Mounting debt for energy firms as oil prices plummet

41 Comments on "Mounting debt for energy firms as oil prices plummet"

markisha on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:33 am 



no problem.
Print baby print

Newfie on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 6:48 am 



Another round of Quantitative Easing (QE) and a Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) for shale oil producers and the problem is “fixed”. ROTFLMAO.

paulo1 on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 7:17 am 



The real news is the derivitive nightmare that awaits. Who knows how this financing was packaged up for investors, and how many times the same cow was sold?

That’s okay, there is ‘bail in’ now to save the investment banks. I hope this time around bankers are tarred and feathered and drowned in a gunny sack right after they hold the pen to re-sign Glass/Seagall. May they burn in hell.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 7:17 am 



Newf. you may laugh but it is conceivable shortages could lead to desperate actions.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 7:24 am 



Paulo, the bail-in’s we know are coming should be interesting because the only ones with enough money to successfully bail-in are the 1%ers. I suspect the real revolution will be from a fight between the upper 1%ers and the lower 1%ers. The upper 1%ers are dwarfed in size by the just beginning to be squeezed lower 1%ers. The battle will be played out with digital weapons and political manipulation. There are far more lobbyist representing the lower 1%ers than the small # of high net worth individuals. IMA these HNW plutocrats that travel the world not knowing borders will be the ones tar and feathered with large wealth destruction.

Go Speed Racer on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 8:05 am 



Isn’t there a deeper problem here. The rich people took all the money, leaving no money for nobody else.

But the rich people loan their money to the poor people. Like, loans it to the poor oil drilling business owner.

So because there’s only super-rich people who hoarded all the money (praise Jesus) everybody has to borrow from the rich, because nobody can self-finance. Isn’t that the real problem?

Then everybody go bankrupt soon as there is a downturn. At the end, one rich person has all the money. I think his name is John Boehner, or Kenneth Lay, Bernie Madoff, or John Roberts.

rockman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 8:08 am 



Excluding the banks exactly who do folks think will be getting bailed out by the feds? Much of the oil patch financing is done by private lenders. We may call them “mezzanine bankers” but they aren’t banks but private and public investment companies. Tradition bank loans to the oil patch often tend to be back by large amounts of solid collateral. Real oil patch bankers don’t tend to expose themselves to much risk…this wasn’t their first rodeo. LOL. OTOH the investment companies usually finance the riskier ventures. Which is why their returns can often exceed 20%. Which is also why they tend to get slaughtered during price busts.

Do I have to remind folks about the bust in NG prices back in ’08 when they crashed over 60% and 75% of the rigs drilling hz wells in shales have it up? And that Devon paid $40 milling in rig cancellation penalties so they could stop drilling the Haynesville Shale? So how much money did the govt give Devon to help them out? LOL.

Does anyone remember a $ of fed money used to bail out the tens of $billion lost by Devon et al and the investment companies during the ’09 bust? I don’t recall one instance. The folks who have thrown $billions at the shales are going to lose $billions. I see essentially no fed money coming to bail any of them out. The only break they’ll get from the govt is the ability to write those loses off on the tax returns.

shortonoil on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 8:39 am 



Without a swift rise in oil prices, a wave of write-downs and impairment charges could be about to wash over the industry.

This could be a bit of a problem! The Etp model, which historically has been 96.5% accurate, informs us that when there is a bounce in price it will be a maximum of $25/ barrel. From there it will again begin to decline into the 60s in 2016.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

Because petroleum is a foundational commodity, that is you can not run our present civilization without it, the 1% to the 99% will all go down together. The 99% will have no assets, and the 1% who hold their debt will find that it has become worthless. Even the assets that they foreclose upon will be of no value. Without the 99% to maintain them, they will fall into irreparable decay. This will occur as depletion continues its ride to the bottom, and the social structure unravels without the energy needed to keep it together.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 9:05 am 



Rock, I am in total agreement per BAU conditions regarding the oil patch financing you mention. I am opining in the abstract on possible future scenarios of near collapse. In this case extraordinary actions will be taken to ensure stability. As short mentioned oil is a foundational commodity. There is no choice but to produce it until the very end. If this situation occurs we will see some form of command economy. I imagine a hybrid of free markets and government control that may include martial law.

