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Page added on November 16, 2014
ISIS 7x Bigger Than West Believes
Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President Massoud Barzani said in an exclusive interview with The Independent on Sunday that “I am talking about hundreds of thousands of fighters because they are able to mobilise Arab young men in the territory they have taken.”
He estimates that Isis rules a third of Iraq and a third of Syria with a population of between 10 and 12 million living in an area of 250,000 square kilometres, the same size as Great Britain. This gives the jihadis a large pool of potential recruits.
Proof that Isis has created a large field army at great speed is that it has been launching attacks against the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Iraqi army close to Baghdad at the same time as it is fighting in Syria. “They are fighting in Kobani,” said Mr Hussein. “In Kurdistan last month they were attacking in seven different places as well as in Ramadi [capital of Anbar province west of Baghdad] and Jalawla [an Arab-Kurdish town close to Iranian border]. It is impossible to talk of 20,000 men or so.”
The high figure for Isis’s combat strength is important because it underlines how difficult it will be eliminate Isis even with US air strikes. In September, the CIA produced an estimate of Isis numbers which calculated that the movement had between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters. The underestimate of the size of the force that Isis can deploy may explain why the US and other foreign governments have been repeatedly caught by surprise over the past five months as IS inflicted successive defeats on the Iraqi army, Syrian army, Syrian rebels and Kurdish peshmerga.
The US and its allies are beginning to take on board the obstacles to fulfilling President Obama’s pledge to degrade and destroy Isis. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, arrived in Baghdad on Friday in a surprise visit. He said he wanted “to get a sense from our side about how our contribution is going”. Earlier in the week, he told Congress that to defeat Isis an efficient army of 80,000 men would be necessary. Few in Iraq believe that the regular army is up to the task, despite winning a success last week by retaking the refinery town of Baiji and lifting the siege of the refinery, the largest in Iraq.
In a wide-ranging interview, Mr Hussein spelled out the new balance of power in Iraq in the wake of the Islamic militants’ summer offensive and the military re-engagement of the US. The Kurdistan Regional Government now faces Isis units along a 650-mile front line cutting across northern Iraq between Iran and Syria. Mr Hussein said that the US air intervention had enabled the Kurds to hold out when the unexpected Isis assault in August defeated the peshmerga and came close to capturing the Kurdish capital Irbil: “They were fighting with a strategy of fear that affected the morale of everybody, including the peshmerga.”
As well as terrifying its opponents by publicising its own atrocities, Isis had developed an effective cocktail of tactics that includes suicide bombers, mines, snipers and use of US equipment captured from the Iraqi army such as Humvees, artillery and tanks. To combat them, Mr Hussein says the Kurds need Apache helicopters and heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery.
The Kurdish leaders are now much more relaxed about Isis because they have a US guarantee of their security. The grim experience of the US in seeing the collapse of the government and army in Baghdad, which the Americans had fostered at vast expense, also works in favour of the Kurds.
Holding on: Kurdish chief of staff Fuad Hussein with John Kerry in June AFP/Getty
Mr Hussein does not like to talk about it today, but the Kurdistan Regional Government got a nasty surprise in August when it asked the Turkish government for help in stopping Isis only to be told Ankara planned no immediate assistance. It was only then that the Kurds turned to Iran and the US, both of which immediately acted to prevent a complete victory by the Islamic militants. Iran sent some officers, military units and artillery while the US started air strikes on 8 August.
Mr Hussein speculates that the CIA and US intelligence agencies may only have been speaking about “core” fighters in claiming that the jihadis had at most 31,500 men under arms. But the fighting over the past five months has shown that Isis has become a formidable military force. “We are talking about a state that has a military and ideological basis,” said Mr Hussein, “so that means they want everyone to learn how to use a rifle, but they also want everybody to have training in their ideology, in other words brainwashing.”
A sign of the military professionalism of Isis is the speed with which they learned to use captured US tanks, artillery and other heavy equipment captured after the fall of Mosul on 10 June. The same thing happened in Syria where Isis captured Russian-made arms which it rapidly started using. The most likely explanation for this is that IS’s ranks contain many former Iraqi and Syrian soldiers whose skills Isis has identified. Mr Hussein says that the peshmerga has been impressed during the fighting by Isis’s training and discipline.
