Peak Oil and the socio-economic impact of depleting fossil fuel resources

8 Comments on "Peak Oil and the socio-economic impact of depleting fossil fuel resources"

Northest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:39 pm 



Peak Oil is going mainstream!!

Moments ago I found this link on Yahoo top-of-page:

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-dangerous-is-the-oil-crisis-2015-1

That is a link to Gail Tverberg’s latest post, title “Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16?” on her blog.

Except, the credit at the bottom of the Yahoo article attributes OilPrice dot com as the originator: “This article originally appeared at OilPrice.com. Copyright 2015.” Which of course is incorrect since the article originally appeared on Gail’ blog.

Is the truth beginning to seep out into the public domain?

Dredd on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 5:37 am 



So, which one played the violin and which one played the trombone? 🙂

Paraphrasing: “Peak finite resource is when the recovery rate of that resource reaches its maximum, then declines to never reach that maximum rate again.

It is not how much is left, nor is it always at 50% …”

Very clear and well said.

Bandits on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 7:52 am 



I listed to it. It’s quite good. It would be “preaching to the quire” for a most of us but to hear it from such articulate and respected pundits makes the listen worthwhile.

bobinget on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 7:57 am 



Thanks for making this hour accessible, editor.

One wishes the interview addressed contemporary
issues of “oil (price) wars’ we are currently enduring.
Note; the net cast is dated early November.

Cheap gasoline has done exactly what was expected by seat of the pants economists.
US motorists are driving more Not fewer miles.
this link is from August, the latest available.
(oil’s price decline began June 2014)

FHWA 30-14
Friday, August 29, 2014
Contact: Doug Hecox
Tel: 202-366-0660

New Data Show U.S. Driving at Highest Level in Six Years

Nearly Three Trillion Miles Traveled Over Last 12 Months
Supports Call for Greater Transportation Investment

WASHINGTON – New estimates released today by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) show that American driving between July 2013 and June 2014 is at levels not seen since 2008, fueling calls for greater investment in highways that must bear growing volumes of traffic.

“More people driving means our economy is picking up speed,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “It also means we need to increase our investment in transportation to meet this demand, which is why Congress needs to pass the President’s four-year, $302 billion GROW AMERICA Act.”

According to FHWA’s “Traffic Volume Trends” report – a monthly estimate of American travel – drivers in June 2014 logged 261.7 billion vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), the highest level for any June since 2010 and the biggest single-month gain this year. It is the nation’s fourth consecutive month of VMT growth.

Americans drove more than 2.97 trillion miles between July 2013 and June 2014, the most recent month for which data are available. In the first half of 2014, drivers traveled 1.466 trillion miles – the largest since 2010 and the fourth-highest in the report’s 78-year-history.

Traffic in the Northeast – a bloc of nine states including New York and New Jersey – rose to nearly 37 billion VMT, a gain of .7 percent over the previous June, ending the region’s seven-month decrease in vehicle traffic.

The new data show the South Atlantic region – a bloc of eight states stretching from Delaware to Florida, and including the District of Columbia– experienced the biggest regional single-month increase at 2 percent more VMT than the previous June.

At 4.5 percent more VMT than the previous June, Washington, D.C., led the nation with the largest single-state increase followed closely by Tennessee, who had a 3.7 percent gain that month.

“These data are critical to helping the nation’s leaders make informed decisions about critical infrastructure investments,” said Acting Federal Highway Administrator Gregory Nadeau. “To ensure our roads, bridges and tunnels can keep pace with the demands of the American public, greater investment is needed – and the ‘GROW AMERICA’ Act is a step in the right direction.”

To review the VMT data in FHWA’s “Traffic Volume Trends” reports, which are based on information collected from more than 2,000 road-mounted sensors nationwide, visit http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm.

# # #

bobinget on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 8:10 am 



One important take-away surly will be that even at
$100, oil is far to cheap. Note in the DOT press release this period surveyed Ended June 2014
the very month oil price decline began.

I’ll bet anything, lower cost gasoline has inspired
higher milage driven then reported in this dated DOD report.

If fuels were more expensive ($10. a gallon as in Europe, for instance) we would have more respect for oil’s amazing energy potential. WE would drive fewer miles, we would find alternatives, we would
be healthier.

paulo1 on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 8:58 am 



@bobinget

re: “If fuels were more expensive ($10. a gallon as in Europe, for instance) we would have more respect for oil’s amazing energy potential.”

This has been my mantra for years and totally agree. I don’t know how much more my wife and I would reduce if this was the case as we try and limit our driving, now. However, I am sure we would use less, today a case in point. I am heading for town today because I ran out of glue in the middle of a big project. I will also do some errands. At $10.00 (compared to our $4.00+ here in Canada)we would put it on hold until we really had to go to town. Projects would slow down as required.

The run run buy buy economy would tank, but everyone would be healthier with less.

Davy on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 9:21 am 



Paulo, I want to believe that but the fact still remains can BAU be “degrowth-ed”. I have seen no evidence it can survive less i.e. prolonged contraction. I see no evidence yet of a plan B that can even mitigate less. I see every indication that the vast overshoot made possible by fossil fuels is something that cannot be adjusted to and still have the degree of comfort we do now. We may not even have the degree of comfort they had in the 19th century. Descent happens that way in that just refer to the Roman or the Mayans. A dark age must be entered and grown back out of it systematically. All ecosystems go through eventual decay and destruction.

In regards to your trip into town. I run into the same situation from time to time. I hate it because I ruin half a day by the time I head in shop drive home then resume my project. Then there is the unpleasant experience of traffic and store lines. I generally try to make one trip a week or two and spend maximum time hitting several places in one trip.

In conclusion I think Bobby can’t get past his corny thinking of systematic issues that high and low oil prices cause for an economy and society at the level we are at today. We are so far into disequilibrium the old thinking is not going to adequately forecast how these oil price fluctuations are going to play out. We were in a stable disequilibrium for years because of shale production, financial repression, and debt based growth policies. This is not sustainable and Bobby can’t get a handle around the fact we are nearing a tipping point.

GregT on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 12:32 pm 



“If fuels were more expensive we would have more respect for oil’s amazing energy potential. WE would drive fewer miles, we would find alternatives, we would be healthier.”

Absolutely correct Bob, but trying to get the masses to support such a move would be next to impossible, and we would need a dramatic change in how we view ourselves in the bigger picture. We would need to become ‘conservers’ rather than ‘consumers’.