My family supplied equipment to the war effort in the 40’s. We mainly supplied generator engines for the merchant marine and dozers for work at the front. We were deemed a critical industry. It saved my grandfather a trip to the front. He was considered an essential business leader.

I see actions down the road that will ensure energy resources are produced one way of another. While I agree with short on the eventual complete destruction of economic value of oil through depletion I will mention this negative energy value can be made up for a time by in essence slave labor. Human labor and living standards will be sacrificed in the production of energy per the needs of government, business, and the military. Eventually this cannibalization of social fabric and infrastructure will end but a transition period is possible. I have no idea the time frame on these conditions if we even see them. I feel this situation is a real possibility if we manage to eke out an existence post BAU destruction and the end of globalism.

I will also mention a further angle on short’s point on 1%er wealth. In essence only physical wealth and physical wealth that can be maintained and controlled will be of essence. This could be as limited as strictly local and hands on physical wealth. Most digital wealth appears to face a limited life span going forward. This could be related to an unreliable grid and the financial destruction of wealth through debt default. Again a time frame is difficult to predict but the fragility of our hyper complex financial system coupled with energy depletion and systematic disequilibrium point to an end of digital wealth as we know it. This end of digital wealth at least to the degree of unsupportable debt and unfunded liabilities. These amounts are staggering and represent unreality of a fiat based system driven by debt and growth on a finite planet.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 10:53 am 



It isn’t just mounting debt for energy firms that is a major issue. I think “mounting debt” pretty well describes what national and global economies and businesses and consumers are all experiencing.

Let’s face it — the whole damn world is drowning in debt that can not and will not EVER be repaid.

How did it come to this?!

My guess is it boils down to exactly what shortonoil keeps hammering on, that is, the amount of net energy remaining from each barrel of oil produced has been steadily decreasing for a long, long time. Instead of trimming our consumption and lifestyles to keep pace with the declining energy, we (humans) instead borrowed from the future to maintain ourselves in the lifestyles to which we had become accustomed.

Borrowing from the future is what we have been doing for a long, long time and now we have reached a point in time where there is no physical collateral that hasn’t already been borrowed against (numerous times over, with multiple claims against it).

We have reached a point where there is NO FUTURE left to borrow from.

We are worse than flat ass broke.

There is no word or phrase than can possibly describe how catastrophically bankrupted, broke and destitute we have become.

Perhaps at some point, once THE FUTURE has collected all debts PLUS interest from what is left of the human race, a new word or phrase will be coined to describe just how pathetically morally and financially bankrupt we were before “the big payback”.

I don’t see how we can avoid the undescribable horror that awaits when Mother Nature and The Future pay us a visit to finally collect on our accumulated debts. I think I hear them knocking on the door right now…

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:11 am 



N/R, basically limits of growth and dimminishing returns with carrying capacity overshoot in quantity and quality. The quality is the high level of consumption represented by huge unfunded liabilities. All we are doing now is rolling over debt by extending and pretending.

Extend and pretend was a common practice when I was finance manger in the heavy equipment business. We generally just did that with good quality customers until we could sell it off to a finance company. BAU has no finance company to sell debt off to.

Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:25 am 



Davy
Newfie’s response of ROTFLMAO is perfectly acceptable to me. Should he feign concern and sympathy for the corns and sheep who ignored and mocked any and all warnings for decades? If Newfie is like most Doomers he has been mocked, considered a conspiracy theorist and all the rest of it. The situation is so fucking ABSURD, that ROTFL one’s ass off is a great way to help keep one’s sanity. I’d bet anything there will be plenty of corns and sheep ROTFLTAO when it all hits home, but it won’t be as a tonic to maintain sanity; quite the opposite me thinks.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:28 am 



Apneaman — Maybe we’ll need a new acronym: ROTFLTAOLAL

Rolling on the floor laughing their ass of LIKE A LUNATIC

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:53 am 



Ok, AP, put in that context and view point I am in agreement being a fellow doomer and lunatic. Mad laughter and crazy howls are enjoyable. I remember when I used to drink back on my other farm where the hoot owls screw chickens I would get drunk and late at night howl like a wolf. I need to do that sometime again but it’s hard to do properly except with 15 beers and a few shots of whiskey. A Full moons help and also coyotes howling nearby.

Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 12:10 pm 



Whatever it takes Davy;)
Don’t be surprised to see Doomers play the “told ya” card once in a while. Most of it is just blowing off years of frustration. People behave similarly when their team finally wins the championship after decades of sucking. Why would it be any different for anything else in life? It’s not completely unfounded and, like all Pyrrhic victories, will be short lived once new realties emerge.

Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 12:46 pm 



The Crash of 2015: Day 9

http://www.dailyimpact.net/2015/01/09/the-crash-of-2015-day-9/

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 12:47 pm 



Well AP, I know I am going to throw a “I told ya dumbasses so” to family and friends but of course in a loving way.

shortonoil on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 12:53 pm 



Eventually this cannibalization of social fabric and infrastructure will end but a transition period is possible.

The problem with transition is that it requires time to implement. The larger the structure to transition the longer the time frame required. As you say, we live in an extremely complex system. It is also massive by any historical comparison.

We have attempted to construct a time line based on real proven values, and have tried to avoid opinion, conjecture and hyperbole. Our reality based analysis indicates that the workable time frame for transition is much shorter than commonly accepted. Since unforeseen circumstances always appear in any new undertaking, in a system as huge as our present society, many such events can be expected to appear. These are likely to derail any attempts at transition that occur in a constrained time environment.

Our society has been conditioned to believe that the best outcome is the one that will occur. This positive thinking biases, while beneficial in a society of increasing prosperity, is likely to have derogatory implications during a period of extreme stress. Any student of wildlife can tell you that animals do not take chances. For them, chance taking too often results in fatality. For a society that has seen several centuries of increasing dominance over nature, due to our harnessing of the energy from fossil fuels, our propensity to view the future as the sky is the limit is likely to impede us choosing rational, common sense alternatives.

In light of that, any transition is likely to be the result of random fluctuations where the participates are fortune enough to survive. We have to conclude that what ever the future holds for mankind is most likely beyond our imagination!

Dredd on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 12:58 pm 



” … energy firms … ”

Doublespeak, like “toxic assets” (Propaganda Is A “Toxic Asset”).

Oil-Qaeda would not know “stable” from “firm” even if they were not psychopaths.

rockman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:01 pm 



Davy – That’s the thing about taking a “doomer state of mind”: it can be somewhat reassuring…for a time anyway. Long ago I read a story about a marine that got caught in an ambush. It quickly became obvious they were going to be overrun. And marines knew it was better to check out then be taken prisoner. So he said he resigned himself that death was coming very soon and certain. He was amazed at the complete sense of calm that overtook him. All the nightmares about getting zapped or stepping on mine instantly disappeared. He described it as an almost pleasant and comforting feeling.

And then suddenly some F-4’s started napping the area and he realized that even though the odds still weren’t very good he did have something of a chance. That’s when he gathered up his unit and got the hell out of there with most of them alive. He said that during his entire tour he was never as scared as he was when he was bailing out at that time. And something during the process he pissed all over himself.

The moral is that even after accepting the end is near if even the faintest glimmer of survival appears most will claw at it with every bit of strength they can muster. So even when most of the country finally realizes the true depth of the predicament they’re in just the slightest bit of bullsh*t optimism will give them something to cling to IMHO. I doubt I’ll still be kicking when that day comes. Too bad…I always fantasized about having a parade thrown in my honor. LOL

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:03 pm 



Agreed short, my idea of transition is massive disruption and destruction with the strong managing the limited transition period and the many weak sheeple the cannon fodder. I fully agree with your comment otherwise.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:10 pm 



I like the story Rock. I will remember it hopefully if the mad max marauders target the farm for rape and pillage someday. If luck side steps me and death is near that would be a nice state of mind.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:10 pm 



“our propensity to view the future as the sky is the limit is likely to impede us choosing rational, common sense alternatives.”

