidate on most fronts.
Kenz300 on Thu, 22nd Jan 2015 12:06 am
Electric / hybrid technology and battery technology continues to improve every year……
The first/second generation of the Iphone was really cool too but the next generations were much better……….. and sold a lot more
The next generation of electric/hybrid cars, batteries and charging stations will all improve the owners experience and sales will continue to grow.
It is time to end the oil monopoly on transportation fuels. Climate Change is real…… We can deal with the cause (fossil fuels) or we will deal with the impact of Climate Change.
GregT on Thu, 22nd Jan 2015 12:37 am
Kenz,
Electric, hybrid, and battery technologies are all adding to the impacts of Climate Change, they are not reducing them. Yes we can deal with the cause (fossil fuels), but as long as we pursue
the technologies that you continue to promote, the more fossil fuels we will burn, and the closer we will get to a catastrophic runaway greenhouse event.
You have been a big advocate of population control, and an advocate of environmental stewardship, but you continue to promote the very things that have caused all of our problems to begin with.
More human technologies are not the solution to the problems caused by human technologies.