“They will fight until death, and are dangerous because they are so well-trained,” said Mr Hussein. “For instance, they have the best snipers, but to be a good sniper you need not only training on how to shoot, but discipline in staying put for up to five hours so you can hit your target.”
There is supporting evidence for Mr Hussein’s high estimate for Isis numbers. A study by the National Security Adviser’s office in Baghdad before the Isis offensive showed that, when 100 jihadis entered a district, they would soon recruit between five and 10 times their original number. There are reports of many young men volunteering to fight for Isis when they were in the full flood of success in the summer. This enthusiasm may have ebbed since the US started air strikes and the Isis run of victories ended with their failure to capture Kobani in northern Syria despite a long siege.
In an impoverished region with few jobs, Isis pay of $400 (£250) a month is also attractive. Moreover, Mr Hussein says that in the places they have conquered Isis is remodelling society in its own image, aiming to educate people into accepting Isis ideology.
A fighter jet takes off from a US war ship Reuters
The Kurds have recovered their military self-confidence in the knowledge that they are backed by the US and Iran. The peshmerga have taken back some towns lost in August, notably Zumar close to the Syrian border, but not Tal Afar and Sinjar where 8,500 Yazidis are still besieged on their mountain top. But there are limits to how far the Kurds are willing to advance even if they succeed in doing so. Mr Hussein says that the Kurds can help an Iraqi army, supposing a non-sectarian one is created, but “the Kurds cannot liberate the Sunni Arab areas”.
This is the great problem facing a counter offensive against Isis by Baghdad or the Kurds: it will be seen by the five or six million Sunni Arabs in Iraq as directed against their whole community. Hitherto, the US has been hoping to repeat its success between 2006 and 2008 in turning many Sunni against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Mr Hussein ticks off the reasons why repeating this will be very difficult: the Americans then had 150,000 soldiers in Iraq to back up anti-al-Qaeda tribal leaders. Isis will savagely punish anybody who opposes it. “We have seen what happened in Anbar to the Albu Nimr tribe [that rose up against Isis]. They stood bravely against the terrorist but 500 were killed. It was a disaster.”
Overall, Mr Hussein says he does not see any convincing sign of resistance from the Sunni Arabs. Many of them may be unhappy, particularly in Mosul, but this is not translating into effective opposition. Nor is it clear what outside force could organise resistance. The Iraqi army might be acceptable in Sunni areas but only if it is reconstituted so that is not dominated by the Shia.
At the moment, the Kurds see little sign of its presence. They have been asking for regular troops to defend the Mosul Dam on the Euphrates so they can use up to 3,000 peshmerga stationed there, but no Iraqi troops have turned up. “Those who are now defending Baghdad are the army of the [Shia] parties. To re-establish a professional army needs time.”
Mr Hussein did not say so, but it may be too late to establish a competent cross-confessional regular army in Iraq. The counter-offensive by Baghdad is led by the three main Shia militias which have almost the same ideological fervour and sectarian hatred as Isis. Any advance on the battlefield leads to the population deemed loyal to the losing side taking flight so the whole of northern Iraq has become a land of refugees.
19 Comments on "ISIS 7x Bigger Than West Believes"
PrestonSturges on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 3:58 pm
Derp derp derp
Of course the Kurds want to magnify the threat.
And of course there will be neocons here who will latch onto anything for propaganda purposes. let’s see if Cheney pops up.
Plantagenet on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 4:56 pm
Obama is providing the air force for the shia Islamic Republic militias fighting against the sunni Islamic State militants. The sunni and shia have hated each other for 1400 years—allah only knows why Obama thinks one kind of islamic fanaticism is better then the other kind of islamic fanaticism.
J-Gav on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:07 pm
OOOh, I’m skeert, aren’t you? They’ll be waltzing into your living room by the end of the year if I understand correctly.
It’s not that these phoney Allah-freaks aren’t a despicable rabble of lunatics. It’s just that we Western nations, along with our precious allies in the region, helped mightily in allowing them to come into existence in the first place!
