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Page added on January 8, 2015
Towards a more sustainable world
In just 60 years, global population, consumption and pollution have all more than doubled. In another 60 years, in 2075, our 15-year-old grandchildren will be the same age as I am now. What do we want the world to look like in 2075? The first step to creating a more sustainable future is to create a vision for that future. The overarching goals would be to have world peace with pollution and climate change under control. What are the strategies that could achieve those goals?
We would start by accelerating strategies to bring global CO2 emissions from today’s 33 billion tonnes per year down to the 26 billion tonnes per year that scientists says is necessary to keep global warming below a tolerable 2 degrees C.
In electricity production, coal would be replaced by a combination of hydro, wind, solar and nuclear energy, optimized for each country. Some coal would still be used in the poorest countries and for metallurgical purposes in making steel.
Natural gas would be preserved for heating energy-efficient buildings and making fertilizers for growing food.
Transportation would be powered by a mix of electric, hydrogen and hybrid gasoline/electric vehicles optimized for each country, with the electricity coming from clean sources. Oil would be preserved for petrochemicals, and fuel for air transportation, and heavy equipment.
To make all of that possible, there must be major changes in the underlying fundamentals of global population growth and global economic growth. There will always be richer and poorer, but the global economy would be more equalized to provide a more decent life for all.
The economic reality is that when the 33 countries with GDP per capita above $33,000 (Spain) are doing well, they tend to lift all other countries. But those 33 countries would lead by example by directing more of their wealth toward clean energy and less-polluting activity, and less toward conspicuous consumption.
Global average GDP per capita would double from today’s $13,000 (China, Columbia, South Africa) with 110 developing countries below $13,000, to $26,000 (today’s Portugal, Russia).
To achieve that, world population would peak at 10 billion, instead of 13 billion where current birth rates would take us. Birth rates in developing countries would be reduced to the replacement level with an average of 2.1 births per woman, matching today’s rates in developed countries.
The forces of nature, that have produced five ice ages with warming periods in between, will continue to grind on slowly but surely. But mankind would know that we did the best that we could do.
We are making progress, but will 2015 be a year that accelerates progress along that kind of a path?
15 Comments on "Towards a more sustainable world"
Davy on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 7:03 am
I am trying to figure out the PO man behind the curtains that posts these comedic articles intension. Is it satire or is it a belief in these ideas. Everything about this article is greenie liberal delusional. This article is hopium. I wish I could believe in some of it any of it really. There is no use going in and picking it apart it would just be redundancy from my normal spiel. The corn porn optimism comedy is on all sides of the equation. Soon all this delusion will be swept away by reality.
Makati1 on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 7:38 am
The hopium fairy tales have been coming out like flies on day old dead fish lately. Must be an indication that the cliff is near. Beep! Beep!
J-Gav on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 9:39 am
What’s this? Davy and Makati on the same wavelength? Wow, 2015 is already shaping up to be a special year.
By the way, I agree with both of you about the hopium.
Davy on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 10:00 am
Ya Gav, if Mak and I could only stick to doom and forget the geopolitics we would be sloppy kissing buddies.
Apneaman on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 10:28 am
The forces of nature have also produced a dozen extinction events. Everyone of them involving increased co2.
Apneaman on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 10:41 am
I wonder how much of this we can sustain? We don’t even have to drill for natural gas anymore because the good earth provides more than we could want. Way more.
Active ocean methane release zones:
1. ESAS
2. Laptev
3. Kara
4. Svalbard
5. Nares Strait
6. East Coast US Continental Shelf
7. West Coast US Washington and Oregon
Seafloor melting releases giant plume of methane off Washington coast
http://dailyuw.com/archive/2015/01/08/science/seafloor-melting-releases-giant-plume-methane-washington-coast#.VK6hXHtlT6M
Mark Ziegler on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 12:48 pm
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150107131401.htm
green_achers on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 1:26 pm
That’s just sad. He’s older than I am, and writing something that would have made sense in 1970.
penury on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 2:56 pm
Sustainability, according to most is constant growth in everything. Yeast in a petri dish R US. There is something in humans which blinds them to the fact that nothing lasts forever.
GregT on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 4:16 pm
From Mark’s link above:
“third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80% of current coal reserves globally should remain in the ground and not be used before 2050 if global warming is to stay below the 2°C target agreed by policy makers, according to new research by the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources.”
That should be a wake-up call by itself, but what the article doesn’t mention?
A 2 degree C temperature rise gives us a 50/50 chance of causing a runaway greenhouse event. A 1 degree rise gives us a 70/30 chance.
As it stands right now, it looks like we aren’t going to beat the odds of a .87 degree rise.
Makati1 on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 7:22 pm
But Davy, geopolitics is what makes it interesting. We both know the way the story goes, but the twists and turns will determine if any of us actually get to the end of the story alive. I am trying to be more mellow, and to ignore the Empire as much as one can while commenting on world events.
BTW: I had an opportunity to visit the Bahamas in the 60s when I belonged to a travel club that had a medium sized jet. I got one glimpse of how the 1% live when we could take off anytime and return anytime. But that was over 45 years ago. I’m sure it is different now. The Bahamas were beautiful then.
Davy on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 7:43 pm
I agree Mak and I am trying to mellow myself. Maybe we can manage a truce on the geopolitical and a cooperative effort on doomism.
Yea Mak, private jets are the cat’s meow. I don’t care to fly commercial. To be honest I would rather not leave the farm. I am obsessive about detail. Whenever I leave the farm it disturbs my well honed routine. Yet, my dad is not in good health so I feel I should be with him. Anyway if I could eliminate private jets i would.
The Bahamas are a paradise as I am sure the Philippeans are. Enjoy
GregT on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 10:40 pm
I for one, would really like to see a truce called between the two of you guys. Try to rise above the flag waving. You both have much to contribute here at PO.com. I’m betting that you have more in common with each other than you both realize.
Makati1 on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:15 am
LOL GregT, it appears that we do. I too hate to go back to the States for much the same reasons as Davy. I hate commercial air travel these days, and the interrogation I sometimes get when I go thru immigration at the US port of entry. I travel coach for financial reasons and don’t look forward to the twenty some hours spent in the coffin seats.
I go back because my mom is still alive at 88 and also in poor health. I know her time is short and she enjoys my visits, even though I call her every two weeks. It disrupts my routine here in the PS and costs more every year.
We do seem like a group of “friends” here at PO although we have to deal with a few retarded (uninformed?) members … ^_^
Dredd on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:50 am
Oil-Qaeda, upon confusing life with death, has gone into full on propaganda mode (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death) – 2, quoting “Carbon Counterattack”).
The main stream media is their new “fracking” rig.