Not only that, but the massive propaganda campaign being waged to convince as many dupes as possible that “all is well” keeps many millions of people making decisions based on actual facts.

The link posted above by Apneaman is I think a very good one, but fails to make one solid point. And that is, as fracking companies and junk bonds and the whole chain reaction of destruction reaches a critical point, not only investor confidence but Joe and Jane Sixpack confidence will get sucked down in the same swirling vortex of collapse. We WILL reach a point where no amount of propaganda can hold back the flood of panic that will ensue. That moment is rapidly approaching, IMO.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:39 pm 



rockman — Great story! I can relate. When I was flying Search and Rescue helicopter mission while in the U.S. Navy the hydraulic system went out just as we were passing over a tall peak in the Santa Ana Mountain range outside of now closed El Toro Marine Corps Base. I was in the co-pilot seat, and the alarms starting blaring through our headsets, the dashboard lights all went off, and the helicopter started slowly spinning downward into a rocky ravine a couple thousand feet below. I immediately realized that “this is it — The End”. I waited calmly while the pilot jerked madly at the controls trying to get a burst of hydraulic fluid into the system. I just waited calmly for death. Then, suddenly, the helicopter jerked upward fast a hundred feet or so — the hydraulic system must have gotten a burst of juice in the lines. We started falling downward again, but the pilot was able to jerk the helicopter over to a short narrow finger of rock outcropping and set it down hard. For a moment, the helicopter teetered back and forth, threatening to fall off the narrow rock one way or the other. And THAT is when the fear hit. Short story — we managed to carefully crawl out of the helicopter and climb up the rock to a safe vantage point, my adrenaline rushing and fear pulsating.

I’ve been in a similar situation several other times. Each time, faced with death, I simply became calm, cool, rational. Not everybody around me reacted that way — some went beserk, screaming and flailing about.

One thing I do know, and that is, I have no fear of death. But, like you, I want to stick around long enough to at least see the big fireworks show. Hang tough, rockman, I don’t think we will have to wait a whole lot longer.

Bandits on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:44 pm 



Pessimists unless they get disappointed for disappointments sake usually have an advantage in that they always expect the worst so being wrong is an advantage.

As Senator John McCain said when he was a prisoner in Vietnam the first to die were the optimists, the expectation of being rescued and then being disappointed over the years wore them down.

Those that expected and dealt with the harsh realities fared better.
So I guess the moral is, prepare and plan for the worst but hope for the best.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:41 pm 



NR, when I was fist soloing as a pilot I got myself into a bad situation with weather over a forested area in Central MO. There was nowhere to land only endless forest. I should never have taken this flight I barely had any hours built up and the weather was marginal. A squall line was approaching and I was lost and experiencing almost uncontrollable turbulence. I was in a small Cessna 150.

I can to this day remember the panic in my throat. It was the weirdest feeling I mean right at my adams apple ready to burst out of me like an alien. I had my faithful Blue healer dog with me and he was scared shitless. Long story short I told myself I am gone if I panic. I resigned myself to dying and decided to use my head.

This was the days before GPS and fancy avionics. I eventually located a highway and with luck I recognized it and knew an airport was near. I barely got to the airport before the squall line pushed through. Not to end the story there because when I landed I got out of the aircraft and my hair started to stand up and a huge bolt of lightning hit near me almost paralyzing me in fear. The calm feeling I had was after I got indoors and then walked to a nearby liquor store and bought a 12 pack and some skoal.

Seth on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:47 pm 



Don’t forget the Stockdale paradox….

Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:54 pm 



fist soloing as a pilot? C’mon Davy this is supposed to be a family blog man. That must take some kinda superior freakish coordination 😉

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:07 pm 



Davy — I can relate! But if it had been me in that same situation, I’d have gone for a bottle of whiskey and big cigar instead. 🙂

Oh, man, the stories we could tell…

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:11 pm 



Glad you are in a better mood today AP. I was worried about you the other day with your anti social behavior.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:25 pm 



Davy,

Thanks for the story. I can completely relate. You had me laughing so hard I nearly pissed myself.

Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 5:05 pm 



You were right the other day, I woke up in a foul mood. I never use that term “anti social behavior”. It’s a label designed for control, just like many of the sociology, psychology, psychiatry terms. Intentionally vague. Same with positivism/brightsiding. “Stop being so negative!” They might have some explanatory power, but like most science it’s been hijacked to maintain the status quo and shut down any and all dissent. Why do you think Americans gobble up 75% of the anti-depressants/anxiety meds in the world? What were being told is it’s not the society/system that is fucked up – it’s you, the individual. Look at the DSM-5. You could diagnose almost anyone with a mental disorder with that thing. How convenient. The Soviets use to send malcontents to the Gulag for psychiatric reasons. Were more subtle, we have a voluntary pharmacological fix. Take the pills so you can struggle along in an oppressive meaningless culture or speak the truth and take your chances. Try it at work and see how it works. I have. Very costly. The wife was not impressed. Think the family is a harsh judge of the Doomer/truth teller? Hard to pay the bills if you ask too many questions. Like hey is what were doing even legal or ethical? Shouldn’t it be considered anti social to make obscene amounts of money on tar sands, fracking, etc, knowing full well that it will leave a enormous financial, health and environmental burdens on society for generations to come? Look at all the profiteers who abscond and left many super-fund sites that people who weren’t even born at the time are paying for today. How long will the concrete on capped wells last? Who pays for it when they fail and they will all fail some day?
Being an asshole and losing my temper from time to time when making comments is not actually anti social behavior. Some of us are born with more challenging temperaments. The venom in my comment to you the other day was uncalled for. I apologize. What I was trying to get across was that I hear too many references to being wealthy and it’s hard to ignore when the 1% own the greater share of the responsibility for getting us here and a great deal more for blocking any and all attempts to a necessary change away from BAU. Maybe I’m just an antidisestablishmentarian. Bet they got a pill for that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_abuse_of_psychiatry_in_the_Soviet_Union

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 5:15 pm 



Apneaman — I saw your venomous post to Davy yesterday and I thought “gee, that’s not the Davy I have come to know on this forum.” But Davy isn’t paying me for protection, so I let it slide… 🙂

Everybody gets in a bad mood sometimes. No problem.

Hey, here’s an article I just read on ZH that describes in loathsome detail just what the 1% have done to get their wealth, and what they’re doing to keep it, and exactly why they’re going to lose it.

In case you (or anybody) is interested:

Empirical Proof Of The Giant Con

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-09/empirical-proof-giant-con

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 5:41 pm 



Well, AP, I can relate to your post. I being too intense for my own good and mal-adjusted to my conservative 1%er family have spent my life either misunderstood or disapproved of.

Ap, I was trying to be funny before about the anti-social behavior so don’t take it personal. I was just trying to be friendly to a fellow doomer. We were both in the wrong the other day with our bad attitudes. I bow up sometimes like an idiot then cool down and feel stupid. There are others on this site that keep their cool and that shows more maturity. You would think being in my 50’s I would show maturity more.

Since we are a minority as doomers we need to stick together as best we can despite our often geopolitical differences. On the doom side all of us are on the same page which is amazing. Personally I think the fact that every doomer on this site is dovetailing on a very similar message has to have significance. So anyway AP screw the bastards if they can’t take a joke is what I always say. Don’t let people get you down because you are honest and refuse to play sane in an insane world. Give em Hell and don’t weaken!

Perk Earl on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 3:10 am 



Great thread. I was doing stuff all day and missed out – dang!

“So even when most of the country finally realizes the true depth of the predicament they’re in just the slightest bit of bullsh*t optimism will give them something to cling to IMHO.”

As a perfect example of that Rock, the minister of propaganda for the Nazi’s in WWII, Goebbels, gave rallying speeches in Munich after it had been bombed relentlessly, just prior to the end of the war and was still able to get people revved up to the idea that the Nazi’s would still win!

I think we can see this too with many of these articles that claim peak oil is dead, energy independence is still within reach, we’re exporting oil now, etc. They’re intended to rally the citizens into a positive outlook to take out loans, act in a BAU manner.