Crush them by all means, but then quid Turkey as an energy hub for the West? And quid Iran as an ally in anti-ISIS efforts if the Assad-has-to-go meme prevails? And quid Western relations with Israel, this constantly scheming,lying,spying,paranoid and bellicose regime in the midst of it all?
Serious complications at every turn. I don’t envy statesmen (or stateswomen) who have to try and deal with it. Then again, I see very few anywhere who would qualify as ‘statespeople’ according to my criteria. But this is not the time or place to go into those …
Speculawyer on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:52 pm
ISIS recently some noise about deciding to attack Saudi Arabia. Good. I hope they do. The Saudi’s need to take some more responsibility and help clean up this mess and if they get attack, I presume they’ll have to fight back.
Plantagenet . . . no Islamic fanaticism is good. But I gotta say, I’d prefer the Shia brand of Islam where the women can drive, not cover themselves completely, and get full educations along with men over the Salafist or Wahhabist strain of the Sunni.
JuanP on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 7:23 pm
I couldn’t care less about ISIS. Circus entertainment for the sheeple is what this is. Next!
Paul D. on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 10:02 pm
Makes perfect sense. It’s easy to recruit the young and stupid!
Paul on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:23 pm
Despite the need of a great ground force in the battlefield it would be a disaster if we send American troops. The death or capture of American soldiers will boost IS recruitment and morale. The 2000 FSA that we plan to train in Turkey will make no difference however the Kurd population including Turk Kurds is more than 20 million. Kurds are the only side that will fight effectively. In another report, there are 30000 YPG battle ready army that needs heavy weapons. Why we don’t assist them instead of waiting to re-form a new Iraqi army? I understand that Turkey resists that but Turkey so far has delayed the efforts of the coalition by providing one excuse after another so screw them.
Paul on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:27 pm
oops that intended to be a separate post.
theedrich on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 5:49 am
The O creature on the DC throne and his courtiers seem not to recognize that ISIL is toppling a whole line of dominoes. Nothing breeds success like success. 90% of the religion of beheaders consists of Sunnis. As the promise of 72 virgins becomes more and more attractive for these latter (witness most recently, e.g., Hamas), we may soon be looking at a demonic uprising of many millions. Adherents of Religion of Peace in Western countries may keep Westerners themselves asleep (as our own regime wants), but the consequences might disturb our dreams a bit. (Sharia law, anyone?)
It is typical for Americans to fancy themselves detached from the rest of the world, especially now that fracking has allegedly saved our bacon. Why can’t we all just get along? Peter Kassig (lately aka Abdul Rahman) found out the hard way that not everyone in the world thinks Americanly. Like it or not, there is no way the U.S. can now keep out of this maelstrom. Politics makes strange bedfellows. America may soon find itself cuddling up not just with longtime friend IsItReal, but with the nucleating Iranians as well. The cutthroat Turks are apparently assisting ISIL under the table, as are moneyed interests in Qatar and Araby. It is self-delusion to think that after Yankeeland has destabilized almost all of MENA (thanks to Bush and O), we can simply walk away with “no boots on the ground.” America, meet history.
Davy on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 6:29 am
The US military has a fine oiled machine when it comes to the Islamist counterinsurgency. They perfected it in Afghanistan and Iraq. We know how to blunt the ISIL spear. The US military also learned they can’t be beaten when they are integrated into the civilian population and when they have safe havens.
The increase in US troops to compliment the use of the Kurds and Iraqi forces is a natural one. The US specialist can direct air strikes and do hit and runs on the leadership. The US has shown the effectiveness of targeting the leadership and high value individuals in lightning Special Forces raids. ISIL will not attain much success at this point.
Yet, ISIL, will be a future force to be reckoned with when the economy collapses and the major powers begin a pullback of force application. We know we are unable to forecast a descent scenario but I can say that any descent in energy intensity and economic activity will benefit ISIL. All these savages need to do is hang on and they win.
HARM on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 12:24 pm
“Like it or not, there is no way the U.S. can now keep out of this maelstrom.”
