Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on December 18, 2014
Will Population Growth End in This Century?
The human population nearly tripled from 2.5 billion people in 1950 to 7.3 billion today and will continue growing through 2070, according to two recent demographic projections. After that, demographers disagree on whether populations will begin to shrink or continue to rise into the next century, write Worldwatch Institute Senior Fellow Robert Engelman and Research Assistant Yeneneh Terefe in the Institute’s latest Vital Signs Online article (www.worldwatch.org).
Two population projections—-one from the United Nations Population Division, the other from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)—- agree on how population has grown until now. But their future scenarios document a breakdown in consensus.
U.N. demographers rely on a methodology that applies past behavior and expert opinion about the future to assign quantified probabilities to various population outcomes. Defying a widespread media and public perception that a stationary world population of 9 billion in 2050 is a near certainty, the U.N. analysts report that the most likely long-term future is for continued growth into the 22nd century.
Demographers associated with IIASA, based in Laxenburg, Austria, however, differ with this analysis. They foresee world population peaking around 2070 at 9.4 billion people and then gradually shrinking to 8.9 billion by the century’s end.
The disagreement between these two respected groups of population researchers lies in their varying assumptions, mostly regarding two topics: Africa and the future of education. The U.N. demographers point to recent surveys showing that human fertility (defined as the average number of children that women in a population give birth to over their lifetimes) is not falling in some countries as earlier projections had assumed they would.
The IIASA demographers, by contrast, focus largely on educational trends. In every region of the world, including Africa, the proportion of young people enrolled in school has generally been rising. and these rates are likely to continue to rise, the analysts argue. Because even moderately high levels of educational attainment are associated with reductions in fertility, fertility even in high-fertility countries is likely to fall more than current fertility trends on their own suggest, the demographers reason.
Two Australian environmental scientists, Corey J. A. Bradshaw and Barry W. Brook, recently published another set of population projections—- with a twist. They add scenarios in which humanity experiences increases in the deaths of children due to climate change or outright demographic catastrophes due to “global pandemic or war.” In their most extreme scenario, 6 billion people die in the early 2040s, in which case human population would decline to about 5 billion by 2100.
The Australian analysts are non-demographers engaging in a one-off thought exercise. But the significant differences among the various projections tell us something important about population and the human future. Despite general perceptions that demographers confidently forecast future population, no one knows when population will stop growing or the level at which it will peak. Moreover, the future of population growth may respond to decisions made today, so ideally these decisions would support a reduced incidence of unintended pregnancy (now about 40 percent of all pregnancies globally) rather than allow environmental and social conditions to deteriorate until death rates reverse their historic decline.
For more information and to obtain a complimentary copy of “Will Population Growth End in This Century?” please contact Gaelle Gourmelon.
11 Comments on "Will Population Growth End in This Century?"
penury on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 1:59 pm
“Will Population Growth End in This Century? My reply would be” Yes, or No, it depends” there are 85 years left in the century and I don”t know what I will have for breakfast next tues. Another exercise in “How many Angels can dance ob the head of a pin”,
J-Gav on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 2:23 pm
My answer: Yes, one way or another but I would say the “extreme scenario” mentioned looks a lot more likely than any of the others in this bland article.
noobtube on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 4:39 pm
It is kind of infuriating seeing American/Australian degenerates deciding the future of Africa, Asia, or any other place.
These scumbags can’t run their own countries, yet want to tell others how to live.
J-Gav on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 4:41 pm
Forgot to get those meds down your neck again, Noob?
GregT on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 6:25 pm
It should be quite obvious by now J-Gav. The noob has refused phycological help, as badly as he needs it.
Kind of sad really, to see somebody so filled with hatred. His life probably could have been so much more fulfilling.
Oh well, we all must sleep in the beds we make.
Apneaman on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 8:02 pm
I prefer noob un-medicated and real. I think we have doped up enough people. He may be completely over the top, but his anger, like many others, is not without foundation. Imagine when we get major supply disruptions in N America and millions of “functional” consumer/employees no longer have their FDA approved corporate tonic. We might see millions of people awake from their pharmacological comas in noob like fashion. Should be interesting for the government and elites when they can no longer count on chemical repression to keep the plebes docile.
JuanP on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 9:29 pm
“The U.N. demographers point to recent surveys showing that human fertility (defined as the average number of children that women in a population give birth to over their lifetimes) is not falling in some countries as earlier projections had assumed they would.”
This tidbit is based on real life data, unlike most of the BS on this article, and is part of a worrying trend that has been going on for about a decade. Global fertility is not declining as forecasted. Why am I not surprised? 😉
Makati1 on Thu, 18th Dec 2014 11:24 pm
Apneaman, I agree with you about Noob. Over the top but just saying what many are already thinking in the non-Western part of the world. You know, that other 6 billion people who share the world’s resources.
With the US consuming most of the world’s production of meds, both legal and not, the rage that is going to burst forth when those meds are not available, will make hell seem calm and cool by comparison. All it will take is the collapse of the system and rage of all kinds will be common. Suicides will explode. Murder, rape, beatings, riots, you name it, in a country where firearms outnumber citizens.
The Us was the number one consumer of anti-psychotics in 2010, and I bet that number has increased in the last 4 years. Also number one in dementia drugs and overall drug use. Number two was France with highest use being for cancers.
Ralph on Fri, 19th Dec 2014 6:43 am
For population to peak, we need fewer babies born each day than people of any age dying.
Babies are being born at a rate of 4.3 per second. People are dying 1.77 per second.
The world population is already in deep overshoot. To reverse the current rate of population growth we would need people to die at rate of 6.83 per second, or nearly four times faster than today.
Kenz300 on Fri, 19th Dec 2014 9:25 am
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it…….
Snip it or wrap it up………
Apneaman on Fri, 19th Dec 2014 12:36 pm
Makati1
noobs rage would be expressed much differently if we were all in the same room together. As for all the horrible things you described, they are already happening on a daily basis. There will be an increase, but we will also see many other reactions to collapse that are not so dystopian. It will be a mixed bag depending on local circumstances and access to basics. Hungry people are desperate people. I just read about this horrible incident in Australia.
Stabbings in Cairns, Australia leave 8 children dead, woman injured
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/stabbings-in-cairns-australia-leave-8-children-dead-woman-injured-1.2878746