Perk Earl on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 3:23 am 



To add to those near death experiences, mine was not piloting a craft, but instead surfing in on a canoe. I know real stupid. I was 14 and my mother somehow talked me into getting inside and wearing a life-jacket. I just wanted to sit on top in case it rolled over.

Well on the first wave it rolled over, sank to the bottom and the water pressure firmly pushed it into the sand. The life jacket floated me up to the bottom of the upside down canoe. In the pitch black with very little air in my lungs I panicked, flailed about, sucked some water into my mouth, then what is an involuntary reaction the body blocked the water from getting to my lungs, and I blacked out.

Then I had a memory flash back with a commentary on my impact to other people’s lives. The last memory was from about minus 1 year, laying on blanket watching my mother sitting across the room talking to someone. No strength to even do anything, not even crawl.

Everything went fuzzy white and it felt like I was going somewhere real nice. In fact it felt so good it was hard to snap myself out of it, but then I was able to get my eyes open. The canoe had lifted a little and some light was coming in, so I picked up one side, then wrestled with the life jacket to get it off because it was wrapped around one of the cross bars, and stood up above the water line and took in a huge gulp of air.

Not been scared of death since, but grateful for every day of this wonderful life in the meaty curve of the oil age.

Davy on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 7:39 am 



Perk, It is nice to hear others near death experiences as a way to feel togetherness. I am finding this a common thread with doomers. We doomers seem to have come near the end and because of this it allows us to face the end of BAU easier. This is just an observation but it is ringing true the more I learn about you other doomers here. In some way this forum is a therapy session. I know some hate this and complain about our off-subject issues. Yet, we are discussing life and doom. All doomers walk around with a deliberation that reflects prepping for doom. It is a way of life much like a musician has songs ringing in his head all day long.

Perk Earl on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 11:52 pm 



“We doomers seem to have come near the end and because of this it allows us to face the end of BAU easier.”

You may have something there, Davy. Maybe that experience leads to the independent mind is at work. Also the scientific mind. We agree often, but then again sometimes we don’t, so we each developed that whatever it is to analyze situations without using other people to guide our view, which many of the masses do. They want to know what other people and MSM news services think to make up their minds.

The fun thing about the internet is how many people local to us can we banter back and forth about this topic in this kind of detail? I’ve only bumped into one person locally that was like minded and that was my dentist of all people, and those conversations were between drilling and other dental sounds. So I suppose we are a rare breed.

GregT on Sun, 11th Jan 2015 12:47 am 



Davy,

Hopefully I didn’t offend you with my laughter. You just brought back many memories for me as an inexperienced pilot. I have found myself in many situations where I didn’t think that I was going to make it out alive. I learned though, and from time to time I still find myself repeating the phrase; FLY THE F-IN PLANE.

Davy on Sun, 11th Jan 2015 5:30 am 



Greg, I knew a fellow pilot would appreciate the humor. All pilots sooner or later know the sinking feeling of what it is like to be up there and wish they were down there.

Davy on Sun, 11th Jan 2015 6:57 am 



Perk, I think we would be surprised how many more local people might be inclined to see these issues if they were only able to. Then of course there are the majority that for a variety of reasons just are not capable. This is really an educated and academic exercise that requires discipline and daily research. It is too easy to read an article and understand some of it then move on to the football scores. These topics we deal with here are think-tank stuff that require constant attention and research.

Yet, Perk, you are right it is the internet that brings our types together. I am not expressing superiority here. In fact I could be stupid to be living the doom and prep I am doing. There is no guarantee I have any better chance than others. I think personally I have increased my odds some but maybe at the expense of the happy bliss of the ignorant.

I enjoy the academic exercise. I enjoy prepping. I need those of you here that are on my level. I can count two fingers of one hand those of my friends and family that can or do deal with these topics. If I am on here so much it is because I see the end near and feel we are in an epic struggle of survival. We just don’t realize how near it is. I hope I am wrong. I appreciate those of you here who discount my message of doom. This is serious business and I should not be deceiving myself or others I have the answers. I have just not seen a message of hope yet. The corns are failing miserably with their message.