Says who? Dick “Halliburton” Cheney or George “Carlysle Group” Bush I & II? The best thing we can do for ourselves is stay out of ME wars. Or did the Iraq war not happen out in neo-con Amnesia Land?
“It is self-delusion to think that after Yankeeland has destabilized almost all of MENA (thanks to Bush and O), we can simply walk away with “no boots on the ground.”
When you find yourself in a hole, sanity demands that you stop digging. No foreign power has ever –and never will– resolve ME tribal conflicts over religion and tribal allegiances using military force or occupation. As others have pointed out, the Shia-Sunni conflict has been raging for ~1400 years, while the Jewish-Arab conflict has been raging for *thousands* of years. But, sure, a few well placed Tomohawk missle strikes ought to take care of that, right?
Plantagenet on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 1:18 pm
@Davy:
Your faith that the US military is “a fine oiled machine” against Islamic terrorists is nice, but that isn’t the only factor controlling the reality on the ground. Yes, the US military did a nice job combating both sunni and shia terrorists in Iraq up to 2009, but then O walked away from it in 2010 and it all collapsed. Similarly, the US military has done a good job in Afghanistan, but obama is walking away from Afghanistan in 2014, and the taliban is taking over regions and districts shortly after the US leaves.
Its not enough to have a superb military—-you have to have superb political leadership and a superb strategy as well, and that is something the US is currently short of.
GregT on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 2:30 pm
Nice try Plant.
The US military’s meddling in the ME is what created ISIS. Iraq was once held together by a dictatorship. Anyone that has been paying attention for the last decade or so, saw this coming. The plan all along was destabilization.
Mission accomplished.
JuanP on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 3:05 pm
Greg, I saw this coming in Iraq since before the war started. I knew that it would become a mess forever, break up in pieces, and the quality of life would brutally deteriorate. IMO, it was the only possible outcome. Countries that break down at this time in history will never be repaired.
Just give Ukraine 10 or 20 years and they will catch up with Iraq, too. Ukraine will become the first white European failed state.
Plantagenet on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 4:22 pm
@GregT
Of course Iraq was once held together by a dictatorship. So was Nazi Germany. So was Imperial Japan. So was the USSR. So
What? The US has opposed militaristic fascist aggressive dictatorships like these for the last century.
GregT on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 4:32 pm
Uh Plant,
The US also supports militaristic fascist aggressive dictatorships, and assists in their installations. Like they did with Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Sorry Plant, once again, you do not get it.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 6:15 pm
Plant you should get off the internet for a few months and plant your ass at a library. Here is a list of all the countries your peace loving government has been and the shit they have disturbed. It’s from last year so it does not include Vicky (fuck the EU) Nuland and the 5 billion US funding of a coup of another democratically elected government;Ukraine.
http://www.countercurrents.org/polya050713.htm
theedrich on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 4:43 am
The issue is not America having a “finely oiled machine” or some other card up its sleeve. The issue is the fact that America is no longer a fortress unto itself. Quite apart from the fact that the American public wants to watch TV and forget about the other nine tenths of the planet, the U.S. depends on vassals far and near to maintain its hegemony. At the beginning of the first Gulf war, it was Colin Powell, I believe, who said something to the effect that if you broke Iraq, you would have to fix it. Well, Iraq and Syria are now so broken due to U.S. “good intentions” that they can never again be fixed. After next month, Afghan suicidists will begin retaking Afghanistan the same way North Vietnam took over South Vietnam when the American electorate and Congress decided to abandon the South. All this has nothing to do with Dick Cheny or any other bête noires of the Lefties. Quite apart from Peak Oil, America is psychologically exhausted, self-absorbed, half drugged and increasingly effeminate. Just ask Jonathan Gruber what his ilk really thinks about the country. And with O’s forthcoming amnesty of millions of undocumented Democrats, we will soon have a nation with one-party rule — to make us perfect, of course. Maybe the Mohammedan beheaders will love us then.
dashster on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 6:18 am
“while the Jewish-Arab conflict has been raging for *thousands* ”
Not true. The Jews had been displaced to Europe (and small parts of North Africa and Asia) for thousands of years. It was only after the Zionism movement started in the 1900’s that European Jews began moving to areas that are now part of Israel.